July 1 Predictions

[JSD]

It depends on what the cap is...

Bulls have 22 mil committed...   What's the cap set at?  54?  That would give them 32 mil in cap room...   enough to perfectly offer two max contracts if they sign another team's player.  Bosh gets 16 mil... Johnson gets 16 mil... then they trade Deng, James Johnson and Taj Gibson to Cleveland for LeBron with a starting salary of 17.2 million (James gets extra cash from the sign-and-trade by signing with his own team)

Obviously this would all be worked out in advance... James would commit first, but that's how they would work it out.

Cleveland won't allow Bron the S&T option. Right now being able to offer the most money is their only leverage.

... they are lying.  Like you said... that's their only leverage.   On July 1st when Bron comes to them and says, "hey... either I'm signing with the Bulls for 16 mil... or you can have Luol Deng and give me 17.2 mil", do you really think they'll say no?

Deng is 25 and averages 17 points and 7 while playing solid defense.  He's signed for 4 years with a starting salary of 11.5 million.   Is that really a bad contract?  

I think they'll stay true to their word, save money and set precedent for the future. I also think there is better value in the market than Deng and his contract, so why help out an opponent? He won't take the Cavs passed the first round of the playoffs.

When Cleveland loses Lebron, they'll go the opposite direction and blow it up.

[MMacOH]

Bron and Bosh in Cleveland both on real maximum contracts.  Bosh comes in a sign and trade from Toronto for Varejao, Hickson, Delonte and Jamison.  The Cavs take on TurkeyGlues contract to help Toronto out

[KCattheStripe]

Bron and Bosh in Cleveland both on real maximum contracts.  Bosh comes in a sign and trade from Toronto for Varejao, Hickson, Delonte and Jamison.  The Cavs take on TurkeyGlues contract to help Toronto out

Oh man. What drugs exactly are they giving out in Cleveland? 

[LarBrd33]

It depends on what the cap is...

Bulls have 22 mil committed...   What's the cap set at?  54?  That would give them 32 mil in cap room...   enough to perfectly offer two max contracts if they sign another team's player.  Bosh gets 16 mil... Johnson gets 16 mil... then they trade Deng, James Johnson and Taj Gibson to Cleveland for LeBron with a starting salary of 17.2 million (James gets extra cash from the sign-and-trade by signing with his own team)

Obviously this would all be worked out in advance... James would commit first, but that's how they would work it out.

Cleveland won't allow Bron the S&T option. Right now being able to offer the most money is their only leverage.

... they are lying.  Like you said... that's their only leverage.   On July 1st when Bron comes to them and says, "hey... either I'm signing with the Bulls for 16 mil... or you can have Luol Deng and give me 17.2 mil", do you really think they'll say no?

Deng is 25 and averages 17 points and 7 while playing solid defense.  He's signed for 4 years with a starting salary of 11.5 million.   Is that really a bad contract?

In what scenario is a market like Atlanta, Cleveland or Toronto going to land a player like Deng for a contract starting at 11.5 million?   What are they holding out for... Kevin Durant?  Come on...   

You're making the mistake of thinking of a sign and trade as a basketball decision. Gilbert isn't going to pay ridiculous amounts of money for a team whose best players are Deng and Antwan Jamison, he'd rather let LeBron walk and save the money.

Fine... he lets Bron walk.   That still leaves the possibility of Toronto or Atlanta willing to take Deng.  Is Toronto the type of team that usually turns down assets?  I think they take what they can get. 

[JSD]

It depends on what the cap is...

Bulls have 22 mil committed...   What's the cap set at?  54?  That would give them 32 mil in cap room...   enough to perfectly offer two max contracts if they sign another team's player.  Bosh gets 16 mil... Johnson gets 16 mil... then they trade Deng, James Johnson and Taj Gibson to Cleveland for LeBron with a starting salary of 17.2 million (James gets extra cash from the sign-and-trade by signing with his own team)

Obviously this would all be worked out in advance... James would commit first, but that's how they would work it out.

Cleveland won't allow Bron the S&T option. Right now being able to offer the most money is their only leverage.

... they are lying.  Like you said... that's their only leverage.   On July 1st when Bron comes to them and says, "hey... either I'm signing with the Bulls for 16 mil... or you can have Luol Deng and give me 17.2 mil", do you really think they'll say no?

Deng is 25 and averages 17 points and 7 while playing solid defense.  He's signed for 4 years with a starting salary of 11.5 million.   Is that really a bad contract?

In what scenario is a market like Atlanta, Cleveland or Toronto going to land a player like Deng for a contract starting at 11.5 million?   What are they holding out for... Kevin Durant?  Come on...   

