What are reasonable expectations for the Patriots

[nickagneta]

I see a loss to the Colts possibly. A loss to the Dolphins. A loss to either the Falcons, the Ravens, or the Panthers. There might be an upset loss as well. I say 13-3 but 12-4 wouldn't surprise me. I would be really disappointed if they didn't at least get to play in the AFC Championship game.

What the 2007 season taught me was that championships shouldn't be expect but cheered for hoped for. So I'll be disappointed if they don't make the AFC Championship and really hoping they win that game and the SuperBowl.

[Big_Matt34]

13-3 and i think they can and will make it to the SB. Brandon Meriwether is going to be a pro bowler this year. Mayo will be one of the favorite for DPOY, and Gary Guyton is going to have a very good year as the 2nd ILB.

They key to the defense is the same as it seems to have been the last few years, will they be able to get pressure on the quarterback? People can talk about the secondary from last year all they want, but its hard to defend any WR when the QB has as much time as they had last year.

[Rondo2287]

I think Fred Taylor is still a starting caliber RB.  And when you look at what Morris and Jordan were able to do at the end of last year do you not think Taylor will be able to do the same if not better?

Mon 9/14/2009 7:00 PM vs Bills ESPN / WCVB     Easy win
Sun 9/20/2009 1:00 PM @ Jets WBZ / CBS         Easy win
Sun 9/27/2009 1:00 PM vs Falcons WFXT / FOX    Win
Sun 10/4/2009 1:00 PM vs Ravens WBZ            Win
Sun 10/11/2009 4:15 PM @ Broncos WBZ / CBS     Easy Win
Sun 10/18/2009 4:15 PM vs Titans WBZ / CBS     Easy Win(defense not as good, running game not as good, at home)
Sun 10/25/2009 1:00 PM @ Buccaneers CBS        Easy Win  
Sun 11/1/2009  vs Bye                  
Sun 11/8/2009 1:00 PM vs Dolphins WBZ / CBS    Easy Win  
Sun 11/15/2009 8:20 PM @ Colts WHDH / NBC      Tough Win
Sun 11/22/2009 4:15 PM vs Jets WBZ / CBS       Tough win, tough to beat any team twice
Mon 11/30/2009 8:30 PM @ Saints WCVB / ESPN    Tough win  
Sun 12/6/2009 8:20 PM @ Dolphins WHDH / NBC    Easy win, Miami weather late in season a good break for pats
Sun 12/13/2009 1:00 PM vs Panthers             Win
Sun 12/20/2009 1:00 PM @ Bills WBZ / CBS       Easy Win
Sun 12/27/2009 1:00 PM vs Jaguars WBZ / CBS    Tough Win
Sun 1/3/2010 1:00 PM @ Texans WBZ / CBS        Easy Win

 
I just dont see a team on their besides indy and NO that gives us problems.  

NO is one of the best passing teams in the league which is why I think we may have problems

This is pretty optimistic stuff. For example, how did Tennessee's running game decline when LenDale White came into camp lighter and faster and still retained his short yardage power? Chris Johnson is still Chris Johnson, and their O-Line isn't too different. D's a little weaker, but they are still tough and physical.

Can't call the Bucs game an easy win, it's being played in London. If for no other reason then the weird situation surrounding it, I'm putting it as a catch a break game.

Also, how is Houston in week 17 an easy win? That will be a team fighting for a playoff spot in the last game of the season between a relatively down Colts and Titans team, and they start Schaub, Andre Johnson, Steve Slaton, Owen Daniels and an improved offensive line to go with some defensive studs (Mario Williams, Ryans-Cushing-Adibi LB corps, Amobi Okoye, etc.). They are young, and they are good. They'll be fighting at home in Week 17 for a playoff berth, a game that is not even close to an easy win.

Easy wins: Buffalo Wk 1, @Denver Wk 5, Miami Wk 9, @Buffalo Wk 15

Catch one or two breaks should be wins: @NYJ Wk 2, @TB Wk 7 (London), NYJ Wk 11, @Miami Wk 13, Carolina wk 14, Jacksonville wk 15

Toss ups: Atlanta Wk 3, Baltimore Wk 4, Tennessee Wk 6, @Indy Wk 10, @NO Wk 12, @Houston wk 17

Win 3 of the six toss up games, and lose one of the middle group games gets me to 12-4. That's where I see them this year as a base expectation. Better then that, I'm not surprised. Worse then that, the season is a MAJOR disappointment.

I guess when I hear that a power back like white comes into camp 30 pounds lighter I assume he lost some of the power that he has hung his hat on.  And im not taking anything away from teams like Atlanta, Houston, Tenessee, but the patriots are just plain better.  On paper and in intangibles. 

