Ok fine, i'll be the first to bring it up... (BBD starting over KG, merged)

[muddy02]

ok, i felt like i owed you guys some numbers, so i just went and tallied these:

The 9 game stretch in Jan where KG was out, the celtic scored a total of 139 fast break points (according to nba.com) for an average of 15.4 per game.

Now i know that Sheed "started" for KG in that stretch but we all know BBD played a ton of minutes, and Sheed was just hanging out by the 3 point line in transition.

Can anyone find the season average per game for the C's to compare?  if the numbers prove me wrong then i will happily admit it.

I really don't see how that comparison would show anything though.  There are WAY too many variable, not the least of which is the play of Rondo, who has often picked up his game when KG has been out.

Does that mean KG should be benched to get the most out of Rondo?  JK

i agree that there are nunerous variables (opponents, how many break away layups TA misses, etc.) but i don't know how else to quantify it.  This just seems like a simple high level view to either say we fast break more or less when KG is out.  

I honestly don't know the answer, i've been looking...

Well, you can certainly quantify whether we fast break more or less when KG is out.  That is easy (if you want to put in the time), but to then twist that into having anything to do with Davis is pretty darn close to impossible.  

It is like finding a correlation between driving a big rig, and cancer, and then trying to say because of that correlation, you think fast food causes cancer.  It just doesn't work that way.

Replacing one player with their primary backup at that position and seeing how the numbers fall is not as far fetched as you make it seem.  All i know is the top running teams average about 17-18 fast break pts per game, while the slower teams average below 10.  so 15.4 seems like a pretty good balance to me.

[muddy02]

Muddy, funny when I saw the title of your post, I just knew what it was going to be about. I've been thinking the same thing. I love KG but maybe.....he's past his time...hurt a little too much. Davis scored more, defended more and was a lot quicker. KG scored 15 in the first playoff game playing as starter. Davis scored 23 as starter in the second game, not to mention the rebounds, steals and assists.
I'm worried we'll go back to the lackluster play that's characterized this whole season. We've found a good chemistry here and I wish to keep it.

Well i'm not ready to dump KG.  I just like the style we play when BBD is in there with Rondo pushing it up the floor.  I just don't see that when KG is in there (lately).

[footey]

Deep down, i know we're better with KG on the floor.  

However...  i can't help but think that against certain teams, he's not always the best option on the floor.  I will back this up with my observations, especially from Game 2 last night.

1. We can RUN!!  with rondo pushing the ball after every stop (or even made basket) we got much better offense.  I feel like with Davis in there over KG, he gets down the floor much quicker than KG can at this stage.  Although KG has a better outside shot, i think the running overshadows benefits in a half court set.

2. We have enough defense when we put in the effort.  So to say you need KG in there defensively is not entirely true.  Perkins was a beast last night, and with solid team defense that davis was talking about post game, i think having KG in there is not mandatory.

3. Davis is way more aggressive than KG.  He was moving to get in position for some charges that i've never seen KG do.  He was on the floor every other play, which with KG's legs, is harder for him to do.

So i know not everyone will agree, but i know some of you were thinking these things during the game.  And this thought is not entirely based on the fact that we won, that would be stupid.  It was based on HOW we won, and what i saw during the game.

Thoughts?

TP for OP, I was thinking the same thing. I know it would not happen, but there is alot to consider by starting Glen. We seem to have much more energy, and are less likely to fall behind early.  I just like the tone it sets. We feel more like a hybrid team (mix of youth and vets) rather than an old team with a young PG and unathletic center.

[Fafnir]

TP for OP, I was thinking the same thing. I know it would not happen, but there is alot to consider by starting Glen. We seem to have much more energy, and are less likely to fall behind early.

Uh what?

We're way worse with BBD in there for KG with the starters. We're more likely to score less points and more likely to give up more points.

How does that mean we won't fall behind early? One playoff game does not outweigh a whole season. Heck a whole career where KG is better!

[clover]

I think the guy Baby has clearly won out over is Sheed, and between backing up Perk and KG there's room for Baby to get more minutes than the starters.  (Say 36 minutes to KG and Perk's 27 and 33.)

