Projecting The Celtics Minutes (article by Rich Levine)

[xmuscularghandix]

http://www.csnne.com/pages/landing?Projecting-the-Celtics-Minutes=1&blockID=78560&feedID=3352

Projecting the Celtics Minutes
With the pre-season less than a week away, and the Celtics roster finally taking shape, I figured I’d take a shot at predicting the minutes for the 2009-10 squad…

… and that pretty much sums it up.

(Note: This is how I’m guessing things will look at the end of the season, not how I envision the minutes playing out over the course of any given game. For instance, the fact that I think J.R. Giddens will average seven minutes a game does not mean I think he’s playing seven minutes on opening night in Cleveland. But maybe that was already obvious.

In which case, you’ll never get the last 10 seconds back.)

THE GARBAGE MEN

Shelden Williams

Last Season: 13.4 minutes per game

Projected: 4.3 mpg

Williams will end up averaging a couple minutes a game, but it will always be accidental. I mean, you’ll never overhear Doc and Tom Thibodeau strategizing about how to get the Landlord his four minutes.

He’s essentially this season’s Patrick O’Bryant; a large body Doc can store on the bench in the event that KG’s feeling sore, Perk fouls out and Rasheed throws a replacement ref through the backboard… all in the same game.

Lester Hudson
Last Season: N/A

Projected: 3.5 mpg

I’m tempted to pencil Hudson in as a marginal role player in 2010. After all, he can score in bunches and got an impressive shot out from KG after Wednesday’s practice… but I don’t know.

His best chance to contribute is at back-up point guard, but that’s not his natural position; he still needs some fine-tuning. And I think Dr. Danny will prescribe one season of NBA training/NBDL experience before Hudson gets any significant burn.

Either way, there’s something about this kid that excites me—although at this point I’m not sure how much of that can be attributed to his mohawk.

 
THE FRINGE GUYS

One of these three will earn a spot in the rotation (as a primary back up to Pierce or Allen), while the other two will spend their nights waving a towel with the Landlord.

Tony Allen

Last Season: 19.3 mpg

Projected: 17.4 mpg

J.R. Giddens
Last Season: 1.3 mpg

Projected: 7.3 mpg

Bill Walker

Last Season: 7.4 mp3

Projected: N/A

And as you can see, I’m giving the early edge to T.A.

Allen’s my Celtics equivalent of Laurence Maroney. This season, or more specifically, the first two months of this season, is his absolute last chance to prove himself. If he impresses, then maybe I’ll re-think my hatred, but if he fails (again), then that’s it. Door’s closed. I’m done with him.

As for Giddens, I see him playing the Gabe Pruitt role this season. Not in the sense that he’ll serve time at the point, but in that he starts this year as the odd man out. He’ll ride the pine for the first month or so, but at some point, for one reason or another, he’ll get a chance to prove himself. How he responds to that opportunity will go a long way in determining his future with the team.

(J.R., just a little advice, I’d avoid going the DUI route).

Lastly, I’m not taking any guesses on Walker. When a guy with a history of knee problems goes down with a knee problem, it’s impossible to predict what will happen next. I’m hoping for the best; that he’ll be back in six-eight weeks, ready to challenge T.A. for minutes at the “3”, but who knows.

For the record, if I’d written this column on Wednesday morning, Walker would’ve been ranked ahead of Tony.


OLD RELIABLE

Brian Scalabrine

Last Season: 12.9 mpg

Projected: 10 mpg

Scal will rack up a bunch of DNPs this year, and probably won’t have an impact unless the Cs run into injury issues, but if (or, more likely, when) they do, No. 44 will be ready to roll.

He’s got the sharpest basketball brain on the team, and at some point that’s going to pay dividends.

 

THE BENCH

Marquis Daniels
Last Season: 31.4 mpg

Projected: 28.3 mpg

Something tells me we’ll be seeing a lot of Quisy this seezy. He’s the team’s most viable reserve at both point guard and small forward, and, despite the fact that he was relegated to the hapless Pacers the past three seasons, Daniels has his fair share of big game/high pressure experience from his days in Dallas. 

