Best 2009 QB: Tom Brady?

[PosImpos]

http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/insider/news/story?id=4798263&action=login&appRedirect=http%3a%2f%2finsider.espn.go.com%2fnfl%2finsider%2fnews%2fstory%3fid%3d4798263

According to this article, Tom Brady was the best QB in the league this season.

Could somebody with Insider read it and explain their reasoning to me?  Seems like a pretty tough sell to me.  He put up some nice numbers and had some dominating performances, but that was against some really awful teams.

[Roy Hobbs]

I don't have Insider, either, but any metric that tells me that Tom Brady was the best QB in the NFL this year probably needs some refinement.

[Fafnir]

I don't have Insider, either, but any metric that tells me that Tom Brady was the best QB in the NFL this year probably needs some refinement.

He's top 5, but not in contention for the top 1/2.

[Celtic]

Manning has that pretty much locked up, especially this year.

[Bahku]

As most here know, I'm one of the biggest Brady fans on CB, but this just doesn't cut it. While I agree with the "Biggest Comeback" nod, I don't think he could be placed any higher than 3rd ... and that's being a bit kind. My first thought was 4, and that's pretty close, I think. (And we're talking about strictly THIS YEAR'S performance).

[nickagneta]

I don't have Insider, either, but any metric that tells me that Tom Brady was the best QB in the NFL this year probably needs some refinement.

From the article:

The answer is strength of schedule. The difference between Brady's DVOA and VOA (our DVOA statistic, minus the defensive adjustments) is 9.5 percentage points, the largest such figure in the league for any quarterback with more than 100 attempts. That makes sense when you look at Brady's schedule: Over the course of the season, the Patriots played the pass defenses DVOA ranked first (the New York Jets, who they played twice), second (Carolina Panthers), third (Buffalo Bills, again twice), fifth (Denver Broncos), sixth (Baltimore Ravens, with a second matchup coming this weekend) and ninth (Saints). That's half a season against defenses ranked in the top 10, plus two games against the defense ranked 11th (Miami Dolphins). Brady had only one game against a pass defense ranked in the bottom five. Based on our numbers, Brady played the hardest schedule of pass defenses of any quarterback in the past 15 years.

And for an explanation of the metric:

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=3079031

DVOA: The main statistic used by Football Outsiders, DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average), breaks down the entire season play by play, comparing the success on each play to the league average based on a number of variables, including down, distance, location on field, current score gap, quarter and opponent quality.

While it can be used as a measure of total team performance, it differs from other power ratings found throughout the Web because it can be broken down to analyze team effectiveness in any number of ways down, quarter, rushing vs. receiving, location on field, passes to backs vs. passes to receivers, etc. It can also be used to analyze specific players.

For more on how DVOA is computed, read the explanation at FootballOutsiders.com. You can find current total DVOA ratings for 2009 on this page.

DYAR: Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement. Our metric which takes a player's performance, adjusted for situation and opponent in the manner of DVOA, and then translates it into the approximate number of actual yards that such success (or failure) is worth when compared to a generic bench scrub (also called a "replacement player.") This statistic will increase the rating for players who have a high usage, even if their performance is average, demonstrating the importance of workhorse running backs and receivers who can draw the attention of the defense away from other players.

DYAR stats for 2009 are listed on FootballOutsiders.com for quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends.

Adjusted line yards: A stat that attempts to, even to a small extent, separate the ability of a running back from the ability of the offensive line. Adjusted line yards are average rushing yards per play by running backs only, adjusted in the following way

• 0-4 yards 100 percent strength
• 5-10 yards 50 percent strength
• 11+ yards not included
• Runs for a loss 120 percent strength

These numbers are then adjusted further based on game situation as well as quality of opponents faced.

Adjusted sack rate :The total of sacks and intentional grounding penalties, divided by pass plays, which include passes, sacks and aborted snaps. A better measure of pass blocking than total sacks because it takes into account how often an offense passes the ball. It is also adjusted for strength of schedule as well as down and distance.

Updated adjusted line yards and adjusted sack rate figures can be found on FootballOutsiders.com for offense and defense.

Drive success rate :The percentage of time that a team will get a first down or touchdown in a given set of four downs. Updated drive stats for 2007 are found here.

Deep passes/short passes: Based on a designation in the official play-by-play, deep passes are those passes that travel 16 or more yards through the air (based on where the line of scrimmage is, not where the quarterback is) and short passes are passes which travel 15 yards or fewer. To the best of our ability, we remove passes that are thrown away to avoid pressure or are tipped at the line.

Situation-neutral pace: Seconds of game clock used per offensive play, with the following restrictions Drives are not included if they begin in the fourth quarter or final five minutes of the first half; and drives are included only when the score is within six points or less. A lower number indicates a faster pace.

Success rate: A measure of running back consistency based on the percentage of carries where the player gains 40 percent of needed yards on first down, 60 percent of needed yards on second down or 100 percent of needed yards on third or fourth down. There is a small adjustment in the fourth quarter based on whether a team is more than a touchdown behind or running out the clock. A running back with a success rate above 50 percent is very consistent; below 40 percent is very inconsistent.

I haven't looked at the math behind the numbers but the concept is thought provoking. Brady had lesser stats but played against better passing defenses and the metric tries to put the stats into an even comparison field ala park differentials in baseball or efficiency ratings for teams in basketball. Interesting idea.

[Fafnir]

The adjusting for an offensive line is the sketchiest part to me.

[Eja117]

I'm not even sure he was a top two QB on his team this year

[nickagneta]

I'm not even sure he was a top two QB on his team this year

Now that's just silly.

[Bahku]

I'm not even sure he was a top two QB on his team this year

Now that's just silly.

Very.

[Fafnir]

I'm not even sure he was a top two QB on his team this year

Now that's just silly.

Just trying to get a rise out of you, don't take the bait  .

[Roy Hobbs]

I'm not even sure he was a top two QB on his team this year

Now that's just silly.

Yeah, but Hoyer had a higher completion percentage and didn't throw any interceptions all year long.

[Chief]

Top 5 NFL QBs in order (this year):

Manning
Brees
Rivers
Rodgers
Brady

[Eja117]

I'm not even sure he was a top two QB on his team this year

Now that's just silly.

Just trying to get a rise out of you, don't take the bait  .

True. Although honestly I have mixed feelings about it. I think they lost a lot of games they should have won and didn't really win any they shouldn't have, but there's only so much I can expect from the guy when he has a cruddy O-line, cruddy running backs, cruddy TEs, and not much in receiving after Moss and Welker

I hear he's been playing with broken ribs. I doubt it.

[guava_wrench]

I'm not even sure he was a top two QB on his team this year

Now that's just silly.

Just trying to get a rise out of you, don't take the bait  .

True. Although honestly I have mixed feelings about it. I think they lost a lot of games they should have won and didn't really win any they shouldn't have, but there's only so much I can expect from the guy when he has a cruddy O-line, cruddy running backs, cruddy TEs, and not much in receiving after Moss and Welker

I hear he's been playing with broken ribs. I doubt it.

"not much in receiving after Moss and Welker"

Are you kidding me? Complaining about receivers when you have 2 pro bowl level receivers? What do you want - 4 pro bowl WR and Tony Gonzales?

Considering the QB last year did quite fine in Brady's absence, I don't find the making lemonade out of lemons argument persuasive.