Should Red Sox trade for Roy Halladay??

[ToppersBsktball10]

Buchholz it overrated I'd love to get Halladay for him,Penny,Masterson and maybe a few prospects.

Fixed, SOSH would love you. Buchholz isnt overrated right now because everyone rates him what he is, a guy who can be an ace in the majors but is inconsistant with his fastball command. He has a plus plus curveball, plus plus changeup, above average 4 seamer, and now has added a plus 2 seamer to his repetoire, if he was in the majors right now there is no doubt in my mind he'd be putting up better numbers than Penny.

Jays would have no interest in Penny as said earlier in this thread, if they deal Halladay itd mean they are giving up on this season so theyd have no use for an older pitcher who is a FA after this year. The only teams who would want Penny are ones who need another pitcher to put them over the top for a playoff push, most likely an NL team. I do think theyd like Masterson though, he needs to learn how to pitch to lefties though.

Yeah, the Jays have said they're practically giving up. But I mean I love Buchholz yet If he has so much potential you'd think he'd show a little something besides the no-hitter. I'd rather have Halladay than Buchholz. Plus Penny's been decent coming off shoulder surgery. I know he has a nice change up but he doesn't have a blow away fast ball to compliment it.

Who doesnt have a blow away fastball?  You cant be talking about Penny....right? over the last 30 days, his fb is the 5th fastest of all sp. (http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=4&season=2009&month=3)  (not that having a fast fastball makes you a good pitcher)

Again, people have short memories.  Buch has shown a ton (just not in 2008...when he was bad, lost his confidence, and was a mess).  Go back and look at what he did in 2007 (even without the no hitter).  Or go look at what he did in preseason this year.  or at AAA. 

No I meant Buchholtz doesn't. Penny's been pretty dominant these past few years. I think he's been great for us, especially coming off surgery.  I mean I'm just saying I don't see as much hype as everyone else. I think he can be a serviceable pitcher but I don't see the ace in him I guess.

[SSFan V]

Here's my Halladay trade:

Dice K (possibly some $) / Buchholz & Felix Doubront
for
Halladay

Why this works:

It gives the Jays two front line pitchers and a strong prospect for Doc.  Dice K would be a huge draw in Toronto given the huge % of population which is Asian and Buchholz is well one of the top pitching prospects in the game.  Doubront is a strong prospect as well.

Yes I know Dice K has a no - trade but I think he'd wave it for Toronto.  I also think the Sox wouldn't mind parting with him.

[yall hate]

No I meant Buchholtz doesn't. Penny's been pretty dominant these past few years. I think he's been great for us, especially coming off surgery.  I mean I'm just saying I don't see as much hype as everyone else. I think he can be a serviceable pitcher but I don't see the ace in him I guess.

ahh, gotcha.

I'll still disagree, since Buch can get it up to about 97, but he generally sits in the 91-94 range.  I guess thats the beauty of prospects, who knows what they will become.  we'll find out soon enough though.

Here's my Halladay trade:

Dice K (possibly some $) / Buchholz & Felix Doubront
for
Halladay

The Sox wont trade DiceK.  They paid the 50 mill posting fee, so he isnt getting traded.

And I shudder to actually type this, but Dice's deal is very team friendly.  he is only making like 8 million a year, and has the ability to be worth much more.  they wont trade him

[ma11l]

Here's my thinking on not taking Hallday; the guy has never pitched in the postseason in his life. 

A) We don't really know what he's like under the gun on the biggest of stages.  He might not have it mentally to win in the playoffs.

B) This one worries me more.  I think he'll be fine mentally, but maybe not physically.  He throws a ton of innings during the season and might wear out come October.  I think it might be similar to CC Sabathia in the playoffs.  I don't think he's a choke artist, I just think his arm is worn out.  They can monitor that next year if they sign him, but not as much getting him at the deadline this year.

[SSFan V]

Here's my thinking on not taking Hallday; the guy has never pitched in the postseason in his life. 

A) We don't really know what he's like under the gun on the biggest of stages.  He might not have it mentally to win in the playoffs.

B) This one worries me more.  I think he'll be fine mentally, but maybe not physically.  He throws a ton of innings during the season and might wear out come October.  I think it might be similar to CC Sabathia in the playoffs.  I don't think he's a choke artist, I just think his arm is worn out.  They can monitor that next year if they sign him, but not as much getting him at the deadline this year.

His 3 year stats from 06 - 08 say just the opposite.  In each of those three years, he's better post all-star break and has his best numbers in September. 

