The Long, Slow Decline

[slamtheking]

i came into this season thinking title. and the great start justified those thoughts. but now i have revised my thinking:

1. i believe boston will win about 20 of the final 32 games they play giving them around 52-55 wins for the season.

2. i think they will hold off the raptors for the atlantic and get the 3 seed for the playoffs

3. i think we will continue to see boston struggle to close games causing massive frustrations among us all.

4. i think the injuries and the gimp of PP and KG are just something we will have all season.

5. i expect them to actually beat whoever they play in round one of the playoffs in 5....then fall in round two in 6 games to the magic.

6. i think we keep ray for the rest of the season and move into a very interesting and frightful offseason where they will basically try to rebuild an aging team with not much cap space. ray, tony, sheldon, giddens, eddie, scal could all be resigned or not retained

So in short --> we'll see more of the same.  Danny will do nothing.  We wont' beat the team we play in the second round.  He may or may not keep some of the players that have expiring contracts this year.

Not a lot of new offerings there 

[Neurotic Guy]

I don't think they will make any major trades if they don't make one now.  Three months from now, Ray Allen won't be theirs to trade, and even if he resigns with the Celtics for much less money, his trade value will be nil.

Do you think Pierce will be traded?  I don't.  I think he will retire a Celtic because he has too much marking value.  The big marketing gimmick will be watching Pierce close in on Havlicek to become the Celtics' all-time leading scorer.  The team won't win much, but Pierce will win T-Mobile player of the decade or something, and Celtics fanboys will be thrilled!
Garnett is untradeable at the moment.  Maybe someone will be doing a salary dump in the last year of his deal, and KG will become the next Theo Ratliff.  But that's three years and alot of losses away.
I suppose they could trade Rondo, but then the team would be REALLY awful.

I was feeling really depressed about the C's as I opened the blog today after work.  So I have to thank you for your pessimism -- you knocked mine right out of me.  I am in no way as resigned to a lengthy, slow decline as you are. 

First off, I am only about 50% sure that KG will not return to form in the playoffs.  If he does, the C's are a different team.  Not counting on it, but I'm not positive it won't happen.   If Danny is sure that KG is permanently a shell of his former self, then he is already in rebuild mode.  That means a move for the future will happen within the next few days and will continue in the off-season. And -- I disagree that Pierce would not be on the block; if we are rebuilding, Pierce would want to be traded, and I think Danny has no conscience about such things.  Bottom line for me: If KG returns to form, the current window is still open and if KG cannot, then DA tries to work the same magic he did in the 2007 off-season.  Depressing -- yes; but I don't feel hopeless.



 

[Jon]

I don't think they will make any major trades if they don't make one now.  Three months from now, Ray Allen won't be theirs to trade, and even if he resigns with the Celtics for much less money, his trade value will be nil.

Do you think Pierce will be traded?  I don't.  I think he will retire a Celtic because he has too much marking value.  The big marketing gimmick will be watching Pierce close in on Havlicek to become the Celtics' all-time leading scorer.  The team won't win much, but Pierce will win T-Mobile player of the decade or something, and Celtics fanboys will be thrilled!
Garnett is untradeable at the moment.  Maybe someone will be doing a salary dump in the last year of his deal, and KG will become the next Theo Ratliff.  But that's three years and alot of losses away.
I suppose they could trade Rondo, but then the team would be REALLY awful.

I was feeling really depressed about the C's as I opened the blog today after work.  So I have to thank you for your pessimism -- you knocked mine right out of me.  I am in no way as resigned to a lengthy, slow decline as you are. 

First off, I am only about 50% sure that KG will not return to form in the playoffs.  If he does, the C's are a different team.  Not counting on it, but I'm not positive it won't happen.   If Danny is sure that KG is permanently a shell of his former self, then he is already in rebuild mode.  That means a move for the future will happen within the next few days and will continue in the off-season. And -- I disagree that Pierce would not be on the block; if we are rebuilding, Pierce would want to be traded, and I think Danny has no conscience about such things.  Bottom line for me: If KG returns to form, the current window is still open and if KG cannot, then DA tries to work the same magic he did in the 2007 off-season.  Depressing -- yes; but I don't feel hopeless.



