What are reasonable expectations for the Patriots

[Rondo2287]

I think Buffalo is the second best team in the division.  Im thankful we play them when Lynch is suspended, but they still have two great wide receiveer options and on a day when trent edwards is playing decently they could be a dangerous team. 

And Im sorry, but I think this offense is better than the 16 and 0 season.  You add Fred Taylor to the backfield and Baker who has proven to be a pretty reliable TE and then you have Welker and Moss being more comfortable with Brady. 

I dont think they will put up the same numbers but I think their rushing attack will be much better which will allow the pats to control the clock more.  Which again helps the D

[the_Bird]

16-0 obviously is wholly unrealistic to expect since it's happened what, ONCE in NFL history (twice if you want to count the '72 Dolphins 14-0).

I'd be shocked if they aren't one of the League's elite teams again this year, but there are still huge questions about the defense.  We need some of the young linebackers to step up, we need a more-consistent pass rush, we need the defensive line, as talented as it is, to be more consistent against the rush, and we need the young talent in the secondary to gel.  There's a lot of things that need to happen on that side of the ball.  We'll score points, Brady will be fine, Moss and Welker and the new tight ends will be good, the rush game should be OK if unexceptional - but there are so many question marks on the defensive side I'd be pleasantly surprised with a 12-4 or 13-3 mark and not surprised at all by 11-5.  

[Fafnir]

Rondo Fred Taylor isn't very good anymore. He's a nice addition as another option, but he doesn't add another dimension to the offense.

[Hoyo de Monterrey]

Faf I disagree about the Division.  Miami was a one hit wonder playing with the Wildcat.  Teams will have had all offseason to gameplan against it, and with a front four of Seymour, Wilfork, Brace, Warren they will have to pass the ball which I will take everyday of the week with pennington throwing the ball.  

Buffalo wont be a problem, the Jets will be pretty bad I think.  

And people worry about the pats defense, but being up big will put other teams into pass only situations which will make the patriots defense alot better knowing that its coming.  The 16-0 defense while good was made better by the big leads they were protecting.  

I disagree with much of this. For starters, while Miami's Wildcat gimmick will take a step back this year and their offense will still be somewhat weak overall, they have a defense that has plenty of playmakers. Plus while Pennington can't throw over 20 yards, Camarillo is the kind of Welkerish receiver he could utilize to be effective, especially against our shoddy looking nickel and dime corner situation. Fasano is another player that could hurt the Pats bigtime, as they have consistently struggled with Dallas Clark-like tight ends. Do I think they will trouble the Patriots? Not really. Could they steal one like they did last year? It's certainly possible.

I agree. Buffalo sucks.

However, do not make the mistake of sleeping on the New York Jets. I would be borderline shocked if the Pats went 2-0 against the Jets this season. When you are all finished laughing, take into consideration this defensive lineup:

NT: Kris Jenkins (Top five in league at position)
DE: Marques Douglas, Shaun Ellis
OLB: Calvin Pace, Bryan Thomas (With a by all accounts improved Vernon Gholston waiting)
ILB: Bart Scott, David Harris (Both of which I would take over Gary Guyton)
CB: Lito Sheppard, Darrelle Revis (And Dwight Lowery as a nickel)
S: Kerry Rhodes, Jim Leonhard (Rhodes is Adrian Wilson Lite)

That's pretty nasty. Couple that with a top-10 offensive line, a couple moderately effective running backs, one of the best up and coming pass catching tight ends in football (Dustin Keller) and a proven special teams stud (Washington). If Sanchez clicks at all with Keller or Cotchery (think 2008 Joe Flacco), this is a wildcard team.

Don't get me wrong, I'm a huge Pats fan, but the division is not a cakewalk this year.

Except for Buffalo. Who still sucks.

[Rondo2287]

I think Fred Taylor is still a starting caliber RB.  And when you look at what Morris and Jordan were able to do at the end of last year do you not think Taylor will be able to do the same if not better?

Mon 9/14/2009 7:00 PM vs Bills ESPN / WCVB     Easy win
Sun 9/20/2009 1:00 PM @ Jets WBZ / CBS         Easy win
Sun 9/27/2009 1:00 PM vs Falcons WFXT / FOX    Win
Sun 10/4/2009 1:00 PM vs Ravens WBZ            Win
Sun 10/11/2009 4:15 PM @ Broncos WBZ / CBS     Easy Win
Sun 10/18/2009 4:15 PM vs Titans WBZ / CBS     Easy Win(defense not as good, running game not as good, at home)
Sun 10/25/2009 1:00 PM @ Buccaneers CBS        Easy Win  
Sun 11/1/2009  vs Bye                  
Sun 11/8/2009 1:00 PM vs Dolphins WBZ / CBS    Easy Win  
Sun 11/15/2009 8:20 PM @ Colts WHDH / NBC      Tough Win
Sun 11/22/2009 4:15 PM vs Jets WBZ / CBS       Tough win, tough to beat any team twice
Mon 11/30/2009 8:30 PM @ Saints WCVB / ESPN    Tough win  
Sun 12/6/2009 8:20 PM @ Dolphins WHDH / NBC    Easy win, Miami weather late in season a good break for pats
Sun 12/13/2009 1:00 PM vs Panthers             Win
Sun 12/20/2009 1:00 PM @ Bills WBZ / CBS       Easy Win
Sun 12/27/2009 1:00 PM vs Jaguars WBZ / CBS    Tough Win
Sun 1/3/2010 1:00 PM @ Texans WBZ / CBS        Easy Win

 
I just dont see a team on their besides indy and NO that gives us problems.  

