Craaaaazy Excerpts from Donaghy's (upcoming?) Book

[BudweiserCeltic]

Just the same, it's easy for him to go back to historically controversial games and just paint a pretty picture so that his claims look believable.

[Finkelskyhook]

Are games fixed by the NBA, ABSOLUTELY NOT!

I'm not so sure.  If a draft lottery order can be....Why can't a game?  What are the odds that the most overtly tanking teams two years back just happened to all have the worst possible draft scenario in the upcoming draft?

The lottery's not fixed either - the odds of ANY possible combination are extremely low.  Someone did the math, and the odds of even the 3 worst records (Memphis, us, Milwaukee) making up the Top 3 in any order was less than 5%.  It's like picking a card out of a deck and calling the deck rigged since there was less than a 2% chance that specific card would get picked.  And putting two players who were thought to have superstar potential in Portland and Seattle/OKC isn't exactly the NBA's dream scenario.

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OK.  The deck wasn't stacked...Since we're talking about odds..  What are the odds that the most overtly flagrantly tanking teams all fall under their worst possible lottery case scenario in the same draft?  Personally, I thought Stern should have taken the picks away altogether...It was that obvious and sickening to watch.  I predicted the scenario for us as soon as Paul had his 50+ game against Orlando and was sat for the season.  But to say there wasn't some kind of intervention is a real reach.  Call it justice prevailing or whatever you want to call it.  The messiah landing in Cleveland turned Cleveland into a bigger market....I don't see your logic there. 

If a draft can be fixed, so can the result of games. 


I truly, truly hope this garners attention from some politician who is a fan of a team that got screwed and has too much time on their hands.

So you're hoping for another corrupt, meaningless waste of  time that was the steroids investigation?  Government should have nothing to say about this.

[fairweatherfan]

Are games fixed by the NBA, ABSOLUTELY NOT!

I'm not so sure.  If a draft lottery order can be....Why can't a game?  What are the odds that the most overtly tanking teams two years back just happened to all have the worst possible draft scenario in the upcoming draft?

The lottery's not fixed either - the odds of ANY possible combination are extremely low.  Someone did the math, and the odds of even the 3 worst records (Memphis, us, Milwaukee) making up the Top 3 in any order was less than 5%.  It's like picking a card out of a deck and calling the deck rigged since there was less than a 2% chance that specific card would get picked.  And putting two players who were thought to have superstar potential in Portland and Seattle/OKC isn't exactly the NBA's dream scenario.

------------------------------------------------


OK.  The deck wasn't stacked...Since we're talking about odds..  What are the odds that the most overtly flagrantly tanking teams all fall under their worst possible lottery case scenario in the same draft? 

Again, very slim, just like every other possible outcome.  That's the point - there are so many possible combinations when 14 teams with different chances of winning draw for 3 spots that the odds are strongly against every single one of em happening.  Just like the odds are 51 to 1 against drawing any one card out of a deck, but you'll get one of em regardless.  Here's an interesting article about a mathmetician's analysis just before that very lottery - it mostly deals with the Bucks, but the Bucks (3rd worst record) were statistically the most likely to get the 5th pick in the draft.  We (2nd worst) were statistically most likely to get 4th.

Also, the lottery is now audited by a third-party organization who has no stake in the outcome and would be out of business if the slightest hint of impropriety came their way.  The lottery talk might make some sense when talking about the years where it was Stern picking envelopes out of a hopper (like the Ewing draft), but these days, no way.  It's pure confirmation bias.

[hpantazo]

Are games fixed by the NBA, ABSOLUTELY NOT!

I'm not so sure.  If a draft lottery order can be....Why can't a game?  What are the odds that the most overtly tanking teams two years back just happened to all have the worst possible draft scenario in the upcoming draft?

