July 1 Predictions

[Birdbrain]

LJ to Cleveland - He wants to be like the uber great and build his own franchise - See Bird, Magic, MJ.

Bosh to Miami w/ Wade - Still poor defensively but a good 50 win team.

JJ to Chicago - This team should make a move to good 50 win team and might end up better than Cleveland which would be ironic.

Stoudamire to NY - Because he never appeared to care about winning in the first place.

[greenhead85]

Just to correct my earlier post. No Nocioni and Hawes anymore but SacTown has Dalembert on board. That's a formidable frontline. LBJ will be accomodated by the Maloofs, I guess.

Just my take on July 1.

[Spilling Green Dye]

I see free agency going down as follows:

-Celtics resign Scalabrine for his "brain type".
-Lebron signs in Chicago.
-Celtics resign Marquis Daniels b/c he has a "high bball IQ".
-Celtics let Ray Allen walk b/c Dana Barros comes out of retirement to play next season.
-Amare Stoudamire goes to Miami.  Beasely gets traded.
-Celtics sign Sherm "The Worm" Douglas to backup Rondo.
-One of Manute Bol's sons plays center for the Celtics next year.
-Antoine Walker works his way back into the NBA, only to play for the Nets.
-Chris Paul gets traded.
-Kevin Garnett gains 3 pounds of fat.
-Chris Bosh signs in New York.

[screwedupmaniac]

-Kevin Garnett gains 3 pounds of fat.

Well, I guess we know who we're starting at center in Perk's place

[Evantime34]

Chicago: Bosh and Lebron
Miami: Wade, Amare, Joe Johnson

New York Knicks: screwed

[LarBrd33]

prediction:   If Bron and Bosh end up in Chicago... so will Joe Johnson.

Deng ends up in Atlanta, Toronto or Cleveland in a sign-and-trade deal to bring back one of the three.

If the Bulls package Deng, Taj Gibson and James Johnson... I believe they can take back 17.6 mil in salary...

[Evantime34]

prediction:   If Bron and Bosh end up in Chicago... so will Joe Johnson.

But if they signed Bron and Bosh to max deals Johnson would have to sign a tiny deal to play with them.

If he signed with Wade and Amare in Miami then he could get a fair market value deal.

[LarBrd33]

prediction:   If Bron and Bosh end up in Chicago... so will Joe Johnson.

But if they signed Bron and Bosh to max deals Johnson would have to sign a tiny deal to play with them.

If he signed with Wade and Amare in Miami then he could get a fair market value deal.

Wrong... see above...

If the Bulls package Deng, Taj Gibson and James Johnson... I believe they can take back 17.6 mil in salary...

They could give Bosh and Johnson max deals... and then Bron could make even more in a sign-and-trade.  (or some iteration of that idea)

Which team turns down Luol Deng when they are about to lose their star?... Atlanta?  Cleveland?  Toronto? .... yeah... didn't think so.

[JSD]

prediction:   If Bron and Bosh end up in Chicago... so will Joe Johnson.

But if they signed Bron and Bosh to max deals Johnson would have to sign a tiny deal to play with them.

If he signed with Wade and Amare in Miami then he could get a fair market value deal.

Wrong... see above...

If the Bulls package Deng, Taj Gibson and James Johnson... I believe they can take back 17.6 mil in salary...

They could give Bosh and Johnson max deals... and then Bron could make even more in a sign-and-trade.  (or some iteration of that idea)

Which team turns down Luol Deng when they are about to lose their star?... Atlanta?  Cleveland?  Toronto? .... yeah... didn't think so.

A team concerned about the upcoming CBA? Deng isn't exactly good value with that huge contract.

[LarBrd33]

It depends on what the cap is...

Bulls have 22 mil committed...   What's the cap set at?  54?  That would give them 32 mil in cap room...   enough to perfectly offer two max contracts if they sign another team's player.  Bosh gets 16 mil... Johnson gets 16 mil... then they trade Deng, James Johnson and Taj Gibson to Cleveland for LeBron with a starting salary of 17.2 million (James gets extra cash from the sign-and-trade by signing with his own team)

Obviously this would all be worked out in advance... James would commit first, but that's how they would work it out.