NO is one of the best passing teams in the league which is why I think we may have problems

[Mike-Dub]

I think Fred Taylor is still a starting caliber RB.  And when you look at what Morris and Jordan were able to do at the end of last year do you not think Taylor will be able to do the same if not better?

Mon 9/14/2009 7:00 PM vs Bills ESPN / WCVB     Easy win
Sun 9/20/2009 1:00 PM @ Jets WBZ / CBS         Easy win
Sun 9/27/2009 1:00 PM vs Falcons WFXT / FOX    Win
Sun 10/4/2009 1:00 PM vs Ravens WBZ            Win
Sun 10/11/2009 4:15 PM @ Broncos WBZ / CBS     Easy Win
Sun 10/18/2009 4:15 PM vs Titans WBZ / CBS     Easy Win(defense not as good, running game not as good, at home)
Sun 10/25/2009 1:00 PM @ Buccaneers CBS        Easy Win  
Sun 11/1/2009  vs Bye                  
Sun 11/8/2009 1:00 PM vs Dolphins WBZ / CBS    Easy Win  
Sun 11/15/2009 8:20 PM @ Colts WHDH / NBC      Tough Win
Sun 11/22/2009 4:15 PM vs Jets WBZ / CBS       Tough win, tough to beat any team twice
Mon 11/30/2009 8:30 PM @ Saints WCVB / ESPN    Tough win  
Sun 12/6/2009 8:20 PM @ Dolphins WHDH / NBC    Easy win, Miami weather late in season a good break for pats
Sun 12/13/2009 1:00 PM vs Panthers             Win
Sun 12/20/2009 1:00 PM @ Bills WBZ / CBS       Easy Win
Sun 12/27/2009 1:00 PM vs Jaguars WBZ / CBS    Tough Win
Sun 1/3/2010 1:00 PM @ Texans WBZ / CBS        Easy Win

 
I just dont see a team on their besides indy and NO that gives us problems.  

NO is one of the best passing teams in the league which is why I think we may have problems

I agree with you but I don't think the Colts will be a tough challenge this year... I think this year will be not a rebuilding one but a change on the fly for them with getting adjusted to the new coaching and not having Marvin Harrison.

[Rondo2287]

Basically it comes down to this, Do you think losing Harrison and Vrabel while gaining guys like springs and Bodden, and lets not forget Tom Brady will result in a better result than last year?  

This team was 11-5 last year.  Then you add in arguably the best QB of all time, I dont see how people think they could go 11-5 again

[CDawg834]

With Brady looking healthy(ignoring the minor shoulder thing)and a platoon of good running backs with Taylor, Morris and Faulk, one of if not the best receiving core in the NFL, a good offensive line, and a mixed bag on defense, could be good could be pretty average, what do you think are reasonable expectations for this team. 

I think another 16-0 regular season isnt out of the question. 

The defense has been trending downward, I'm not sure how good it will be as they continue to turn over the personale. I don't think you can expect the offense to be as good as that record breaking year though, so another 16-0 is not going to happen.

Even that year the Pats had to get lucky in a few games to pull it out.

Prime example being the MNF Ravens game that quite honestly, the Pats shouldn't have won.

As for this year, I would say 12-14 wins is not at all unreasonable.  They went 11-5 with a backup QB and statistically, a below-average defense.  If the defense is better than last year they are absolutely a Super Bowl contender again.

[the_Bird]

Basically it comes down to this, Do you think losing Harrison and Vrabel while gaining guys like springs and Bodden, and lets not forget Tom Brady will result in a better result than last year?  

This team was 11-5 last year.  Then you add in arguably the best QB of all time, I dont see how people think they could go 11-5 again

As I recall, the schedule last year was relatively easy.  Not that they didn't earn those 11 wins, but the baseline for repeating that performance will likely be more difficult. 

Just too many question marks on D to realistically expect a lot more than 11 or 12 wins.  I'm not convinced they've done enough to be able to get stops consistently; if the defense comes together, they'll be great, but that may take some time.  It's also not like an 11- or 12-win team ISN'T a Super Bowl contender, I have no doubt that the Pats are one of the four or five teams with the best chance of winning - but you don't usually see five teams with 13 wins.

[Rondo2287]

Fair enough. I just wish it were allowed in the rules of this blog for me to set up an "I told you so" thread later on in the year .......I agree, this defense does have some question marks, but I  am confident that they will play well.  I think our secondary is much improved and it appears as though our d-line is healthy for the first time in a while which I think will pay off big time. 

