Author Topic: We'll know the fate of Giddens today...  (Read 33584 times)

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Re: We'll know the fate of Giddens today...
« Reply #30 on: November 02, 2009, 11:13:05 AM »

Offline Brickowski

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You have to look at the players who were passed over when evaluating a pick.  Except for Mbah a Moute, no one was better than Giddens.  And even Mbah a Moute wasn't going to get many minutes with the Celtics.

Contrast that to 2001, where the Celtics passed on Gilbert Arenas, Tony Parker, Richard Jefferson, Troy Murphy, Brendan Haywood, Gerald Wallace, Sam Dalembert, Jamaal Tinsley and Trenton Hassell, all of whom became starting caliber NBA players and several of whom became superstars.

So I don't view Giddens as a misfire at all.

Re: We'll know the fate of Giddens today...
« Reply #31 on: November 02, 2009, 11:16:56 AM »

Offline footey

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So the total of Celtics' expiring contracts increases by $1.1 million at 6:30 this evening? Can't say it would be a surprise.

As for the vaunted draft expertise of one Daniel Ainge I'm not sure his prowess is so great:

2003 Dahntay Jones and Troy Bell - which he traded away for Kendrick Perkins and Marcus Banks

2004 Al Jefferson, Delonte West, Tony Allen, Brandon Hunter

2005 Gerald Green, Oriene Green, Ryan Gomes

2006 Randy Foye - who was then traded for Sebastian Telfair

2007 Gabe Pruitt, Jeff Green - traded to Seattle with others for Ray Allen and rights to Glen Davis

2008 J. R. Giddens, Semih Erden

2009 Lester Hudson


Now granted, Danny did turn some of these draft picks into Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett, eventually, and was also good enough to target Kendrick Perkins, Glen Davis, and Rajon Rondo as talents and trade for their rights, but strictly as a drafter of talent I would say he is okay. Nothing special. He has made his bed with this current team through trades, IMO, not through drafting.

I mean end results of draft day and draft day trades have been exceptional but without the words  "draft day trades" I can't use the word exceptional. There have been a bunch of bad acquisitions on draft day as well.

Brandon Hunter
Marcus Banks
Sebastian Telfair
Oriene Greene
Gerald Green
J. R. Giddens
Gabe Pruitt
Brandon Hunter
Tony Allen

For six years of drafting and acquiring, that's a lot of misses as well. The thing is for every one of his misses he hits huge. Overall the effect is excellent but whether he can continue to parlay his current talent into draft day giant successes will remain to be seen now that the well of good young talent is running dry.



Don't picks have to be judged relative to draft position?  You're calling guys like Orien Greene and Brandon Hunter busts, despite being picked in the second round?  That seems exceedingly unfair.

To me, Danny's only real misses were Gerald Green -- there were other good players on the board, including a Danny favorite in Monta Ellis -- Marcus Banks, and J.R. Giddens (he was picked too high, and Danny misjudged how NBA ready he was).

Telfair came along with clearing something like $12 million off the books.  We picked up Theo Ratliff's expiring deal, which became a huge trade chip in the KG acquisition.

Tony Allen has showed more than most guys picked 20th+ in the draft.  He's not a smart player, but he could play at this level prior to injuries.

Big Al, Rondo, Gomes, Powe, and BBD were all excellent picks relative to draft position.

Pretty much agree with Roy's analysis, except for Telfair.  Danny clearly undervalued Brandon Roy when he made that deal. While it is true that it got us Ratliff's expiring contract, a necessary component to the Garnett trade, Ainge couldn't have possibly known that when he did the Telfair trade.  And who is to say we could not have worked out some other chips to get KG anyway?  We probably did not need to make the Ray Allen trade to entice KG, if we had BR and PP on the roster.  I know, a lot of what ifs, but Danny did seriously misgage the value of Brandon Roy, which is my only point.

Re: We'll know the fate of Giddens today...
« Reply #32 on: November 02, 2009, 11:23:48 AM »

Offline Chris

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Pretty much agree with Roy's analysis, except for Telfair.  Danny clearly undervalued Brandon Roy when he made that deal. While it is true that it got us Ratliff's expiring contract, a necessary component to the Garnett trade, Ainge couldn't have possibly known that when he did the Telfair trade.  And who is to say we could not have worked out some other chips to get KG anyway?  We probably did not need to make the Ray Allen trade to entice KG, if we had BR and PP on the roster.  I know, a lot of what ifs, but Danny did seriously misgage the value of Brandon Roy, which is my only point.

I think Danny would still do that trade 10 out of 10 times because of the red flags on Roy's knees, and how it opened up the KG trade.  But I also do not think he had any idea Roy would be this good either. 

