The Long, Slow Decline

[Brickowski]

I think they would have a much better chance of winning this year with Ellis and Biedrins.  Right now they have about a 2-3% chance.  If the make the trade, that probably goes to 10%.

And it makes even more of a difference next year.  The downside is the luxury tax. There is no basketball downside, barring freak injuries, but those could happen to Allen or Perkins too.  

I don't agree about your opinion on the trade; however, whether we have a 2% chance to win or a 10% chance, it's likely a better chance to win a championship then we'll have in 3 years from now, no matter what we do in the meantime. 

I wouldn't be in a rush to blow this thing up. 

I don't agree with that assessment at all.  With the right moves now, the team could be very competitive three years from now. But it is 110% certain that it will not be competitive any time soon if Ainge does nothing.

People call me pessemistic.  Well, I don't see how anyone could have watched the last 25 games and not be pessemistic.  And even before that, when they were winning, they were not playing well.

[Jon]

I think they would have a much better chance of winning this year with Ellis and Biedrins.  Right now they have about a 2-3% chance.  If the make the trade, that probably goes to 10%.

And it makes even more of a difference next year.  The downside is the luxury tax. There is no basketball downside, barring freak injuries, but those could happen to Allen or Perkins too.  

I don't agree about your opinion on the trade; however, whether we have a 2% chance to win or a 10% chance, it's likely a better chance to win a championship then we'll have in 3 years from now, no matter what we do in the meantime. 

I wouldn't be in a rush to blow this thing up. 

I don't agree with that assessment at all.  With the right moves now, the team could be very competitive three years from now. But it is 110% certain that it will not be competitive any time soon if Ainge does nothing.

People call me pessemistic.  Well, I don't see how anyone could have watched the last 25 games and not be pessemistic.  And even before that, when they were winning, they were not playing well.

Sure, we can be competitive in 3 years.  But unless we get extremely lucky and land LeBron, Durant, Wade or the next Duncan or Kobe, our aspirations will simply be to be the next in a long line of good, but not great teams, that never win it all. 

And sure, the last 25 games sucked, but the first 25 didn't.  In fact, the first 25 games were sensational. 

Why exactly can't we get back to that?  Last time I checked, our next game will likely be the first game the entire season where we'll have everyone on our roster close to being healthy. 

I'd be with you if this team had been healthy all season and played like this.  Or if KG was our for the season.  But we've seen the team be dominant even with KG at less than 100% and everyone else now seems to finally be healthy.  Let's see what that team can do before we blow this thing up. 

[ScoobyDoo]

I have by no means given up on this team. I think that if we can just get healthy and do evena small trade, we might be primed for #18.

As Pierce Ray and KG get older, we need to have a better bench. If we could simply do a small trade that netted us a nice back up point for once in Rondo's career and a "decent" back up small forward, and the team stayed healthy and got to play together for a good stretch, we could be suprisingly dominant again, within this month.

For example if we could bring in DJ Augustin and a reasonable back up small forward our second unit would be great enhanced by havign a playmaker and true back up small forward on it.

You could probably get these for expirings.

Maybe Baby to Charlotte for Augustin and Scal, TA and House + a young guy Miller a a few end of the bench guys from Washington.'

How would we looks like this:

Perkins / Rasheed
KG / Shelden
Pierce / Miller
Ray Allen / Marquis
Rondo / DJ Augustin

That second unit should allow plenty of rest for KG Pierce and Ray to get good and healthy down the stretch.

These are just small moves.

[Jon]

I have by no means given up on this team. I think that if we can just get healthy and do evena small trade, we might be primed for #18.

As Pierce Ray and KG get older, we need to have a better bench. If we could simply do a small trade that netted us a nice back up point for once in Rondo's career and a "decent" back up small forward, and the team stayed healthy and got to play together for a good stretch, we could be suprisingly dominant again, within this month.

For example if we could bring in DJ Augustin and a reasonable back up small forward our second unit would be great enhanced by havign a playmaker and true back up small forward on it.

You could probably get these for expirings.

Maybe Baby to Charlotte for Augustin and Scal, TA and House + a young guy Miller a a few end of the bench guys from Washington.'

