2009 Celticsblog Draft: Voting Analysis : Team of the Future

[Rondo2287]

Ya I agree, thats why I said I have no problem using this tiebreaker since we have already used it once so its good to keep it consistant, but I think the runoff has a great deal more value when deciding seeding than here, not sure what would be better for this situation though lol.

[Gainesville Celtic]

TPs to GC and Lucky, great 7 game series as we head into overtime.

But now I think you can see why I was arguing that a team should only allowed to be able to vote for themselves once. 

It's all good though.

same to you Kwhit10. As i said yesterday, I think ORL and PHI are teams 1 and 1a in the East.


That said I'm not sure I agree with the logic of the tiebreaker --- it assumes that having 2 GMs made getting here easier (i loved working with Lucky, and I think he me, but I'm not sure it gave us an advantage). But, if everyone votes the same way they did yesterday and no new votes come in, we lose.... in my mind that's just a diff. way of adding things up.

*That* said, i don't really know what a better tiebreaker would be at this stage. There's a part of me that would almost rather just have a coin flip, or have us argue why our teams would make a last second shot or something equally, but newly arbitrary.

But, it's all good.

Vote Orlando --- do it for the children!!

[Kwhit10]

TPs to GC and Lucky, great 7 game series as we head into overtime.

But now I think you can see why I was arguing that a team should only allowed to be able to vote for themselves once. 

It's all good though.

same to you Kwhit10. As i said yesterday, I think ORL and PHI are teams 1 and 1a in the East.


That said I'm not sure I agree with the logic of the tiebreaker --- it assumes that having 2 GMs made getting here easier (i loved working with Lucky, and I think he me, but I'm not sure it gave us an advantage). But, if everyone votes the same way they did yesterday and no new votes come in, we lose.... in my mind that's just a diff. way of adding things up.

*That* said, i don't really know what a better tiebreaker would be at this stage. There's a part of me that would almost rather just have a coin flip, or have us argue why our teams would make a last second shot or something equally, but newly arbitrary.

But, it's all good.

Vote Orlando --- do it for the children!!

Yea it's a sticky situation, you never know, some people might not vote today, or maybe some new voters will get drawn in. We'll have to wait and see.

[Edgar]

Congratualations to both of you in a great series

It was almost imposible to decide

Really

maybe my vote mid season could go the other way ealily
up to how great LeBrick plays again


p.s. dont forget to vote portland.

[Gainesville Celtic]

below is are argument for why Orlando wins the Eastern Conf. Semi-Finals vs. Philly that we posted yesterday, in case anyone missed it.

Look, everyone agrees this is a close matchup.

Not sure how much we're gonna be able to change anyone's mind. But keep in mind Lebron James is already the MVP and carried a crappy CLE team to the Finals. And he still just 24 years old.



We take nothing away from Melo and the Sixers, but please don't underestimate how dominant Lebron is.

24.

----------------
ORLANDO vs. PHILDELPHIA

Here's how we see this series matching up/playing out:

BACKCOURT
PHI - Baron Davis/Ronnie Brewer/Janero Pargo/Anthony Parker
ORL - Kirk Hinrich/Jason Richardson/Aaron Afflalo/Telfair

Baron Davis is probably the biggest X-factor in the series. We saw how he led the GSW to the upset of DAL. His biggest advantages vs. other PGs are quickness and his size. His size has also led to his body breaking down over long seasons --- which is why he's an X factor. Hinrich though is one of the better defensive PGs in the league and will make Davis work for every point(hopefully tiring Diddy downa bit). IIRC, Davis was running circles around a very young Devin Harris and Jason Terry in the DAL series. Hinrich is a tougher foe. Slight advantage PHI.

Don't forget that Jason Richardson was reason 1A why the Warriors upset the Mavericks. Richardson is careeer 19 ppg scorer and can score inside and out. I think folks are forgetting how dynamic an offensive weapon Richardson is b/c he's been in CHA and in a mess in PHO the last 2 years. Like Hinrich, Brewer is a very talented defender but still developing as a scorer. Parker helps make up for some of that scoring deficit, but he's 33 years old and will have a tough time vs. the younger, more athletic Afflalo. Slight (but larger) advantage ORL.

