The league, as we know it, could be about to change.

[nickagneta]

The NBA as we know it and have been following it for the last decade could be making a lot of changes in the near future and I think the landscape of the league, as we are familiar with it, could be very different starting this trade deadline and continuing on through the 2011 off season. Let's take a look at the reasons why:

1.) Star player familiarity on teams - this off season and the time leading up to the trade deadline could go one of two ways. One, we will see some deals of players who will not re-sign with their team but for the most part, name players will remain with their teams or, two, there could be a lot of trades of big name players as teams try to lower payroll and get what they can in a down economy and the free agent migration will be huge. Sure the middle ground is possible but:

• Joe Johnson has bad mouthed his home town crowds leading one to speculate whether he enjoys being in Atlanta
• LeBron just came out with a set of shoes hinting at him being a Knick and his best friend owns part of the Nets
• Chris Bosh is on the trading block and WILL most assuredly be traded
• Dwayne Wade keeps making references to sitting down with Chris Bosh and LeBron James after the season to decide what he might do. It sounds like he wants desperately to hook up with another star for another ring and Miami might not be the place for that to happen.
• Kevin Martin, Al Jefferson, Antawn Jamison, Caron Butler, Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Tayshaun Prince, Rip Hamilton, Carlos Boozer, Jeff Foster, and just about every player on 8-10 teams are all on the trading block. I'm not sure there's ever been a plethora of talent or players with a large amount of years with one team being on the market all at the same time.
• The Bobcats, Wizards and Grizzlies could all be going through possible ownership changes that could effect personnel
• The economy could force many trades or non renewal of free agents that, in a better economy, would otherwise have been retained.
• Amare Stoudemire and Dirk Nowitzski could opt out of their current contracts and make a move in free agency this off season that is unexpected.
  

2.) Gambling - with the possible release of Tim Donaghy's book regarding gambling and a behind the scenes look at NBA officiating, David Stern's somewhat unexpected embrace of legal sports gambling, and now the furor caused by the Gilbert Arenas guns incident over high stakes gambling on a team flight and the possibility exists for some wide ranging changes in the game of basketball where gambling is the issue. Will Stern put the hammer down on gambling in team facilities and during team travel but make the almost hypocritical move of embracing legal sports betting for his league while taking money left and right from casinos for advertising? Will he have to make adjustments if further info comes to the fore front on the behind the scenes officiating situation from Donaghy's book. All could lead to a major move by the league to distance themselves from gambling as a whole to keep up consumer confidence in the viability of the product. One never knows but I get the feeling something major will happen on this front in the near future.

3.) The collective bargaining agreement - don't be surprised by a work stoppage before and into the 2011-12 season. And depending on just how bad the revenue generating numbers and overall profit and loss statements are looking for the owners, that work stoppage could be significant. Look for Stern to look for some major concessions come the next CBA. A roll back on trade exceptions, the mid level exception, the percentage of revenue heading in the players direction, early out clauses on rookie contracts, a hard cap and language to make it easier to void contracts will all definitely at least be on the table and expect Stern and the owners to definitely get some of these before they settle and allow basketball to be played again. Hope for good numbers to be reported after the season from the league's economic and accounting departments, otherwise, the CBA negotiations could be long and maybe ugly.

4.) Relocation - while I do not see any team except maybe the Nets being in a different location come the opening of the 2011-12 season, I wouldn't put it past three other teams Charlotte, Sacramento, Memphis or even New Orleans making definitive plans and doing everything they can to get out of current leases, court new cities and finalize plans to move elsewhere. Depending on just how things play out would it surprise anyone to see teams in Brooklyn, Seattle and Las Vegas anytime soon? It wouldn't surprise me.


Overall, I think the National Basketball Association of the next12-20 months could see a major make over with teams in different cities, long time stars on different, a different sets of rules governing the league and a different set of rules for the economic side of the league. Will it still be NBA basketball? Will we still have our Celtics? Will it still be an maddeningly addictive game to be a fan of? Of course, but tons of other stuff could make it much different in many ways. 