How would we looks like this:

Perkins / Rasheed
KG / Shelden
Pierce / Miller
Ray Allen / Marquis
Rondo / DJ Augustin

That second unit should allow plenty of rest for KG Pierce and Ray to get good and healthy down the stretch.

These are just small moves.

The problem is, Mike Miller expires after this season.  Thus, Washington won't trade him for expiring contracts when they can just let him expire. 

Jamison, though expensive long term and older, could be had for TA, Scal, Giddens, and House. 

[slamtheking]

It doesn't matter if the championship was "worth it" or not.  Let's assume that it was.

That championship happened two years ago, and has no bearing on what the Celtics must do going forward.  The issue now is the next championship, not the last one.

Succinct and to the point as always Brick.  TP

[ScoobyDoo]

Yeah, good point Jon and I agree re Jamison as well. I was thinking maybe they'd want to pick up a couple young players for small salary, but they could do that with another team who has "better young talent" than we do.

But my larger point is it doesn't necessarily have to be Miller or some "huge move" we make to be able to be a great position to go for #18 and possibly #19. We need a little health and few minor moves.

Maybe Minny wants to get rid of Brewer or Gomes. Maybe they don't see Gomes as the long term solution and don't want to pay him $4-5 Mil over the next three years. So trade them Scal, Walker and a 1st round pick for Gomes and a second round pick. The move Baby for Augustin...

Perkins / Rasheed
KG / Shelden 
Pierce / Gomes
Ray Allen / Marquis
Rondo / Augustin

It doesn't have to be Gomes he's probably a little slow for DF obviously. But I do think that if could find a way to add a decent legit back up for Pierce and a decent legit back up point for Rondo that could run that second team like a real point guard, we could be just devastating again with some luck on the health side...

There has to be some team with contracts for these types of guys that is looking to dump contracts for expirings and we've got  just in TA, Scal, Eddie and Giddens around $7-8 Mil don't we? If you could turn that intoa back up point and a decent small forward, we'd be stacked.

It seems like we should be able to do that.

[housecall]

I have by no means given up on this team. I think that if we can just get healthy and do evena small trade, we might be primed for #18.

As Pierce Ray and KG get older, we need to have a better bench. If we could simply do a small trade that netted us a nice back up point for once in Rondo's career and a "decent" back up small forward, and the team stayed healthy and got to play together for a good stretch, we could be suprisingly dominant again, within this month.

For example if we could bring in DJ Augustin and a reasonable back up small forward our second unit would be great enhanced by havign a playmaker and true back up small forward on it.

You could probably get these for expirings.

Maybe Baby to Charlotte for Augustin and Scal, TA and House + a young guy Miller a a few end of the bench guys from Washington.'

How would we looks like this:

Perkins / Rasheed
KG / Shelden
Pierce / Miller
Ray Allen / Marquis
Rondo / DJ Augustin

That second unit should allow plenty of rest for KG Pierce and Ray to get good and healthy down the stretch.

These are just small moves.

I agree with tweaking the bench only and hoping this starting 5 get/stay healthy for the rest of the season,however i agree on Augustin but i would like a player like 6'9"swingman Travis Outlaw from the Trailbazers,who is due back in March from a foot injury.I think a player of his caliber inserted into the second unit would give them more athleticism,energy,rebounding,scoring,defense,an all around player.But your idea is on the right track just we have different ideas of which players would upgrade the bench.tp  

[slamtheking]

I think Brick is more or less on target with this team going into a decline if nothing occurs.  KG and PP have shown they've aged quicker than anticipated and the team's recent production shows this issue.

If Ray is kept for the season and Danny makes only minor tweaks to the team by swapping minor bench players with another team, this team will fall out of contention quickly after this year.  (There's an outside chance they could win this year but the longer they continue to play like garbage the longer those odds get.)

Consider this, Ray is kept and no young talent is brought in that can make a difference going forward.  This summer, Danny's looking at a volume of openings to fill due to all the expiring deals: Starting SG and back up everything except PF where he's still got Sheed and BBD under contract next year.  Is backup PF secured?  Not really.  Sheed's been a no-show this year and BBD is too short to finish around the rim.  Even starting PF is a question mark with KG's health.  

