Celtics making new offer to Rondo TODAY (Per Ordway, WEEI)

[Roy Hobbs]

Honestly, I think all of this talk about numbers is pointless.  The way the salary cap works, in 90% of the situations, there is not a big difference between a $9 million a year contract, and a $12 million a year contract.  Most of the time, you are still going to be over the cap.

Teams are not killed by overpaying elite, building-block players by a few million a year.  Teams are killed by signing flawed, non-elite players to elite level contracts (I would consider an elite level contract, pretty much anything in the $10+ million a year range).  

I feel strongly that if the C's felt confident that Rondo was an elite level player, this would have gotten done a month ago.  However, I think they are still not convinced, and have decided that it is worth the risk to pay him a little more next season, in order to be a little more sure they are not screwing the team over by putting their future in the hands of the wrong guy.

Ultimately, it really is not going to make a huge difference in 3 years, if Rondo is making $11 million, or $13 million.  Because if they sign him for a "bargain" at 5 years, $50 million, and he turns out to be Kirk Hinrich or TJ Ford, once the Big 3 are gone, then the team is pretty screwed.  But if they wait a year, and sign him for 5 years, $65 million, and he turns out to be close to the Chris Paul/Deron Williams category, they are not going to care that they paid a few million extra, because they are going to have the production to match the money.

Yes and no.  Let's say the gap is $2 million in the first season.  That means in the 5th year of the deal, you're paying $4 million more than you otherwise would have.  If the team is over the luxury tax, that's $8 million.  With a team operating with a roughly $80 - $95 million budget, that's a fairly large disparity.

I agree, though, that at this point it makes sense to wait.  There's no sense in chipping in that extra $2 or $3 million more per year now, before we know if Rondo turned a corner in last year's playoffs or not.  If Rondo performs like a top five PG next season, then a $12 million per year contract makes sense.  If he repeats last season's performance, he should be looking at $8 or $9 million.

[BballTim]

Honestly, I think all of this talk about numbers is pointless.  The way the salary cap works, in 90% of the situations, there is not a big difference between a $9 million a year contract, and a $12 million a year contract.  Most of the time, you are still going to be over the cap.

Teams are not killed by overpaying elite, building-block players by a few million a year.  Teams are killed by signing flawed, non-elite players to elite level contracts (I would consider an elite level contract, pretty much anything in the $10+ million a year range).  

I feel strongly that if the C's felt confident that Rondo was an elite level player, this would have gotten done a month ago.  However, I think they are still not convinced, and have decided that it is worth the risk to pay him a little more next season, in order to be a little more sure they are not screwing the team over by putting their future in the hands of the wrong guy.

Ultimately, it really is not going to make a huge difference in 3 years, if Rondo is making $11 million, or $13 million.  Because if they sign him for a "bargain" at 5 years, $50 million, and he turns out to be Kirk Hinrich or TJ Ford, once the Big 3 are gone, then the team is pretty screwed.  But if they wait a year, and sign him for 5 years, $65 million, and he turns out to be close to the Chris Paul/Deron Williams category, they are not going to care that they paid a few million extra, because they are going to have the production to match the money.

Yes and no.  Let's say the gap is $2 million in the first season.  That means in the 5th year of the deal, you're paying $4 million more than you otherwise would have.  If the team is over the luxury tax, that's $8 million.  With a team operating with a roughly $80 - $95 million budget, that's a fairly large disparity.

I agree, though, that at this point it makes sense to wait.  There's no sense in chipping in that extra $2 or $3 million more per year now, before we know if Rondo turned a corner in last year's playoffs or not.  If Rondo performs like a top five PG next season, then a $12 million per year contract makes sense.  If he repeats last season's performance, he should be looking at $8 or $9 million.

  Last year he was pretty close to a top 5 pg. It's not like he was middle of the road.

[Chris]

Honestly, I think all of this talk about numbers is pointless.  The way the salary cap works, in 90% of the situations, there is not a big difference between a $9 million a year contract, and a $12 million a year contract.  Most of the time, you are still going to be over the cap.

Teams are not killed by overpaying elite, building-block players by a few million a year.  Teams are killed by signing flawed, non-elite players to elite level contracts (I would consider an elite level contract, pretty much anything in the $10+ million a year range).  

