A Harsh Assessment of 2009-10: The Window is Closed

[jdpapa3]

This is one of those perspective debates that isn't resolvable.

I found - and continue to find - the idea that Danny traded value for Garnett and Allen laughable.

What Danny found were two teams ready to unload superstars for pocket change on the dollar, and he had enough dimes and nickels in his pocket to pull it off. Great drafting? Not really. Timely drafting would be more accurate.

Which is why I believe now is the essential time to land a bridge to the future - before the Celtics officially land in the middle of the NBA pack, a day which is coming sooner than I expected. If you make a move in-season this year, you do it to land a younger star or near-star that will help you bridge the inevitable dropoff that's looming, and give you a foundation to rebuild. I'll acknowledge in advance that many of you feel Rondo is that player; I most assuredly am not ready to annoint an erratic, scoring-challenged player with that role.

Some here treat it as a fait accompli that Danny will just go out and reload the franchise with great young talent. I would assert that he has yet to do so.

Sorry in advance for the pessimism. It's one old coach's opinion, and should be taken as such.

You are giving no credit for the drafting of Rondo, jefferson, West, Perkins, Gomes, Powe, and it's really a shame. Few other gm's can come close to that track record in those draft slots.

[More Banners]

This is one of those perspective debates that isn't resolvable.

I found - and continue to find - the idea that Danny traded value for Garnett and Allen laughable.

What Danny found were two teams ready to unload superstars for pocket change on the dollar, and he had enough dimes and nickels in his pocket to pull it off. Great drafting? Not really. Timely drafting would be more accurate.

Which is why I believe now is the essential time to land a bridge to the future - before the Celtics officially land in the middle of the NBA pack, a day which is coming sooner than I expected. If you make a move in-season this year, you do it to land a younger star or near-star that will help you bridge the inevitable dropoff that's looming, and give you a foundation to rebuild. I'll acknowledge in advance that many of you feel Rondo is that player; I most assuredly am not ready to annoint an erratic, scoring-challenged player with that role.

Some here treat it as a fait accompli that Danny will just go out and reload the franchise with great young talent. I would assert that he has yet to do so.

Sorry in advance for the pessimism. It's one old coach's opinion, and should be taken as such.

I agree with your assessment of Rondo, though I think he looks better when compared with other PG's than he does when just assessing his game.  I think he would probably perform better if Doc had a backup on the bench, and could sit him down when he should be sat down, i.e. when he's playing erratic, gambling, etc.

I disagree on those trades, though.  It was surely good timing, but we didn't trade nickels.  The #5 pick (for Ray) is proving to be a solid NBA player, and will continue to be, long after Ray hands up the Nike's.  Ditto for Big Al, who still has an imperfect game, but has very desirable NBA skills.  And those guys might still get better.

I think the big gamble to lock up so much salary in PP, Ray, and KG was done with the hope that other players would be attracted to play here cheap for a shot to win.  That simply has not happened, and, consequently, our bench is...well...it sucks.  And as winning looks less certain, it will get even harder to bring in players.

[LarBrd33]

lol.  Anyways...

Lets be honest guys.  Nobody on this forum honestly believes this team's window is shut.  We just like being dramatic and overreacting.  It's more fun.   We all know that we have just as much a shot of winning a title as the Lakers, Cavs and Magic.  We're just going through a real rough spot.  Big deal.  We might have the best starting 5 in the league still.

And honestly even if the window IS shut... it was a fun run.  All it cost us was the Al Jefferson (underwhelming to the point his team is already considering trading him), Delonte West (love him, but the kid is insane) and Jeff Green/Yi Jianlian (meh)   We're in a fine position.   We could still flip Ray for a young star. 

[vinnie]

lol.  Anyways...

Lets be honest guys.  Nobody on this forum honestly believes this team's window is shut.  We just like being dramatic and overreacting.  It's more fun.   We all know that we have just as much a shot of winning a title as the Lakers, Cavs and Magic.  We're just going through a real rough spot.  Big deal.  We might have the best starting 5 in the league still.

And honestly even if the window IS shut... it was a fun run.  All it cost us was the Al Jefferson, Delonte West and Jeff Green (or Yi Jianlian).   We're in a fine position.   We could still flip Ray for a young star. 

