A Harsh Assessment of 2009-10: The Window is Closed

[MF Doom]

What if we traded Daniels instead of tony allen? Expiring contract and is more effective than allen. I think al harrington would more than make up for the loss of daniels. He would add alot more to the team that daniels didnt. But just a thought..

[MetroGlobe]

  We don't need him to get back to 2008 KG to have a shot at the title. Just December 2009 KG.

See I think that's false.  Our opponents have improved their rosters while ours has degraded.  Dec 2009 KG would definitely be an improvement over what we're seeing from him these days.  But it's not nearly enough.

However even if it were enough, what makes you think Kevin is going to randomly return to that level in the middle of the season, at his age?  I just don't see it happening.

[moiso]

I think the Celtics bench can be fine once the KG issue is better.

What does this mean exactly?  How will the "KG issue" get better?  Dude, you are kidding yourself if you think he is going to ever return to the form he has played at in the past.  He is DONE.  His career is over.  He is trying to giving us one more shot this year, and trying with all his might to overcome his deficiencies. 

But we all need to come to grips with the fact that Kevin Garnett is nothing more than a role player at this point, and that he is going to retire at the end of the season.  I have no doubt whatsoever that KG will retire this summer.  Players his age do not suddenly regain their athleticism and health after sitting out for 3 weeks.  Even if we sat him out for a few more weeks before the playoffs, he will not revert back to top form.  He's going to fight the good fight this spring as we futilely attempt to win another banner.  But we will never get past the elite teams and likely won't even make it to the finals.  Either way, this is Kevin's last year in the NBA.

Can you show me the doctor report that says "KG is done" or is this just your opinion since KG just came back from an injury and has not yet played to that level?

Can you show me a precedent where a player at his age magically rehabbed a recurring injury during the season, and got back to playing at the level he was 2 years ago???!???!  When has that ever happened?  The guy can barely move.  He's giving us his all because he doesn't want to let anybody down, and he's got the heart of a true warrior.  But what we see is what we got - Kevin Garnett is done.  And will retire this summer.

  We don't need him to get back to 2008 KG to have a shot at the title. Just December 2009 KG.

I agree.

[Chris]

  We don't need him to get back to 2008 KG to have a shot at the title. Just December 2009 KG.

See I think that's false.  Our opponents have improved their rosters while ours has degraded.  Dec 2009 KG would definitely be an improvement over what we're seeing from him these days.  But it's not nearly enough.

However even if it were enough, what makes you think Kevin is going to randomly return to that level in the middle of the season, at his age?  I just don't see it happening.

I think it is absolutely true.  And I also think the C's roster is significantly better after KG.  Wallace is a HUGE upgrade over Mikki Moore, POB, and yes, even Leon Powe.  Glen Davis as a 4th big is very good.  Daniels is twice the player any wing we had off the bench last year was, and if he can stay healthy, can be just as much of an impact player as Posey.  And even Tony Allen has been playing decent basketball (though I don't want him near the floor in the playoffs).

And that isn't even mentioning the improvements in Perk and Rondo's games.

If KG can play like he did in December, this is absolutely a contender.  But I just worry that he will not be there come May.

[KungPoweChicken]

  We don't need him to get back to 2008 KG to have a shot at the title. Just December 2009 KG.

See I think that's false.  Our opponents have improved their rosters while ours has degraded.  Dec 2009 KG would definitely be an improvement over what we're seeing from him these days.  But it's not nearly enough.

However even if it were enough, what makes you think Kevin is going to randomly return to that level in the middle of the season, at his age?  I just don't see it happening.

I think it is absolutely true.  And I also think the C's roster is significantly better after KG.  Wallace is a HUGE upgrade over Mikki Moore, POB, and yes, even Leon Powe.  Glen Davis as a 4th big is very good.  Daniels is twice the player any wing we had off the bench last year was, and if he can stay healthy, can be just as much of an impact player as Posey.  And even Tony Allen has been playing decent basketball (though I don't want him near the floor in the playoffs).

And that isn't even mentioning the improvements in Perk and Rondo's games.

If KG can play like he did in December, this is absolutely a contender.  But I just worry that he will not be there come May.