He's the first guy off the bench, and to me the question is whether Doc would bring him in after 5 or 6 if the starters don't come out of the gate strong.

I think a big benefit he brings is that he seems to charge up Perk now the way that KG did in '07-'08.  Perhaps Perk just needs to keep himself charged.

[Chris]

ok, i felt like i owed you guys some numbers, so i just went and tallied these:

The 9 game stretch in Jan where KG was out, the celtic scored a total of 139 fast break points (according to nba.com) for an average of 15.4 per game.

Now i know that Sheed "started" for KG in that stretch but we all know BBD played a ton of minutes, and Sheed was just hanging out by the 3 point line in transition.

Can anyone find the season average per game for the C's to compare?  if the numbers prove me wrong then i will happily admit it.

I really don't see how that comparison would show anything though.  There are WAY too many variable, not the least of which is the play of Rondo, who has often picked up his game when KG has been out.

Does that mean KG should be benched to get the most out of Rondo?  JK

i agree that there are nunerous variables (opponents, how many break away layups TA misses, etc.) but i don't know how else to quantify it.  This just seems like a simple high level view to either say we fast break more or less when KG is out.  

I honestly don't know the answer, i've been looking...

Well, you can certainly quantify whether we fast break more or less when KG is out.  That is easy (if you want to put in the time), but to then twist that into having anything to do with Davis is pretty darn close to impossible.  

It is like finding a correlation between driving a big rig, and cancer, and then trying to say because of that correlation, you think fast food causes cancer.  It just doesn't work that way.

Replacing one player with their primary backup at that position and seeing how the numbers fall is not as far fetched as you make it seem.  All i know is the top running teams average about 17-18 fast break pts per game, while the slower teams average below 10.  so 15.4 seems like a pretty good balance to me.

OK, how about this.  When the C's have the lineup of Rondo/Ray/Pierce/Garnett/Perkins on the floor this season, they are +299.  When they have the lineup of Rondo/Ray/Pierce/Davis/Perkins on the floor they are -33.

So I am not sure about the pace, but if you want to qualitate the difference of having Davis on the floor versus KG, Davis is not going to win that battle.

[muddy02]

ok, i felt like i owed you guys some numbers, so i just went and tallied these:

The 9 game stretch in Jan where KG was out, the celtic scored a total of 139 fast break points (according to nba.com) for an average of 15.4 per game.

Now i know that Sheed "started" for KG in that stretch but we all know BBD played a ton of minutes, and Sheed was just hanging out by the 3 point line in transition.

Can anyone find the season average per game for the C's to compare?  if the numbers prove me wrong then i will happily admit it.

I really don't see how that comparison would show anything though.  There are WAY too many variable, not the least of which is the play of Rondo, who has often picked up his game when KG has been out.

Does that mean KG should be benched to get the most out of Rondo?  JK

i agree that there are nunerous variables (opponents, how many break away layups TA misses, etc.) but i don't know how else to quantify it.  This just seems like a simple high level view to either say we fast break more or less when KG is out.  

I honestly don't know the answer, i've been looking...

Well, you can certainly quantify whether we fast break more or less when KG is out.  That is easy (if you want to put in the time), but to then twist that into having anything to do with Davis is pretty darn close to impossible.  

It is like finding a correlation between driving a big rig, and cancer, and then trying to say because of that correlation, you think fast food causes cancer.  It just doesn't work that way.

Replacing one player with their primary backup at that position and seeing how the numbers fall is not as far fetched as you make it seem.  All i know is the top running teams average about 17-18 fast break pts per game, while the slower teams average below 10.  so 15.4 seems like a pretty good balance to me.

OK, how about this.  When the C's have the lineup of Rondo/Ray/Pierce/Garnett/Perkins on the floor this season, they are +299.  When they have the lineup of Rondo/Ray/Pierce/Davis/Perkins on the floor they are -33.

So I am not sure about the pace, but if you want to qualitate the difference of having Davis on the floor versus KG, Davis is not going to win that battle.