You're making the mistake of thinking of a sign and trade as a basketball decision. Gilbert isn't going to pay ridiculous amounts of money for a team whose best players are Deng and Antwan Jamison, he'd rather let LeBron walk and save the money.

Fine... he lets Bron walk.   That still leaves the possibility of Toronto or Atlanta willing to take Deng.  Is Toronto the type of team that usually turns down assets?  I think they take what they can get. 

I'd be shocked if Chicago was able to sign JJ, Bron and Bosh. To be honest, I'm not even sure they'd want to. There's only one basketball for God sakes. Deng and his contract will allow Chicago to fill out their bench and become an instant contender in the East.

[LarBrd33]

It depends on what the cap is...

Bulls have 22 mil committed...   What's the cap set at?  54?  That would give them 32 mil in cap room...   enough to perfectly offer two max contracts if they sign another team's player.  Bosh gets 16 mil... Johnson gets 16 mil... then they trade Deng, James Johnson and Taj Gibson to Cleveland for LeBron with a starting salary of 17.2 million (James gets extra cash from the sign-and-trade by signing with his own team)

Obviously this would all be worked out in advance... James would commit first, but that's how they would work it out.

Cleveland won't allow Bron the S&T option. Right now being able to offer the most money is their only leverage.

... they are lying.  Like you said... that's their only leverage.   On July 1st when Bron comes to them and says, "hey... either I'm signing with the Bulls for 16 mil... or you can have Luol Deng and give me 17.2 mil", do you really think they'll say no?

Deng is 25 and averages 17 points and 7 while playing solid defense.  He's signed for 4 years with a starting salary of 11.5 million.   Is that really a bad contract?

In what scenario is a market like Atlanta, Cleveland or Toronto going to land a player like Deng for a contract starting at 11.5 million?   What are they holding out for... Kevin Durant?  Come on...   

You're making the mistake of thinking of a sign and trade as a basketball decision. Gilbert isn't going to pay ridiculous amounts of money for a team whose best players are Deng and Antwan Jamison, he'd rather let LeBron walk and save the money.

Fine... he lets Bron walk.   That still leaves the possibility of Toronto or Atlanta willing to take Deng.  Is Toronto the type of team that usually turns down assets?  I think they take what they can get. 

Btw... Dan Gilbert would be some kind of idiot if he actually would rather let Bron walk than take back Deng.  In what magical universe is Cleveland going to land a player of Deng's level for a contract as reasonable as 11.5 mil starting salary?  Rashard Lewis plays in sunny Orlando and makes 20 mil.  I'd rather have Deng than Lewis regardless of contract.  But say he's a fool and would rather get zero assets in return... I'm sure Toronto or Atlanta would run with it.

Deng isn't an albatross.   That guy is solid and young.

[JSD]

It depends on what the cap is...

Bulls have 22 mil committed...   What's the cap set at?  54?  That would give them 32 mil in cap room...   enough to perfectly offer two max contracts if they sign another team's player.  Bosh gets 16 mil... Johnson gets 16 mil... then they trade Deng, James Johnson and Taj Gibson to Cleveland for LeBron with a starting salary of 17.2 million (James gets extra cash from the sign-and-trade by signing with his own team)

Obviously this would all be worked out in advance... James would commit first, but that's how they would work it out.

Cleveland won't allow Bron the S&T option. Right now being able to offer the most money is their only leverage.

... they are lying.  Like you said... that's their only leverage.   On July 1st when Bron comes to them and says, "hey... either I'm signing with the Bulls for 16 mil... or you can have Luol Deng and give me 17.2 mil", do you really think they'll say no?

Deng is 25 and averages 17 points and 7 while playing solid defense.  He's signed for 4 years with a starting salary of 11.5 million.   Is that really a bad contract?

In what scenario is a market like Atlanta, Cleveland or Toronto going to land a player like Deng for a contract starting at 11.5 million?   What are they holding out for... Kevin Durant?  Come on...   

You're making the mistake of thinking of a sign and trade as a basketball decision. Gilbert isn't going to pay ridiculous amounts of money for a team whose best players are Deng and Antwan Jamison, he'd rather let LeBron walk and save the money.

Fine... he lets Bron walk.   That still leaves the possibility of Toronto or Atlanta willing to take Deng.  Is Toronto the type of team that usually turns down assets?  I think they take what they can get. 

Btw... Dan Gilbert would be some kind of idiot if he actually would rather let Bron walk than take back Deng.  In what magical universe is Cleveland going to land a player of Deng's level for a contract as reasonable as 11.5 mil starting salary?  Rashard Lewis plays in sunny Orlando and makes 20 mil.  I'd rather have Deng than Lewis regardless of contract.  But say he's a fool and would rather get zero assets in return... I'm sure Toronto or Atlanta would run with it.

