Who has the money next year to offer Rondo what he is looking for? He won't get what he is asking for next year on the open market especially when the cap falls. Maybe that's why the C's want to wait it out, rather than offering up to the $60 mil if they can match in the summmer anyways if someone even offers that.
I think we're having this conversation in exactly the terms Rondo and Duffy would like us to use. "What's Rondo worth?"
But, on the other side of the negotiation, the Celtics and Ainge have to answer a slightly different question. "What do we have to pay to keep Rondo?" Players don't get paid what they're worth. They get paid what they can get. Scalabrine isn't worth his contract. Perkins is worth more than his.
So, if Rondo is asking for $12M per, Ainge has to figure if there's any way he could end up commanding that next summer. Even if Rondo leads the league in assists this year or we go to the Finals and he gets loads of national exposure, I don't think there is.
Using
Marc Stein's 2010 numbers published the other day, there are seven teams that *could* have about $12M to give away. The Clippers, Bulls, Wolves, and Nets make no sense as Rondo destinations because they've got elite point guards or, in the case of the Wolves, 19 point guards.
That leaves NY, Miami, and OKC. The Thunder passed on Rubio because they thought it would tick off Westbrook and they think he's their solution at PG. So, if they do even decide to spend their money, I'm guessing that's going to a front court player.
Leaving the Knicks and the Heat. Both will have a ton of money. And Rondo would be a scary fit in D'Antoni's offense.
Assuming, James, Wade, and Bosh all stay put and it's the second tier of free agents that cash in on the available money, would either of those teams offer Rondo more than he's asking right now?
The Knicks will be under incredible pressure to get a ticket seller and a cornerstone. If they whiff on the class of '03, Walsh could sell Stoudemire or Boozer as that guy. I don't think he could sell Rondo as the Knickerbocker Jesus. Given all the hype, are Knicks fans going to be happy getting a franchise player who doesn't score? Especially given that there will only be six other guys under contract? Maybe Walsh would pursue Rondo *after* he's got a big ticket seller, but that means he'd be offering closer to $8M or $9M per.
Miami makes some sense because, assuming they keep Wade, they've already got their marquee guy. (Wade handles the ball so much, I'm not sure Rondo's a great basketball fit, but let's ignore that for now...) The rumors coming out of South Beach all focus on a marquee big man. (Maybe, for some reason, they don't want to put their entire front court hopes in the hands of Beasley.) I see the bulk of their money going to recruit Bosh, Boozer, or Stoudemire. Again, maybe Riley would turn to Rondo once he got his big man. But he'd have little left to offer.
Even if Riley or Walsh was interested in Rondo above all other players, number 9 will be a restricted free agent and they won't pursue him until all the big UFAs are signed. With the Celtics no doubt claiming they'll match, no one will sign Rondo to an offer sheet and tie up their money for 7 days until the other marquee players are sorted out. Either team *could* still have money to spend at that point, but from their point of view, an UFA is a bird in hand and Rondo is two in a bush. Even if you sign him, you might not get.
I don't see the Heat and the Knicks sitting out of the big name feeding frenzy, hoarding $12M-max money, just to offer it to Rondo and maybe not even get him. (Plus, I hear the kid has attitude problems. It was for this weekend's negotiation, I assume, that Ainge ragged on Rondo all summer.) Either team could sign him to a sheet, but the chances that it will be much more expensive than what the Celtics are willing to pay right now seem very slim.
Of course, this is all just wild speculation. But it's speculation Ainge and Duffy are also engaged in right now. If I was Ainge, I would see nothing about next summer that would compel me to move much beyond $10M per for Mr. Rondo's services. Rondo can sign that deal now or he can sign it next summer. It's up to him.
He might be worth more, but there's no reason to pay more.
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