Eddie House

Last Season: 18.3 mpg

Projected: 18.5 mpg

House averaged 18.3 minutes last season. Two years ago, he averaged 19. There’s no reason to believe this year will be any different; nothing about his role has changed.

And since I have nothing else to add, here are two leftover Eddie quotes that didn’t make it into my Media Day story:

1. How do you improve upon a season where you set a team record in your area of expertise?

“All I can do is be better than I was last year. You know, maybe just not start as slow, and try and pick up right where I left off last year. I’ve got to be more consistent early on. Last season I couldn’t find my stroke, and the just all of a sudden (snap), in one game it clicked, and that carried over to the next game, and that carried over to the next game and then I was rolling. “

2. At which position are you most comfortable?

“It doesn’t matter where I’m at, as long as I’m on the court. You know, I can bring it up, I can play off the ball, and I think that’s an attribute that I have. I’m not stuck in a mold where I have to do this, or have to do that. I can do both, and give them some leeway.”

Glen Davis

Last Season: 21.5 mpg

Projected: 24.8 mpg

There are 96 PF/C minutes a night to go around among BBD, Rasheed, KG and Perk, and it’s fair to assume that Davis plays the least out of the bunch.

More on this in a later column, but I think “How will Big Baby handle his role?” is one of the biggest questions facing the Celtics in 2010.

*The combined minutes of the four big guys in this column will exceed 96, based on the assumption that KG will miss at least 10-12 games over the course of the season.

Rasheed Wallace
Last Season: 32.5 mpg

Projected: 30.1 mpg

Rasheed has said that he’s not worried about playing big minutes in Boston, because he’s only interested in helping the team win.

Another reason he’s not worrying? He doesn’t have to.

Regardless of what happens with KG’s knee, Wallace is going to play, and he’s going to play a lot.

 

THE STARTERS

Rajon Rondo

Last Season: 33 mpg

Projected: 37.1 mpg

If there’s a reason why Danny and Doc weren’t entirely motivated to find a true back-up point guard this off-season, it’s that there probably won’t be as many extra point guard minutes available.

Or at least that’s what I’m telling myself.

Chris Paul averaged 38.5 minutes a game last year; Derrick Rose averaged 37; Deron Williams averaged 36.8; Devin Harris averaged 36; and Rondo… averaged 33. That’s just wrong.

With his extension looming, the Celtics need to determine whether Rondo’s worthy of max-contact money, and the only way to do that is to play him max-contract minutes.

Ray Allen

Last Season: 36.4 mpg

Projected: 34.8 mpg

Heading into last season, the plan was to cut back on Ray’s minutes, but of course, he ended up playing more.

I blame Ray.

How the hell is Doc supposed to substitute for a guy who NEVER looks tired? Ever. It could be minute one, or minute 51, and you’re seeing the same exact Ray Allen. He’s not sweating, pressing, or even out of breath. He’s like a robot.

Allen’s minutes should go down a little, but I don’t think by much.

Kendrick Perkins

Last Season: 29.6 mpg

Projected: 28.3 mpg

After a breakout season (of sorts) in 2009, it’s only natural to assume that Perk would see his minutes increase, but I don’t see it that way. As much as we’ve all grown to respect Perk’s game, the Celtics didn’t bring Rasheed on board to have him ride the pine in crunch time—and Perk is the starter who stands to lose most from the Need for Sheed.

Paul Pierce

Last Season: 37.5 mpg

Projected: 34 mpg

I think this is the year that the C’s actually make good on their vow to limit Pierce’s minutes. What other choice do they have?

Pierce was a dead man walking last spring; it was painful to watch. And now that Daniels is on board, Doc has no excuse.

Give El Capitan some rest!

Kevin Garnett

Last Season: 31.1

Projected: 27

This is obviously the toughest one to predict, since we still have no clue how serious KG’s surgery was. Yeah, yeah… I know, he’s been cleared to play, and will be on the court in the pre-season… but come on!?

You really think this soap opera is over? You really believe that this knee won’t be a constant issue throughout the season?

More on that next week, but for now, I’ll give KG a generous/very optimistic 27 minutes a game.