These backcourts are mirror images of each other --- a dynamic scorer paired with a strong defender.


SMALL FORWARD
PHI - Melo
ORL - Lebron

That each small forward is known by a single name says alot about this epic matchup. How you size this up is about percentages and probability.

Melo & Lebron light it up in this series. Bird vs. Nique, Pierce vs. Lebron. What sets them apart, IMO, is that there's a 60% chance that Melo shuts down Lebron for any significant stretch but a 80% chance Lebron, one of the leagues better defenders, can shut down Melo for a half or a game.

In an tight, even series like this those little advantages make all the difference. For example:

I disagree that Carmello will disappear in the playoffs, though.  Here's how he did against Kobe and the Lakers:  39 points, 31 points, 21 points, 15 points, 31 points, 25 points.

What's missing here is that while Melo finished with 21 points in the pivotal Game 3 (DEN had stolen homecourt and could really have put LA on it's heels), he was nearly non-existent in the 1st half and shot 30% for the Game. I remember watching that game thinking about half way through the 1st half "If DEN loses this game they lose the series.... If Melo could just show up for part of the 1st half... please god let the Lakers lose". Didn't happen. DEN made it a series but the momentum turned on that game.

Melo is a TREMENDOUS player, but he has shown (though with less frequency) the possibility of disappearing. And unlike Lebron he contributes less when his shot isn't going. Small edge ORL.


BIG MEN
PHI - Emeka Okafor/Andrew Bynum (backups: Joe Smith & Francisco Elson)
ORL - Charlier Villanueva/Marc Gasol (backups: Anderson Varejao, Jeff Foster, Darrell Arthur, Joel Anthony)

Villanueva is the best scorer of the bunch here, Okafor the strongest rebounder. Some of that rebounding is diminished with Villanueva playing away from the basket more than most PFs Okafor guards. 

Bynum has a slight advantage over Gasol (and may (or may not) have a higher ceiling but that matters not in a 7-game series). But they're remarkably similar players. Bynum is a slightly better defender, Gasol is  little tougher and more mobile (and less injury prone).

In the playoffs, the games slow down, and foul trouble becomes a much bigger issue -- especially with bigs helping out with Lebron and Melo going to the hoop. Frontcourt foul trouble will be a consistent issue throughout this series. This is where ORL has a HUGE advantage. If I were to rank the backup bigs:

1. Varejao - ORL
2. Foster - ORL
3. Smith - PHI
4. Arthur - ORL
5. Elson - PHI
5a. Anthony - ORL

Varejao is energy and defense and little scoring, he'll come in and give Bynum fits. Smith and Elson are 33 and 32 respectively, as is Jeff Foster. However Foster played as many minutes as Elson and Smith COMBINED last year. Smith has played 12,000 more minutes and nearly 300 more games than Foster and is clearly not the player he once was. He can't play 25 mpg throughout as series --- which we think he will have to.

Darrell Arthur can come in and score and defend and use his 6 fouls, when needed. And I would argue that Anthony (our 6th big) is as good as Francisco Elson at this point. There's not a way PHI can survive 2-3 games where either Bynum or Okafor are in foul trouble...an almost certainty in a tight series like this.

SCORING
We're not asking anyone to do anything they can't scoring wise --- these add up to 93 ppg. Given our great man defenders at the PG & SF spots, and defensive depth up front, we will have no problem holding a playoff opponent to 89-91 ppg.

Lebron - 25
Richardson - 18
Hinrich - 11
Villanueva - 9
Gasol - 10

Varejao - 8
Foster - 6
Telfair - 3
Afflalo - 3


SUMMARY
7 game series.  Maybe then goes to 8 OTs

Like i said, I have PHI as the #2 team in the East and would be a favorite to win it all if they get past ORL.

But the 3 factors --- not huge ones, but in a close series there are no huge factors --- that we think lead to an ORL victory are:

(1) a greater likelihood of Lebron shutting down Melo for one game (and/or Melo disappearing for a critical half) than the other way around. "Shutting down" here is a relative term ... something like Melo scoring 20 pts on 25 shots and being generally taken out of the flow of the game (like Game 3 in DEN vs. LA last year)

(2) frontline depth that allows ORL to absorb foul trouble/injuries that come with a tough series. ORL's frontline defenders can be more aggressive and will get more rest througout the game.