I feel strongly that if the C's felt confident that Rondo was an elite level player, this would have gotten done a month ago.  However, I think they are still not convinced, and have decided that it is worth the risk to pay him a little more next season, in order to be a little more sure they are not screwing the team over by putting their future in the hands of the wrong guy.

Ultimately, it really is not going to make a huge difference in 3 years, if Rondo is making $11 million, or $13 million.  Because if they sign him for a "bargain" at 5 years, $50 million, and he turns out to be Kirk Hinrich or TJ Ford, once the Big 3 are gone, then the team is pretty screwed.  But if they wait a year, and sign him for 5 years, $65 million, and he turns out to be close to the Chris Paul/Deron Williams category, they are not going to care that they paid a few million extra, because they are going to have the production to match the money.

Yes and no.  Let's say the gap is $2 million in the first season.  That means in the 5th year of the deal, you're paying $4 million more than you otherwise would have.  If the team is over the luxury tax, that's $8 million.  With a team operating with a roughly $80 - $95 million budget, that's a fairly large disparity.

I agree, though, that at this point it makes sense to wait.  There's no sense in chipping in that extra $2 or $3 million more per year now, before we know if Rondo turned a corner in last year's playoffs or not.  If Rondo performs like a top five PG next season, then a $12 million per year contract makes sense.  If he repeats last season's performance, he should be looking at $8 or $9 million.

  Last year he was pretty close to a top 5 pg. It's not like he was middle of the road.

Right, and he was also gameplanned almost completely out of the Orlando series.  Do you not think the C's brass look at that and want some assurance that is not going to happen again when Rondo is making $11 million a year?

[ManUp]

  Who said he's already asking for a max deal? I remember hearing him on the radio saying that he's not a max contract player yet but he hopes to be one some day.

I haven't seen anywhere saying he wants to be paid the maximum, but his demands aren't all that far off.  Marc Spears is reporting he wants to be paid like a top-5 point guard.  Top PG salaries:

Arenas $16.2 million - Wizards
Chris Paul $13.5 million - Hornets
Williams $13.5 million - Jazz
Nash $13.1 million - Suns
Parker - $12.6 million - Spurs
Davis $12.5 million - Clippers
Billups $12.1 million - Nuggets

So, he's likely asking for at least $12 million per year, and potentially $12 million in the first year.

A deal starting at $12 million would mean 5 years, $72.6 million.  A deal with an average annual value of $12 million would, of course, be 5 years, $60 million, which is consistent with what foxsports is reporting.  In a 5 year, $60 million deal, the starting value would be around $9.9 million in year one.

I think Rondo has earned himself Mo Williams, Deron Harris, Jameer Nelson, Andre Miller or Jose Calderon type money. I don't know what those guys are being paid right now, but that's the level of talent that Rondo is bracketed in with right now, IMO. I'd say Rondo's top 10 (6 or 7) in point guard rankings. I think he's better than each and every one of those guys(Harris is arguable), but he hasn't really proven it or if so hasn't proved he's that much better. Of the players you've listed the only one I'd take him over right now is Nash, and maybe Arenas (not because of talent). Nash's best seasons are behind him, and I'm not sure Arenas agenda is always winning.

BTW, Where did you find your numbers?

[EJPLAYA]

  Who said he's already asking for a max deal? I remember hearing him on the radio saying that he's not a max contract player yet but he hopes to be one some day.

I haven't seen anywhere saying he wants to be paid the maximum, but his demands aren't all that far off.  Marc Spears is reporting he wants to be paid like a top-5 point guard.  Top PG salaries:

Arenas $16.2 million - Wizards
Chris Paul $13.5 million - Hornets
Williams $13.5 million - Jazz
Nash $13.1 million - Suns
Parker - $12.6 million - Spurs
Davis $12.5 million - Clippers
Billups $12.1 million - Nuggets

So, he's likely asking for at least $12 million per year, and potentially $12 million in the first year.

A deal starting at $12 million would mean 5 years, $72.6 million.  A deal with an average annual value of $12 million would, of course, be 5 years, $60 million, which is consistent with what foxsports is reporting.  In a 5 year, $60 million deal, the starting value would be around $9.9 million in year one.

