A Harsh Assessment of 2009-10: The Window is Closed

[radiohead]

I think the window isn't totally closed, but it would need a Houston-like (were they #6 when they won it all?) effort for the C's to win the championship. With the way they are playing now,it's pretty clear that they can't match up with the Cavs, or even the Hawks for that matter. The Lakers and the Magic seem to be "better" match ups for our team. But then again, it would take a real masterful performance to beat those teams in a 7 game series without home court advantage. The best case scenario would be for the C's to get healthy, gain confidence as the playoffs get underway,and surprise everyone by peaking during the finals. However, the harsh reality seems to point otherwise. If they continue playing like they are now, we may be headed to an early exit. Sad but true.   

[Who]

I'm increasingly afraid that at some point we'll no longer be able to deny that this idea of "putting it all together and getting healthy" is nothing more than a fairy tale.

I think it's real. I'm just not sure it'll happen, in fact, I think it's very unlikely to happen.

[slamtheking]

Wow, Delpin, then all is well and we have nothing to worry about. We will win with Stats. We dont have to win by scoring more points that the other team. Seems its not important that we cannot beat them, as long as we keep their averages lower against us. WE wont win this year but we will have the best defense; thats all that matters. New way of looking at this season. Ill buy that. 

The problem with your argument is that you are using 1-sided stats.  While it's encouraging that the C's apparently hold other teams' scoring down, you're missing an equally or more important stat---the other teams are keeping the C's scoring even lower. 

Hence, the C's lose those games regardless of the defensive statistics they may be putting up.  That's what impacts the most important statistic of all -->Won/Loss record.

Why don't the two of you read the whole thread before commenting and being snarky?

Where did I say anything that either of you imply I said? Where did I say anything about the team going to win it all, or anything being fine?

I did read it and I'm not being snarky, unlike your post.  You should follow your own advice and read what I posted again. 

I addressed your statement that the C's are a good defensive based on their points against statistics.  I didn't put any words in your mouth.  I offered a legitimate counterpoint to your viewpoint.  Look at the other side of the equation which is how are the other teams limiting the C's offensively.  If the C's defense were sufficient enough to win, their record would be much better than it is.

[dlpin]

I did read it and I'm not being snarky, unlike your post.  You should follow your own advice and read what I posted again. 

I addressed your statement that the C's are a good defensive based on their points against statistics.  I didn't put any words in your mouth.  I offered a legitimate counterpoint to your viewpoint.  Look at the other side of the equation which is how are the other teams limiting the C's offensively.  If the C's defense were sufficient enough to win, their record would be much better than it is.

Except that I didn't say at any point that the celtics defense was enough to win. So your counterpoint was to a point I NEVER MADE.

Someone said that the problem was defense, another person said that we were #1 in defense, the first person said that we were #1 because of our efforts against sub par competition. I merely pointed out that our defense was pretty good against some of the top teams. At no point I ever said anything about being enough, and even agreed with the a poster who pointed out that we still lost most of those games where we played good defense, which pointed to offense being the problem.

[slamtheking]

I did read it and I'm not being snarky, unlike your post.  You should follow your own advice and read what I posted again. 

I addressed your statement that the C's are a good defensive based on their points against statistics.  I didn't put any words in your mouth.  I offered a legitimate counterpoint to your viewpoint.  Look at the other side of the equation which is how are the other teams limiting the C's offensively.  If the C's defense were sufficient enough to win, their record would be much better than it is.

Except that I didn't say at any point that the celtics defense was enough to win. So your counterpoint was to a point I NEVER MADE.

Someone said that the problem was defense, another person said that we were #1 in defense, the first person said that we were #1 because of our efforts against sub par competition. I merely pointed out that our defense was pretty good against some of the top teams. At no point I ever said anything about being enough, and even agreed with the a poster who pointed out that we still lost most of those games where we played good defense, which pointed to offense being the problem.

Again, I didn't put any words in your mouth.  Please reread my post.  I didn't say that you said it was enough.  I'm providing a counterpoint to the statement that they play "pretty good" defense against top teams.  My point is that they may play good enough defense to drop the other teams' scoring totals but the other teams also drop the C's scoring totals--->only they do it better to the point where the C's end up losing the game.