[Cman]

Thanks.  Very interesting read.  The projections for BBD, Wallace and Garnett are interesting.  I would have thought less for the first two, more for the last, but I guess it all depends on the injury.  And for the record, I am all for slowly working Garnett back.  With BBD and Sheed on board, the Cs can afford to be careful with Garnett.

Also found Giddens' projection interesting (~7mpg).  He's right that this is JRG's big moment with Walker injured.  It'll be interesting to see what he's got.

[Roy Hobbs]

The averages come out to well over 300 minutes per game.  A game has 240 available minutes, meaning Levine is predicting some major injuries here.

I think he's too high on Tony's, BBD's, Scal's, and Rasheed's minutes, and too low with KG.  However, predicting season minutes ahead of time is basically pointless, since we have no idea how things will play out.

[xmuscularghandix]

The averages come out to well over 300 minutes per game.  A game has 240 available minutes, meaning Levine is predicting some major injuries here.

I think he's too high on Tony's, BBD's, Scal's, and Rasheed's minutes, and too low with KG.  However, predicting season minutes ahead of time is basically pointless, since we have no idea how things will play out.

he states that he's not creating the minute totals on a full 15 man rotation (not possible), he's talking about what he thinks it'll work out to be.

I think its a good read based on how he's talking about roles, i think he's dead on in that aspect.

(Note: This is how I’m guessing things will look at the end of the season, not how I envision the minutes playing out over the course of any given game. For instance, the fact that I think J.R. Giddens will average seven minutes a game does not mean I think he’s playing seven minutes on opening night in Cleveland. But maybe that was already obvious.

In which case, you’ll never get the last 10 seconds back.)

[CoachBo]

Interesting read, but a futile exercise in time. Reminds me of parents coming in during the preseason to tell me that anything less than 14 mpg for their kids was unacceptable.

Arbitrary, and meaningless from where I sit.

[Roy Hobbs]

he states that he's not creating the minute totals on a full 15 man rotation (not possible), he's talking about what he thinks it'll work out to be.

I think its a good read based on how he's talking about roles, i think he's dead on in that aspect.

Yeah, I don't want to take anything away from Levine.  I just tend to agree with CoachBo that the whole exercise is pointless.

I mean, regarding roles, we all know that there will be four bigs who are rotated heavily.  We know Daniels will be the primary backup for Pierce, Ray, and Rondo.  We know Rondo and House will be the point guards.  We know that Williams, Hudson, and presumably Giddens won't see much time.

If we're healthy, we're going to basically have a nine man rotation:  Perk, KG, Pierce, Ray, Rondo, Rasheed, Daniels, House, BBD.  Scal, Tony, and eventually Walker will compete for some spot minutes, but basically, it's those nine guys who will make or break our season.

[xmuscularghandix]

he states that he's not creating the minute totals on a full 15 man rotation (not possible), he's talking about what he thinks it'll work out to be.

I think its a good read based on how he's talking about roles, i think he's dead on in that aspect.

Yeah, I don't want to take anything away from Levine.  I just tend to agree with CoachBo that the whole exercise is pointless.

I mean, regarding roles, we all know that there will be four bigs who are rotated heavily.  We know Daniels will be the primary backup for Pierce, Ray, and Rondo.  We know Rondo and House will be the point guards.  We know that Williams, Hudson, and presumably Giddens won't see much time.

If we're healthy, we're going to basically have a nine man rotation:  Perk, KG, Pierce, Ray, Rondo, Rasheed, Daniels, House, BBD.  Scal, Tony, and eventually Walker will compete for some spot minutes, but basically, it's those nine guys who will make or break our season.

Spot on.

[amenhotep04]

The averages come out to well over 300 minutes per game.  A game has 240 available minutes, meaning Levine is predicting some major injuries here.

I think he's too high on Tony's, BBD's, Scal's, and Rasheed's minutes, and too low with KG.  However, predicting season minutes ahead of time is basically pointless, since we have no idea how things will play out.

It doesn't have to be injuries, major or not.  DNPs don't count toward average minutes per game.

But as you and everyone has said, pretty pointless.