So Garnet alone is +332 ?? I'm aware of the +/- scoring system, but you'll have to elaborate on those combined numbers.  I find it hard to believe that BBD brings down the rest of the lineup that much.

i'm guessing multiple small leads add up when you play 2.2 times as many minutes, which is why i don't really like this stat.  It's weighted more toward total playing time.

[Chris]

ok, i felt like i owed you guys some numbers, so i just went and tallied these:

The 9 game stretch in Jan where KG was out, the celtic scored a total of 139 fast break points (according to nba.com) for an average of 15.4 per game.

Now i know that Sheed "started" for KG in that stretch but we all know BBD played a ton of minutes, and Sheed was just hanging out by the 3 point line in transition.

Can anyone find the season average per game for the C's to compare?  if the numbers prove me wrong then i will happily admit it.

I really don't see how that comparison would show anything though.  There are WAY too many variable, not the least of which is the play of Rondo, who has often picked up his game when KG has been out.

Does that mean KG should be benched to get the most out of Rondo?  JK

i agree that there are nunerous variables (opponents, how many break away layups TA misses, etc.) but i don't know how else to quantify it.  This just seems like a simple high level view to either say we fast break more or less when KG is out. 

I honestly don't know the answer, i've been looking...

Well, you can certainly quantify whether we fast break more or less when KG is out.  That is easy (if you want to put in the time), but to then twist that into having anything to do with Davis is pretty darn close to impossible. 

It is like finding a correlation between driving a big rig, and cancer, and then trying to say because of that correlation, you think fast food causes cancer.  It just doesn't work that way.

Replacing one player with their primary backup at that position and seeing how the numbers fall is not as far fetched as you make it seem.  All i know is the top running teams average about 17-18 fast break pts per game, while the slower teams average below 10.  so 15.4 seems like a pretty good balance to me.

OK, how about this.  When the C's have the lineup of Rondo/Ray/Pierce/Garnett/Perkins on the floor this season, they are +299.  When they have the lineup of Rondo/Ray/Pierce/Davis/Perkins on the floor they are -33.

So I am not sure about the pace, but if you want to qualitate the difference of having Davis on the floor versus KG, Davis is not going to win that battle.

So Garnet alone is +332 ?? I'm aware of the +/- scoring system, but you'll have to elaborate on those combined numbers.  I find it hard to believe that BBD brings down the rest of the lineup that much.

It is a simple +/- for 5 man groups.  So basically, when the starting 5 are on the floor, they outscore the opponents by 299 this year.  When the starting 4 with Davis at PF are on the floor, the opponent has scored 33 more points than the C's have.

Now, personally, I hate these types of stats, because, like I said with the stats you are trying to look at (which aren't even as specific as these ones), there are generally too many variable to draw conclusions from them. 

However, those numbers are pretty telling of just how much of a positive impact having KG on the floor with the starters has over having Davis on the floor with the exact same 4 guys.

[clover]

ok, i felt like i owed you guys some numbers, so i just went and tallied these:

The 9 game stretch in Jan where KG was out, the celtic scored a total of 139 fast break points (according to nba.com) for an average of 15.4 per game.

Now i know that Sheed "started" for KG in that stretch but we all know BBD played a ton of minutes, and Sheed was just hanging out by the 3 point line in transition.

Can anyone find the season average per game for the C's to compare?  if the numbers prove me wrong then i will happily admit it.

I really don't see how that comparison would show anything though.  There are WAY too many variable, not the least of which is the play of Rondo, who has often picked up his game when KG has been out.

Does that mean KG should be benched to get the most out of Rondo?  JK

i agree that there are nunerous variables (opponents, how many break away layups TA misses, etc.) but i don't know how else to quantify it.  This just seems like a simple high level view to either say we fast break more or less when KG is out. 

I honestly don't know the answer, i've been looking...

Well, you can certainly quantify whether we fast break more or less when KG is out.  That is easy (if you want to put in the time), but to then twist that into having anything to do with Davis is pretty darn close to impossible. 

It is like finding a correlation between driving a big rig, and cancer, and then trying to say because of that correlation, you think fast food causes cancer.  It just doesn't work that way.

