I'm quite amazed to see how fans tend to overreact after every loss and claim that we are done, that KG has to retire after this season, that Ray needs to get traded, that we can't win the championship, etc.
I understand the rationale of overreacting in both ways after a loss : with a win you feel really good about the team, the future is bright ; with a loss you end up with a lot of questions and concerns in mind.
I also understand that the Celtics have been playing badly for the entire month of January and that there are legitimate concerns about some areas of their games (rebounding, turnovers).
However - and it's worth mentioning I'm not a particularly optimistic person by nature - I think people need to calm down and get things in perspective.
I'm not pretending to make a full list of positive points and excuses for the Celtics' bad performances.
However, you have to consider or reconsider some facts than tend to be overlooked :
- This is January. People are throwing the team under the bus and claiming it can't win the championship because of all the losses that we got this month. OK ; but think the other way : would you be claiming the championship is guaranteed to us if we had won all the games we lost this month? Clearly, you wouldn't. It works both ways. This is January : it hurts to see the team lose but it doesn't say anything about our chances of winning a championship. The 30 teams of the league tend to play lazy and uninspired basketball at this time of the year because of the imminent All-Star Break and the fatigue cumulated from the first half of the season. Injuries didn't help our cause. We sure did lose games we should have won even with injuries but still, you can't use the January games to predict our performance in the playoffs. It makes no sense (and it would make no sense if we were winning too).
- We are still an elite defensive team. I don't have the precise stats but they showed it during the Orlando game and we were in the top 5 in every statistical category : opponent FG%, opponent 3FG%, forced turnovers...
We are still holding teams to 43% FG% by average, and often under, while our offense is still one of the best in the league percentage and efficiency wise.
- Which leads to the logical conclusion that we still have all the pieces to win the championship. We can get the job done on defense and offense, and we usually do.
- Now, our two biggest weaknesses are turnovers and rebounding.
- Turnovers have always been a weakness with this team, even in 2007-2008. Still, we often overcomed it because of our defense and our efficient offense. The Celtics are getting a lot of turnovers on sloppy plays this month but it's nothing new or alarming.
- Rebounding is the true problem of this team. I can't explain why we get outrebounded so badly every night. Lack of boxing out, etc, alright. But this is definitely, in my opinion, the one and only concern we should have long term. The Celtics are well aware of this problem and yet can't seem to fix it thus far.
Offensive rebounds are the key : they allow opponents to stay close in the game and ultimately win it. And it adds to the frustration because the Celtics have the lead in every statistical category and yet lose the game because of their lack of rebounding. It hurts.
But people tend to forget that we have still the pieces to get the job done in every area of the game, even rebounding. We are still doing a great job, with an aging team, on defense, offense and with our passing game. Turnovers have always been there and will always be, hopefully in lesser proportions.
Rebounding is the problem that we have to take care of. If we don't fix this problem within 3 months, I will understand the legitimate concerns for our championship hopes.
- About the blown leads... it can become a concern to see a pattern developing, the fact that we blow big leads either at home or on the road in the second half. However, the fact that we got big leads also shows that we can be dominant when we want to, against every opponent. The Magic is a contender and we beat them badly for 3 quarters. Sure, you can argue that we lost badly in the 4th and lost the game but you can't get the good away from the bad to claim that we're done, have no hopes on winning it all, etc.
- Ray was written off, announced as "done", "too old", "useless", etc. He had a big game and people were praising him once again. Like Ray was in a slump, I don't see any facts telling me the team doesn't have what it takes to play better and improve as the season goes on.
- Even in our losses we're still losing by a thin margin. I don't want to sound like the bad loser by saying it but by reading some comments and threads I sometimes have the feeling that we get blown out by our opponent every night... that's not the case. Once again, we have the edge in every statistical category and yet get outrebounded badly, which leads to losses by two or 4 points usually, while we still hold our opponents under 90 points or 100 points. Once again a sign that our defense is still there.
- The defense is our backbone, we all know that. I tend to think that as long as our backbone is still here and efficient, we have no need to panic and elaborate ridiculous rebuilding scenarios. If we still struggle badly on the rebounding area in 3 months, I will agree with all the critics. Right now, in January, when we still have top defense and offense... not so much.
- KG is fine. I know nothing more about his health than you do but why assume that the guy is done when he limped for one game? He did limp in the Knicks game in late November and then hit the game winner to go on a crazy streak of shooting over 70% for like 15 games, while looking really good in terms of health, running, jumping, etc.
KG has been absent for a long time. He will have nights on and night off, especially now. He just has to get his conditioning back.
I know the staff doesn't have a history of being trusted because of last year but I don't see why we should panic about KG because of ONE game where he looked bad. If the team was being extra cautious by giving him a month of rest for a hyperextended knee, why would they play him without minutes restriction since his return, and why would Rondo keep throwing him alley-oops if his knee was that bad?
KG will be fine, give him some time.
- I understand that there is still room for concerns if we get the habit of leading games for 3 quarters to ultimately choke in the 4th due to age, fatigue or whatever. But so far I've not seen any factor having me worried about the team's physical inability to close games. More like poor coaching (like last night) and complacency (games during KG's absence).
- Finally, health and age are a concern, of course. But after being hit hard by injuries bugs this season, we have our roster healthy at 85% with Marquis still out and KG not back to 100%. I don't see any reason (other than bad luck) that says we won't be healthy come playoffs time and after the all-star break.
I've written a long, long post and I'm not sure people will have the courage to read it entirely but I just felt like a thread about objective facts was needed among all this negativity.
The pieces are still here, and they can still can get the job done, and in a impressive way, we've seen it yesterday for 3 quarters and throughout the season. Rebounding is the our biggest weakness. And we have players who can rebound.
This problem will be fixed, and we will come out of this slump, just have some patience. This team can only improve from now on, and in a few months, I'm betting most people will have forgotten about this tough month of January.