Now, the team that should really be kicking themselves is the Wolves.  Had they kept Roy over Foye, they may never have even had to trade KG, and they would be in a very different spot right now.

Re: We'll know the fate of Giddens today...
« Reply #33 on: November 02, 2009, 11:31:04 AM »

Offline nickagneta

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You have to look at the players who were passed over when evaluating a pick.  Except for Mbah a Moute, no one was better than Giddens.  And even Mbah a Moute wasn't going to get many minutes with the Celtics.

Contrast that to 2001, where the Celtics passed on Gilbert Arenas, Tony Parker, Richard Jefferson, Troy Murphy, Brendan Haywood, Gerald Wallace, Sam Dalembert, Jamaal Tinsley and Trenton Hassell, all of whom became starting caliber NBA players and several of whom became superstars.

So I don't view Giddens as a misfire at all.

I don't know Brick:

Mario Chalmers
Chris Douglas Roberts
DeAndre Jordan
Luc Mbah a Moute
Goran Dragic

were all chosen shortly after Giddens with many pundits expecting the C's to take one of the first three guys on that list. Chalmers, Jordan, and Douglas Roberts were all well known commodities that night and all were available and most expected the next player to be chosen by the C's was going to be one of those three guys. I have to say Danny dropped the ball there.

Re: We'll know the fate of Giddens today...
« Reply #34 on: November 02, 2009, 11:39:20 AM »

Offline Roy Hobbs

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But come on, as I think I have illustrated, I am not trying to be overly critical of Ainge I just think saying he rarely misses is looking at the world through very Green glasses. He misses a lot. Everyone does. It is the nature of the business.


He doesn't miss all that much relative to draft position, especially when compared to his peers. 

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Re: We'll know the fate of Giddens today...
« Reply #35 on: November 02, 2009, 11:43:05 AM »

Offline Chris

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But come on, as I think I have illustrated, I am not trying to be overly critical of Ainge I just think saying he rarely misses is looking at the world through very Green glasses. He misses a lot. Everyone does. It is the nature of the business.


He doesn't miss all that much relative to draft position, especially when compared to his peers. 

See, I think he misses just as much as his peers.  But I also think he has more big "hits" at lower positions than most GMs. 

Re: We'll know the fate of Giddens today...
« Reply #36 on: November 02, 2009, 11:45:21 AM »

Offline fairweatherfan

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Danny has been exceptionally good with 2nd rd picks, and pretty mediocre with 1sts.  Giddens is on that second list. 

Re: We'll know the fate of Giddens today...
« Reply #37 on: November 02, 2009, 11:47:51 AM »

Offline slamtheking

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I think the issue is that sometimes at CB, and I have done this, when someone is trying to make a point that is slightly critical or even just trying to paint a less green version of things, people get up in arms.

All I was trying to say is that Roy was painting Giddens as "a rare Ainge misfire". I just don't think that is true. I think he misfires quite a bit. Less than many, more than some. My post was to illustrate that when he is drafting it is not a rare thing for him to miss, it is quite common. Were some of his draft picks at the behest of other teams? Yes. But then who he brought in has to also be looked at.

His draft day dealings have overall been great, but it is not a rare thing for him to do very poorly as well. He has just been very good at taking those misses and turning them into another opportunity to succeed.

But come on, as I think I have illustrated, I am not trying to be overly critical of Ainge I just think saying he rarely misses is looking at the world through very Green glasses. He misses a lot. Everyone does. It is the nature of the business.

I think this explains the issues that others have raised with your initial post.  You made a big deal of who he drafted (which was skewed to exclude any picks based on direction from other teams and excluding the players Danny directed other teams to take) with your acknowledgement of the other draft-day work (i.e. trades) in what equated to fine print afterwards.

This presented a very slanted view of what Danny has accomplished in the draft to try to present your viewpoint as accurate.  You may not be seeing it that way but that's how it comes across.

Personally, I consider Danny's draft-day skills to be among the best in the NBA.  It's not just who he drafts, it's what he does with those draft picks and the ones he can accrue from other teams.  The only ones I consider to be misses at this point are Banks and GG.  Even GG is difficult to classify as a bust since he was supposed to go very high in the draft.  When a player like that falls to you that far down in the draft, it's hard to fault Danny for taking him-->particularly when the preferred choice of Granger wasn't available.  Did GG pan out, no.  Can I fault Danny for taking him, not really.

With that in mind, Banks is the real "bust".  But even with Banks, he's not getting a lot of PT but as far as I know, he's still collecting an NBA paycheck from someone this season.  Danny isn't the only one that's misjudged Banks' abilities but at least he was smart enough not to sign him to contract as a FA.

