Where does NOT trading Ray Allen leave us next season and beyond?

[Eddie20]

2012 Free Agency is the Celtics best opportunity to rebuild the roster post-Big Three if Ray does not get traded.

Any added salary to that season hurts the Celtics chances to retool on the run

That's exactly it. If we aren't able to acquire a foundation piece post big 3 (i.e. Iggy or Matin) then the next alternative is to field the best possible team until the summer of 2012. Hinirch's deal expires in 2012, Salmons and Thomas in 2011. I would rather have those three guys and a MLE player than just Allen and a MLE player.

Side note:  I'm intrigued by Thomas playing alongside KG, working with Cliff Ray, and running the break and getting lobs from Rondo. Would be a much better fit than BBD is.

[More Banners]

Good ideas about Ray.  For luxury tax purposes, would it be better to give him a partially guaranteed 3rd year than to give him the full 18 million over two years?  Would that improve our salary situation without the league thinking we're trying to get around the tax?

2012 Free Agency is the Celtics best opportunity to rebuild the roster post-Big Three if Ray does not get traded.

Any added salary to that season hurts the Celtics chances to retool on the run.

Of course, but I was wondering if it was possible under the current tax rules, since 1) Danny said at the beginning of his reign that building through free agency didn't work because you're always overpaying by outbidding other teams, and 2) a partially guaranteed contract is an incredibly good trade asset because of the potential immediate cap relief.

Something to think about, and a pretty good solution, I think.

[Spicoli]

Trading Ray for a package of Salmons, Hinrich, and Thomas would mean no title this year, and no title next year, whereas just keeping Ray would still give us a chance. Salmons and Hinrich are both mediocre players at best. Thomas is going to end up bouncing around the league before he finds his place, if ever. I'd rather go all out for one more title by keeping Ray, rather than gamble and risk not getting another shot at a title.

Like others have said, if it's not a deal which includes Iguodala, Martin, or Ellis, i would not trade Ray period.

[snively]

2012 Free Agency is the Celtics best opportunity to rebuild the roster post-Big Three if Ray does not get traded.

Any added salary to that season hurts the Celtics chances to retool on the run

That's exactly it. If we aren't able to acquire a foundation piece post big 3 (i.e. Iggy or Matin) then the next alternative is to field the best possible team until the summer of 2012. Hinirch's deal expires in 2012, Salmons and Thomas in 2011. I would rather have those three guys and a MLE player than just Allen and a MLE player.

Side note:  I'm intrigued by Thomas playing alongside KG, working with Cliff Ray, and running the break and getting lobs from Rondo. Would be a much better fit than BBD is.

I think you're overestimating Wyc's checkbook.  If we added Hinrich, Salmons and Tyrus Thomas (on his qualifying) to next year's payroll, we'd already be matching this year's bloated payroll.  Doubt ownership would be willing to adding $12 mil in post-luxury tax salary to that team with an MLE signing.

[scoop]

I think keeping Ray at least gives us a shot next year.  Trading him for guys the caliber of Hinrich kills our chances this year, as well as going forward.

That's assuming Allen settles for a 1 or 2 yr deal. We could easily have a Posey extra year type situation on our hands this summer. That's a big risk to take.

Which team is going to give Ray a larger deal?

If you're a contender, do you give Ray a three year MLE deal?

Similar to one the Celtics gave Sheed.

I would and I would be amazed if Ray doesn't receive offers of that nature.

If the Celts give him a shorter deal for a larger average annual value, I'm sure he'd be interested.

3 years at $6 million per would be $18 million so the Celtics would be paying Ray $9 million a season for two years to match it.

I'd rather overpay Ray for two seasons than conceded a third year.

I think that's the likely scenario for the C's to retain Allen.

Plus then we could keep all the trade Ray threads alive!

I think the problem may be of budgetary order. Will the Celtics spend $9 millions in Ray + the MLE or a big part of it to replace Daniels+House?

[Eddie20]

Salmons and Hinrich are both mediocre players at best.

Disagree with you there.

Ray Allen was once a great player, but right now he's just  a good player. We're overrating him based on his name. If his name were different and we just analyzed him on present day play how would that change on how he is perceived?  

[Eddie20]

2012 Free Agency is the Celtics best opportunity to rebuild the roster post-Big Three if Ray does not get traded.

Any added salary to that season hurts the Celtics chances to retool on the run

That's exactly it. If we aren't able to acquire a foundation piece post big 3 (i.e. Iggy or Matin) then the next alternative is to field the best possible team until the summer of 2012. Hinirch's deal expires in 2012, Salmons and Thomas in 2011. I would rather have those three guys and a MLE player than just Allen and a MLE player.

Side note:  I'm intrigued by Thomas playing alongside KG, working with Cliff Ray, and running the break and getting lobs from Rondo. Would be a much better fit than BBD is.

I think you're overestimating Wyc's checkbook.  If we added Hinrich, Salmons and Tyrus Thomas (on his qualifying) to next year's payroll, we'd already be matching this year's bloated payroll.  Doubt ownership would be willing to adding $12 mil in post-luxury tax salary to that team with an MLE signing.

