ESPN "Expert" Predictions (C's vs Magic)

[Eddie20]

http://espn.go.com/nba/playoffs/2010/matchup/_/teams/celtics-magic

EXPERTS' PICKS

Abbott
Magic In 7

Adande
Magic In 5

Broussard
Celtics In 7

Ford
Magic In 6

Hollinger
Magic In 5

Legler
Celtics In 6

Rose
Magic In 7

Sheridan
Magic In 7

Stein
Magic In 6

Thorpe
Magic In 6


Hollinger is pretty annoying. He predicted the Cavs to beat us in 5 and for us to win in 7 vs. the Heat. I guess his secret formula doesn't say we're any good.

[Who]

Hollinger's stats put too much weight on the Magic's hot recent play + not enough emphasis on the individual matchup between the Orlando Magic and the Boston Celtics.

As a result, Hollinger was always going to pick the Magic to win in a short series.

[Edgar]

Welcome again to the bright side Legler.
You have company noe
Welcome Brussard
 

[Brendan]

Additionally historically if you think the home team will win, the most likely outcome is they will win in 5. So if Hollinger thinks Magic > Celtics, he'll pick them in 5. If he thought Magic = C's with an edge he'd pick them in 7. He's unlikely to ever pick a home team in 4 or 6 games and has explained it many times.

Agree with Who - I think his stats put too much emphasis on the team play of late, and not necessarily how the teams would match up.

[Eddie20]

Celtics in 6

We have the size, talent, and depth to not have to double Howard. This means that all their shooters don't get their customary open looks. Speaking of their shooters, it's been mentioned that KG needs to post Lewis to death. However, another one we need to take full advantage of in the paint is Ryan Anderson. I would look to exploit him with any of our 4 big men. And yet another player that we need to use in the post is TA. When their second unit is in, TA will often be guarded by Redick who simply can't handle TA's strength or athleticism. Also, when TA plays the point who will be defending him on the Magic? Nelson? Williams? I think TA has all the matchups to have himself yet another very nice series.

[indeedproceed]

We got Tim "The Leg Man" Legler back!

[Tai]

At least no one picked us to get swept this time. 

[Lucky17]

What, no sweep prediction from Abbott?

His vote aside, Broussard is a chucklehead. He's like a poor man's version of Steve Smith.

Timmy Legs, sticking with us again. Avery Johnson also said this morning that he's picking the Celtics in 7.

Love it. Keep hatin', haterz.

[BballTim]

Hollinger's stats put too much weight on the Magic's hot recent play + not enough emphasis on the individual matchup between the Orlando Magic and the Boston Celtics.

As a result, Hollinger was always going to pick the Magic to win in a short series.

  I think that if you looked at Hollinger's numbers, based quite a bit on play during the season, we'd be, by far, the biggest outlier out of any playoff team. The team looks bad because of the lack of continuity over a period of months. Two of our top 3 players had lowish stats because they were playing while injured for long stretches.

[Change]

Legler welcome again, old friend.

[ACF]

Keep hatin', haterz.

[Eddie20]

Additionally historically if you think the home team will win, the most likely outcome is they will win in 5. So if Hollinger thinks Magic > Celtics, he'll pick them in 5. If he thought Magic = C's with an edge he'd pick them in 7. He's unlikely to ever pick a home team in 4 or 6 games and has explained it many times.

Right. Which means he felt/feels that the difference between the Magic and Cavs is/was a greater disparity than the difference between us and the Heat. Which is why he predicted us over the Heat in 7, but losing to both the Cavs and Magic in 5.

Does his formula take in consideration when the last time the Magic played a meaningful and close game? Or Vince Carter and his playoff failures? Or that we're not Atlanta and do not have Horford and Zaza covering Howard?

[JHTruth]

Ahh Legler will always retain a special place in C's fans hearts for his 2008 Finals pick. I remember he was adamant that we would win games 5 and 6. The guy has a special connection to us.

Everyone else just adds fuel to the fire..

[Chris]

Hollinger's stats put too much weight on the Magic's hot recent play + not enough emphasis on the individual matchup between the Orlando Magic and the Boston Celtics.

As a result, Hollinger was always going to pick the Magic to win in a short series.

Yup, not to mention, I don't think stats can represent the switch being flipped.  The C's had a terrible regular season, and that makes it very tough for them to have favorable statistical models for the post season.

[Brendan]

Additionally historically if you think the home team will win, the most likely outcome is they will win in 5. So if Hollinger thinks Magic > Celtics, he'll pick them in 5. If he thought Magic = C's with an edge he'd pick them in 7. He's unlikely to ever pick a home team in 4 or 6 games and has explained it many times.

Right. Which means he felt/feels that the difference between the Magic and Cavs is/was a greater disparity than the difference between us and the Heat. Which is why he predicted us over the Heat in 7, but losing to both the Cavs and Magic in 5.

Does his formula take in consideration when the last time the Magic played a meaningful and close game? Or Vince Carter and his playoff failures? Or that we're not Atlanta and do not have Horford and Zaza covering Howard?

Nope.

For Miami series, he thought Miami's hot streak and Celtics snooze fest in the regular season would continue. He was wrong and he'd be the first to fess up.

For ORL - I agree that push overs might have softened them up. ATL especially was a really bad matchup against ORL.