[Rondo2287]

Wow I really cant believe the lack of love the defense is getting here.  Not only do we have one of the best defensive coaches in the history of the game, but we have easily one of the best d-lines in the game as well as two of the top linebackers in Mayo and Thomas. A young and talented secondary with good veterans like Springs and Bodden brought into the mix as well. 

[Big_Matt34]

I think Fred Taylor is still a starting caliber RB.  And when you look at what Morris and Jordan were able to do at the end of last year do you not think Taylor will be able to do the same if not better?

Mon 9/14/2009 7:00 PM vs Bills ESPN / WCVB     Easy win
Sun 9/20/2009 1:00 PM @ Jets WBZ / CBS         Easy win
Sun 9/27/2009 1:00 PM vs Falcons WFXT / FOX    Win
Sun 10/4/2009 1:00 PM vs Ravens WBZ            Win
Sun 10/11/2009 4:15 PM @ Broncos WBZ / CBS     Easy Win
Sun 10/18/2009 4:15 PM vs Titans WBZ / CBS     Easy Win(defense not as good, running game not as good, at home)
Sun 10/25/2009 1:00 PM @ Buccaneers CBS        Easy Win  
Sun 11/1/2009  vs Bye                  
Sun 11/8/2009 1:00 PM vs Dolphins WBZ / CBS    Easy Win  
Sun 11/15/2009 8:20 PM @ Colts WHDH / NBC      Tough Win
Sun 11/22/2009 4:15 PM vs Jets WBZ / CBS       Tough win, tough to beat any team twice
Mon 11/30/2009 8:30 PM @ Saints WCVB / ESPN    Tough win  
Sun 12/6/2009 8:20 PM @ Dolphins WHDH / NBC    Easy win, Miami weather late in season a good break for pats
Sun 12/13/2009 1:00 PM vs Panthers             Win
Sun 12/20/2009 1:00 PM @ Bills WBZ / CBS       Easy Win
Sun 12/27/2009 1:00 PM vs Jaguars WBZ / CBS    Tough Win
Sun 1/3/2010 1:00 PM @ Texans WBZ / CBS        Easy Win

 
I just dont see a team on their besides indy and NO that gives us problems.  

NO is one of the best passing teams in the league which is why I think we may have problems

Its not as simple as that, no win is a guaranteed easy win. Them going 16-0 was a freak thing, think about the years they won SB's, they had head scratching losses every year, it happens. Losing 31-0 to the Bills, losing to the Dolphins when they were awful, teams usually lose atleast one suprise game a year.

I think its possible this team is better built to win a SB than two years ago, but they wont go 16-0. I think they lose to the Colts and Dolphins on the road, and one of the Jets games, Rex Ryan was a great hire for them and their defense is top 5 IMO.

[Rondo2287]

If I have to pick one game they lose its NO on the road

[Big_Matt34]

Wow I really cant believe the lack of love the defense is getting here.  Not only do we have one of the best defensive coaches in the history of the game, but we have easily one of the best d-lines in the game as well as two of the top linebackers in Mayo and Thomas. A young and talented secondary with good veterans like Springs and Bodden brought into the mix as well. 

I think their defense can be good to very good, but there are alot of questions. Can Seymour play like he did the first half of last year? Can Warren stay healthy? Will Burgess play like he did a few years ago? Can James Sanders stop sucking? Will age catch up to Springs?

I think Seymour and Burgess are the key to the defense being very good. If they are right and play to their talent levels, opposing QB's wont have much time to throw and that will make the secondary look better. Of those questions, i believe most of it works out well, but i think James Sanders will be a huge liability in coverage as always and Warren will have a tough time staying healthy.

[Rondo2287]

I dunno Matt, I have always been Pretty high on James Sanders, I think he has always been solid although not spectacular.  I think you can do alot worse in this league than james sanders

[Chris]

Wow I really cant believe the lack of love the defense is getting here.  Not only do we have one of the best defensive coaches in the history of the game, but we have easily one of the best d-lines in the game as well as two of the top linebackers in Mayo and Thomas. A young and talented secondary with good veterans like Springs and Bodden brought into the mix as well. 

Well, I think the problem is that the defense was pretty terrible last year, and has been declining pretty steadily for the last several years.  They also have lost their three leaders of the past 7-8 years (Bruschi, Vrabel and Harrison).  

Yes, they have improved their overall talent and speed on defense, and on paper, I believe they should be good.  However, they also run very complicated schemes, and are going to be asking for a lot of young guys who have only shown flashes in the past at most (Merriweather, Guyton, Crable, Woods, Butler, Wheatley, Wilhite), and a couple veterans who are new to the system, and aren't really coming off career years (Bodden, Springs, Burgess) to play a ton of snaps.  Really, the only sure things are the D-line as a whole, Mayo, and MAYBE James Sanders (although what you can be sure of with him is his mediocrity).  

