Overview:
I wanted to take a look at the true value of Glen “Big Baby” Davis (BBD) to the Celtics organization, and to better define how important he really is.
Fan Views:
Most fans on this site like BBD and want him back. I have even seen the extreme of “no BBD = Lakers dynasty” posted a few times. I for one have been on the opposite end of the general spectrum, and I know I’m not completely alone.
Improvements & Positives:
Without KG & Leon available, BBD stepped in and played major minutes during the regular season and playoffs. As a result he was able to showcase an improved jumpshot, and increase his production as a result of his increased minutes. BBD has shown hustle and the ability to play exteneded minutes without major drop-off. His footwork improved a bit, and so did his FG%. Many have taken such improvements and tried to extrapolate them out over his career, and thus determine his worth.
Limitations & Negatives:
When “payday” wasn’t on the horizon, BBD was known to have shown up without proper conditioning. If he were to receive a multi-year contract there is a legitimate concern that his conditioning will once again drop off. Unfortunately for BBD, he needs to be in very good shape to be effective. Also, at his height/weight/length he is better adapt to playing centers.
(Pic not coming in clear, but basically team is -35 with BBD at PF, and +128 with him at center).
But is a 6’6” center the future of the Celtics? He will have to dramatically improve his play at PF if wants to play that position fulltime. Is his body suited for the PF position as many of the league’s PFs are actually just tall SFs? All valid questions and concerns.
Statistical Analysis vs Gut Feelings:
We all remember the game winning shot in Orlando, as well as many other memorable BBD moments. Overall most fans are fearful that he won’t be available to come off the bench next year. But not everyone had the same “gut feelings” when watching him play. I, like some people I know, felt he was a defensive liability on rotations and not a good asset to have on the floor. However, all of these things are just how we felt from watching him play.
I would like though to take a look at some statistics that I feel have backed up what I have been seeing. Don’t worry, I won’t be selecting very random statistics to prove a point, but instead focus on the overall picture:
“ON Court” was when BBD was playing, and “OFF Court” was when he was on the bench. Some categories are redundant because they are a summation, but in only ONE category were the Celtics better off with BBD actually playing: Offensive Rebounds. This was off-set by the overall decrease in rebounds. Because BBD played significant minutes these numbers aren’t just flukes. The most egregious statistic, IMO, is the point differential. If the Celtics played a full 48 minute game w/o BBD then there would have been a 7.3 point swing in the opponents favor.
But, as we all know, BBD’s value is as an energy bench guy who is able to spread the floor and eat up minutes. But is he the best option? Many people’s guts say “yes”. Mine said “no”. But let’s take a look:
Below are the statistics of when BBD replaced either Garnett or Perkins:
Just like we determined above, BBD is a better replacement at Center (+28 points on that unit). However, despite playing alongside Pierce, Ray Allen, Rondo, and Perkins, the entire unit was outscored by the opposing team with BBD in there.
What happens if we replace BBD with another big? Scalabrine isn’t the best backup PF/C out there, but he is on the team, so let’s take a look at how “Scally” fits in:
Surprisingly, the Celtics are better off with Scalabrine as an equivalent backup in BOTH positions. His +/- is greater, which was accomplished in less minutes than BBD.
Direction of Celtics:
The Celtics want to win now. They want veteran players, with a mix of inexpensive but productive youth. The Celtics are avoiding burdensome contracts while giving themselves the flexibility to trade for or pickup off the FA market an impact player.
Conclusion:
The conclusion is whatever you want to write in response to my post.
Personally my conclusion is this: The Celtics have 2 great centers (Perkins with Wallace as a backup), and that is more than most any team can claim. Due to salary cap restrictions no team can be immune to injuries. But even so, I don’t think tying up more than $2mil a year on BBD to play 6 minutes a game (as a backup to Scalabrine) is the route to take. With Scally as the 4th big, I’d feel comfortable trying out a young guy to eat up minutes. Statistically, and likely by my gut feeling too, that young guy would provide more value than BBD. Again, I’ll take BBD for 2mil or less if there is no-one else, but I’m not convinced it is wise to tie up any future money on him. I hope he gets good money in Detroit and an opportunity to shine.