  I thought I read that he's asking for $55M -$60M but Ainge was offering around $45M. I might go into the low 50s if it might save some cash next year.

As I said, it depends on what source you believe.  $55 - $60 million isn't being paid like a top-five point guard.  Also, it always cracks me up when you see a range in negotiations.  It's either $55 million or $60 million, but I guarantee you that Bill Duffy didn't say, "we're looking for something between $55 and $60 million".  That would, of course, mean that his ceiling just moved to $55 million, as no team is going to give more than the low number.

TP. Well said. It is kind of like when people list their cars for sale and say 10k or best offer. They have just completely eliminated any chance of getting 10k for it. I think his agent is smarter than that for some reason.

As far as him being paid like a top 5 pg, he needs to PLAY like a top 5 pg first. He's a top ten pg no doubt, but until he can hit a jumper consistently, make his free throws, stop missing so many layups in traffic, and correct his bad habit of letting his man past him and trying to poke it away from behind he isn't in their class. He really ought to sign a 3 year deal for about 27-30 mil and then he should be a max player or closer to it by then. It would be better for us AND him.

[LB3533]

If Rondo was our number 1 or number 2 option, I can justify paying him 12 million per.

But he's not and he likely won't ever be a number 1 or number 2 option. (He doesn't have the offensive game for it.)

[Bankshot]

Free throws, free throws, free throws!

How can a guard get a fat contract when he shoots free throws like Shaq?  That's a huge liability right there.  I thought Rondo would come back this season shooting them better, but he hasn't.  When you have to put Eddie House in at the end of games because your point guard can't shoot free throws.....

[Celts17Pride]

Rondo will be traded before he gets $12 million per year from the Celtics IMO.

[pengaloo]

As a fan, I'm anxious to see a deal get done because the idea of losing him (no matter how remote) bothers me a lot. But deal or no deal, Rondo's going to be spectacular this year. Given his progress so far, there's reason to expect him to stall or get worse. It seems to me that Danny knows he has to pay up, so why not make Rondo earn it by winning a championship in the process? Rondo's game is all about challenges, so I think Danny's just doing what he thinks will encourage the best from his young point guard. And if we do end up paying Rondo max dollars next year because we didn't sign him for something less this year, so what? The amount of money the team makes from winning a championship more than makes up for it and who's going to complain that we have a young, worthy max-contract player?

My one worry is that Rondo's going to be playing for a contract and not necessary for the interest of the team. If someone's dangling $60M in front of my face, I'm not sure I'd be able to get that image out of my head. I'm hoping that won't be an issue, since the only way Danny would give Rondo a top 5 pg contract is if Rondo plays to Danny's liking. Otherwise, I can see the front office and the media leaking stories of immaturity to lower the offers that other teams can make.

[BballTim]

Honestly, I think all of this talk about numbers is pointless.  The way the salary cap works, in 90% of the situations, there is not a big difference between a $9 million a year contract, and a $12 million a year contract.  Most of the time, you are still going to be over the cap.

Teams are not killed by overpaying elite, building-block players by a few million a year.  Teams are killed by signing flawed, non-elite players to elite level contracts (I would consider an elite level contract, pretty much anything in the $10+ million a year range).  

I feel strongly that if the C's felt confident that Rondo was an elite level player, this would have gotten done a month ago.  However, I think they are still not convinced, and have decided that it is worth the risk to pay him a little more next season, in order to be a little more sure they are not screwing the team over by putting their future in the hands of the wrong guy.

Ultimately, it really is not going to make a huge difference in 3 years, if Rondo is making $11 million, or $13 million.  Because if they sign him for a "bargain" at 5 years, $50 million, and he turns out to be Kirk Hinrich or TJ Ford, once the Big 3 are gone, then the team is pretty screwed.  But if they wait a year, and sign him for 5 years, $65 million, and he turns out to be close to the Chris Paul/Deron Williams category, they are not going to care that they paid a few million extra, because they are going to have the production to match the money.

Yes and no.  Let's say the gap is $2 million in the first season.  That means in the 5th year of the deal, you're paying $4 million more than you otherwise would have.  If the team is over the luxury tax, that's $8 million.  With a team operating with a roughly $80 - $95 million budget, that's a fairly large disparity.

