ESPN "Expert" Predictions (C's vs Magic)

[Brendan]

Anyone else notice the play matchup page is showing Rasheed as the starting PF?

[muddy02]

i like the predictions... they were 0-10 in the last series, i was hoping they'd all pick Orlando.  Wait til the Magic have a bad 3PT shooting night, all the talk will be about how they are one dimensional and that the series is over for them.

[MMacOH]

How will Boston's match ups work in this series?  Does KG follow Rashard all the way to the 3 point line?  When Carter and Nelson run the pick and roll who rotates to help then?  Does Perkins allow Howard to sit in the paint and police it?

Howard is quick enough to double KG in the post to help Rashard and still react to a pass to Perkins (unlike Shaq and Z).

The teams match up very well.   

[Chris]

How will Boston's match ups work in this series?  Does KG follow Rashard all the way to the 3 point line?  When Carter and Nelson run the pick and roll who rotates to help then?  Does Perkins allow Howard to sit in the paint and police it?

Howard is quick enough to double KG in the post to help Rashard and still react to a pass to Perkins (unlike Shaq and Z).

The teams match up very well.   

It will certainly be interesting.  The defensive system for the C's is going to have to be very different from the Cavs.  It will likely have a lot more switching than we saw against the Cavs, rather than the trapping, and racing back to the shooters.  The C's are going to have to constantly be rotating, to not allow Howard to the bucket on the pick and roll, and to then not leave a shooter open, when the defender drops down to defend that. 

More than ever, this series will come down to which team executes better.  Both team are so balanced offensively, and tough defensively, that it is going to come down to which team is able to make the extra (correct) pass, and knock down the shots, and which team makes the fewest mistakes on their rotations.

[Birdbrain]

Hollinger's stats put too much weight on the Magic's hot recent play + not enough emphasis on the individual matchup between the Orlando Magic and the Boston Celtics.

As a result, Hollinger was always going to pick the Magic to win in a short series.

Yup, not to mention, I don't think stats can represent the switch being flipped.  The C's had a terrible regular season, and that makes it very tough for them to have favorable statistical models for the post season.

Which doesn't excuse people from watching (with eyes) and realizing what they are seeing.  Which is why Hollinger has the Magic in 5.

I could careless though I just find funny that they still go with moniker of NBA expert. 

[footey]

For Miami series, he thought Miami's hot streak and Celtics snooze fest in the regular season would continue. He was wrong and he'd be the first to fess up.

Were this true, he would have given us a better shot against Cavs (picked them in 5) and Magic (picks them in 5 too). Hollinger always has an excuse when he is wrong, which is often.

[footey]

His vote aside, Broussard is a chucklehead. He's like a poor man's version of Steve Smith.

Broussard at least has the guts to give props to the Celtics following their dismantling of Cavs. He also just wrote a fantastic piece on why NBA players like Lebron could care less about the NY Knicks and MSG, which he describes as a pit.  Check it out. Don't have the link.

[Brendan]

Hollinger's stats put too much weight on the Magic's hot recent play + not enough emphasis on the individual matchup between the Orlando Magic and the Boston Celtics.

As a result, Hollinger was always going to pick the Magic to win in a short series.

Yup, not to mention, I don't think stats can represent the switch being flipped.  The C's had a terrible regular season, and that makes it very tough for them to have favorable statistical models for the post season.

Which doesn't excuse people from watching (with eyes) and realizing what they are seeing.  Which is why Hollinger has the Magic in 5.

I could careless though I just find funny that they still go with moniker of NBA expert. 

I think its nice to have a balance - one guy is stats based, another is observations based, others are hybrid. That's okay as long as its clear how the guys make their determination.

[DKClassic]

How can JA Adande and Hollinger make that prediction with a straight face.  Oh well, what else am I to expect out of the espn experts.

[jambr380]

I just don't see how the Celtics don't win. They really should have pulled it out with a 3-2 lead last year without KG (and Powe). Now, we just dismantle the best team in the NBA and are riding high, emotionally. The Magic, on the other hand, really haven't had a challenge and have been sitting around for a few days.

It's certainly possible that the Magic could win- of course, but I definitely see them going down in game 1, at least- which immediately gives Boston homecourt advantage.

[Who]

Howard is quick enough to double KG in the post to help Rashard and still react to a pass to Perkins (unlike Shaq and Z).  

Dwight Howard has done an excellent job cheating off of Perk to help Lewis out in the post against Garnett in the past.

Haven't seen it that much in recent matchups because Garnett hasn't been as aggressive (healthy) as normal against the Magic but Dwight was very effective doing that against Garnett in that first season. He made it difficult for KG to take advantage of Lewis.

And, Rashard, in his own right did an excellent job fighting Garnett for post position. Of stopping him from catching it down low and forcing KG to start further away from the rim. He eliminated several opportunities before Garnett even caught the ball because of this + the further out KG was, the easier it became for Howard to get over there in time to play good help defense.

[Lucky17]

His vote aside, Broussard is a chucklehead. He's like a poor man's version of Steve Smith.

Broussard at least has the guts to give props to the Celtics following their dismantling of Cavs. He also just wrote a fantastic piece on why NBA players like Lebron could care less about the NY Knicks and MSG, which he describes as a pit.  Check it out. Don't have the link.

I read it. Thought it was, frankly, less than fantastic. Broussard begins from a flawed premise that people think LeBron "needs to play" in New York. Of course he doesn't. Broussard just comes across as a petty Knick-basher.

I thought this was a nice rebuttal:
http://knicks.realgm.com/articles/52/20100513/debunking_broussards_flawed_anti-knick_logic/

[Birdbrain]

How can JA Adande and Hollinger make that prediction with a straight face.  Oh well, what else am I to expect out of the espn experts.

JA's is because he's a Laker homer so I can sort of excuse him.  Hollinger is hoping (which is clouding his judgment) the C's get eliminated because alternative will prove how little his formulas really mean.  He's a math geek nothing more.

Desire and Heart can't be tracked by a stat.

[guava_wrench]

I can't get worked up over the number of games. Losing in 5 doesn't mean 5 blowouts. It just means one team doesn't lose at home and goes 1-1 on the road.

Orlando has been solid, but I won't form any opinions until game 1 is over. VC's past playoff failures don't mean any more to me than the past playoff failures of the big 3 before coming together. I feel good about our chances, but we don't know how things will play out.

It should surprise no one if many people are loving Orlando right now since many people loved Orlando at the beginning of the season but cooled during the season.

[guava_wrench]

How can JA Adande and Hollinger make that prediction with a straight face.  Oh well, what else am I to expect out of the espn experts.

JA's is because he's a Laker homer so I can sort of excuse him.  Hollinger is hoping (which is clouding his judgment) the C's get eliminated because alternative will prove how little his formulas really mean.  He's a math geek nothing more.

Desire and Heart can't be tracked by a stat.

I can see your point about Hollinger.