Dwight Howard
Antawn Jamison
Al Thornton
Ray Allen
Chris Duhon
Linas Kleiza Zaza Pachulia
Quentin Richardson
Sergio Rodriguez
Brian Skinner
VS.
Tim Duncan
Kenyon Martin
Thaddeus Young
Ben Gordon
TJ Ford
Brandon Bass
Jerryd Bayless
Dahntay Jones
Theo Ratliff
Corey Brewer
Antonio Daniels
Brent Barry
Patrick O'Bryant
Malik Rose
Opening outlook:
Buffalo has a very solid starting five. Howard is a physical specimen, listed at 6'11 and 265 pounds, but in my opinion has a somewhat limited post game. Now Howard scores points on offensive rebounds and putbacks by the dozens, but if you watched this years postseason, he lacks the polish to be a number one offensive option on a team. That's where Jamison and Ray Ray come into play. Jamison can score from the perimeter and off the dribble as well as in the paint, while Allen and Gordon had legendary duels in last year's first round, playing an almost impossible game of one-up. However, as good as both of those guys are offensively, they are defensive liabilities in my opinion. Allen is a 34 year old shooting guard who has performed well with the Celtics thanks to a team based system that allows him to be broken down off the dribble and recover to a wing shooter through the defensive rotation. This Braves team doesn't have players with the defensive acument that the Celtics have. Jamison has never been a part of a concerted defensive effort. As anyone who watches playoff basketball can attest to, the defense is generally what pulls out these series. I have complete confidence in the Sonics to get a stop if/when necessary, but looking at the Braves roster, I don't know if they can say the same, in their starting five or on their bench.
Chris Duhon is a solid if unspectacular point guard. Both Ford and Bayless are quicker then Duhon, and that matchup is one Seattle can try and exploit with those two players for turnovers. Duhon was 15th in the league last year in turnovers and 5th amongst point guards, and struggles with quicker guards like both Ford and Bayless. Defensively, again both Ford and Bayless are quicker then Duhon and specialize in getting to the paint. Also, Duhon at 6'1 isn't disrupting many shots. Seattle has the ability and the depth to exploit Duhon.
Ray Allen and Ben Gordon is a matchup that the world has seen before. Both of these guys can shoot, and neither can stop the other. They dueled back and forth, big shot for big shot, and can match each other offensively and defensively all day long. Not too too much to break down there.
Al Thornton and Thaddeus Young is a matchup of two young up and coming players in the real NBA. However, Young's game is far more polished then Thornton's, who is still incredibly inefficient for a small forward. Take David Thorpe's article at the end of this year about Thornton.
Al Thornton, Clippers
Thornton is averaging 16.8 points and 5.2 boards per game, which seem like solid numbers. However, he is playing 37 minutes a game and is only 30th among small forwards in player efficiency rating -- he's 39th in rebound rate, 47th in true shooting percentage and 59th in assist rate among small forwards.
Those rankings are bad, and for a starting small forward on a potential conference finals team they are atrocious. Thornton will not get the touches he needs to be that effective on a team offensively with Howard, Allen, and Jamison, making Thornton a big problem for the Braves. As a result, there will be times in this series where Thaddeus Young will see time on Antwan Jamison, mitigating his mismatches and advantages over traditional power forwards. This will make Young better on the offensive end, and leave Corey Brewer to defend Al Thornton, a matchup that is no problem for Seattle when Buffalo has the ball. When Seattle gets it back, then Young will exploit Jamison.
Jamison and Kenyon Martin will be going at each other, and while Jamison scored in 2008-09 against Denver, his average has been 22.67 against Martin since 2004. Between Martin and Young, I believe Seattle has the athleticism and toughness to stay with Jamison, as while Jamison is quick he is also soft. As Antwan Jamison is also only 6’8 and very undersized for a power forward, Corey Brewer will see extended time in this series while Young takes on Jamison.
Dwight Howard will shoot free throws in this series, that I can promise you. You will see an O’Bryant to foul Howard every once in awhile, and Howard’s total lack of touch at the line will be a major advantage for Seattle. He will get a couple putback buckets, but Howard is listed at 265 lbs, while Duncan is listed at 260. This is not a major strength mismatch, and while many have said it’s a Buffalo advantage think of how they get their points. Tim Duncan is the best fundamental big in the game. He can score in every conceivable way, and in this series get ready for Duncan bank shots from fairly midrange that he can hit with remarkable consistency. This will stretch Dwight away from the basket, where he is clearly out of his element. Duncan’s passing and court vision is also possibly second to none among bigs, and an open lane without Howard leaves Jamison or possibly Zaza Pachulia to defend the paint against my wing players. Thad Young likes that idea very much, as does the driving and dishing of Ford and Bayless. Howard has half of a jump hook and a good sense of rebounds. However, if Duncan can at least hold him to a stalemate on the glass (a realistic expectation for Tim Duncan), then Duncan holds a huge advantage because of the way that Duncan scores buckets and makes Howard almost negligible on the defensive end. Should Buffalo use someone else on Duncan, Timmy will have a field day because who else on that roster can defend Duncan?
I also like my bench very much in this matchup, as Sergio Rodriguez, Quentin “5 teams in one offseason” Richardson, and Brian Skinner aren’t going to make the impact of a Bayless, Bass, and Jones, while Ratliff, Brewer, and possibly O’Bryant (haha) making an impact on the series.
Buffalo has a good starting five, but unfortunately we match up very, very well for a quite realistic Seattle victory.