(3) ORL has homecourt advantage, game 7 is in Orlando.

[Roy Hobbs]

Breaking down the West:

Buffalo Braves (Rebus Rankin)- Dwight Howard, Ray Allen, Antawn Jamison, Al Thornton, Chris Duhon, Zaza Pachulia, Quentin Richardson, Sergio Rodriguez, Brian Skinner, James Jones

Portland Trailblazers (Edgar)- Shaquille O'Neal, Jermaine O'Neal, Rashard Lewis, Michael Redd, Mike Bibby, Manu Ginobili, Brad Miller, Delonte West, Ryan Gomes, Ronny Turiaf, Jrue Holiday, Quinton Ross, Jared Dudley, Fred Jones, Taj Gibson

Shaq vs. Howard:

As most Celtics fans should know by now, Dwight Howard is pretty overrated.  Great player, yes.  Dominant player who can single-handedly win a championship?  No. 

The key to stopping Howard is to have a player on your roster who can defend him one-on-one, so that his teammates don't get open looks at the basket.  Due to his size and strength, their aren't a lot of players large and strong enough to man-up Howard.  One of those players that can is Kendrick Perkins.  Another?  Shaquille O'Neal.

In seven career matchups, Shaq has played Howard to a standstill.  Link.  As you can see, Howard has never scored more than 21 points against Shaq, and he's never grabbed more than 13 boards.  Look at the recent matchups:

March 3, 2009:  Shaq -- 19 points and 11 rebounds, Howard - 21 points and 8 rebounds

November 24, 2007:  Shaq -- 20 points and 6 rebounds, Howard -- 17 points and 13 rebounds

March 18, 2007:  Shaq -- 20 points and 4 rebounds, Howard - 17 points and 8 rebounds

April 9, 2006:  Shaq -- 16 points and 9 rebounds, Howard -- 16 points and 8 rebounds

In other words, pretty darn even.  Shaq slightly outscores Howard, Howard generally outrebounds him.  Significantly, Shaq really limits Howard's rebounding ability.  If this matchup is even, it pretty much dooms Buffalo.

J.O. vs. Jamison:

I'd call this matchup pretty even.  Jamison is the slightly better scorer on a per-minute basis, O'Neal is the vastly better defender.  Head-to-head isn't the best way to look at this matchup necessarily, as the two guys haven't always matched up one-on-one. Still, in 20 career games, Jamison is scoring 16.4 points per game against O'Neal.  That's well below his career average.   O'Neal will force Jamison to strictly become a perimeter scorer, which really affects his efficiency and rebounding.  Last season, Jamison shot 64.3% inside, and only had an eFG% of .436 from outside (which was surprisingly low, with the number of three pointers he shoots).

Rashard vs. Al Thornton:

Another matchup where the guys haven't really matched up head-to-head before.  Thornton puts up okay numbers on a lottery team; Rashard puts up better numbers and hits clutch shots on a championship contender.  Lewis is a better scorer, shooter, and rebounder, and has a height advantage.  This one is a huge win for Edgar.

Michael Redd vs. Ray Allen:

We all love Ray Allen, nobody more than me.  Check out some of my comments in the forums.  That being said, as Jeff says on the front page, you never know "which Ray Allen will show up".  Will it be the super-clutch guy, or the guy who is shut down by Wally Sczerbiak?

Against Redd, it probably doesn't matter, as Redd has simply owned their individual matchup.  In their head-to-head battles, Redd has averaged 24.6 points, 3.2 assists, 45.8% shooting, and 39.1% 3PT shooting.  Ray's numbers have been terrible:  14.4 points, 2.2 assists, 39.3% FG%, and 36.0% from three.

Mike Bibby vs. Chris Duhon:

If Bibby is supposedly Edgar's weak link (which I disagree with), Duhon can't exploit that weakness.  Duhon, much like Bibby, is a perimeter scorer.  The problem for Buffalo is that Bibby is better at it.

