This monday morning quarter back, hindsight is 20/20 argument against people who are saying this was a bad pick is BS. There were people, Danny and myself included, who would have taken KD over GO back at draft time, and that had nothing to do with the injuries Oden would suffer over his first 3 years in the league. Lets look at some stats.
KD
Season GP MPG PPG FG% 3FG% FT% APG RPG BPG SPG
2006-07 35 35.9 25.8 47.3 40.4 81.6 1.3 11.1 1.9 1.9
GO
Season GP MPG PPG FG% 3FG% FT% APG RPG BPG SPG
2006-07 32 28.9 15.7 61.6 0.0 62.8 0.7 9.6 3.3 0.6
I still say that's not an easy choice.
Yeah you can't really blame them. No body expected Durant to have the strength to be this good in the NBA. His rebounding was good in college because he was bigger then everyone else ... Also it's much easier to find a franchise swing then a franchise big man. So sometimes you take the risk.
I'm not picking on the poster above, but they bring up two of the main arguments against durant.
1) "he was only a good rebounder because of his size in college", this one is easy ... um, how big is Oden? Are you really going to hold Durant's size against him, and say that none of that was skill? Doesn't size translate? don't they say you "can't teach size" I don't think you should hold his 6' 10" frame against him. Also, he did out-rebound the great Greg Oden on their frosh seasons by 1.5rpg... not too shabby for someone who only had "size" on his side.
2) "You always take the franchise big man over the franchise swing man", this is just ridiculous and it sounds asinine when either side uses this argument. Reminds me of some good ol' boys club, "women should be in the kitchen" type of rhetoric that's passed down by people who don't take the time to analyze the situation and just repeat the bs grand pappy told them in front of the fire over a few whiskeys ... theres examples that support both sides of this argument for swing players or big men, i think the safe thing to say in all of those situations is, it's best to take the better player regardless of position, I think if at the end of the day a GM makes his decision using this logic, they probably shouldn't be a GM in todays modern game.
Oden was the best freshman center in college basketball in at least 25 years. He was a shutdown defensive center and superb rebounder and contrary to popular belief was a credible scorer with decent post moves (he was even respectable at the line and did so using his off hand for much of the time).
This is all true. 16ppg 62%FG all with an injured wrist on his good hand. That's some phenomenal stuff offensively. Defensively he was a beast 7' 280lb-er who blocked 3.3 blocks per game and probably altered another 10. It's undeniable the impact he had. He looked incredible and his Frosh season statistics match up against sure fire HOFers.
However, Durant was a stud offensively He was giving you 26 ppg on 47% FG 40% 3PFG and 82% from the line. Standing 6'10" and being an athletic stud nearly guaranteed that these numbers would carry over into the nba once he caught up to the speed of the defenders. No one can challenge KD's shot. Also, his defense (especially help defense) is pretty underrated. Guy averaged 2 spg and 2bpg.
So looking at the college stats of these two players I'd say that there is a fairly strong argument for both. My opinion at the time was KD all the way. This was mostly from watching him play. While Greg Oden was a physical freak, KD was a 7 foot ballerina. The way he moved on the court, even in college, was mesmerizing. Like another poster said, I hadn't seen a player look that smooth in a dominating way since carmelo anthony. Right now he is absolutely my favorite player to watch in the NBA. I bought league pass for two reasons, celtics, and OKC baby!
Even looking in "hind-sight" doesn't necessarily clear the picture up. Obviously health, is a major issue, but that is probably the only thing separating the two this year. If you are able to take health issues out of the argument, you could say, as a center, GO was going to have a harder time adjusting to the league anyway, so maybe his impact would be as instantaneous as Durants, but he HAS improved each season he's been in the league, in-spite of being out his first full year.
What's more, KD has a PER of 25.36 ranking him #6 on the season, while GO had a PER of 23.43 good for 8th on the year, before he got hurt.
Lets look at some pro #'s from this year.
KD
MPG PPG FG% 3FG% FT% APG RPG BPG SPG
39.8 29.7 48.5 38 88 3 7.5 1 1.4
GO
MPG PPG FG% 3FG% FT% APG RPG BPG SPG
24 11 60 N/A 77 1 8.5 2.3 .4
KD is playing on a team where he is the center piece. I'll be it, OKC is playing great this year, and Durant is no longer the only baller on the team, but he still consistently gets to touch the ball. He is also playing about 15 mpg more then Oden this year (mostly because Oden is averaging 4 fouls in those 24 minutes, which would equal 6 PF per 36 on the season) so his statistics are going to be a bit more inflated. I think looking at their per 36 stats gives a more equal picture of the two players, where oden is putting up a more Andrew Bogut like statline, without being a center piece (like Bogut).
KD per 36
PPG FG% 3FG% FT% APG RPG BPG SPG
27 49 38 88 2.6 6.7 .8 1.3
OG per 36
PPG FG% 3FG% FT% APG RPG BPG SPG
17 60 N/A 77 1.4 13 3.4 .6
So all in all I think this is a pretty interesting comparison to make. My personal bias will always lay with Durant, but I don't think either argument is as clear cut as people make it seem. Could Durant find himself on teams that never quite have the pieces to get it done. Will his defense raise to the next level? Is he enough of a leader?
Will Oden get healthy? And if so doesn't he give you that Bogut/Kaman type force down low that could anchor any playoff team. How will his confidence recover from these injuries? are they freak or are they going to be chronic?
Neither player has reached their potential, I think it will be more fun to see where they go in their careers from here, rather then continually looking at where they've been.
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