Now, Danny only has the following options to fill out the roster: Resign his FA's, the MLE and Vet min contracts.   Keeping that in mind, resigning Ray isn't a bad idea if he takes a major pay cut.  Ideally, he'd be paid and playing a 6th man role.  Unfortunately, the C's don't have a young player ready to move into the starting role nor are they likely to get one better than Ray with the MLE.  Ray's back to starting and a year older.  

Figure Daniels or TA will be resigned.  If Daniels wants a significant increase, is he really worth bringing back?  He can't seem to stay healthy.  What do you do if he wants more money to the point the MLE has to be tapped into?  How about TA?  He's not worth more than what he's currently paid but after 6 years of promise, do we bring him back again in consideration of his performance this year?

House: does anyone really want him back?  he's not a backup PG and his shot isn't falling.  Surely Danny can do better with a vet min player, or can he?

Shelden: for a vet min guy, he's been surprisingly productive but would you pay him more to keep him?  Can another vet min take his place, probably but probably not as young or athletic and with less production.

Scal and Giddens:  Adios and farewell.  vet min fillers here.

If the team spends the MLE, do they break it up into multiple, limited-skill players such as a House-TA-type of split or do they shoot the wad and go for a higher-impact player such as a Sheed-level player knowing they have many spots to fill?

I think no matter how this situation were to play out this offseason, the team won't be improving and the big 3 get a year older and decline further.  C's won't have a chance to improve until KG and Sheed's last year where Danny may be able to parlay their expiring deals (and possibly Ray's if he's resigned and smartly to only 2 more years to coincide with KG's deal) into young talent and/or draft picks for contending teams looking for that last piece to put them over the top.

[Jon]

I think Brick is more or less on target with this team going into a decline if nothing occurs.  KG and PP have shown they've aged quicker than anticipated and the team's recent production shows this issue.

If Ray is kept for the season and Danny makes only minor tweaks to the team by swapping minor bench players with another team, this team will fall out of contention quickly after this year.  (There's an outside chance they could win this year but the longer they continue to play like garbage the longer those odds get.)

Consider this, Ray is kept and no young talent is brought in that can make a difference going forward.  This summer, Danny's looking at a volume of openings to fill due to all the expiring deals: Starting SG and back up everything except PF where he's still got Sheed and BBD under contract next year.  Is backup PF secured?  Not really.  Sheed's been a no-show this year and BBD is too short to finish around the rim.  Even starting PF is a question mark with KG's health.  

Now, Danny only has the following options to fill out the roster: Resign his FA's, the MLE and Vet min contracts.   Keeping that in mind, resigning Ray isn't a bad idea if he takes a major pay cut.  Ideally, he'd be paid and playing a 6th man role.  Unfortunately, the C's don't have a young player ready to move into the starting role nor are they likely to get one better than Ray with the MLE.  Ray's back to starting and a year older.  

Figure Daniels or TA will be resigned.  If Daniels wants a significant increase, is he really worth bringing back?  He can't seem to stay healthy.  What do you do if he wants more money to the point the MLE has to be tapped into?  How about TA?  He's not worth more than what he's currently paid but after 6 years of promise, do we bring him back again in consideration of his performance this year?

House: does anyone really want him back?  he's not a backup PG and his shot isn't falling.  Surely Danny can do better with a vet min player, or can he?

Shelden: for a vet min guy, he's been surprisingly productive but would you pay him more to keep him?  Can another vet min take his place, probably but probably not as young or athletic and with less production.

Scal and Giddens:  Adios and farewell.  vet min fillers here.

If the team spends the MLE, do they break it up into multiple, limited-skill players such as a House-TA-type of split or do they shoot the wad and go for a higher-impact player such as a Sheed-level player knowing they have many spots to fill?

I think no matter how this situation were to play out this offseason, the team won't be improving and the big 3 get a year older and decline further.  C's won't have a chance to improve until KG and Sheed's last year where Danny may be able to parlay their expiring deals (and possibly Ray's if he's resigned and smartly to only 2 more years to coincide with KG's deal) into young talent and/or draft picks for contending teams looking for that last piece to put them over the top.

Again, it'd be one thing if this team last looked good two years ago, but they looked darn good two months ago.  Then a bunch of injuries occurred, that presumably they can all recover from. 