There's more than meets the eye with Buchholz starting on Friday.  Buchholz's start will be fodder for the entire week.

[nickagneta]

Buchholz' problems at the major league level stemmed from the fact that is fastball, while fast, is deadly straight. For those that remember Calvin Schiraldi, that was his problem as well. His stuff was great but to set it up he needed to throw a real fast fastball but those balls were straight as could be. Major leaguers feast on that stuff.

The other problem, as stated, was in his mind. He was horribly immature and that immaturity lead to confidence problems and problems with accepting coaching when things started to go not so great. Reports are that the kid has really grown up mentally over the last year or so so maybe he comes back to the majors strong.

What I don't like about him is his lack of endurance during the season. He's been needed to be shut down the last two seasons in a row with a dead arm after only about 140-150 innings. He's got a slight frame and if he's showing trouble like this now, his candle could ultimately burn out fast.

For those reasons(straight fastball, early shutdowns, slight frame) I would trade him with a package for Halladay as a Halladay, Lester, Beckett, Wake starting rotation with our bullpen and offense is almost a guarantee of two World Series in a row.

[Big_Matt34]

Buchholz' problems at the major league level stemmed from the fact that is fastball, while fast, is deadly straight. For those that remember Calvin Schiraldi, that was his problem as well. His stuff was great but to set it up he needed to throw a real fast fastball but those balls were straight as could be. Major leaguers feast on that stuff.

His 4 seamer is straight as an arrow, because of that they messed with his delivery to get more movement on it. Well it worked, his fastball had much more movement but he lost his curve and change, so coming into this year his delivery is like it used to be and instead of having the one fastball he developed a 2 seamer. From everything ive read on his games this year, his 2 seamer has become a plus pitch and is better than his 4 seamer. Its about 92-93 but has very good movement and gets him alot of groundballs now. That will be key for him because he was pretty flyball prone and thats not a good thing in Fenway, im really looking forward to seeing him Friday.

He definately was immature, and had serious confidence problems but like you said he has supposedly matured. I too would easily give him up in a deal for Halladay but its more about what the Jays will likely ask for ontop of Clay that makes me think it wont happen. If i deal did happen i wouldnt mind taking back Rolen or Overbays deal, but i want NOTHING to do with Vernon Wells. I didnt realize how bad his contract is but its easily the worst in baseball.

[BudweiserCeltic]

Holding on to Buchholz would be a mistake. If you can include him to get an elite pitcher, you simply do it.

This reminds me of when the Red Sox were reluctant to trade Casey Fossum.

[nickagneta]

Buchholz' problems at the major league level stemmed from the fact that is fastball, while fast, is deadly straight. For those that remember Calvin Schiraldi, that was his problem as well. His stuff was great but to set it up he needed to throw a real fast fastball but those balls were straight as could be. Major leaguers feast on that stuff.

Hos 4 seamer is very straight, because of that they messed with his delivery to get more movement on it. Well it worked, his fastball had much more movement but he lost his curve and change, so coming into this year his delivery is like it used to be and instead of having the one fastball he developed a 2 seamer. From everything ive read on his games this year, his 2 seamer has become a plus pitch and is better than his 4 seamer. Its about 92-93 but has very good movement and gets him alot of groundballs now.

He definately was immature, and had serious confidence problems but like you said he has supposedly matured. I too would give him up in a deal for Halladay but its more about what the Jays will likely ask for ontop of Clay that makes me think it wont happen.

If they want Lars Anderson too, that's probably a deal breaker. Theo really thinks this kid is going to fill out and put a lot of muscle on him and with that pretty swing has him pegged as their power hitter of the future.

Problem is the Sox strength in the minors is in their pitching and they have almost no power prospects through the system. Most of their positional prospects are in the mold of Ellsbury. They are good fielders, fast, good contact guys and some have great arms. But there's little to no power and I don't see the Sox doing this if they are giving up Anderson.

[yall hate]

There's more than meets the eye with Buchholz starting on Friday.  Buchholz's start will be fodder for the entire week.

It actually doesnt make sense that they would have him start against the Jays if they were trying to use him in a deal with the jays.

I almost see it as too big of a risk, if he goes out and doesnt perform well, the Jays say nope.  Part of the allure of prospects is trying to project them and see what they could be.  if he has a clunker, you hurt your position.  Obviously if he goes out and no hits them, well then his stock rises, but it is an unnecessary risk to take.

