Offseason question about Ray Allen's spot

[Hoops]

Stepping away from all the play-off excitement for a moment...

First, my disclaimer that I'm not a salary cap expert and I don't usually pay attention to these kinds of threads. Second, to protect myself against sounding like a total homer-idiot, let me say that the following thought is merely a question, not a trade idea, proposal or even a desire of mine...

So, here's my question. Ray Allen has a big contract expiring at the end of this year - something on the order of $17 million, give or take a few? But Boston's ability to sign FAs is based on how much money under the cap we have available, right? Not the value of Ray's expiring contract? So, if our salary considerations w/o Ray's contract next year put us only a few million under the cap (or whatever that number is), then we can only sign FAs up to that number (not including the mid-level exception, etc.)?

I'm not suggesting guys like LeBron or Wade would ever want to come to Boston, but if they did want to come, there's no way we could sign one of them this summer unless they were willing to sign for pennies, right? In other words, it's not like we have Ray's $17 million (or whatever it is) to spend on big name FAs, correct?

 

[Roy Hobbs]

Basically, you're correct.  For a full explanation, see here:  http://forums.celticsblog.com/index.php?topic=28668.0

Long story short, though, we won't be under the cap, even if Ray left.  That being the case, we'll only have the MLE to upgrade (plus, we can re-sign our own free agents to varying degrees.)

(One small correction:  teams that utilize cap space can't spend the MLE.)

[birdwatcher]

It would take the perfect storm of good fortune to land any major free agents. First, ownership would have to be willing to pay the luxury tax. Then, one of those top free agents would have to take less than the 18-20 million they will probably command. Then we would have to hope someone would be foolish enough to take one of our big contracts off our hands, like KG or Pierce (Where's Chris Wallace when you need him?). Finally, Ray would probably have to take under what some have projected to be a $8 mil/yr salary. But, why sell the farm? One man teams don't get very far anymore, I think KG deserves one last year as they say his knee hasn't had at least a full year to rehab from--maybe he can come back stronger next year...Pierce will work hard in the off season and can come back a solid player, just not the dominant one we were used to. To me, I love Ray but I am not married to the idea of him being on the team next year...we need to focus on getting better, not being sentimental.

[misha]

Maybe we can reach an agreement with PP for him to opt out and sign something like 3 years graduate deal. Also would be nice to get rid of Sheed's contract, though we need a magician for that.

[jambr380]

It would take the perfect storm of good fortune to land any major free agents. First, ownership would have to be willing to pay the luxury tax. Then, one of those top free agents would have to take less than the 18-20 million they will probably command. Then we would have to hope someone would be foolish enough to take one of our big contracts off our hands, like KG or Pierce (Where's Chris Wallace when you need him?). Finally, Ray would probably have to take under what some have projected to be a $8 mil/yr salary. But, why sell the farm? One man teams don't get very far anymore, I think KG deserves one last year as they say his knee hasn't had at least a full year to rehab from--maybe he can come back stronger next year...Pierce will work hard in the off season and can come back a solid player, just not the dominant one we were used to. To me, I love Ray but I am not married to the idea of him being on the team next year...we need to focus on getting better, not being sentimental.

Ray is the player whom I trust the most right now (except a few free throws yesterday). I would love to sign Ray to a 2 year/18 mill deal. KGs contract is the one that is really hampering us- not Ray's. If you guys want a superstar, a sign and trade would have to happen with Garnett or Pierce. I think PP still has some left in the tank, but I am afraid of KG as he gets older. He is looking as good as he has this season so far in the playoffs, but I am not sure it's going to be good enough.

Don't be so quick to ship away Ray, though. I think we have really come to take his shooting, ability to get to the hoop, leadership, and even his defense for granted.

[gpap]

If I were Danny Ainge, I'd be all-over D-Wade, Lebron, Bosh and Nowitzki like white on rice!

[Roy Hobbs]

If I were Danny Ainge, I'd be all-over D-Wade, Lebron, Bosh and Nowitzki like white on rice!

There's not a whole lot that Danny can do to get any of them, though.  A sign-and-trade (of maybe Ray + Rondo + #19) is the only real opportunity, and I can't see that landing any of the major FAs.

[Chris]

If I were Danny Ainge, I'd be all-over D-Wade, Lebron, Bosh and Nowitzki like white on rice!

There's not a whole lot that Danny can do to get any of them, though.  A sign-and-trade (of maybe Ray + Rondo + #19) is the only real opportunity, and I can't see that landing any of the major FAs.

Well, I could see a combination of Ray + Perk + a couple draft picks enticing a team, if one of those guys really wanted to come here.

I think the case where it would be most likely would be Joe Johnson.  He would be a good fit here, and Atlanta may want to get value for him, rather than paying him.  Ray would slide right in, and keep them relevant, if not a contender, and Perk would be valuable since they struggle so much against Howard.  And of course there is the possibility that Johnson's (short) experience in Boston was positive, and that he would be interested in returning (a max contract that he may not necessarily get from a team under the cap helps as well).

[Roy Hobbs]

If I were Danny Ainge, I'd be all-over D-Wade, Lebron, Bosh and Nowitzki like white on rice!