Replacing one player with their primary backup at that position and seeing how the numbers fall is not as far fetched as you make it seem.  All i know is the top running teams average about 17-18 fast break pts per game, while the slower teams average below 10.  so 15.4 seems like a pretty good balance to me.

OK, how about this.  When the C's have the lineup of Rondo/Ray/Pierce/Garnett/Perkins on the floor this season, they are +299.  When they have the lineup of Rondo/Ray/Pierce/Davis/Perkins on the floor they are -33.

So I am not sure about the pace, but if you want to qualitate the difference of having Davis on the floor versus KG, Davis is not going to win that battle.

So Garnet alone is +332 ?? I'm aware of the +/- scoring system, but you'll have to elaborate on those combined numbers.  I find it hard to believe that BBD brings down the rest of the lineup that much.

It is a simple +/- for 5 man groups.  So basically, when the starting 5 are on the floor, they outscore the opponents by 299 this year.  When the starting 4 with Davis at PF are on the floor, the opponent has scored 33 more points than the C's have.

Now, personally, I hate these types of stats, because, like I said with the stats you are trying to look at (which aren't even as specific as these ones), there are generally too many variable to draw conclusions from them. 

However, those numbers are pretty telling of just how much of a positive impact having KG on the floor with the starters has over having Davis on the floor with the exact same 4 guys.

It's a pretty small sample and I'd want to know more.  How good were the teams Baby was in against? 

[Spilling Green Dye]

ok, i felt like i owed you guys some numbers, so i just went and tallied these:

The 9 game stretch in Jan where KG was out, the celtic scored a total of 139 fast break points (according to nba.com) for an average of 15.4 per game.

Now i know that Sheed "started" for KG in that stretch but we all know BBD played a ton of minutes, and Sheed was just hanging out by the 3 point line in transition.

Can anyone find the season average per game for the C's to compare?  if the numbers prove me wrong then i will happily admit it.

I really don't see how that comparison would show anything though.  There are WAY too many variable, not the least of which is the play of Rondo, who has often picked up his game when KG has been out.

Does that mean KG should be benched to get the most out of Rondo?  JK

i agree that there are nunerous variables (opponents, how many break away layups TA misses, etc.) but i don't know how else to quantify it.  This just seems like a simple high level view to either say we fast break more or less when KG is out.  

I honestly don't know the answer, i've been looking...

Well, you can certainly quantify whether we fast break more or less when KG is out.  That is easy (if you want to put in the time), but to then twist that into having anything to do with Davis is pretty darn close to impossible.  

It is like finding a correlation between driving a big rig, and cancer, and then trying to say because of that correlation, you think fast food causes cancer.  It just doesn't work that way.

Replacing one player with their primary backup at that position and seeing how the numbers fall is not as far fetched as you make it seem.  All i know is the top running teams average about 17-18 fast break pts per game, while the slower teams average below 10.  so 15.4 seems like a pretty good balance to me.

OK, how about this.  When the C's have the lineup of Rondo/Ray/Pierce/Garnett/Perkins on the floor this season, they are +299.  When they have the lineup of Rondo/Ray/Pierce/Davis/Perkins on the floor they are -33.

So I am not sure about the pace, but if you want to qualitate the difference of having Davis on the floor versus KG, Davis is not going to win that battle.

So Garnet alone is +332 ?? I'm aware of the +/- scoring system, but you'll have to elaborate on those combined numbers.  I find it hard to believe that BBD brings down the rest of the lineup that much.

i'm guessing multiple small leads add up when you play 2.2 times as many minutes, which is why i don't really like this stat.  It's weighted more toward total playing time.

Muddy, you asked the question and you got your answer.  The statistic isn't skewed or manipulated against Davis.  In fact, the statistic couldn't be more clear:  When you take KG out and replace him with Davis IN THE EXACT SAME LINEUP, then you get the numbers mentioned.  This lineup change is exactly what you've requested, and we've given you as close as an answer as can be obtained. 

I've been citing that primary statistic on C-blog the past few days, so I'm surprised if this is the first people have seen it.  I like what Davis is doing, but there is an enormous dropoff from KG to Davis. 

[Andy Jick]

Did Jim Paxson write the original post?