That's not to say that KG will be what he was two years ago, but he should be able to be at least as good as he was two months ago, which was good enough for the C's to have the best record in the league after a very tough schedule of the first two months. 

I agree there's going to be a decline.  I just don't think we're there yet. 

[ScoobyDoo]

I'm wondering if KG and Pierce are just dinged up right now rather than getting old overnight. I agree with Jon that KG looked pretty darn good early this year before he went down and Pierce looked awsome up until he had the knee thing done.

I'd like to think they could round back into form ( I could be wrong...)

But if they do and we make a few minor moves, we could well win another title and that would make it easier to keep who we wanted and bring in a few other guys we needed as well with Vet mins, Mid level, etc.

[Jon]

I'm wondering if KG and Pierce are just dinged up right now rather than getting old overnight. I agree with Jon that KG looked pretty darn good early this year before he went down and Pierce looked awsome up until he had the knee thing done.

I'd like to think they could round back into form ( I could be wrong...)

But if they do and we make a few minor moves, we could well win another title and that would make it easier to keep who we wanted and bring in a few other guys we needed as well with Vet mins, Mid level, etc.

And that's the thing.  We don't know if this team can recover.  But given that they have shown this year that when healthy (even minus Baby) they can be very good, I think it's worth seeing what they can do the rest of the way. 

That doesn't mean I wouldn't trade Ray or some lesser players; however, I do think we should try to keep this team as close to intact as possible. 

[vinnie]

I agree with Brick. As far as this team being "very good" earlier this year, they played one of the weakest schedules in the league to get to that 23-5 record. I also think it is being overstated in terms of how well Garnett was playing. I believe he had one good stretch of 7-10 games and believe he won NBA player of the week during that time. Other than that, he has been average at best.

Of course this team is going to play better than it has in the last 22 games -- 9-13 -- but it won't be nearly good enough to contend for the championship. If they start off with a bad west coast road trip, however, all bets are off. I think they split on this trip and end up somewhere between 50 and 55 wins and go out in the second round of the playoffs.

Danny needs to make a move to start getting younger.

[snively]

Now it looks like it all depends on Ray Allen's value and KG's health.  

If Ray's trade value is so low that he can't fetch an acceptably priced improvement before the deadline, or his offseason market value is such that he can't be resigned cheaply enough to make an MLE splash this offseason (Mike Miller, Marcus Camby, Tyrus Thomas, Al Harrington) then we're stuck with lateral movement or decline next season.

If KG continues to deteriorate, that decline becomes much sharper.

[ManUp]

I agree with Brick. As far as this team being "very good" earlier this year, they played one of the weakest schedules in the league to get to that 23-5 record. I also think it is being overstated in terms of how well Garnett was playing. I believe he had one good stretch of 7-10 games and believe he won NBA player of the week during that time. Other than that, he has been average at best.

Of course this team is going to play better than it has in the last 22 games -- 9-13 -- but it won't be nearly good enough to contend for the championship. If they start off with a bad west coast road trip, however, all bets are off. I think they split on this trip and end up somewhere between 50 and 55 wins and go out in the second round of the playoffs.

Danny needs to make a move to start getting younger.

TP, I keep hearing about how well we started the season and how great we were, but I remember not being impressed. In fact I'm pretty sure there were a few people saying the same. The truth is we were dominant for probably the 1st five games, then after that it was more like escaping with wins. When some posters noted that we weren't playing that well they were quickly directed to the standings and team record. We were good for the first 25 or so games, but not that good.

[celticinorlando]

i came into this season thinking title. and the great start justified those thoughts. but now i have revised my thinking:

1. i believe boston will win about 20 of the final 32 games they play giving them around 52-55 wins for the season.

2. i think they will hold off the raptors for the atlantic and get the 3 seed for the playoffs

3. i think we will continue to see boston struggle to close games causing massive frustrations among us all.

4. i think the injuries and the gimp of PP and KG are just something we will have all season.

5. i expect them to actually beat whoever they play in round one of the playoffs in 5....then fall in round two in 6 games to the magic.

6. i think we keep ray for the rest of the season and move into a very interesting and frightful offseason where they will basically try to rebuild an aging team with not much cap space. ray, tony, sheldon, giddens, eddie, scal could all be resigned or not retained