Deng isn't an albatross.   That guy is solid and young.

Yes but through the Draft Lottery.

[LarBrd33]

It depends on what the cap is...

Bulls have 22 mil committed...   What's the cap set at?  54?  That would give them 32 mil in cap room...   enough to perfectly offer two max contracts if they sign another team's player.  Bosh gets 16 mil... Johnson gets 16 mil... then they trade Deng, James Johnson and Taj Gibson to Cleveland for LeBron with a starting salary of 17.2 million (James gets extra cash from the sign-and-trade by signing with his own team)

Obviously this would all be worked out in advance... James would commit first, but that's how they would work it out.

Cleveland won't allow Bron the S&T option. Right now being able to offer the most money is their only leverage.

... they are lying.  Like you said... that's their only leverage.   On July 1st when Bron comes to them and says, "hey... either I'm signing with the Bulls for 16 mil... or you can have Luol Deng and give me 17.2 mil", do you really think they'll say no?

Deng is 25 and averages 17 points and 7 while playing solid defense.  He's signed for 4 years with a starting salary of 11.5 million.   Is that really a bad contract?

In what scenario is a market like Atlanta, Cleveland or Toronto going to land a player like Deng for a contract starting at 11.5 million?   What are they holding out for... Kevin Durant?  Come on...   

You're making the mistake of thinking of a sign and trade as a basketball decision. Gilbert isn't going to pay ridiculous amounts of money for a team whose best players are Deng and Antwan Jamison, he'd rather let LeBron walk and save the money.

Fine... he lets Bron walk.   That still leaves the possibility of Toronto or Atlanta willing to take Deng.  Is Toronto the type of team that usually turns down assets?  I think they take what they can get. 

Btw... Dan Gilbert would be some kind of idiot if he actually would rather let Bron walk than take back Deng.  In what magical universe is Cleveland going to land a player of Deng's level for a contract as reasonable as 11.5 mil starting salary?  Rashard Lewis plays in sunny Orlando and makes 20 mil.  I'd rather have Deng than Lewis regardless of contract.  But say he's a fool and would rather get zero assets in return... I'm sure Toronto or Atlanta would run with it.

Deng isn't an albatross.   That guy is solid and young.

Yes but through the Draft Lottery.

Regardless if the Raptors, Cavs or Hawks are willing to take on Deng... I have reason to believe the clippers would.

This was a pre-draft rumor on ESPN:

"The Clippers may trade their No. 8 pick to Chicago for Luol Deng and the Bulls' 17th pick, according to a source that spoke with Chris Broussard.

Broussard later spoke with a rep from one of the clubs and was told it is not going to happen.

RealGM Note: This trade could not be completed on draft night due to the Clippers needing to use their cap space to absorb Deng's contract"

Say Bron, Bosh and Johnson all have a pact to join the Bulls... the Clippers could just absorb the contract of Deng for a 2nd rounder and the Bulls could make it happen.

Btw... Deng on the Clippers makes perfect sense.  They have a hole at SF.   It would give them PG - Baron Davis, SG - Eric Gordon, SF - Deng, PF - Griffin, C - Kaman ... After they do their due diligence in exploring the LeBron-to-Clippers pipe dream... I can totally see them taking on Deng.

[Moranis]

The Cavs are not going to sign and trade Lebron unless they can also unload Jamison and/or Williams in the process (or get some legitimate value back in return, which I don't consider Deng high enough).  That is the only way it makes sense for Cleveland since they are going to be bad with no hope for truly getting better until they get rid of the dead weight.  

[KCattheStripe]

It depends on what the cap is...

Bulls have 22 mil committed...   What's the cap set at?  54?  That would give them 32 mil in cap room...   enough to perfectly offer two max contracts if they sign another team's player.  Bosh gets 16 mil... Johnson gets 16 mil... then they trade Deng, James Johnson and Taj Gibson to Cleveland for LeBron with a starting salary of 17.2 million (James gets extra cash from the sign-and-trade by signing with his own team)

Obviously this would all be worked out in advance... James would commit first, but that's how they would work it out.

Cleveland won't allow Bron the S&T option. Right now being able to offer the most money is their only leverage.

... they are lying.  Like you said... that's their only leverage.   On July 1st when Bron comes to them and says, "hey... either I'm signing with the Bulls for 16 mil... or you can have Luol Deng and give me 17.2 mil", do you really think they'll say no?

Deng is 25 and averages 17 points and 7 while playing solid defense.  He's signed for 4 years with a starting salary of 11.5 million.   Is that really a bad contract?

In what scenario is a market like Atlanta, Cleveland or Toronto going to land a player like Deng for a contract starting at 11.5 million?   What are they holding out for... Kevin Durant?  Come on...   

