Ray Allen

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  First of all it's not necessarily true that you'll have 2 days rest between games. Last year, after the 1st game, we probably had 2 days rest once and 1 days rest 12 times. But winning in 4-5 games might help. Secondly, I don't know that you can automatically assume it's a minutes thing. Will Ray's numbers improve in back to back games if he plays 30 minutes instead of 38 or will the resultss be similar?
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While you are correct, we must admit that some circumstantial evidence is very strong.  The numbers based on days of rest suggest that rest is likely a strong factor affecting performance, but that may or may not mean he would be more productive overall if limited to no more than 30/game.  I'd say, based on those figures, it's worth a try, without a doublt.  I'd also say, based on observing Doc's rotations over these years, that there is zero chance of that happening...

Another idea:  Anybody know where I can find FG% by quarter? 

[Jon]

A lot of good points here. 

My quick thoughts: yes Ray is getting older, yes Ray is likely slipping defensively, and yes Doc is probably playing him too much.  However, that doesn't account for his shooting woes: Ray will be able to hit jumpers when he's 50. 

At some point this season, he will catch fire.  And then, look out. 

[BASS_THUMPER]

ray is still a healthy starter...as Jon said he will get that butta on that roll back...

[BballTim]

  First of all it's not necessarily true that you'll have 2 days rest between games. Last year, after the 1st game, we probably had 2 days rest once and 1 days rest 12 times. But winning in 4-5 games might help. Secondly, I don't know that you can automatically assume it's a minutes thing. Will Ray's numbers improve in back to back games if he plays 30 minutes instead of 38 or will the resultss be similar?

While you are correct, we must admit that some circumstantial evidence is very strong.  The numbers based on days of rest suggest that rest is likely a strong factor affecting performance, but that may or may not mean he would be more productive overall if limited to no more than 30/game.  I'd say, based on those figures, it's worth a try, without a doublt.  I'd also say, based on observing Doc's rotations over these years, that there is zero chance of that happening...

Another idea:  Anybody know where I can find FG% by quarter? 

  That's funny. I spent about 5 minutes looking for those stats and gave up. If you can show that his production drops late in the game you'd have a better case. This is yet another stat that was on 82games last year but has fallen by the wayside. On the other hand, Ray's clutch stats are much better than his normal stats.