Wow. Hyperbole! Daniels is twice the player Tony Allen is? Twice? Strong words for two players who have nearly identical career stats. Rasheed Wallace is a "HUGE" upgrade over Leon Powe? Yeah, this would be true--circa 2003. But this is 2010. Do you watch the games? Wallace is the laziest player in the league. He's terrible, terrible, terrible, with help defense. And we all know Rasheed loves taking shots he just doesn't have the capability of making. He shoots 40% from the field and 30% from three. If Leon Powe returns to his old self, I wouldn't even have to think about it; give me Powe instead of Rasheed.

[snively]

  We don't need him to get back to 2008 KG to have a shot at the title. Just December 2009 KG.

See I think that's false.  Our opponents have improved their rosters while ours has degraded.  Dec 2009 KG would definitely be an improvement over what we're seeing from him these days.  But it's not nearly enough.

However even if it were enough, what makes you think Kevin is going to randomly return to that level in the middle of the season, at his age?  I just don't see it happening.

I think it is absolutely true.  And I also think the C's roster is significantly better after KG.  Wallace is a HUGE upgrade over Mikki Moore, POB, and yes, even Leon Powe.  Glen Davis as a 4th big is very good.  Daniels is twice the player any wing we had off the bench last year was, and if he can stay healthy, can be just as much of an impact player as Posey.  And even Tony Allen has been playing decent basketball (though I don't want him near the floor in the playoffs).

And that isn't even mentioning the improvements in Perk and Rondo's games.

If KG can play like he did in December, this is absolutely a contender.  But I just worry that he will not be there come May.

Wow. Hyperbole! Daniels is twice the player Tony Allen is? Twice? Strong words for two players who have nearly identical career stats. Rasheed Wallace is a "HUGE" upgrade over Leon Powe? Yeah, this would be true--circa 2003. But this is 2010. Do you watch the games? Wallace is the laziest player in the league. He's terrible, terrible, terrible, with help defense. And we all know Rasheed loves taking shots he just doesn't have the capability of making. He shoots 40% from the field and 30% from three. If Leon Powe returns to his old self, I wouldn't even have to think about it; give me Powe instead of Rasheed.

I agree.  Amazingly, TA has been equal to or better than Daniels thus far this season.  And Sheed, while better than Moore/Scal, has been all kinds of disappointing.  Leon's (pre-injury) fantastic rebounding, quick-footed D and high-percentage scoring would be far more valuable to this team than Sheed's mediocre rebounding, slow-footed D and ridiculously inefficient scoring.

That said, I do agree that getting KG back at early season levels would vault us back into contention, not because we'd be better than last year, but because the rest of the league is so underwhelming.

The Magic are showing lots of weaknesses with the VC trade fizzling, the Hawks are a flawed team that is depending on Jamal Crawford as a key piece (it's worked against us, but not a great long-term strategy), the Cavs haven't really improved with the Shaq trade and juggle too many deeply flawed players through their rotation, the Lakers are surprisingly slow and one-dimensional on offense and have played poorly on the road, and the Spurs, Mavs and Nuggets haven't shown that they can do anything more than they did last year.

The 07/08 team would have blown away this crop of pretenders. 

[MetroGlobe]

  We don't need him to get back to 2008 KG to have a shot at the title. Just December 2009 KG.

See I think that's false.  Our opponents have improved their rosters while ours has degraded.  Dec 2009 KG would definitely be an improvement over what we're seeing from him these days.  But it's not nearly enough.

However even if it were enough, what makes you think Kevin is going to randomly return to that level in the middle of the season, at his age?  I just don't see it happening.

I think it is absolutely true.  And I also think the C's roster is significantly better after KG.  Wallace is a HUGE upgrade over Mikki Moore, POB, and yes, even Leon Powe.  Glen Davis as a 4th big is very good.  Daniels is twice the player any wing we had off the bench last year was, and if he can stay healthy, can be just as much of an impact player as Posey.  And even Tony Allen has been playing decent basketball (though I don't want him near the floor in the playoffs).

And that isn't even mentioning the improvements in Perk and Rondo's games.

If KG can play like he did in December, this is absolutely a contender.  But I just worry that he will not be there come May.

Wow. Hyperbole! Daniels is twice the player Tony Allen is? Twice? Strong words for two players who have nearly identical career stats. Rasheed Wallace is a "HUGE" upgrade over Leon Powe? Yeah, this would be true--circa 2003. But this is 2010. Do you watch the games? Wallace is the laziest player in the league. He's terrible, terrible, terrible, with help defense. And we all know Rasheed loves taking shots he just doesn't have the capability of making. He shoots 40% from the field and 30% from three. If Leon Powe returns to his old self, I wouldn't even have to think about it; give me Powe instead of Rasheed.

