Where does NOT trading Ray Allen leave us next season and beyond?

[Fafnir]

I think keeping Ray at least gives us a shot next year.  Trading him for guys the caliber of Hinrich kills our chances this year, as well as going forward.

That's assuming Allen settles for a 1 or 2 yr deal. We could easily have a Posey extra year type situation on our hands this summer. That's a big risk to take.

Which team is going to give Ray a larger deal?

If you're a contender, do you give Ray a three year MLE deal?

Similar to one the Celtics gave Sheed.

I would and I would be amazed if Ray doesn't receive offers of that nature.

If the Celts give him a shorter deal for a larger average annual value, I'm sure he'd be interested.

3 years at $6 million per would be $18 million so the Celtics would be paying Ray $9 million a season for two years to match it.

I'd rather overpay Ray for two seasons than conceded a third year.

I think that's the likely scenario for the C's to retain Allen.

Plus then we could keep all the trade Ray threads alive!

[PLamb]

I think a generous offer for Ray to return if he isn't traded is a two year $14 million deal where the second year gets guaranteed based on games played and production

For instance the first year is 100% guaranteed but the second year is guaranteed for only $2 million if cut prior to a certain date

Another $2 million becomes guaranteed is he plays 60 or more games

Another $2 million becomes guaranteed if he either shoots over 40% from three point land(minimums needed to be met), scores more than 15 points per game, or shoots higher than 46% from the field for the year

The contract is fully guaranteed if he does both of the above

[PLamb]

That said the alternatives are not pretty if all we have is the MLE

Manu Ginobelli - good luck getting him to leave SA for $5 million a year
Kyle Korver - not a starter and if people complain about Ray's defense wait for the reaction when they see this guy playing D every night
Roger Mason - last year this would have seemd an okay option, this year his FT shooting has nosed dived and he spent most of the first two months of the season ion a horrible slump, still an option but definitely not an upgrade
Raja Bell - and people think Ray is old, Bell is only 4 months younger than Ray and still not half the player
Flip Murray - please no
Josh Howard - he won't sign for the MLE and he loves his weed way to much to be a great player
Anthony Morrow - GS or whoever he gets traded to will match as he is restricted but he is a mediocre defender at best, has a poor handle and isn't as athletically gifted as some would have you believe, he can however shoot the lights out
Ricky Davis - been there, done that and he sucks now
Quentin Richardson - a platoon starter at best that if you had him AND Morrow that would be okay, but no future exists there
Devin Brown - bench player at best
JJ Reddick - Magic match so fast your head will spin
Ronnie Brewer - same here
Mike Miller - the ONLY viable option, IMO because then the only guy left is
Tony Allen - nuff said

[snively]

If we can resign Ray for cheap enough to get Danny a green light from ownership to spend the MLE and retain some key players (House and TA or Daniels), then there are some real chances for improvement next season without a juicy Ray trade.

There are some enticing prospects out there for the full MLE and split MLE signings:


Full MLE:
Mike Miller, consummate offensive utility player who improves our rebounding.

Tyrus Thomas, a Josh Smith/Gerald Wallace late-bloomer or a Stromile Swift bust; could be the athletic 3/4 needed to compensate for Paul and KG's declining athleticism.

Al Harrington, the Jamal Crawford of big men, could give us a legit go-to option off the bench.

Luke Ridnour, the true PG the bench has been missing, though the contract year production bump and defensive incompatibility with Rondo make him a bit too pricy.

Marcus Camby, the rebounding force that the bench sorely needs, but the money already locked up in 4/5s who struggle against quick forwards makes it unlikely.

Josh Howard, a buy-low option coming off a horrid season.  If he could regain any of his former efficiency and defensive prowess he could be a steal.

Travis Outlaw, a bit of a reach at the MLE, but a versatile player who again fills some of the athleticism gap at the 3/4.


Split MLE:

Raja Bell (great shooter, good defender), Amir Johnson (foul-prone but enticing, rebounding + defensive potential are top-notch; maybe in line for a Ramon Sessions type deal), Roger Mason (bit of a chucker but very versatile), Steve Blake (solid all-around PG), Dorell Wright (I think he's developing into a solid role-player), Kyle Korver (marksman due for a paycut).

---------

The key is to resign Ray at an affordable price.  Replacing Ray and filling bench holes is just too much need to fill with the MLE

[snively]

That said the alternatives are not pretty if all we have is the MLE

Manu Ginobelli - good luck getting him to leave SA for $5 million a year
Kyle Korver - not a starter and if people complain about Ray's defense wait for the reaction when they see this guy playing D every night
Roger Mason - last year this would have seemd an okay option, this year his FT shooting has nosed dived and he spent most of the first two months of the season ion a horrible slump, still an option but definitely not an upgrade
Raja Bell - and people think Ray is old, Bell is only 4 months younger than Ray and still not half the player
Flip Murray - please no
Josh Howard - he won't sign for the MLE and he loves his weed way to much to be a great player
Anthony Morrow - GS or whoever he gets traded to will match as he is restricted but he is a mediocre defender at best, has a poor handle and isn't as athletically gifted as some would have you believe, he can however shoot the lights out
Ricky Davis - been there, done that and he sucks now
Quentin Richardson - a platoon starter at best that if you had him AND Morrow that would be okay, but no future exists there
Devin Brown - bench player at best
JJ Reddick - Magic match so fast your head will spin
Ronnie Brewer - same here
Mike Miller - the ONLY viable option, IMO because then the only guy left is
Tony Allen - nuff said

I agree.  Without Ray it would be Mike Miller or bust.