I agree, though, that at this point it makes sense to wait.  There's no sense in chipping in that extra $2 or $3 million more per year now, before we know if Rondo turned a corner in last year's playoffs or not.  If Rondo performs like a top five PG next season, then a $12 million per year contract makes sense.  If he repeats last season's performance, he should be looking at $8 or $9 million.

  Last year he was pretty close to a top 5 pg. It's not like he was middle of the road.

Right, and he was also gameplanned almost completely out of the Orlando series.  Do you not think the C's brass look at that and want some assurance that is not going to happen again when Rondo is making $11 million a year?

  No, he was gameplanned out of the last couple of games in the Orlando series. Obviously his outside shot is a flaw but the entire team was exhausted even going into that series. It seemed like he was doing better with his jumpshot against Chicago before he started playing 48-50 minutes a game. And the truth of the matter is they're not going to get any assurance that it will never happen again, just like they have no assurance that Ray won't have more postseason swoons or that the big three will remain healthy or that Rasheed will play better in the playoffs than he did against the Cavs.

 Danny has to make a best guess about what he'll get from Rondo over the next 4-5 years and make his offer based on that. Everyone here wants Rondo to prove he's worth the money before he gets it. Unfortunately it doesn't always work that way. For starters, no matter how he does next year, he'll likely be better during the contract as he gets more mature and experienced. Rondo's first contract was easy, rookie scale. If he signs a 3-5 year deal the contract after that will be easy because he'll be 26-28 with 6-8 years experience and you know what you're getting from him. This contract, the second contract, is hard to gauge because it's based on potential and expected growth. What happens if Rondo show some improvement in his outside shooting and ft shooting? That's still not a guarantee of future improvements. The truth of the matter is that if Danny will only pay Rondo based on what he's clearly shown he can do and not based on potential improvement there will be a GM that will take the other stance and pay him more than he's shown he's worth.

  Max players are max players, and Rondo isn't one. But there's a lot of players that are below that level and those are the tough ones to do. That's the category Rondo fits in.

[Brickowski]

As I said last week, there is no incentive for either side to get a deal done now.  By holding off on the extension, the Celtics get Rondo's services this year at way below his market value.  Rondo, meanwhile, has no incentive to take a lowball offer when he could get the max (or close to it) next Summer.  It makes sense for both sides to hold off, and I'll be astounded if anything gets done this week.

[BballTim]

As I said last week, there is no incentive for either side to get a deal done now.  By holding off on the extension, the Celtics get Rondo's services this year at way below his market value.  Rondo, meanwhile, has no incentive to take a lowball offer when he could get the max (or close to it) next Summer.  It makes sense for both sides to hold off, and I'll be astounded if anything gets done this week.

  I think an extension he signs this week would kick in next season, not this season. I don't think it affects what Rondo gets this year.

[Brickowski]

As I said last week, there is no incentive for either side to get a deal done now.  By holding off on the extension, the Celtics get Rondo's services this year at way below his market value.  Rondo, meanwhile, has no incentive to take a lowball offer when he could get the max (or close to it) next Summer.  It makes sense for both sides to hold off, and I'll be astounded if anything gets done this week.

  I think an extension he signs this week would kick in next season, not this season. I don't think it affects what Rondo gets this year.

Depends on how they structure it.

[Chris]

As I said last week, there is no incentive for either side to get a deal done now.  By holding off on the extension, the Celtics get Rondo's services this year at way below his market value.  Rondo, meanwhile, has no incentive to take a lowball offer when he could get the max (or close to it) next Summer.  It makes sense for both sides to hold off, and I'll be astounded if anything gets done this week.

  I think an extension he signs this week would kick in next season, not this season. I don't think it affects what Rondo gets this year.

Depends on how they structure it.

Tim is right.  No matter what, the contract would not kick in until next season.  But it would still tie the C's hands if they changed their minds, and wanted to explore trades.

[Brickowski]

Yes, I guess that's right.  They're over the cap, so they can't renegotiate this year's compensation.

But the Celtics do get a windfall if he doesn't like any of next Summer's offer sheets and decides to play for the QO so as to become unrestricted in 2011.