Win or lose the off season of change is upon us.

[nickagneta]

Whether the Celtics win it all tomorrow night or whether they don't I believe Danny Ainge has already decided which direction to proceed with in the upcoming off season. And that direction is going to mean lots of change and a transition to a different style of personnel and style of ball being played in Boston.

Rumors are already swirling of Ray Allen looking elsewhere, Ray being coveted elsewhere and Danny not wanting to re-sign Ray. The Daily News reported:

Sources close to the Celtics' veteran shooting guard say that he's not exactly thrilled that Rajon Rondo is playing a more prominent role in the offense, and is looking at Miami as a potential destination. Bosh has long been rumored to be leaving Toronto to go to the Heat, which intends to re-sign Wade and has enough cap space to land Bosh with a maximum-salary deal.

Link

Chris Mannix has stated on WEEI that Ray Allen's price tag might be to high for what Danny Ainge wants to pay. Rumors have several unnamed GM's as saying Danny isn't looking to resign Ray.

So all things being equal, his return is far from a given.

Also the Celtics have Brian Scalabrine, Tony Allen, Nate Robinson, Shelden Williams, Marquis Daniels, Tony Gaffney and Oliver Lafayette to make decisions on. I think it's probably a given that at least 4 of these guys will not be back and possibly all of them could not be here next year. I don't see one single player in this group getting anything more than a two year, $2.5 million-$3 million per year deal and even then I only see Tony and Nate getting those offers. Thing is, that might not be enough for them and they could decide to walk.

Then one has to factor in Kendrick Perkins. He will be working on the last year of his deal and now will probably be coming off an off season rehabbing a major injury. His status is about as up in the air as it gets but given he will be an expiring contract and owning his Bird rights might interest someone and given he might be a bit pricey for a Celtic team that will be in full rebuilding mode in as early as the 2010-11 season and as late as the 2012-13 season, perk may not be in the long term plans here.

And then we have the draft. This is a deep draft and rumors are again out and about of teams looking to sell or trade picks. In a very deep draft and in a year where Danny might be looking to add young assets to build the future with, is it unheard of that the Celtics could have as many as three rookies on the fifteen man roster next year? I think 2 rookies is a given. I think three very possible and I would not rule out three rookies and an NBDL prospect either.

I think the only thing we can be 100% sure of is that Rajon Rondo, Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce, Glen Davis and Rasheed Wallace will be back. Heck, I take that back. I'm not even 100% sure Baby and Sheed won't be traded though I think the C's value Davis a ton and Wallace's contract makes him extremely difficult to trade. So I guess the real only thing we can be 100% sure of is Rondo, Pierce and KG will be back.

Then there's the Doc Rivers situation. No one is sure but Doc Rivers might be the most likely prominent person associated with this team not to return. He might be semi burned out. he might want to go watch his kids do what kids do. He might want the stress free paycheck of TNT. Only he really knows for sure and his potential departure might just enhance the chances of some veteran or veterans not wanting to return.

There will be lots of stuff to talk about this off season, that is for sure. But I guarantee this, the team that returns to the court in October, is apt to be very different than the one we watch tomorrow night. The off season of change is about to begin.

[celticinorlando]

i think boston is going to bite the bullet and make a real effort to get younger. i do believe ray is going to be gone. the bench will need to be totally overhauled. the Cs need to get 2 or 3 guys in the draft that can contribute ASAP (none of this bill walker/giddens crap). i think if boston wins doc returns. if they dont...he goes.

[Prof. Clutch]

Bold predictions, but I think you're right Nick.  But if the C's don't sign Ray, who steps in as a starting level 2 guard on this team?  That worries me quite a bit.

[celticinorlando]

Bold predictions, but I think you're right Nick.  But if the C's don't sign Ray, who steps in as a starting level 2 guard on this team?  That worries me quite a bit.

is there even a SG out there on ray's level? 

[Jaycelt]

 I refuse to even think about any of this while we have game 7 looming.  There will be plenty of time once the season is over to focus on next year.

[housecall]

Strengthen the bench

[Drucci]

I agree that there will be changes but, to me, the Ray rumor doesn't make any sense.

If Ray isn't thrilled that Rondo has a more prominent role in the offense, why would he sign with Miami, where Wade and (potentially) Bosh would get all the shots and run the majority of the offense?

Anyway, my focus is on game 7 right now, we will have plenty of time this summer to discuss about the offseason - win or lose tomorrow night.