The bench (aka, the mismatch):

Edgar kills Rebus here.  Look at the matchups: 

Manu Ginobili vs. James Jones  (a total and complete mismatch)
Brad Miller vs. Zaza Pachulia (Miller is significantly better)
Ryan Gomes vs. Quentin Richardson (Gomes scores more, and way more efficient)
Delonte West vs. Sergio Rodriguez (Delonte dominates here)

I don't see a matchup there that Edgar doesn't win, by literally miles.  This is a huge, huge advantage for Edgar.  Why?  Because starters can't play 48 minutes per game.  Let's say each of Buffalo's starters averages 40 minutes per game in the series (which is a lot).  That still leaves 8 minutes per game -- 17% of the total game time -- where a vastly inferior player is on the floor.  I really think the weak bench dooms Rebus here.

In the end, this is a relatively close series, but I really think Edgar takes it in 6 games.  Rebus has a good team, but he doesn't match up well with Edgar's squad. 

[Edgar]

Breaking down the West:

Buffalo Braves (Rebus Rankin)- Dwight Howard, Ray Allen, Antawn Jamison, Al Thornton, Chris Duhon, Zaza Pachulia, Quentin Richardson, Sergio Rodriguez, Brian Skinner, James Jones

Portland Trailblazers (Edgar)- Shaquille O'Neal, Jermaine O'Neal, Rashard Lewis, Michael Redd, Mike Bibby, Manu Ginobili, Brad Miller, Delonte West, Ryan Gomes, Ronny Turiaf, Jrue Holiday, Quinton Ross, Jared Dudley, Fred Jones, Taj Gibson

Shaq vs. Howard:

As most Celtics fans should know by now, Dwight Howard is pretty overrated.  Great player, yes.  Dominant player who can single-handedly win a championship?  No. 

The key to stopping Howard is to have a player on your roster who can defend him one-on-one, so that his teammates don't get open looks at the basket.  Due to his size and strength, their aren't a lot of players large and strong enough to man-up Howard.  One of those players that can is Kendrick Perkins.  Another?  Shaquille O'Neal.

In seven career matchups, Shaq has played Howard to a standstill.  Link.  As you can see, Howard has never scored more than 21 points against Shaq, and he's never grabbed more than 13 boards.  Look at the recent matchups:

March 3, 2009:  Shaq -- 19 points and 11 rebounds, Howard - 21 points and 8 rebounds

November 24, 2007:  Shaq -- 20 points and 6 rebounds, Howard -- 17 points and 13 rebounds

March 18, 2007:  Shaq -- 20 points and 4 rebounds, Howard - 17 points and 8 rebounds

April 9, 2006:  Shaq -- 16 points and 9 rebounds, Howard -- 16 points and 8 rebounds

In other words, pretty darn even.  Shaq slightly outscores Howard, Howard generally outrebounds him.  Significantly, Shaq really limits Howard's rebounding ability.  If this matchup is even, it pretty much dooms Buffalo.

J.O. vs. Jamison:

I'd call this matchup pretty even.  Jamison is the slightly better scorer on a per-minute basis, O'Neal is the vastly better defender.  Head-to-head isn't the best way to look at this matchup necessarily, as the two guys haven't always matched up one-on-one. Still, in 20 career games, Jamison is scoring 16.4 points per game against O'Neal.  That's well below his career average.   O'Neal will force Jamison to strictly become a perimeter scorer, which really affects his efficiency and rebounding.  Last season, Jamison shot 64.3% inside, and only had an eFG% of .436 from outside (which was surprisingly low, with the number of three pointers he shoots).

Rashard vs. Al Thornton:

Another matchup where the guys haven't really matched up head-to-head before.  Thornton puts up okay numbers on a lottery team; Rashard puts up better numbers and hits clutch shots on a championship contender.  Lewis is a better scorer, shooter, and rebounder, and has a height advantage.  This one is a huge win for Edgar.

Michael Redd vs. Ray Allen:

We all love Ray Allen, nobody more than me.  Check out some of my comments in the forums.  That being said, as Jeff says on the front page, you never know "which Ray Allen will show up".  Will it be the super-clutch guy, or the guy who is shut down by Wally Sczerbiak?