 

That's the thing.  I'm shocked by the amount of certain medical doctors on this board.  By no means is anybody who is optimistic in any way guaranteeing that they will return to form; however, how any of the pessimists out there are making these blanket statements about the future failures of this team is beyond me. 

Other than general pessimism, I fail to see any evidence PP won't return to his December form.  He's had a bunch of nagging injuries that Danny's made very clear wouldn't have kept him out of a playoff game.  While I'm not expecting KG to return to '08 form, I also wouldn't rule it out; more importantly, I don't see any reason he can't return to his December form (which was good enough for the C's to be dominant) by the playoffs.  He just hyperextended his knee. 

Could be wrong.  But I'd rather see what happens the rest of the way then give up on this team now and blow it up. 

[Rondo_is_better]

All this doom and gloom is surprising to me.  Your team is one Ray Allen trade away from being very good again.

Trust me, this sentiment is not shared by everyone on this board. 

Seriously.

[sk7326]

i'm not scurred - we knew we had to do this and we won a title.  IT WAS WORTH IT - even if we gave up a chance for Chris Paul.  IT WAS WORTH IT.  This is a curious and apprehensive time - but IT WAS WORTH IT ... slipping a bit as a contender was inevitable - and it's ok.  That said, reckoning has come a little earlier than I expected, but we had a chance to be prepared for it ...

[Reyquila]

I agree with you 100% Ak326. We did what we had to do to win a pennant after 20 years of of being a non-factor in this league. I honestly thought our big three had more gas left in their tanks but it was not to be. So be it. IT WAS WORTH IT. I dont have the slightest idea of the future of this team as is. I assume they will do somethings to improve it cause they have to make that team marketable to fill the Garden. I enjoyed tremendously the last three seasons;like Ive enjoyed watching 24. That series will also come to an end sometime. So be it. This not about pessimism. Its about 1 team winning it all this year and Id be surprised if it is us because the health issues we are having and there is absolutely no guarantee they will be back 100% - please be real. It just does not look good. The more you dream, the more frustrated you get with reality. I thought our ride would last a little longer. Well, If this is it, then be it. Thank you my beloved Celtics, for a wonderful ride. Lets start working for the next one. The best part is always getting there. The chase, and the chase and the chase. Night!

[rondohondo]

Brick , I often think you are way to negative, but I am with you on this. We aren't winning anything this year. KG look AWFUL on defense. Players now rutinely blow by him because he has no lateral movement, he can't block shots anymore, and even though he is still efficent FG% wise , his offensive game isn't close to 2 years ago either. He can't run the floor much on the fast break, can't finish alley oops and hardly gets an offensive rebound

Nate Robinson isn't going to change anything. This tean isn't making it past the 2nd rd this year and likely won't sniff another championship for another 5- 10 years.


We got the championship and we knew we had a 3 year window which has already started to close

[PosImpos]

Well, it'll be interesting to see how Danny works his way through the rebuilding process if he doesn't turn our trade assets into future pieces when he has the opportunity.

[JIMTONIK]

It's  sad,but I have to agree with the guy who opened this thread.
Celtics future is not bright, we'r going to live a lot of bad seasons.
You can have all the good intentions of this world, but there's no way to rebuild if your cap is high and you have  a lot of cooked guys with unbelieveble contracts.

[dlpin]

I'm sorry, but have you guys looked at the NBA recently?

It's not like our GM is Isiah Thomas. Teams with an ownership willing to spend into the luxury tax rebuild significantly faster. Miami was the worst team in the league 2 years, 5th seed in the playoffs last year and is one good offseason away from being a top notch title contender.

The way you guys talk about the "long decline," "a lot of bad seasons," etc. makes it seem like we have our old guys locked into 5 year deals.

We should win some 50+ games this season. If absolutely nothing else happens, probably some 40+games the next. And then all of the sudden we are significantly under the cap and with a lot of expiring deals just as the second best free agent class in a decade gets underway. Barring an ultra restrictive CBA that places a low hard cap, having an ownership willing to spend money means we wont have to suffer through something like the Gaston years.

You guys talk like this is the 05 knicks. Even if this team is done being a title contender, we will have more cap flexibility in 2011 and 2012 than the majority of other contenders.