I honestly believe it is shut this year and that Danny needs to start the rebuilding either now or starting next year. Still love the team, and love #17. That night at the Garden against the Lakers was my best sports moment ever.

[snively]

This is one of those perspective debates that isn't resolvable.

I found - and continue to find - the idea that Danny traded value for Garnett and Allen laughable.

What Danny found were two teams ready to unload superstars for pocket change on the dollar, and he had enough dimes and nickels in his pocket to pull it off. Great drafting? Not really. Timely drafting would be more accurate.

Which is why I believe now is the essential time to land a bridge to the future - before the Celtics officially land in the middle of the NBA pack, a day which is coming sooner than I expected. If you make a move in-season this year, you do it to land a younger star or near-star that will help you bridge the inevitable dropoff that's looming, and give you a foundation to rebuild. I'll acknowledge in advance that many of you feel Rondo is that player; I most assuredly am not ready to annoint an erratic, scoring-challenged player with that role.

Some here treat it as a fait accompli that Danny will just go out and reload the franchise with great young talent. I would assert that he has yet to do so.

Sorry in advance for the pessimism. It's one old coach's opinion, and should be taken as such.

I share your desire to try and land a younger star before mediocrity sets in fully.  The best option, in my mind, is to try and upgrade Ray Allen ASAP, either with a younger, starter quality 2 and a genuinely good 6th man, or for just a younger, better wing.  His expiring contract makes a trade enticing, but resigning him on the cheap and gambling on an MLE signing might work to, although the continued deterioration of Paul and KG would add more desperation than I'd like to the search for an impact FA.

I disagree that Rondo has been anointed as the one to single-handedly bridge the drop-off in the big 3.  If anything it was supposed to be a combination of Rondo, Sheed, Baby and Daniels, in that order (based on the salaries shelled out this season).  Rondo, while certainly flawed, has held true to his end of the bargain (increasing his points, assists and FG accuracy) but Sheed, Baby and Daniels have produced next to nothing for this team, and certainly not enough to stop the offensive hemorrhaging stemming from Ray and Eddie's steep declines from last year.

[dlpin]

This is one of those perspective debates that isn't resolvable.

I found - and continue to find - the idea that Danny traded value for Garnett and Allen laughable.

What Danny found were two teams ready to unload superstars for pocket change on the dollar, and he had enough dimes and nickels in his pocket to pull it off. Great drafting? Not really. Timely drafting would be more accurate.

Which is why I believe now is the essential time to land a bridge to the future - before the Celtics officially land in the middle of the NBA pack, a day which is coming sooner than I expected. If you make a move in-season this year, you do it to land a younger star or near-star that will help you bridge the inevitable dropoff that's looming, and give you a foundation to rebuild. I'll acknowledge in advance that many of you feel Rondo is that player; I most assuredly am not ready to annoint an erratic, scoring-challenged player with that role.

Some here treat it as a fait accompli that Danny will just go out and reload the franchise with great young talent. I would assert that he has yet to do so.

Sorry in advance for the pessimism. It's one old coach's opinion, and should be taken as such.

I think your take on the trades is completely wrong. And here's why: we weren't even the front runners to land Garnett. We only landed him because other teams didn't want to trade what it took to get him. It's not like McHale called Ainge and said "get him for free." The suns had a better chance, but didnt want to include Amare, same for the Lakers and Bynum. In terms of "superstar" deals, the one that landed KG was one of the fairest one's ever. Minnesota clearly got more value from the KG trade than the Lakers got for Shaq, the Raptors got for Carter, and the Grizzlies got for Gasol.

[ManUp]

It's a longshot anyone who doesn't think so is on that green juice, IMO.

I'd compare how I feel  about this season to this team going into the 4th quarter with a 20 point deficit I know they're most likely going to lose, but I think they might be able to pull it out.

The spurs probably have just as much of a chance of winning as we do.

[Jon]

Yes, the window does look closed right now.

But guess what, the playoffs aren't for another three months and the Celtics will be there as a top seed. 

Partly because of the 24 hour hour sports news cycle and partly because of the incredibly long seasons of pro sports, it's not uncommon for the early-to-mid season woes of a team to be over exaggerated. 