There's not a whole lot that Danny can do to get any of them, though.  A sign-and-trade (of maybe Ray + Rondo + #19) is the only real opportunity, and I can't see that landing any of the major FAs.

Well, I could see a combination of Ray + Perk + a couple draft picks enticing a team, if one of those guys really wanted to come here.

I think the case where it would be most likely would be Joe Johnson.  He would be a good fit here, and Atlanta may want to get value for him, rather than paying him.  Ray would slide right in, and keep them relevant, if not a contender, and Perk would be valuable since they struggle so much against Howard.  And of course there is the possibility that Johnson's (short) experience in Boston was positive, and that he would be interested in returning (a max contract that he may not necessarily get from a team under the cap helps as well).

Johnson may be available for that package, but would we really want to trade Rondo + Ray + #19 for him?  I don't think I would.

The other, more elite players -- Lebron, Wade, Bosh -- aren't going to be available.  As far as the player "really wanting" to sign here, I just don't see any leverage.  What's Wade going to say?  "Trade me to Boston or I'm going to take the MLE from them?"  I guess there's the possibility of "trade me to Boston or I'm going to sign in New York", but I can't remember a scenario like that happening.  Generally, sign-and-trades take place with a team that has space, but wants to offer a little more.

[pearljammer10]

Yeah it would have to be a good package but it wouldnt have to blow the other team out of the water. Especially since LeBron, Wade, Bosh etc can choose where they want to play, the team would make the best possibly sign and trade they could with the team of that players choice.

[Chris]

If I were Danny Ainge, I'd be all-over D-Wade, Lebron, Bosh and Nowitzki like white on rice!

There's not a whole lot that Danny can do to get any of them, though.  A sign-and-trade (of maybe Ray + Rondo + #19) is the only real opportunity, and I can't see that landing any of the major FAs.

Well, I could see a combination of Ray + Perk + a couple draft picks enticing a team, if one of those guys really wanted to come here.

I think the case where it would be most likely would be Joe Johnson.  He would be a good fit here, and Atlanta may want to get value for him, rather than paying him.  Ray would slide right in, and keep them relevant, if not a contender, and Perk would be valuable since they struggle so much against Howard.  And of course there is the possibility that Johnson's (short) experience in Boston was positive, and that he would be interested in returning (a max contract that he may not necessarily get from a team under the cap helps as well).

Johnson may be available for that package, but would we really want to trade Rondo + Ray + #19 for him?  I don't think I would.

The other, more elite players -- Lebron, Wade, Bosh -- aren't going to be available.  As far as the player "really wanting" to sign here, I just don't see any leverage.  What's Wade going to say?  "Trade me to Boston or I'm going to take the MLE from them?"  I guess there's the possibility of "trade me to Boston or I'm going to sign in New York", but I can't remember a scenario like that happening.  Generally, sign-and-trades take place with a team that has space, but wants to offer a little more.

Well, I am saying Perk + Ray + a pick or two.  I don't trade Rondo unless we are getting one of those top 3 guys.  

As for a player dictating a sign and trade, I think that absolutely can happen.  You are right, that it is more likely with a team under the cap, but it is not inconcievable in a scenario like this.  It just means the team making the trade is going to have to give real value, rather than the standard sign and trade value.  

I also think its important to remember that in this scenario, Ray Allen is an incredibly valuable chip.  For a team like the Hawks, who are almost certainly not going to want to pay Johnson max money, Ray Allen is about as good a replacement as they could hope for, and they could have him for many fewer years.  He would allow them to stay relevant, rather than falling completely off the map again.

Although I am not sure the C's would want to give up value like that for the right to pay Johnson superstar money, as he will soon be on the downside of his career.  But I think the possibility of a deal like that is there...but there aren't a ton of teams that are good fits.

[Chris]

Yeah it would have to be a good package but it wouldnt have to blow the other team out of the water. Especially since LeBron, Wade, Bosh etc can choose where they want to play, the team would make the best possibly sign and trade they could with the team of that players choice.

I disagree with this.  I do think you have to blow a team out of the water with those guys.  If they go on the market as sign and trade possibilities, every team in the league will be making bids.  That puts the team in the driver seat.  If Lebron wants to go to a city that does not blow the Cavs away, they can very easily play hardball and threaten to let him walk, and start rebuilding with cap space. 

[The Walker Wiggle]

If Lebron wants to go to a city that does not blow the Cavs away, they can very easily play hardball and threaten to let him walk, and start rebuilding with cap space.

Except isn't Cleveland committed to some $48 million next season even without James? In trading for Antawn Jamison and his $25+ million in salary over the next two years, the Cavaliers went all in on resigning Lebron. Not that there was ever a Plan B. (And rightly so.)

Am I the only one not looking forward to either of the next TWO off-seasons.

[amenhotep04]

Is it possible for a big name to come to the Celtics and get a graduated contract where they sign for five million and gradually have their income go up over a period of five or six years?

I mean, Miami isn't going anywhere. If Wade wants to win a championship, wouldn't he have to take less money somewhere? The guy has to make a ton in endorsements.

[Kuberski33]

If the Celtics were to bring back Ray is there a limit to what they can pay him?