[BASS_THUMPER]

yeah....boston lets trade..

cali will give u the lakers and the clippers for the celtic's..dream on bass..

and i never thougth that a  good player would be shopped around jus to get new talent to bring in more fans..hmmm


interestin read nick

[Who]

On the new CBA ... I'd like to see

• Player's contracts limited to four + five years instead of the current five + six.
• A continuation of the system that allows a team to offer the extra year + larger annual pay increases to keep their own players. I think that's more than enough leverage to keep continuity.
• I'd like to see restricted free agency abolished. It decreases a player's ability to move teams + their earning power.
• MLE contracts limited to three year deals to stop bad GM's from screwing up their teams (similar idea to the draft picks rule, can't trade back to back picks, protect GM's from themselves).
• A tiered luxury tax so that team's who go over the tax get penalized severely. Dollar for dollar on the first five million. Two dollars for every dollar on the next five million. Three dollars for every dollar on the next five million after that and so on, so on. I think that would be an effective deterrent to team's spending crazy money.

[Who]

I would take a different view on availability of trades ... I don't think there's much talent available in trades this deadline.

There's an awful lot of expiring contracts floating about but it's difficult for any of those teams to get good value for them. Not a lot of All-Star players. No All-NBA players.

Carlos Boozer is the only high end player available at this point and he's nearly impossible to acquire to his contract situation + Utah's luxury tax situation. So he's not fully available to begin with. The rest of the players are all non-All-Stars or borderline All-Stars at best.

[jdpapa3]

Nice post, nick. That CBA expiration is a HUGE story in the making.

Also, this summer will be wild. This is why I'm glad Danny locked up Rondo. Teams will be throwing out contract offers left and right. Heck, this trading deadline should provide some fireworks.

Does Miami see the writing on the wall with Wade? Seems as if Riley was ready for this, when you consider he has only $12 mil in salary committed to next season.

Toronto trading Bosh is 90% + likely, imo, and he is a top 15 guy in this league.

The team gambling thing would be a tough thing to police.

[Who]

I also think the most of the mainstream media hasn't copped on to the fact that the number of teams with cap space next summer has halved (18 to 9) since the this time last year. And that currently only three/four of those nine teams have enough space to offer a max contract to anyone in the 7+ years experience (Bron, Wade, Amare, Bosh, JJ, Dirk).

I think their misinterpretation of the number of teams with free agency money + the number of teams that are looking to get below the cap + consequently the number of teams that aren't willing to take on contracts due to potential cap space ... has led to many misleading articles on the current trade situation across the league (how valuable + movable some players are).

I also think their lack of focus on team's who are over the luxury tax and unwilling/reluctant to take on contracts has damaged their reporting on the trade market too (Utah in particular).

Edit: That was an odd tangent. Oh yes, trade market, that's how I got here. Right. Huh?

[Fan from VT]

On the new CBA ... I'd like to see

• Player's contracts limited to four + five years instead of the current five + six.
• A continuation of the system that allows a team to offer the extra year + larger annual pay increases to keep their own players. I think that's more than enough leverage to keep continuity.
• I'd like to see restricted free agency abolished. It decreases a player's ability to move teams + their earning power.
• MLE contracts limited to three year deals to stop bad GM's from screwing up their teams (similar idea to the draft picks rule, can't trade back to back picks, protect GM's from themselves).
• A tiered luxury tax so that team's who go over the tax get penalized severely. Dollar for dollar on the first five million. Two dollars for every dollar on the next five million. Three dollars for every dollar on the next five million after that and so on, so on. I think that would be an effective deterrent to team's spending crazy money.

I like restricted free agency, but i think a team should have 24 hours to match. Teams should know what they are going to do well before free agency starts, and drastically shortening the wait limit will increase the likelihood of teams making offers. Right now, if you make an offer to a restricted free agent, that money is unusable for a full 7 days of intense free agency. Terrible.

I also think that it could be neat that if a player wanted to leave via free agency but was a restricted free agent (i.e. without an extension), his team had to match any signed offer plus 5% per year. This would encourage teams to lock up players. This would be a nice counterbalance to decreased % for players and decreased contract lengths. I'd also consider shortening the whole rookie contract system by 1 year, so that RFA could happen after your third year and full UFA after 4 years. 5 years is a long time to be tied to a team you had no choice in picking and may be a terrible franchise.