[Prof. Clutch]

Bold predictions, but I think you're right Nick.  But if the C's don't sign Ray, who steps in as a starting level 2 guard on this team?  That worries me quite a bit.

is there even a SG out there on ray's level? 

Yes, but there's no way for us to sign Joe Johnson.

[KungPoweChicken]

Would anyone trade Perkins for James Harden straight up? The Thunder are committed to defense and need a starting big man. We need a shooting guard of the future. Who would make this deal?

[FallGuy]

Would anyone trade Perkins for James Harden straight up? The Thunder are committed to defense and need a starting big man. We need a shooting guard of the future. Who would make this deal?

Huh.

I like Harden but he's got an old man's game. Not exactly the run 'n' gun athlete I'd like to pair with Rondo.

[KungPoweChicken]

Would anyone trade Perkins for James Harden straight up? The Thunder are committed to defense and need a starting big man. We need a shooting guard of the future. Who would make this deal?

Huh.

I like Harden but he's got an old man's game. Not exactly the run 'n' gun athlete I'd like to pair with Rondo.

True, he does play like an old man, but it's not like Perk will be bringing in the cream of the crop, especially after this injury.

[blackbird]

I think the only thing we can be 100% sure of is that Rajon Rondo, Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce, Glen Davis and Rasheed Wallace will be back. Heck, I take that back. I'm not even 100% sure Baby and Sheed won't be traded though I think the C's value Davis a ton and Wallace's contract makes him extremely difficult to trade. So I guess the real only thing we can be 100% sure of is Rondo, Pierce and KG will be back.

I don't think it's 100% guaranteed that Pierce will be back. Pretty much all of the players who can opt out of their deals are going to do it and lock up a new deal before the new collective bargaining agreement comes into effect.

I could see him opting out and some team like the Clippers who don't get LeBron offering Pierce a silly contract. Not max level, but more than the Celtics are willing to match.

[Yakmanev]

I think the only thing we can be 100% sure of is that Rajon Rondo, Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce, Glen Davis and Rasheed Wallace will be back. Heck, I take that back. I'm not even 100% sure Baby and Sheed won't be traded though I think the C's value Davis a ton and Wallace's contract makes him extremely difficult to trade. So I guess the real only thing we can be 100% sure of is Rondo, Pierce and KG will be back.

I don't think it's 100% guaranteed that Pierce will be back. Pretty much all of the players who can opt out of their deals are going to do it and lock up a new deal before the new collective bargaining agreement comes into effect.

I could see him opting out and some team like the Clippers who don't get LeBron offering Pierce a silly contract. Not max level, but more than the Celtics are willing to match.

I think ownership will force Danny Ainge's hand to match any offer for Pierce, after all it's their money they would have the final say on all the price tag stuff.

[aporel#18]

Bold predictions, but I think you're right Nick.  But if the C's don't sign Ray, who steps in as a starting level 2 guard on this team?  That worries me quite a bit.

is there even a SG out there on ray's level? 

Yes, but there's no way for us to sign Joe Johnson.

I don't think Joe Johnson is a better fit than Ray Allen. I don't expect any team to offer Ray more than the Celtics. If Miami resigns Wade and signs Bosh, they'd have 5 players under contract at 45 millions. If they offered Ray 10 millions a year, they'd be over the cap and they'd need to sign at least 7 players to the required 13 roster minimum.

Ray will get 10 millions a year, that's in the middle of Kidd and Nash kind of money. And the Celtics could offer him 2 years and after that, him and KG could sign year-by-year to retire as celtics. Nobody is going to trade for them at this stage, and it's highly improbable that any team pays Ray more than the MLE, unless it's a sign and trade.

The sad thing is Perk's injury will ruin his expectations to get Rondo's money, I feel bad for him. That could mean the Celtics extend him to 6-7 millions a year.

Don't expect huge changes over the next 2 years, I think Danny is going to draft future assets to reload in the summer of 2012, when Rondo and Perk enter their primes. Glen Davis, TA, Nate and the rookies could be good trading pieces by then, and maybe a good pick and a very good FA can boost the Celtics to another championship run.

I hope so 

But tomorrow it's all about winning game 7. Go Celtics!!! Beat LA!!!

[guava_wrench]

I don't see Pierce opting out. The guys opting out have below market contracts. Pierce's contract is above his current market value.

In fact, Pierce's contract for next year is more than Lebron or Wade can hope to get based on years in NBA.

If he opts out, I might be fine with us cutting bait on him and Ray instead of making too long of a commitment for too much money, but I don't think the market will drive up Pierce contract excessively unless he is willing to go to a bad team.