The lottery's not fixed either - the odds of ANY possible combination are extremely low.  Someone did the math, and the odds of even the 3 worst records (Memphis, us, Milwaukee) making up the Top 3 in any order was less than 5%.  It's like picking a card out of a deck and calling the deck rigged since there was less than a 2% chance that specific card would get picked.  And putting two players who were thought to have superstar potential in Portland and Seattle/OKC isn't exactly the NBA's dream scenario.

------------------------------------------------

OK.  The deck wasn't stacked...Since we're talking about odds..  What are the odds that the most overtly flagrantly tanking teams all fall under their worst possible lottery case scenario in the same draft?  Personally, I thought Stern should have taken the picks away altogether...It was that obvious and sickening to watch.  I predicted the scenario for us as soon as Paul had his 50+ game against Orlando and was sat for the season.  But to say there wasn't some kind of intervention is a real reach.  Call it justice prevailing or whatever you want to call it.  The messiah landing in Cleveland turned Cleveland into a bigger market....I don't see your logic there. 

If a draft can be fixed, so can the result of games. 


I truly, truly hope this garners attention from some politician who is a fan of a team that got screwed and has too much time on their hands.

So you're hoping for another corrupt, meaningless waste of  time that was the steroids investigation?  Government should have nothing to say about this.

I disagree, government should have a lot more to say about this. If the NBA is promoting and selling a fair sporting competition and is instead manufacturing outcomes to boost it's own profit, it is illegal and severe actions should be taken. Predetermined outcomes of games and draft lotteries is very different from players using steroids.

[Brickowski]

As I've said on prior occasions, the general quality of NBA officiating has been so poor that it is almost impossible to spot the fixers.  Did a guy blow a call on purpose, or was it just incompetence?

I hope that the Donaghy incident woke Stern up and that he is in the process of fixing all of this.  He took the officiating away from Stu Jackson, a welcome development, and handed it over to that ex- army general.  So, what has the ex-general been doing for the past year?

In fairness, the three regular season games I've watched so far (the two Celtics games and the Bulls-Spurs game), were officiated reasonably well.  In the Bulls-Spurs game, Parker was flopping on every play and the officials just swallowed their whistles.  Plus, there were two travelling calls. I was mildly shocked at this uncharacteristic display of competence by NBA officials.

[fairweatherfan]

As I've said on prior occasions, the general quality of NBA officiating has been so poor that it is almost impossible to spot the fixers.  Did a guy blow a call on purpose, or was it just incompetence?

I hope that the Donaghy incident woke Stern up and that he is in the process of fixing all of this.  He took the officiating away from Stu Jackson, a welcome development, and handed it over to that ex- army general.  So, what has the ex-general been doing for the past year?

In fairness, the three regular season games I've watched so far (the two Celtics games and the Bulls-Spurs game), were officiated reasonably well.  In the Bulls-Spurs game, Parker was flopping on every play and the officials just swallowed their whistles.  Plus, there were two travelling calls. I was mildly shocked at this uncharacteristic display of competence by NBA officials.

Me too - I think the combination of pressure to straighten up from these allegations, and being locked out has improved the officiating so far.  Although maybe it's just that not reffing the preseason means they're rusty and need a week or two to get into midseason form, heh.

I've gotta say too, I've been impressed by the relative lack of flopping, or getting rewarded when they do flop.  It really seems to have dropped off since its peak 3-4 years ago.  It still happens, but much, much less often.  I don't even remember Varejao trying it once during our game, which has gotta be a record.

[Finkelskyhook]

I'm on the other side of Brick on the officiating.  I think they have to be super good at what they do to apply different rules to different players with the accuracy they do.

Where I do agree is with the way these games are called...Whether contrived or incompetent, how do you tell?

It was amazing on opening night to see the messiah called for his carry.  But there still is bias.  If that'd have been Varajao or another role player blocking Rondo's shot on the layup instead of the messiah, the role player would have been whistled and probably given a flagrant one.

We're taking steps in the right direction.  But the only way this gets fixed is if there is only  one rulebook.