The point you acknowledged you missed is draft position.  This is an important aspect to drafting.  Danny hasn't kept the higher draft picks that should be pretty much guaranteed contributors but has more than made due with the lower picks that are typically role players if you're lucky.  From that bottom of the first round he's gotten Big Al, Delonte, TA, Perk and Rondo.  Pretty darn good by any standards.  So Giddens, last pick of the 1st round, hasn't lived up to those players.  It's a shame but hardly something to slam Danny for.

Anyone from the second round that can produce anything is a good find.  Gomes, Powe, Davis are at the top of that list.  Walker and Hudson might make that group as well.  Brandon Hunter, Justin Reed, Oriene Greene.  They each contributed a little in their own way.  Not spectacular but they were good enough to make the team and see some court time.  Better than most GMs whose 2nd rounders can't make the roster.  Pruitt's the lowlight of the 2nd round picks since he was the highest pick and didn't develop into a contributor.

One other thing, I believe it was technically Brandon Roy taken with the C's pick opposed to Foye.  I could be wrong but if my memory serves me correctly, Danny wanted Foye but couldn't get him so he was more willing to deal the pick that was eventually Roy.

In short, I disagree with your viewpoint and the way you presented it.  Now if you wanted to debate that Danny should have retained his high picks instead of trading them, that would be a different topic and be well worth some discussion.


Re: We'll know the fate of Giddens today...
« Reply #38 on: November 02, 2009, 11:50:25 AM »

Offline Chris

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Danny has been exceptionally good with 2nd rd picks, and pretty mediocre with 1sts.  Giddens is on that second list. 

See, I think his best values have actually been in mid to late first rounders.

I think he hit home runs with the Jefferson, Rondo, and Perkins picks in the first round, and really only missed badly on the Banks, Giddens, and Green picks (West and Allen I think were pretty much washes for their draft positions).  That is actually very good percentage for where he was drafting.

In the second round however, he found a few decent role players in Powe, Davis, and Gomes, but that really is nothing that a lot of GMs have done in the second round.  If he had found a star in there, it might make a difference, but I don't think those guys are anything to write home about.

Re: We'll know the fate of Giddens today...
« Reply #39 on: November 02, 2009, 11:50:39 AM »

Offline the_Bird

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Danny has been exceptionally good with 2nd rd picks, and pretty mediocre with 1sts.  Giddens is on that second list. 

How so?

He "hit" on Gomes, although as I noted earlier my view of Gomes is as a fringe-player on a good team.  On a bad team he puts up numbers, but on the Celtics of today he's a ninth-man.

He "hit" on BBD, who IS a ninth-man on the current Celtics.  I don't think too many people view him as a legit NBA starter, as evidenced by the deafening silence when he was a free agent this summer.  Besides, if you want to give Danny a bit of a pass on Giddens because he was a very late 1st rounder, you need to take away a little credit for BBD because he was nearly a first rounder.  

He "hit" on Powe, who's having the same injury problems that kept him out of the first round to begin with.

Who else that Danny drafted in the second round is still even in the league?

Best-case, that's three useable NBA players, but it's not like they're a Gilbert Arenas or Monta Ellis in there. 

Re: We'll know the fate of Giddens today...
« Reply #40 on: November 02, 2009, 11:52:49 AM »

Offline Roy Hobbs

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Danny has been exceptionally good with 2nd rd picks, and pretty mediocre with 1sts.  Giddens is on that second list. 

I don't think "pretty mediocre" is fair, either.  He's landed two legit stars (Big Al, Rondo), a starter on a championship team (Perk), and a starter on a 66 win team (Delonte).  None of those picks were higher than 15th in the draft.

He's missed on one late lottery pick (Banks), on the 18th pick in the draft (Gerald, who is still a defensible pick), and on the last pick in the first round (Giddens).  Depending upon how you saw Tony Allen before his knee injury, he's either a slight miss or a fairly neutral selection.

How many GMs who haven't made a pick higher than 13th can say they drafted players of the quality of Big Al, Rondo, Delonte, and Perk?

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Re: We'll know the fate of Giddens today...
« Reply #41 on: November 02, 2009, 11:54:37 AM »

Offline Roy Hobbs

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Danny has been exceptionally good with 2nd rd picks, and pretty mediocre with 1sts.  Giddens is on that second list. 

How so?

He "hit" on Gomes, although as I noted earlier my view of Gomes is as a fringe-player on a good team.  On a bad team he puts up numbers, but on the Celtics of today he's a ninth-man.