[PosImpos]

I'm sorry, but have you guys looked at the NBA recently?

It's not like our GM is Isiah Thomas. Teams with an ownership willing to spend into the luxury tax rebuild significantly faster. Miami was the worst team in the league 2 years, 5th seed in the playoffs last year and is one good offseason away from being a top notch title contender.

The way you guys talk about the "long decline," "a lot of bad seasons," etc. makes it seem like we have our old guys locked into 5 year deals.

We should win some 50+ games this season. If absolutely nothing else happens, probably some 40+games the next. And then all of the sudden we are significantly under the cap and with a lot of expiring deals just as the second best free agent class in a decade gets underway. Barring an ultra restrictive CBA that places a low hard cap, having an ownership willing to spend money means we wont have to suffer through something like the Gaston years.

You guys talk like this is the 05 knicks. Even if this team is done being a title contender, we will have more cap flexibility in 2011 and 2012 than the majority of other contenders.

All of that is true except Miami has the luxury of being a prime free agent destination.  We do not have that luxury.  Our best chance at rebuilding in a couple years will be to trade our expirings away for picks and then tank for a year or two and hope to get lucky reloading through the draft.

[CelticG1]

Ellis and Bierdrens? Give me a break. 

[dlpin]

All of that is true except Miami has the luxury of being a prime free agent destination.  We do not have that luxury.  Our best chance at rebuilding in a couple years will be to trade our expirings away for picks and then tank for a year or two and hope to get lucky reloading through the draft.

Sure, the Miami bit matters... but it's not like they will have cap at the same time we do. And being one of a half dozen teams willing to spend to win also makes a team a prime winning destination.

Just look at the pats and red sox.

Teams willing into the luxury tax rebound a lot quicker (unless the GM is Isiah). No need for us to expect a six year plan to return to the second round of the playoffs, like the hawks did.

[Greenbean]

I'm sorry, but have you guys looked at the NBA recently?

It's not like our GM is Isiah Thomas. Teams with an ownership willing to spend into the luxury tax rebuild significantly faster. Miami was the worst team in the league 2 years, 5th seed in the playoffs last year and is one good offseason away from being a top notch title contender.

The way you guys talk about the "long decline," "a lot of bad seasons," etc. makes it seem like we have our old guys locked into 5 year deals.

We should win some 50+ games this season. If absolutely nothing else happens, probably some 40+games the next. And then all of the sudden we are significantly under the cap and with a lot of expiring deals just as the second best free agent class in a decade gets underway. Barring an ultra restrictive CBA that places a low hard cap, having an ownership willing to spend money means we wont have to suffer through something like the Gaston years.

You guys talk like this is the 05 knicks. Even if this team is done being a title contender, we will have more cap flexibility in 2011 and 2012 than the majority of other contenders.

All of that is true except Miami has the luxury of being a prime free agent destination.  We do not have that luxury.  Our best chance at rebuilding in a couple years will be to trade our expirings away for picks and then tank for a year or two and hope to get lucky reloading through the draft.

Any player who would pick Miami over Boston as a FA destination is not a player I would want on my team. Miami is warm and beautiful of course but their fan base is pathetic and their attendance is abysmal. Could you imagine the Garden EVER being only half full if we had  team with DWade  in the playoff hunt?

Miami being a "prime" FA desitination is a crock to me and an overrated point that I hear frequently.

[Greenbean]

All of that is true except Miami has the luxury of being a prime free agent destination.  We do not have that luxury.  Our best chance at rebuilding in a couple years will be to trade our expirings away for picks and then tank for a year or two and hope to get lucky reloading through the draft.

Sure, the Miami bit matters... but it's not like they will have cap at the same time we do. And being one of a half dozen teams willing to spend to win also makes a team a prime winning destination.

Just look at the pats and red sox.

Teams willing into the luxury tax rebound a lot quicker (unless the GM is Isiah). No need for us to expect a six year plan to return to the second round of the playoffs, like the hawks did.

TP exactly! We ARE a prime FA destination now and I dont see this team lottery bound any time soon. Maybe a couple of mediocre years but that is it. No killer contracts (Vin Baker etc the list goes on) = No extended cellar-dwelling