Remember that Scal, TA, Daniels, and House would also be expiring.  Daniels is the only of that group which I would want back at anything more than the minimum.  Hinrich would mean House is not re-signed and Thomas makes BBD expendable and therefore tradable.

[Fan from VT]

2012 Free Agency is the Celtics best opportunity to rebuild the roster post-Big Three if Ray does not get traded.

Any added salary to that season hurts the Celtics chances to retool on the run

That's exactly it. If we aren't able to acquire a foundation piece post big 3 (i.e. Iggy or Matin) then the next alternative is to field the best possible team until the summer of 2012. Hinirch's deal expires in 2012, Salmons and Thomas in 2011. I would rather have those three guys and a MLE player than just Allen and a MLE player.

Side note:  I'm intrigued by Thomas playing alongside KG, working with Cliff Ray, and running the break and getting lobs from Rondo. Would be a much better fit than BBD is.

I think where it leaves us depends greatly on what Ray thinks is a pay decrease appropriate for staying in Boston. At his age, it has to be 2 years maximum to target 2012 for free agency rebuild.

Here's a thing i wrote looking at 2012 as the re-tooling target; that plan really goes away if Ray gets more than 2 years and/or paul pierce gets a big extension. There may be a way, though, to extend Pierce and Ray at very low dollars if they are willing and still add 1 max free agent, but we'll see.

http://forums.celticsblog.com/index.php?topic=33584.0

[Fafnir]

I think keeping Ray at least gives us a shot next year.  Trading him for guys the caliber of Hinrich kills our chances this year, as well as going forward.

That's assuming Allen settles for a 1 or 2 yr deal. We could easily have a Posey extra year type situation on our hands this summer. That's a big risk to take.

Which team is going to give Ray a larger deal?

If you're a contender, do you give Ray a three year MLE deal?

Similar to one the Celtics gave Sheed.

I would and I would be amazed if Ray doesn't receive offers of that nature.

If the Celts give him a shorter deal for a larger average annual value, I'm sure he'd be interested.

3 years at $6 million per would be $18 million so the Celtics would be paying Ray $9 million a season for two years to match it.

I'd rather overpay Ray for two seasons than conceded a third year.

I think that's the likely scenario for the C's to retain Allen.

Plus then we could keep all the trade Ray threads alive!

I think the problem may be of budgetary order. Will the Celtics spend $9 millions in Ray + the MLE or a big part of it to replace Daniels+House?

Yeah, that's the unknown factor.

It depends on how far we go this year probably.

[Who]

Summer of 2012

(1) Bare Minimum -- Rajon Rondo is the only player on the books at $11 million. Plus two first round draft picks + empty roster spots, let's say we're looking at an additional $7 million. $18 million total.

(2) Kendrick Perkins -- Rondo + Perk at $9 million + two draft picks + empty roster spots = $26.5 million.

(3) Pierce and Perk -- Rondo + Perkins at $9 million + Pierce at $8 million + two draft picks + empty roster spots = $34 million

(5) Pierce and Ray, No Perk -- Rondo + Pierce + Ray + two draft picks + empty roster spots = $31 million

(5) Pierce, Perk and Ray -- Rondo + Perk + Pierce + Ray at $6 million + two draft picks + empty roster spots = $39.5 million

[ManUp]

Not trading Ray this year leaves us out of contention next year. We'll be going through the motions while waiting for 2012 hoping to land someone like Durant. Why? I doubt Ray will be able to consistently produce at the level needed for this team to remain a contender and his play this year hasn't exactly been reassuring, either. I don't think this team can handle Ray going MIA in a play-off series and I fully expect it to happen. Things aren't going to get any better when he's 35 next year.

[thebirdman]

If we don`t trade Ray we are done until 2012, when KG and Sheed expire...and after that probably a few years of rebuilding, so it will be while before we can win a ring again...sad but true...

[Roy Hobbs]

If we don`t trade Ray we are done until 2012, when KG and Sheed expire...and after that probably a few years of rebuilding, so it will be while before we can win a ring again...sad but true...

Perhaps.  If we *do* trade Ray for a non-elite talent, we're definitely done next year.  If we don't trade him, at least there's a chance we could contend next year.

[Mencius]

If we don`t trade Ray we are done until 2012, when KG and Sheed expire...and after that probably a few years of rebuilding, so it will be while before we can win a ring again...sad but true...

Perhaps.  If we *do* trade Ray for a non-elite talent, we're definitely done next year.  If we don't trade him, at least there's a chance we could contend next year.

How, by adding a MLE player to the group that includes the further declining KG, PP, Sheed, and Ray if we resign him?  That's not going to make us contenders, in my view.

[Who]

Not trading Ray this year leaves us out of contention next year.

Agreed -- I don't think it's a certainty but I think it's more likely to happen that way than not.

We'll be going through the motions while waiting for 2012 hoping to land someone like Durant.

Agreed -- that final year, 2011/12, is going to be a difficult one to watch.

I don't think this team can handle Ray going MIA in a play-off series and I fully expect it to happen.

Agreed -- it's terrifying how undependable Ray is right now ... of him doing a disappearance act in the playoffs.