Actually... if a team has cap room do they need to even send anything back in sign-and-trade?   Maybe the Cavs sign Bron at 17.2 mil and then trade him to the Bulls for nothing... get a 2nd rounder for their cooperation.  Then maybe they sign Joe Johnson with what is left over... (14 mil?)... and bring in Bosh in a sign-and-trade where the Deng package goes to Toronto.    James and Bosh both get the 17.2 mil... Joe Johnson gets slightly less.

 

[KCattheStripe]

Bosh to Miami w/ Wade - Still poor defensively but a good 50 win team.

The HEat were one of the better defensive teams last year and they won 45 games,  so adding Bosh only makes them 5 games better?

[JSD]

It depends on what the cap is...

Bulls have 22 mil committed...   What's the cap set at?  54?  That would give them 32 mil in cap room...   enough to perfectly offer two max contracts if they sign another team's player.  Bosh gets 16 mil... Johnson gets 16 mil... then they trade Deng, James Johnson and Taj Gibson to Cleveland for LeBron with a starting salary of 17.2 million (James gets extra cash from the sign-and-trade by signing with his own team)

Obviously this would all be worked out in advance... James would commit first, but that's how they would work it out.

Cleveland won't allow Bron the S&T option. Right now being able to offer the most money is their only leverage.

[LarBrd33]

It depends on what the cap is...

Bulls have 22 mil committed...   What's the cap set at?  54?  That would give them 32 mil in cap room...   enough to perfectly offer two max contracts if they sign another team's player.  Bosh gets 16 mil... Johnson gets 16 mil... then they trade Deng, James Johnson and Taj Gibson to Cleveland for LeBron with a starting salary of 17.2 million (James gets extra cash from the sign-and-trade by signing with his own team)

Obviously this would all be worked out in advance... James would commit first, but that's how they would work it out.

Cleveland won't allow Bron the S&T option. Right now being able to offer the most money is their only leverage.

... they are lying.  Like you said... that's their only leverage.   On July 1st when Bron comes to them and says, "hey... either I'm signing with the Bulls for 16 mil... or you can have Luol Deng and give me 17.2 mil", do you really think they'll say no?

Deng is 25 and averages 17 points and 7 while playing solid defense.  He's signed for 4 years with a starting salary of 11.5 million.   Is that really a bad contract?

In what scenario is a market like Atlanta, Cleveland or Toronto going to land a player like Deng for a contract starting at 11.5 million?   What are they holding out for... Kevin Durant?  Come on...   

[CelticSooner]

Cleveland will have no choice to accept a sign and trade or else they get nothing.

Here's how I think things will go this summer.

Chicago

LeBron and Bosh

Miami

Wade and Amare

NY

Joe Johnson and Boozer


Dirk? Your guess is as good as mine.

[KCattheStripe]

It depends on what the cap is...

Bulls have 22 mil committed...   What's the cap set at?  54?  That would give them 32 mil in cap room...   enough to perfectly offer two max contracts if they sign another team's player.  Bosh gets 16 mil... Johnson gets 16 mil... then they trade Deng, James Johnson and Taj Gibson to Cleveland for LeBron with a starting salary of 17.2 million (James gets extra cash from the sign-and-trade by signing with his own team)

Obviously this would all be worked out in advance... James would commit first, but that's how they would work it out.

Cleveland won't allow Bron the S&T option. Right now being able to offer the most money is their only leverage.

... they are lying.  Like you said... that's their only leverage.   On July 1st when Bron comes to them and says, "hey... either I'm signing with the Bulls for 16 mil... or you can have Luol Deng and give me 17.2 mil", do you really think they'll say no?

Deng is 25 and averages 17 points and 7 while playing solid defense.  He's signed for 4 years with a starting salary of 11.5 million.   Is that really a bad contract?

In what scenario is a market like Atlanta, Cleveland or Toronto going to land a player like Deng for a contract starting at 11.5 million?   What are they holding out for... Kevin Durant?  Come on...   

You're making the mistake of thinking of a sign and trade as a basketball decision. Gilbert isn't going to pay ridiculous amounts of money for a team whose best players are Deng and Antwan Jamison, he'd rather let LeBron walk and save the money.