[yall hate]

Holding on to Buchholz would be a mistake. If you can include him to get an elite pitcher, you simply do it.

This reminds me of when the Red Sox were reluctant to trade Casey Fossum.

I dont think anyone is saying not to move him, it is what else you move in addition to him. 

again, think back to the santana rumors.  it was Lester, masterson (or bowden), coco, and Lowrie.

I dont think there is a red sox fan in the world that would be ok with that deal now. 

[BudweiserCeltic]

Holding on to Buchholz would be a mistake. If you can include him to get an elite pitcher, you simply do it.

This reminds me of when the Red Sox were reluctant to trade Casey Fossum.

I dont think anyone is saying not to move him, it is what else you move in addition to him. 

again, think back to the santana rumors.  it was Lester, masterson (or bowden), coco, and Lowrie.

I dont think there is a red sox fan in the world that would be ok with that deal now. 

That was one of them... and most (don't remember what my position was myself) were reluctant with Lester, but there were other options centered around Buchholz and other prospects... some that included Ellsbury, others that didn't.

[Big_Matt34]

If they want Lars Anderson too, that's probably a deal breaker. Theo really thinks this kid is going to fill out and put a lot of muscle on him and with that pretty swing has him pegged as their power hitter of the future.

Problem is the Sox strength in the minors is in their pitching and they have almost no power prospects through the system. Most of their positional prospects are in the mold of Ellsbury. They are good fielders, fast, good contact guys and some have great arms. But there's little to no power and I don't see the Sox doing this if they are giving up Anderson.

Theres no way they give up both Clay and Lars in a package, Lars numbers this year arent great but its mainly because of a huge slump in May, he is up to .265 now and seems to be striking out less which he needed to do. They do have another very good 1b prospect, Anthony Rizzo. 19 years old, was hitting .373 in 21 games last year in Low A before being diagnosed with the same cancer Lester had. This year he is back and like Lester in 2007 clearly isnt close to 100%, yet he still hit .298 with 9 homers/42 RBI's and a .859 OPS in 64 games before being promoted to High A Salem a few weeks ago.

As great as their farm system is it really is lacking power hitting, with the exception of Lars and Rizzo their only other power hitter throughout the farm is REdick, though Aaron Bates has some power. I do like that Redick plays CF mostly now, a centerfielder who has a great arm and hits for power is a nice thing.

If they were to give up Buch in a deal for Halladay id really hope they refuse to throw Lars, Casey Kelly, Rizzo and Ryan Westmoreland ontop of him. They have plenty of other good prospects to give up that the Blue Jays would gladly take like Bowden, Hagadone, Masterson, Pimantel, Redick, Lin, Navarro. Thats the reason id trade for Halladay because they could trade 3 of their top 10 prospects and still have a great farm system, of course it all depends which of those prospects they would deal.

[yall hate]

Holding on to Buchholz would be a mistake. If you can include him to get an elite pitcher, you simply do it.

This reminds me of when the Red Sox were reluctant to trade Casey Fossum.

I dont think anyone is saying not to move him, it is what else you move in addition to him. 

again, think back to the santana rumors.  it was Lester, masterson (or bowden), coco, and Lowrie.

I dont think there is a red sox fan in the world that would be ok with that deal now. 

That was one of them... and most (don't remember what my position was myself) were reluctant with Lester, but there were other options centered around Buchholz and other prospects... some that included Ellsbury, others that didn't.

If I remember correctly, most of the people were more in favor of the lester deal (he had been coming back from the cancer...) Jacoby was the golden child, etc...
this is the link I found with a quick look (but I remember the majority of people being more in favor of moving lester, but who knows)
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2007/11/red-sox-leading.html

Whatever the case, I dont think the Sox seriously consider trading for Halladay, as it goes against everything they do (which of course means, they trade for him next week).  I just dont see them putting together a package of 4 kids who can play in the major leagues at high levels for very low costs for an aging pitcher (however good he is). 

[Big_Matt34]

Been a few days since anything new, but this is from 7:30 tonight.

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20090716&content_id=5894188&vkey=news_mlb&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb

"Word is the Red Sox and the Phillies are likely to be the leading candidates for Halladay."
T.R. Sullivan / MLB.com

Its just a small part in an article about the Rangers jumping in on the Halladay race. I still dont think the Sox go all out for him, but Sullivan is well known for having reliable sources and is very respected. I hope Roy gets dealt soon because i cant stand constant rumors and trying to keep up.