Against Redd, it probably doesn't matter, as Redd has simply owned their individual matchup.  In their head-to-head battles, Redd has averaged 24.6 points, 3.2 assists, 45.8% shooting, and 39.1% 3PT shooting.  Ray's numbers have been terrible:  14.4 points, 2.2 assists, 39.3% FG%, and 36.0% from three.

Mike Bibby vs. Chris Duhon:

If Bibby is supposedly Edgar's weak link (which I disagree with), Duhon can't exploit that weakness.  Duhon, much like Bibby, is a perimeter scorer.  The problem for Buffalo is that Bibby is better at it.

The bench (aka, the mismatch):

Edgar kills Rebus here.  Look at the matchups: 

Manu Ginobili vs. James Jones  (a total and complete mismatch)
Brad Miller vs. Zaza Pachulia (Miller is significantly better)
Ryan Gomes vs. Quentin Richardson (Gomes scores more, and way more efficient)
Delonte West vs. Sergio Rodriguez (Delonte dominates here)

I don't see a matchup there that Edgar doesn't win, by literally miles.  This is a huge, huge advantage for Edgar.  Why?  Because starters can't play 48 minutes per game.  Let's say each of Buffalo's starters averages 40 minutes per game in the series (which is a lot).  That still leaves 8 minutes per game -- 17% of the total game time -- where a vastly inferior player is on the floor.  I really think the weak bench dooms Rebus here.

In the end, this is a relatively close series, but I really think Edgar takes it in 6 games.  Rebus has a good team, but he doesn't match up well with Edgar's squad. 

Vote Portland...!!!  Champs win Championships

[Roy Hobbs]

Yeah, experience really plays a role there, too.

Seven championships, eleven trips to the Finals, and literally dozens of trips to the Conference Finals give Edgar a further edge.  Experience matters.  Ray Allen is a nice piece, but Portland has done it more.

[Gainesville Celtic]

Am I the only one who finds this a bit disingenuous?

Quote from: Roy Hobbs on Today at 10:35:52 am
Breaking down the West:

Portland Trailblazers (Edgar)- Shaquille O'Neal, Jermaine O'Neal, ...

All of the GMs in the CelticsBlog draft know that Roy & Edgar built the CrotorNats together. And most agree they did a great job. But as a result of some very real arguments/attacks Roy resigned as GM last week.

But here he is with a 3,700-word post on why "Edgars" team wins in 6?

I don't mind the post, but if you're going to remain active in the draft Roy, including posting why Portland wins, I'd prefer to just do it as Portland's co-GM, not as a supposed "interested observer". I mean Lucky technically resigned as co-GM before his now-completed trip to Germany. Does that mean his vote won't be tossed if we end in another tie today? No, because everyone still thinks of ORL as "our" team ---- which it very much is.

this is the first and last thing I'll say about this. I don't want to start a flame war or dredge stuff back up, but I also believe it trying to do things the right way....

[Roy Hobbs]

Am I the only one who finds this a bit disingenuous?

Quote from: Roy Hobbs on Today at 10:35:52 am
Breaking down the West:

Portland Trailblazers (Edgar)- Shaquille O'Neal, Jermaine O'Neal, ...

All of the GMs in the CelticsBlog draft know that Roy & Edgar built the CrotorNats together. And most agree they did a great job. But as a result of some very real arguments/attacks Roy resigned as GM last week.

But here he is with a 3,700-word post on why "Edgars" team wins in 6?

I don't mind the post, but if you're going to remain active in the draft Roy, including posting why Portland wins, I'd prefer to just do it as Portland's co-GM, not as a supposed "interested observer". I mean Lucky technically resigned as co-GM before his now-completed trip to Germany. Does that mean his vote won't be tossed if we end in another tie today? No, because everyone still thinks of ORL as "our" team ---- which it very much is.

this is the first and last thing I'll say about this. I don't want to start a flame war or dredge stuff back up, but I also believe it trying to do things the right way....

I'm an observer.  Of course I'm biased -- I helped build the team, and I love the way it's constructed.