Ray Allen is a spot-up shooter who is constantly getting torched on defense, and can no longer create his own shot on offense.  Paul Pierce is no longer rebounding at a high rate and can no longer provide that shut down defense he was giving us in '08.  So whatever strides Perk and Rondo have made, it has been negated by the rapid decline in the other 3 starters.

At the same time, Cleveland, LA and Atlanta have each improved (Orlando is about the same).  Our window is closed without a significant trade to alter the starting lineup.  It is not possible to win a championship with one aging star (Pierce) and 4 role players.  Rondo is approaching legit stardom, but he is not there yet.  Ray Allen has to be traded.  There is no other option to improve the team this year.

And then of course if KG does retire this summer like I have postulated, what are the salary cap implications of that?

[BballTim]

  We don't need him to get back to 2008 KG to have a shot at the title. Just December 2009 KG.

See I think that's false.  Our opponents have improved their rosters while ours has degraded.  Dec 2009 KG would definitely be an improvement over what we're seeing from him these days.  But it's not nearly enough.

However even if it were enough, what makes you think Kevin is going to randomly return to that level in the middle of the season, at his age?  I just don't see it happening.

  First of all our roster hasn't degraded much as Perk and Rondo are significantly better. And we were head and shoulders above the league in 08. We aren't now, but we can still win. And why would it be random for KG to return to the level he was playing a month ago? Are you claiming that when players miss part of the regular season they rarely if ever get back to form? If you want to say KG will never be 2008 kg again I agree. If you want to say that KG will never again get to his form from last month that's a little more of a knee jerk reaction to his first few games back.

[BballTim]

  We don't need him to get back to 2008 KG to have a shot at the title. Just December 2009 KG.

See I think that's false.  Our opponents have improved their rosters while ours has degraded.  Dec 2009 KG would definitely be an improvement over what we're seeing from him these days.  But it's not nearly enough.

However even if it were enough, what makes you think Kevin is going to randomly return to that level in the middle of the season, at his age?  I just don't see it happening.

I think it is absolutely true.  And I also think the C's roster is significantly better after KG.  Wallace is a HUGE upgrade over Mikki Moore, POB, and yes, even Leon Powe.  Glen Davis as a 4th big is very good.  Daniels is twice the player any wing we had off the bench last year was, and if he can stay healthy, can be just as much of an impact player as Posey.  And even Tony Allen has been playing decent basketball (though I don't want him near the floor in the playoffs).

And that isn't even mentioning the improvements in Perk and Rondo's games.

If KG can play like he did in December, this is absolutely a contender.  But I just worry that he will not be there come May.

Wow. Hyperbole! Daniels is twice the player Tony Allen is? Twice? Strong words for two players who have nearly identical career stats. Rasheed Wallace is a "HUGE" upgrade over Leon Powe? Yeah, this would be true--circa 2003. But this is 2010. Do you watch the games? Wallace is the laziest player in the league. He's terrible, terrible, terrible, with help defense. And we all know Rasheed loves taking shots he just doesn't have the capability of making. He shoots 40% from the field and 30% from three. If Leon Powe returns to his old self, I wouldn't even have to think about it; give me Powe instead of Rasheed.

I agree.  Amazingly, TA has been equal to or better than Daniels thus far this season.  And Sheed, while better than Moore/Scal, has been all kinds of disappointing.  Leon's (pre-injury) fantastic rebounding, quick-footed D and high-percentage scoring would be far more valuable to this team than Sheed's mediocre rebounding, slow-footed D and ridiculously inefficient scoring.

  Pretty sure he was talking about the 08-09 TA. TA himself is easily twice that player. Daniels probably is too.

[BballTim]

  We don't need him to get back to 2008 KG to have a shot at the title. Just December 2009 KG.

See I think that's false.  Our opponents have improved their rosters while ours has degraded.  Dec 2009 KG would definitely be an improvement over what we're seeing from him these days.  But it's not nearly enough.

However even if it were enough, what makes you think Kevin is going to randomly return to that level in the middle of the season, at his age?  I just don't see it happening.

I think it is absolutely true.  And I also think the C's roster is significantly better after KG.  Wallace is a HUGE upgrade over Mikki Moore, POB, and yes, even Leon Powe.  Glen Davis as a 4th big is very good.  Daniels is twice the player any wing we had off the bench last year was, and if he can stay healthy, can be just as much of an impact player as Posey.  And even Tony Allen has been playing decent basketball (though I don't want him near the floor in the playoffs).