[Chris]

Fair enough. I just wish it were allowed in the rules of this blog for me to set up an "I told you so" thread later on in the year .......I agree, this defense does have some question marks, but I  am confident that they will play well.  I think our secondary is much improved and it appears as though our d-line is healthy for the first time in a while which I think will pay off big time. 

Well, I don't think an "I told you so" would be in order, when all people are saying is that it is unfair to EXPECT a 16-0 season from anyone.  Obviously you have more faith in them than others, but I don't think anyone else is doubting them very much...they just aren't going over the top with expectations. 

But then again, it might just be the definition of expectations that is the problem here.  I would define it as the minimum the team should do without it being a disapointment of a season.  And I think its unfair to call it a disapointment if they don't go undefeated.

[Cman]

I think 13-3 is a reasonable prediction.
Of course, you never know what injuries will unfold as the season progresses...  

[Hoyo de Monterrey]

I think Fred Taylor is still a starting caliber RB.  And when you look at what Morris and Jordan were able to do at the end of last year do you not think Taylor will be able to do the same if not better?

Mon 9/14/2009 7:00 PM vs Bills ESPN / WCVB     Easy win
Sun 9/20/2009 1:00 PM @ Jets WBZ / CBS         Easy win
Sun 9/27/2009 1:00 PM vs Falcons WFXT / FOX    Win
Sun 10/4/2009 1:00 PM vs Ravens WBZ            Win
Sun 10/11/2009 4:15 PM @ Broncos WBZ / CBS     Easy Win
Sun 10/18/2009 4:15 PM vs Titans WBZ / CBS     Easy Win(defense not as good, running game not as good, at home)
Sun 10/25/2009 1:00 PM @ Buccaneers CBS        Easy Win  
Sun 11/1/2009  vs Bye                  
Sun 11/8/2009 1:00 PM vs Dolphins WBZ / CBS    Easy Win  
Sun 11/15/2009 8:20 PM @ Colts WHDH / NBC      Tough Win
Sun 11/22/2009 4:15 PM vs Jets WBZ / CBS       Tough win, tough to beat any team twice
Mon 11/30/2009 8:30 PM @ Saints WCVB / ESPN    Tough win  
Sun 12/6/2009 8:20 PM @ Dolphins WHDH / NBC    Easy win, Miami weather late in season a good break for pats
Sun 12/13/2009 1:00 PM vs Panthers             Win
Sun 12/20/2009 1:00 PM @ Bills WBZ / CBS       Easy Win
Sun 12/27/2009 1:00 PM vs Jaguars WBZ / CBS    Tough Win
Sun 1/3/2010 1:00 PM @ Texans WBZ / CBS        Easy Win

 
I just dont see a team on their besides indy and NO that gives us problems.  

NO is one of the best passing teams in the league which is why I think we may have problems

This is pretty optimistic stuff. For example, how did Tennessee's running game decline when LenDale White came into camp lighter and faster and still retained his short yardage power? Chris Johnson is still Chris Johnson, and their O-Line isn't too different. D's a little weaker, but they are still tough and physical.

Can't call the Bucs game an easy win, it's being played in London. If for no other reason then the weird situation surrounding it, I'm putting it as a catch a break game.

Also, how is Houston in week 17 an easy win? That will be a team fighting for a playoff spot in the last game of the season between a relatively down Colts and Titans team, and they start Schaub, Andre Johnson, Steve Slaton, Owen Daniels and an improved offensive line to go with some defensive studs (Mario Williams, Ryans-Cushing-Adibi LB corps, Amobi Okoye, etc.). They are young, and they are good. They'll be fighting at home in Week 17 for a playoff berth, a game that is not even close to an easy win.

Easy wins: Buffalo Wk 1, @Denver Wk 5, Miami Wk 9, @Buffalo Wk 15

Catch one or two breaks should be wins: @NYJ Wk 2, @TB Wk 7 (London), NYJ Wk 11, @Miami Wk 13, Carolina wk 14, Jacksonville wk 15

Toss ups: Atlanta Wk 3, Baltimore Wk 4, Tennessee Wk 6, @Indy Wk 10, @NO Wk 12, @Houston wk 17

Win 3 of the six toss up games, and lose one of the middle group games gets me to 12-4. That's where I see them this year as a base expectation. Better then that, I'm not surprised. Worse then that, the season is a MAJOR disappointment.

[Fafnir]

Basically it comes down to this, Do you think losing Harrison and Vrabel while gaining guys like springs and Bodden, and lets not forget Tom Brady will result in a better result than last year?  

This team was 11-5 last year.  Then you add in arguably the best QB of all time, I dont see how people think they could go 11-5 again

I think your defense is merely okay. I think Brady is a big plus, but will be be as good as he was that 16-0 year? Probably not, that was his career best and something special.

I can see 14-2, but not 16-0.

[JSD]

I predict 16 - 3 with a 4th Super Bowl. Brady has looked great moving in the pocket and Moss is still at the top of his game. The Defense like past preseasons is not revealing but still improved (healthy, younger ect.)