TP nick.
Average teams get up by a lot then let the game be decided essentially by a 50/50 coin flip at the end.
Great teams don't let other teams close the gap.
Any team can get up by a large margin at some point.
And any team can win if the game comes down to the buzzer.
Only great teams can consistently win in comfort.
There's no evidence "clutch" exists. Run the numbers on someone like Kobe, allegedly the great fourth quarter clutch player of our generation. He comes up decidedly average.
This is why margin of victory is one of the best predictors of success. The 07-08 Celtics mauled teams all season. And won the title. This year's team squeaks out wins against everyone. Not championship calibre, unfortunately.
I agree, that's what i was trying to say. Look at what i said: it's the average teams that lets the game come down to the wire. It's the great teams that get up by double digits AND WIN BY DOUBLE DIGITS.
If there were a team that was always within 1 point (up or down) with one minute to go, they'd probably finish 41-41 on the season. And if they were "clutch" and finished 46-36, they'd be just as likely to finish 36-46 the next season (if they kept the same players) as duplicate the success.
So that's what I said:
-If the game comes down to the wire, anyone can beat anyone...doesn't have anything to do with "clutch."
-Any team can get up by double digits on any other team in any given game. The GREAT teams do it frequently...and WIN by those amounts.