And that isn't even mentioning the improvements in Perk and Rondo's games.

If KG can play like he did in December, this is absolutely a contender.  But I just worry that he will not be there come May.

Wow. Hyperbole! Daniels is twice the player Tony Allen is? Twice? Strong words for two players who have nearly identical career stats. Rasheed Wallace is a "HUGE" upgrade over Leon Powe? Yeah, this would be true--circa 2003. But this is 2010. Do you watch the games? Wallace is the laziest player in the league. He's terrible, terrible, terrible, with help defense. And we all know Rasheed loves taking shots he just doesn't have the capability of making. He shoots 40% from the field and 30% from three. If Leon Powe returns to his old self, I wouldn't even have to think about it; give me Powe instead of Rasheed.

Ray Allen is a spot-up shooter who is constantly getting torched on defense, and can no longer create his own shot on offense.  Paul Pierce is no longer rebounding at a high rate and can no longer provide that shut down defense he was giving us in '08.  So whatever strides Perk and Rondo have made, it has been negated by the rapid decline in the other 3 starters.

At the same time, Cleveland, LA and Atlanta have each improved (Orlando is about the same).  Our window is closed without a significant trade to alter the starting lineup.  It is not possible to win a championship with one aging star (Pierce) and 4 role players.  Rondo is approaching legit stardom, but he is not there yet.  Ray Allen has to be traded.  There is no other option to improve the team this year.

And then of course if KG does retire this summer like I have postulated, what are the salary cap implications of that?

  Cleveland and LA are both a little behind where they were at this point last year. Orlando's well behind where they were. Cleveland's picking it up lately but none of them are improved from last year.

[MetroGlobe]

  We don't need him to get back to 2008 KG to have a shot at the title. Just December 2009 KG.

See I think that's false.  Our opponents have improved their rosters while ours has degraded.  Dec 2009 KG would definitely be an improvement over what we're seeing from him these days.  But it's not nearly enough.

However even if it were enough, what makes you think Kevin is going to randomly return to that level in the middle of the season, at his age?  I just don't see it happening.

  First of all our roster hasn't degraded much as Perk and Rondo are significantly better. And we were head and shoulders above the league in 08. We aren't now, but we can still win. And why would it be random for KG to return to the level he was playing a month ago? Are you claiming that when players miss part of the regular season they rarely if ever get back to form? If you want to say KG will never be 2008 kg again I agree. If you want to say that KG will never again get to his form from last month that's a little more of a knee jerk reaction to his first few games back.

It's not a knee jerk reaction.  KG's knee is totally FUBAR.  The organization lied/covered it up.  He's trying as hard as he can, but effort alone cannot compensate for a knee joint that cannot straighten out (i.e. the jumping motion) with any force or power.  This is not going to magically repair itself between now and April.  His career is over and the window is closed.

More than anything I want to be dead wrong about this.  And if that ends up being the case, I will search out this post and add a mea culpa to the end of it.  But that's not going to be necessary, because 35 year old players do not recover from debilitating injuries in any way other than a token capacity.  And a token KG is not enough to propel us to banner 18.

[More Banners]

Let me digress to the "characteristics of championship teams" idea...someone who is not a superstar always seems to step up and play out of their mind; the superstar role player.

Perhaps "superstar role player" is what KG and Ray are becoming at this stage of their career...they make key plays at important times, don't screw up too much, but can't carry a team anymore.  Just a thought.  A team built with a bunch of superstar roll players would need to be pretty deep, with little drop off in talent, and have everyone play out of their minds and play together.  That team might have a shot against anyone in 7 games.  (It would also look a lot like the Rockets this year.)  We know that, 1-5, we look pretty good, but we also know that isn't enough.  (we'd look better 1-5 if 6-9 could relieve them some, or even increase the lead while they're in).

Our bench is currently not getting it done to that level.  Tony is actually showing potential to be a really good role player, but I'm still not very confident in him.  I think Sheed could do it, and, since we're stuck with him, I really hope so.  That's one guy.

BBD showed glimmers last year, but has yet to fulfill the promise he showed.  I'm starting to wonder what his upside is, exactly.  He's still a project.

Eddie House definitely is NOT "that guy" that helps us...and should be benched, frankly (sorry, Eddie).  Ditto for Scal.  The kids too (that includes you, Shelden).  That's 5 guys that don't help, players 10-14 on the roster.