He "hit" on BBD, who IS a ninth-man on the current Celtics.  I don't think too many people view him as a legit NBA starter, as evidenced by the deafening silence when he was a free agent this summer.  Besides, if you want to give Danny a bit of a pass on Giddens because he was a very late 1st rounder, you need to take away a little credit for BBD because he was nearly a first rounder.  

He "hit" on Powe, who's having the same injury problems that kept him out of the first round to begin with.

Who else that Danny drafted in the second round is still even in the league?

Best-case, that's three useable NBA players, but it's not like they're a Gilbert Arenas or Monta Ellis in there. 


How many GMs have a similar track record in the second round?  R.C. Buford, certainly.  Who else has added as many rotation players in the second round as Danny?  My guess is the list is very small.

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Re: We'll know the fate of Giddens today...
« Reply #42 on: November 02, 2009, 12:01:19 PM »

Offline Brickowski

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You have to look at the players who were passed over when evaluating a pick.  Except for Mbah a Moute, no one was better than Giddens.  And even Mbah a Moute wasn't going to get many minutes with the Celtics.

Contrast that to 2001, where the Celtics passed on Gilbert Arenas, Tony Parker, Richard Jefferson, Troy Murphy, Brendan Haywood, Gerald Wallace, Sam Dalembert, Jamaal Tinsley and Trenton Hassell, all of whom became starting caliber NBA players and several of whom became superstars.

So I don't view Giddens as a misfire at all.

I don't know Brick:

Mario Chalmers
Chris Douglas Roberts
DeAndre Jordan
Luc Mbah a Moute
Goran Dragic

were all chosen shortly after Giddens with many pundits expecting the C's to take one of the first three guys on that list. Chalmers, Jordan, and Douglas Roberts were all well known commodities that night and all were available and most expected the next player to be chosen by the C's was going to be one of those three guys. I have to say Danny dropped the ball there.

What ball?  Except for Luc Mbah a Moute, none of those guys has done squat in the NBA and none of them would be getting minutes with the Celtics.  Douglas-Roberts is getting some floor time with the hopeless Nets, but so what?  Giddens would be getting minutes there too.

I suppose you could add Bill Walker to your list, but Ainge got him, too.

Re: We'll know the fate of Giddens today...
« Reply #43 on: November 02, 2009, 12:04:12 PM »

Offline KCattheStripe

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You have to look at the players who were passed over when evaluating a pick.  Except for Mbah a Moute, no one was better than Giddens.  And even Mbah a Moute wasn't going to get many minutes with the Celtics.

Contrast that to 2001, where the Celtics passed on Gilbert Arenas, Tony Parker, Richard Jefferson, Troy Murphy, Brendan Haywood, Gerald Wallace, Sam Dalembert, Jamaal Tinsley and Trenton Hassell, all of whom became starting caliber NBA players and several of whom became superstars.

So I don't view Giddens as a misfire at all.

I don't know Brick:

Mario Chalmers
Chris Douglas Roberts
DeAndre Jordan
Luc Mbah a Moute
Goran Dragic

were all chosen shortly after Giddens with many pundits expecting the C's to take one of the first three guys on that list. Chalmers, Jordan, and Douglas Roberts were all well known commodities that night and all were available and most expected the next player to be chosen by the C's was going to be one of those three guys. I have to say Danny dropped the ball there.

What ball?  Except for Luc Mbah a Moute, none of those guys has done squat in the NBA and none of them would be getting minutes with the Celtics.  Douglas-Roberts is getting some floor time with the hopeless Nets, but so what?  Giddens would be getting minutes there too.

I suppose you could add Bill Walker to your list, but Ainge got him, too.


Mario Chalmers was the starting point guard on a playoff team

Re: We'll know the fate of Giddens today...
« Reply #44 on: November 02, 2009, 12:06:18 PM »

Offline RAcker

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Danny has been exceptionally good with 2nd rd picks, and pretty mediocre with 1sts.  Giddens is on that second list. 

I don't think "pretty mediocre" is fair, either.  He's landed two legit stars (Big Al, Rondo), a starter on a championship team (Perk), and a starter on a 66 win team (Delonte).  None of those picks were higher than 15th in the draft.

He's missed on one late lottery pick (Banks), on the 18th pick in the draft (Gerald, who is still a defensible pick), and on the last pick in the first round (Giddens).  Depending upon how you saw Tony Allen before his knee injury, he's either a slight miss or a fairly neutral selection.

How many GMs who haven't made a pick higher than 13th can say they drafted players of the quality of Big Al, Rondo, Delonte, and Perk?
Agree that Danny has an excellent track record for spotting talent.  You forgot one, though.  Our old buddy Ryan Gomes didn't turn out too shabby.  Wasn't he like 50th?