If you agreed with someone else that offense is an issue, I missed that.  My apologies for not seeing absolutely everything you stated and only replying the post that offered up a point I didn't agree with.

[SamuelAdams]

Most of us think the Celts can't just turn it on at playoff time.  The players think they can. The players believe they would have won it all with a healthy KG last year. Don't we all?

 I'm going to give them the benefit of the doubt for now.

[Andy Jick]

i'm not...  if perk's recent quote is true, then this team does not have the confidence in themselves to do that.  they're struggles have become a self-fulfilling prophecy.  this team no longer believes they can just flip on the switch...they have no faith in their ability to do so.

[BballTim]

i'm not...  if perk's recent quote is true, then this team does not have the confidence in themselves to do that.  they're struggles have become a self-fulfilling prophecy.  this team no longer believes they can just flip on the switch...they have no faith in their ability to do so.

  Some of that's been going on, but there's no reason to assume it's a permanent situation. All they need to do is get on a roll and all those issues will be forgotten.

[Birdbrain]

I still believe the window is slightly ajar.  The key to me is getting is the 3rd spot and playing Orlando in 2nd round as opposed to Cleveland.  Then having Cleveland duke it out with Atlanta (hopefully) and meeting Cleveland or Atlanta in the ECF.  Now obviously they would have to get by Orlando who has played them well but, I still don't think they would beat this Celtic team with everyone available.  If those things happen I think we have less than average shot at making the Finals.  And if by the slim chance we get by Cleveland I'm hoping for LA and not Denver who would mitigate the C's advantage over LA at the PG position.

[Q_FBE]

I'm not totally giving up on the team but I think they are a longshot to win the championship. They cannot win consistently on their HC and their record against top teams is abysmal.

[Jon]

I won't knock this post anymore than I knocked it the first time around.  These past two games don't prove anymore than two critical games we lost earlier in the year. 

My only contention is that this team is clearly going to make the playoffs, and likely with the 3 or 4 seed.  And in the playoffs, anything can happen.  Even if we were to suppose Cleveland is the better team, in an average 7 game series, this team could still take 2-3 games.  And if we're hot/lucky enough, anything can happen. 

[dark_lord]

My only contention is that this team is clearly going to make the playoffs, and likely with the 3 or 4 seed.  And in the playoffs, anything can happen.  Even if we were to suppose Cleveland is the better team, in an average 7 game series, this team could still take 2-3 games.  And if we're hot/lucky enough, anything can happen. 

ur exactly right!

[drza44]

I find the prevailing attitude around here fascinating.  I've written several long semi-articles on the subject so I'll refrain from that here, I'll simply say that there are numerous logical possible reasons for why the team has looked like it has for the last few months besides "the window is closed".  Yet, the vast majority of the posts that I see focus more and more on that one possibility to the exclusion of all others.

I was already eagerly anticipating the playoffs with the thought that the team would finally get the chance to prove 2 years worth of external doubters wrong.  I've never quite seen a dynamic where a potential contender also has to prove the majority of their own fan base wrong as well.  The next month can't go by quick enough for me.

[jdpapa3]

I don't know why you guys went after drza for my comment about the team being the number one defense. But to reiterate my point, the defense is the best in the league. Do I think that is enough? No. I think the offense has a ways to go against the good teams and the scoring lulls/turnovers lead to those characteristic runs that we suffer. But I do find it funny when people do attack the defense. It's amazing to me that the defense has been able to stay top notch when you consider how many games Pierce/KG missed and the bad spot that our turnovers put us in.

[Bahku]

I have to concur with the prevailing attitude of the last three-or-so posts. The Celtics have been their own worst enemy this year, as well as falling victim to a number of major team-affecting injuries ... they have played poorly and half-heartedly on a number of occasions, on both ends of the floor, but some have turned these things into "The Celtics stink and have no chance", and I just don't get it. When they put their minds to it and when they're relatively healthy, they can play defense as well as they did two years ago, have just as much offensively, and can beat anyone in the NBA. The whole key to the playoffs will be what shape they're in at the end of the regular season, whether or not they can maintain consistency in their execution, whether or not everyone is healthy, and whether or not Nate and Michael have had enough time to get in sync with what this team is doing ... NOT whether or not they're a good enough team. The window is far from closed.