Although I do think you're underselling Raja Bell a bit.  He's a better defender than Ray and just as deadly a spot-up shooter.  Definitely not the 6th man that Ray can be, but I think you could plug him into the starting line-up without losing much. 

And if we really wanted JJ Redick for the MLE (I don't) I think the Magic would think twice about matching, especially if they don't make it to the finals this year.  They are spending a ton of money to be perennial pretenders.

[Brickowski]

This thread is one if the best arguments I've seen for trading Ray now.

[More Banners]

Good ideas about Ray.  For luxury tax purposes, would it be better to give him a partially guaranteed 3rd year than to give him the full 18 million over two years?  Would that improve our salary situation without the league thinking we're trying to get around the tax?

Salaries for the rest of the bench will need to be different than now.  I don't think teams will be able or willing to pay many bench players more than the minimum.  And isn't a million bucks a year to play basketball a pretty good living anyway?

[snively]

This thread is one if the best arguments I've seen for trading Ray now.

Only if that trade doesn't make us worse this year.  While I wouldn't be completely dismayed if it went down, the Salmons/Hinrich/Thomas trade certainly isn't a sure thing to make us better this year.  It would involve a pretty major gamble that Hinrich could get his shooting back to respectable levels and Tyrus Thomas could forge a place in the rotation.

[EJPLAYA]

Unless you can get a young 2 guard that can fill his spot and is signed for a reasonable amount of money it makes no sense to trade him. (and if that were the case why would the other team want to get rid of a guy like that) Once Daniels is back in the lineup he will get better since his minutes will go down. His legs are tired which is why he is struggling.

Ray has already said that he is willing to come back to us next year for a huge reduction in pay. He has said he isn't all concerned about minutes or starting. This is EXACTLY why you keep the guy and then use that money for a couple guys next year. Trading Ray unless the situation is perfect is a TERRIBLE idea.

[Eddie20]

If we don't make a deal and our forced to offer Allen more money so he gets 2 yrs instead of more is that really a good decision? If we give him 18M for 2 years, then we will be paying a lot of money to the 36 & 37 year old version of him. And that doesn't even factor in the dollar for dollar luxury tax that the larger yearly figure has.

This also doesn't ensure us of anything. Would he be more comfortable taking a 4yr MLE deal from NY if they do get LeBron? He would be close to his home, be on a contending team, and not have to deal with the uncertainty of trade rumors again? Chicago could be another option for him. If they do sign a big star (i.e. Bosh) then they would be cap strapped for years anyways. So why not give Allen an extra year or two (making it a 3 or 4 yr deal) so he does sign for the MLE?

[PLamb]

Gotta take into effect a possible lockout in 2011-12

If Ray signs a two year deal, will he even see any money from the second year if the lockout lasts the season

If there is an extended period of the season lost, would Ray be even willing to come back after sitting the better part of 6-9 months not playing ball

The Ray Allen contract and Pierce's for that matter will definitely be ingrained with the pending work stoppage, that is for sure

[jambr380]

This thread is one if the best arguments I've seen for trading Ray now.

I agree that the thread title is a good argument, but Snively's list of possible MLE replacements makes me feel a little better. Ray still has a lot left in the tank and if we can get him in a two year deal, then we have him next year and he becomes extremely tradeable the next. Bringing in someone like Mike Miller, who is actually a very good player playing on bad teams (as of late) would be a fantastic addition and would allow us to limit Ray's minutes.

[Eddie20]

Ray has already said that he is willing to come back to us next year for a huge reduction in pay. He has said he isn't all concerned about minutes or starting. This is EXACTLY why you keep the guy and then use that money for a couple guys next year. Trading Ray unless the situation is perfect is a TERRIBLE idea.

What exactly is a "huge reduction" when he is making nearly 20M this year? 10M per yr. is a huge reduction, but that's not a good deal for our team.

We can allow him to expire and still not have any money , besides the MLE, to sign a player. Remember the cap is also going to be reduced.

[Who]

Good ideas about Ray.  For luxury tax purposes, would it be better to give him a partially guaranteed 3rd year than to give him the full 18 million over two years?  Would that improve our salary situation without the league thinking we're trying to get around the tax?

2012 Free Agency is the Celtics best opportunity to rebuild the roster post-Big Three if Ray does not get traded.

Any added salary to that season hurts the Celtics chances to retool on the run.

[wdleehi]

Go big after one of the one of the FA that would be interested in winning a title with Pierce and KG.  Then sign and trade Ray for that player and a bad contract.  Depending on the player, include draft picks and the decent bench role players that are somewhat young.





Also, a lot depends on this years playoffs.  

If the Celtics win that title, then I could see Ray back on a one to two year contract at 9-11 million per.


If the Celtics do not win a title, Ray only comes back at a closer to an MLE contract with the MLE used to bring in a Mike Miller.