You're making the mistake of thinking of a sign and trade as a basketball decision. Gilbert isn't going to pay ridiculous amounts of money for a team whose best players are Deng and Antwan Jamison, he'd rather let LeBron walk and save the money.

Fine... he lets Bron walk.   That still leaves the possibility of Toronto or Atlanta willing to take Deng.  Is Toronto the type of team that usually turns down assets?  I think they take what they can get. 

Btw... Dan Gilbert would be some kind of idiot if he actually would rather let Bron walk than take back Deng.  In what magical universe is Cleveland going to land a player of Deng's level for a contract as reasonable as 11.5 mil starting salary?  Rashard Lewis plays in sunny Orlando and makes 20 mil.  I'd rather have Deng than Lewis regardless of contract.  But say he's a fool and would rather get zero assets in return... I'm sure Toronto or Atlanta would run with it.

Deng isn't an albatross.   That guy is solid and young.

Yes but through the Draft Lottery.

Regardless if the Raptors, Cavs or Hawks are willing to take on Deng... I have reason to believe the clippers would.

This was a pre-draft rumor on ESPN:

"The Clippers may trade their No. 8 pick to Chicago for Luol Deng and the Bulls' 17th pick, according to a source that spoke with Chris Broussard.

Broussard later spoke with a rep from one of the clubs and was told it is not going to happen.

RealGM Note: This trade could not be completed on draft night due to the Clippers needing to use their cap space to absorb Deng's contract"

Say Bron, Bosh and Johnson all have a pact to join the Bulls... the Clippers could just absorb the contract of Deng for a 2nd rounder and the Bulls could make it happen.

Btw... Deng on the Clippers makes perfect sense.  They have a hole at SF.   It would give them PG - Baron Davis, SG - Eric Gordon, SF - Deng, PF - Griffin, C - Kaman ... After they do their due diligence in exploring the LeBron-to-Clippers pipe dream... I can totally see them taking on Deng.

Deng to LAC is an entirely diferent situation though as that team is building whereas the Cavs if they lose LeBron would essentially have to start over, in that case paying 11 mil a year to Deng is an albatross.

[JSD]

I agree that if LAC can't sign Lebron or Pierce than absorbing Deng makes perfect sense. The Bulls could then fill out their roster with the additional space, but it wouldn't be enough for 3 max guys.

[LarBrd33]

I agree that if LAC can't sign Lebron or Pierce than absorbing Deng makes perfect sense. The Bulls could then fill out their roster with the additional space, but it wouldn't be enough for 3 max guys.

Depends what the cap is set at, but you might be right.   They could sign 3 max contracts if they used Deng as a sign-and-trade... but if they just gave away Deng it would be tough.

They would have something like 11 mil under contract.   If the cap is 54 that leaves 42 mil.  Split 3 ways is 14 mil.   If you gave Bosh 16 and Bron 16... that only leaves around 10 million to offer Joe Johnson.   If the Bulls were also able to get the Clippers to take James Johnson and Taj Gibson... they would have an additional 3 million to play with... 16 for Bron, 16 for Bosh... 13 for Joe Johnson?... would any of them be willing to leave money on the table and take 15 mil each?

Maybe that scenario is where the Ray Allen's name starts popping up.  If I'm Chicago i'd rather just hang onto Deng than bring in Ray, though.

[Birdbrain]

Bosh to Miami w/ Wade - Still poor defensively but a good 50 win team.

The HEat were one of the better defensive teams last year and they won 45 games,  so adding Bosh only makes them 5 games better?

I didn't consider Miami very good defensively and IMO, Bosh is a slightly better version of David Lee. 

[Fafnir]

Bosh to Miami w/ Wade - Still poor defensively but a good 50 win team.

The HEat were one of the better defensive teams last year and they won 45 games,  so adding Bosh only makes them 5 games better?

I didn't consider Miami very good defensively and IMO, Bosh is a slightly better version of David Lee. 

Miami was a rather good defensive team.

They were were 2nd in the league in eFG%, 7th in points per 100 possesions, and 8th best at forcing turnovers.

[Birdbrain]

Bosh to Miami w/ Wade - Still poor defensively but a good 50 win team.

The HEat were one of the better defensive teams last year and they won 45 games,  so adding Bosh only makes them 5 games better?

I didn't consider Miami very good defensively and IMO, Bosh is a slightly better version of David Lee. 

Miami was a rather good defensive team.

They were were 2nd in the league in eFG%, 7th in points per 100 possesions, and 8th best at forcing turnovers.

Thanks for the stats which tend to be misleading.  I think that was more of how they play than good defense but, my main point was adding Bosh is of no great consequence.  It's not like they they would be title contenders with him.  They are still about 5th best in East.