So while the defense has huge upside, and could be dramatically better, it also has some huge questionmarks.  And given the lack of success the Pats have had bringing new guys into the defense over the last 5 years or so, there is plenty of reason to wonder how good the defense will be.

Now with that said, they could be one of the worst defenses in the league, and still go 12-4 IMO, because the offense will likely be THAT good.  

[Big_Matt34]

I dunno Matt, I have always been Pretty high on James Sanders, I think he has always been solid although not spectacular.  I think you can do alot worse in this league than james sanders

I think he is pretty good against the run, but he is Roy Williams like in coverage. For all the flack Hobbs and some others took, Sanders left them hanging alot on plays where he was supposed to be the help man. I hope Chung looks great and can replace him at some point this season, though i doubt it.

As for the other safety, I think Meriweather has a monster year and takes the step from very good safety (which he quietly was last year) to stud, pro bowl safety. Heres a story by Tim Graham on Espn.com about him

http://espn.go.com/blog/afceast/post/_/id/2270/meriweather-an-all-around-force-for-patriots-2

He didn't become their starting strong safety until Week 8, yet he led the Patriots in interceptions and takeaways, made more tackles than Tedy Bruschi and Mike Vrabel and recorded as many sacks as Vince Wilfork and Ty Warren.

"I didn't know all that," Meriweather said with a beaming smile.

He was one of only four defensive backs last year with at least two interceptions, two sacks and two forced fumbles. The others were Adrian Wilson, Antoine Winfield and Quintin Mikell. Wilson and Winfield went to the Pro Bowl.

[Rondo2287]

I agree, I see Merriweather taking a huge step.  I also think wheatly and Wilhite will make some strides this year.  I think its going to be a system where at the start bill goes with his vets to start and then gradually the younger guys earn the playing time. 

Alot like Wdleehi's CB draft team

[Big_Matt34]

I agree, I see Merriweather taking a huge step.  I also think wheatly and Wilhite will make some strides this year. 

Im 100% with you on Wilhite, ever since he became a starter last year he looked great and it has continued into this preseason, he has the looks of a potential #1 corner. Wheatley on the other hand im less sure about, he has great speed but he seems to lack the quick instincts a CB needs. I think he can be an ok player, but id bet that Springs/Bodden/Wilhite/Butler will all be ahead of him on the depth chart. Him and Butler will both fight for that 4th CB position, id rather see Butler there since he seems to be the better cover cb so far, though thats more about Wheatley looking bad than Butler looking good.

I think their defense will be top 10 this year, closer to 10 than 5 though. But with this offense that will be more than good enough, they just need to tackle well and get to the QB and they will be fine.

[Rondo2287]

I dunno I havent been super impressed with what I have seen and heard about butler so far.  They say hes got all the physical tools to be a good NFL corner, but isnt ready yet.  I think Wheatly is ahead of butler but I agree with Bodden and Springs at this point in the season

[Jon]

I still think they're the class of the league.  Offensively they are about on par with what they were in 2007.  They might not be quite as good with the receivers (depending on how Galloway turns out), but the RB area could be an improvement. 

And while defensively I'm worried about the linebacking core, I do think the secondary is improved overall.  We may not have a guy like Asante Samuel two years ago, but I think from top to bottom the secondary has a chance to be significantly better than it was in 2007, when the team had numerous chances to stop Eli's absurd (in a bad way) final drive and literally let the game slip between their fingers.  Nearly every pass he made on that drive was atrocious and should've and would've been intercepted by most secondaries in this league. 

[Brickowski]

So far, I'm not impressed with this year's Patriots.  I think they are built like a warm weather team.  They'll score alot of points and win games in the regular season, but their lack of a short yardage running game, and below average run defense, will cost them in the playoffs and when the weather turns cold.

They need a fullback.  David Thomas is trying to learn the position with mixed results. Except for Green-Ellis, their running backs have been mediocre at best, and Green-Ellis has not gone up against anyone's first string. Fred Taylor has been hugely disappointing, and Sammy Morris has hardly played at all.  Is he hurt?

On defense, they are a good linebacker away from being able to play the 3-4 effectively.  They've gone to a 4-3, which has helped their pass rush (along with Burgess and the reacquisition of Banta-Cain) but it has hurt their quickness to the ball against the run. And Wilfork is so much better playing right on the center, where he controls two gaps and completely clogs the middle.

So I see 11-12 wins and a playoff spot, but I expect them to be bounced from the postseason by a team like Pittsburgh.