There's plenty of time for this to turn around.  It might not, but it's certainly too early to make any sort of sweeping statements about this team one way or another.  There are just way too many examples of teams looking good at the All Star break tanking in the playoffs and teams looking horrible getting hot in the second half. 

[Casperian]

The bench has indeed been a colossal disappointment, but I continue to be amazed by the lack of basketball smarts on this team, starting with the point guard and extending into some of the veterans who brought this team the title. It's shocking, frankly, to see an alleged title contender struggle to move the basketball, take intelligent shots and execute rudimentary defensive concepts, such as keeping feet on the floor or your man in front of you.

It´s simple, in my humble opinion...they´re just doing what Doc wants them to do.
I swear, I´ll get pimples on the rear end of my back if I have to hear "All we want is to take open shots" or "Every open shot is a good shot" just one more time.

An offense isn´t good just because it creates a lot of open shots. A good offense creates made shots. Otherwise you could just shoot the ball after every defensive rebound.

To say that all you care about are open shots is like saying "Yeah, I´m dating Megan Fox, but we just want to be friends"...

...I don´t believe you, Mister!

[Casperian]

Sorry, double post.

[greg683x]

i'll give my response to this in about a month.

[wdleehi]

Only if KG does not get healthier and play closer to the level we came to expect.

[Drucci]

Seriously, do the fans really believe the window is closed?! I'm shocked by such a pessimism.

I knew at the beginning of the season that this year is probably the last one during which we can truly win a championship but if you take a bad month of January to claim that we have no chances of winning it all come playoffs time... wow.

People need to calm down, seriously. Please visit this thread by the way, maybe you won't be so drastic after reading it :http://forums.celticsblog.com/index.php?topic=34598.0

[snively]

The bench has indeed been a colossal disappointment, but I continue to be amazed by the lack of basketball smarts on this team, starting with the point guard and extending into some of the veterans who brought this team the title. It's shocking, frankly, to see an alleged title contender struggle to move the basketball, take intelligent shots and execute rudimentary defensive concepts, such as keeping feet on the floor or your man in front of you.

It´s simple, in my humble opinion...they´re just doing what Doc wants them to do.
I swear, I´ll get pimples on the rear end of my back if I have to hear "All we want is to take open shots" or "Every open shot is a good shot" just one more time.

An offense isn´t good just because it creates a lot of open shots. A good offense creates made shots. Otherwise you could just shoot the ball after every defensive rebound.

To say that all you care about are open shots is like saying "Yeah, I´m dating Megan Fox, but we just want to be friends"...

...I don´t believe you, Mister!

Sheed is probably the primary offender here.  When you're shooting 30% from 3, maybe you shouldn't pull the trigger whenever your open.

[Mencius]

I agree with the OP.  I think this team as constituted does not have a legit shot to win the championship.  Feels much like the 88 squad.

The thing is, Danny has just 3 weeks to make a decision about whether to trade Ray for younger talent or not.  If he chooses not to, and all we have is our MLE this summer to work with, then the decline will just steepen next year.

I see this as going one of two ways; he trades our older guys expirings in the year they expire, starting with Ray this year, then PP next year, then KG in his final year.  We reload on the fly, doubtful we'll be championship timber, but we won't fall off the map and become the Nets either.  If we got good enough return on trading Ray, you'd have to say that our chances for a championship this year will not diminish at all (they already seem remote to me).

The alternative strategy is allow the decline to truly become pathetic with the thinking that to really get the great young talent, you have to be at the top of the lottery, and you only get there by being pathetic.  I doubt Danny wants to go that route.

I hope we trade the Old 3 in their expiring years.

I'm in the camp that thinks that Danny did a fine job of drafting in the positions that we drafted.  I have faith he can rebuild a championship contender too.  It'll probably take a good 5 years though.  At least he'll have big expirings in the next 3 years to jump start the process.

Fwiw, I thought we had a two or three year window given their age and mileage when we traded for these guys.  Like others, I think it was worth it, short lived though it was (we knew that when it happened).  There were really only a deluded few who thought we could extend this window 5 or 6 years.  You're only really a contender with all-star to all-nba caliber players still playing at the top of their games.  We caught the tail end of that caliber of play.  It appears over to me.  I hope Danny sees it as I do and trades Ray to jumpstart the process.