Daniels, when healthy, is a very good "utility infielder" sort of player.  His career numbers don't suggest much, though.  He's good, but I don't think we've seen enough of him to suggest he'd put us over the top.  Unfortunately, we won't get much of a look at him before the trade deadline, and without a backup PG, we won't see him playing on the wing all that much, either.  Counting on him to be the difference maker is more hope and prayer than anything, IMHO.

So, our super role player bench is the underperforming Sheed, and either TA or Daniels.

I don't think we can win it all if our talent only goes 7 deep.  That said, spots 8 and 9 in the rotation can hopefully be filled by trading the rest of the subpar players, all of whom have expiring contracts...but I think the players that will be available at the deadline in salary dumps will probably have unfriendly contracts that might inhibit the use of the MLE this summer.

One player, a backup hustle PG that can shoot, would move Quisy to the wing where he belongs, take the ball out of TA's hands in case he needs to play, and calls plays for Sheed on the box every time down the floor.  I think not having a PG on the 2nd unit is making the bench worse than it is on offense (as is playing House and Scal).  That would be a minor tweak, and I think we improve enough to be a stronger contender this year.

So...Danny needs to patch up some holes to go far this year, but I think it can be done.  But I wouldn't rule out a blockbuster, either...to improve both the PG and wing bench spots, while adding younger more athletic talent.

[Chris]

  We don't need him to get back to 2008 KG to have a shot at the title. Just December 2009 KG.

See I think that's false.  Our opponents have improved their rosters while ours has degraded.  Dec 2009 KG would definitely be an improvement over what we're seeing from him these days.  But it's not nearly enough.

However even if it were enough, what makes you think Kevin is going to randomly return to that level in the middle of the season, at his age?  I just don't see it happening.

I think it is absolutely true.  And I also think the C's roster is significantly better after KG.  Wallace is a HUGE upgrade over Mikki Moore, POB, and yes, even Leon Powe.  Glen Davis as a 4th big is very good.  Daniels is twice the player any wing we had off the bench last year was, and if he can stay healthy, can be just as much of an impact player as Posey.  And even Tony Allen has been playing decent basketball (though I don't want him near the floor in the playoffs).

And that isn't even mentioning the improvements in Perk and Rondo's games.

If KG can play like he did in December, this is absolutely a contender.  But I just worry that he will not be there come May.

Wow. Hyperbole! Daniels is twice the player Tony Allen is? Twice? Strong words for two players who have nearly identical career stats. Rasheed Wallace is a "HUGE" upgrade over Leon Powe? Yeah, this would be true--circa 2003. But this is 2010. Do you watch the games? Wallace is the laziest player in the league. He's terrible, terrible, terrible, with help defense. And we all know Rasheed loves taking shots he just doesn't have the capability of making. He shoots 40% from the field and 30% from three. If Leon Powe returns to his old self, I wouldn't even have to think about it; give me Powe instead of Rasheed.

I agree.  Amazingly, TA has been equal to or better than Daniels thus far this season.  And Sheed, while better than Moore/Scal, has been all kinds of disappointing.  Leon's (pre-injury) fantastic rebounding, quick-footed D and high-percentage scoring would be far more valuable to this team than Sheed's mediocre rebounding, slow-footed D and ridiculously inefficient scoring.

  Pretty sure he was talking about the 08-09 TA. TA himself is easily twice that player. Daniels probably is too.

Exactly.  And I am also talking about a healthy Daniels, who we have not seen much of this season, but would hopefully see come playoffs.

Last year, the C's backup wings were beyond attrocious.  I actually think I was understating it to say a healthy Daniels is twice as good as any of those guys were.

[libermaniac]

If think the best bet is to hire Jeff Gilooly to come bust some celtic kneecaps.  If they go 0 for the rest of the year, they might be in good lotto position. 

[moiso]

While we may be more talented now than in our championship year, one thing that could come back to bite us is that Powe, Brown, and Posey were warriors.  Powe was always a hustler, but Brown and especially Posey would kill themselves to win close games.  That group just had incredible determination and competitiveness that I don't really see at this time.  I agree that Sheed is lazy and though Daniels is a good player, he looks like he's sleepwalking out there.
I'm not saying we should have signed Posey, but in close games, Posey always made a play or two in crunch time to help win games.  That group seemed much more determined to win.
Just an observation.  I still think the C's could win it.