If you notice, I also did similar breakdowns for Toronto vs. Chicago, Seattle vs. Buffalo, and a slightly lesser one for Philadelphia vs. Orlando.  I've commented on every series.  At the time, I said I'd continue to be active in the league, including voting, commenting, etc.

I'm not sure what the problem is.  Only one GM officially speaks for Portland.  I'm still going to support them, though.  If there was ever a tie-breaker (after a run-off), my vote should be disregarded, since I'm a former GM of the team.  However, to suggest I'm being disingenuous isn't really fair.

[Rondo2287]

NVM you got it

[Edgar]

Am I the only one who finds this a bit disingenuous?

Quote from: Roy Hobbs on Today at 10:35:52 am
Breaking down the West:

Portland Trailblazers (Edgar)- Shaquille O'Neal, Jermaine O'Neal, ...

All of the GMs in the CelticsBlog draft know that Roy & Edgar built the CrotorNats together. And most agree they did a great job. But as a result of some very real arguments/attacks Roy resigned as GM last week.

But here he is with a 3,700-word post on why "Edgars" team wins in 6?

I don't mind the post, but if you're going to remain active in the draft Roy, including posting why Portland wins, I'd prefer to just do it as Portland's co-GM, not as a supposed "interested observer". I mean Lucky technically resigned as co-GM before his now-completed trip to Germany. Does that mean his vote won't be tossed if we end in another tie today? No, because everyone still thinks of ORL as "our" team ---- which it very much is.

this is the first and last thing I'll say about this. I don't want to start a flame war or dredge stuff back up, but I also believe it trying to do things the right way....

I'm an observer.  Of course I'm biased -- I helped build the team, and I love the way it's constructed.

If you notice, I also did similar breakdowns for Toronto vs. Chicago, Seattle vs. Buffalo, and a slightly lesser one for Philadelphia vs. Orlando.  I've commented on every series.  At the time, I said I'd continue to be active in the league, including voting, commenting, etc.

I'm not sure what the problem is.  Only one GM officially speaks for Portland.  I'm still going to support them, though.  If there was ever a tie-breaker (after a run-off), my vote should be disregarded, since I'm a former GM of the team.  However, to suggest I'm being disingenuous isn't really fair.

And My english is not that good
Even if we are thinking the same
 

I can use a translator from time to time you know.


I still use my graphics
sadly i couldn vote Bron this series but we all still think he is the best in the game.
just in case

[Roy Hobbs]

If you notice, I also did similar breakdowns for Toronto vs. Chicago, Seattle vs. Buffalo, and a slightly lesser one for Philadelphia vs. Orlando.  I've commented on every series.  At the time, I said I'd continue to be active in the league, including voting, commenting, etc.

Buffalo vs. Seattle:  Link

Toronto vs. Chicago:  Link

I did my breakdown of Philly vs. Orlando over probably a half-dozen posts, as you know G.C.  If anybody was being a bit disingenuous, I don't think it was me.

[Gainesville Celtic]

If you notice, I also did similar breakdowns for Toronto vs. Chicago, Seattle vs. Buffalo, and a slightly lesser one for Philadelphia vs. Orlando.  I've commented on every series.  At the time, I said I'd continue to be active in the league, including voting, commenting, etc.

Buffalo vs. Seattle:  Link

Toronto vs. Chicago:  Link

I did my breakdown of Philly vs. Orlando over probably a half-dozen posts, as you know G.C.  If anybody was being a bit disingenuous, I don't think it was me.

Disingenous was too strong a word... sorry fellas. TPs for ya. (Note to self: don't use big words after 5 hrs of sleep)

Nothing in my orignal post were meant to take away from the job that you or Edgar have done (and certainly not critique of Edgar's english --- i would never do that --- and you know i love the scrolling text/photos).

like i said, i don't want to make a big deal, and the case is closed as a far as i'm concerned. Sorry for any undue consternation (reminder to self.... big words and all that  )

[Roy Hobbs]

It's all good, G.C.  The overall point I think that you were making -- that I'm closely aligned with Portland and my vote shouldn't count in any potential tie-breaker for Portland -- is one I agree with.