[Chris]

ok, i felt like i owed you guys some numbers, so i just went and tallied these:

The 9 game stretch in Jan where KG was out, the celtic scored a total of 139 fast break points (according to nba.com) for an average of 15.4 per game.

Now i know that Sheed "started" for KG in that stretch but we all know BBD played a ton of minutes, and Sheed was just hanging out by the 3 point line in transition.

Can anyone find the season average per game for the C's to compare?  if the numbers prove me wrong then i will happily admit it.

I really don't see how that comparison would show anything though.  There are WAY too many variable, not the least of which is the play of Rondo, who has often picked up his game when KG has been out.

Does that mean KG should be benched to get the most out of Rondo?  JK

i agree that there are nunerous variables (opponents, how many break away layups TA misses, etc.) but i don't know how else to quantify it.  This just seems like a simple high level view to either say we fast break more or less when KG is out. 

I honestly don't know the answer, i've been looking...

Well, you can certainly quantify whether we fast break more or less when KG is out.  That is easy (if you want to put in the time), but to then twist that into having anything to do with Davis is pretty darn close to impossible. 

It is like finding a correlation between driving a big rig, and cancer, and then trying to say because of that correlation, you think fast food causes cancer.  It just doesn't work that way.

Replacing one player with their primary backup at that position and seeing how the numbers fall is not as far fetched as you make it seem.  All i know is the top running teams average about 17-18 fast break pts per game, while the slower teams average below 10.  so 15.4 seems like a pretty good balance to me.

OK, how about this.  When the C's have the lineup of Rondo/Ray/Pierce/Garnett/Perkins on the floor this season, they are +299.  When they have the lineup of Rondo/Ray/Pierce/Davis/Perkins on the floor they are -33.

So I am not sure about the pace, but if you want to qualitate the difference of having Davis on the floor versus KG, Davis is not going to win that battle.

So Garnet alone is +332 ?? I'm aware of the +/- scoring system, but you'll have to elaborate on those combined numbers.  I find it hard to believe that BBD brings down the rest of the lineup that much.

It is a simple +/- for 5 man groups.  So basically, when the starting 5 are on the floor, they outscore the opponents by 299 this year.  When the starting 4 with Davis at PF are on the floor, the opponent has scored 33 more points than the C's have.

Now, personally, I hate these types of stats, because, like I said with the stats you are trying to look at (which aren't even as specific as these ones), there are generally too many variable to draw conclusions from them. 

However, those numbers are pretty telling of just how much of a positive impact having KG on the floor with the starters has over having Davis on the floor with the exact same 4 guys.

It's a pretty small sample and I'd want to know more.  How good were the teams Baby was in against? 

So were the 9 games when KG sat out in January, which the OP proposed looking at.  And for that data set, we weren't even looking at when Davis was on the floor.

Like I said, its a flawed stat.  But the OP asked for a stat showing the difference of when KG is in there versus Davis.  Here it is.

[Spilling Green Dye]

It's a pretty small sample and I'd want to know more.  How good were the teams Baby was in against? 

You guys are trying to find every way possible to justify that statistic, but it's not a small sampling.  

If you want to look at just +/- for the entire season then checkout:

http://www.82games.com/0910/0910BOS1.HTM

Davis has the largest negative.  Obviously it's not the largest negative per minute, but it does encompass the entire season.  The 5-man rotation difference can't possibly be more telling though.

[Fafnir]

His adjusted plus/minus is pretty terrible too:

http://basketballvalue.com/teamplayers.php?year=2009-2010&mode=summary&sortnumber=85&sortorder=ASC&team=BOS

-5.46

For offensive/defensive rating
-4.48 on the defensive end
-5.53 on the offensive end

Basically we score a lot less with him on the floor and give up a lot more points when he's on the floor.

[Mr October]

Numbers aside... sure we can run on Miami... but against Cleveland, Orlando and LA you are going to need excellent big men in the half court.

Thats just the nature of the playoffs beast in the advanced rounds.

KG is very much going to be needed. Its tricky when to know when to run the offense through Rondo, Pierce or KG. Hopefully they strike a good balance.