When do available minutes become a detriment to free agent signings?

[LooseCannon]

I know this may be shocking to some, but basketball players may have professional pride.  Just winning a ring isn't always enough; not everyone can be Brian Scalabrine.  A player might prefer starting on an average team to being a role player off the bench on a championship contender, not just because of the money but because he believes in himself and his abilities and wants a chance to prove himself.

When I look at the Celtics roster, I see (ideally) about 15 minutes per game available to back up each position.  James Posey, who was playing for his next contract, was willing to come in because he could soak up minutes at three positions and get 25 mpg to show off.  A guy like Rashard Wallace can take the bulk of the back-up minutes at both big men spots in a three-man rotation with KG and Perkins.

Eddie House is going to get 15-20 minutes per game.  The question is where.  If he plays as the point guard, then you can offer a talented swingman a chance to take the LLE for a year with 20+ mpg to win a bigger contract.  Then you would have an 8-man rotation with guys like Scalabrine, Allen, and Walker filling in some of the holes.  But House has some deficiencies as a ball-handler.  If House is the shooting guard, where he is more of a defensive liability, then you have to find two players, since there probably aren't very many point guard/small forward players out there and anyone good who has that range of ability should command a bigger contract than Boston can offer.  Since you're offering less playing time, you aren't going to attract players as good as if you could offer a swingman role.

The pool of players should theoretically tighten up if you are offering a role that will lead to 10-15 minutes because of professional pride.  For the same amount of money, I suspect that any potential bench player that excites this message board would prefer to sign with another contender where they have a shot at 20+ points per game.  It hurts even more that, playing behind the best starting five in the NBA, no free agent has a reasonable chance of playing his way into the starting lineup.  Who wants to work in a dead-end job with no opportunity for advancement?  That's why I expect Big Baby to bolt if any decent team offers him a chance to be a starter.

So it seems to me that we shouldn't be shocked if the Celtics don't land another big free agent because there's not that much they have to offer except a shot at a ring, and there are probably teams out there that can also offer a decent chance at glory plus more money and/or playing time.  If the Celtics could offer more playing time, if it seemed they were willing to take minutes away from Eddie House to appeal to the pride of a swingman or combo guard, that would help.  Stephon Marbury would probably be more willing to play for the vet minimum if he could be guaranteed 20-25 minutes per game and a chance to show that he might deserve one last decent contract when teams that strike out on the big free agents of 2010 are willing to gamble.

When it's all over, assuming the Grant Hill thing doesn't work out and that there aren't any veterans on their last legs and last contract willing to take a 10-15 mpg role and unable to do more than that, I think the Celtics will be paying the minimum salary for career backups on the talent level of guys like Kevin Ollie at point guard and Stephen Graham at small forward while hoping that someone out of Pruitt/Hudson/Giddens/Walker pans out or that they can find a mercenary who is bought out of his contract mid-season.  This is what I expect, so anything better than that is spectacular and anything less than that low bar is failure on the part of Danny Ainge.  I would prefer Ainge going with established mediocrity with no large upside who will be played over high-risk, high-reward projects. (I suppose he can have one with Swift).  I'd like players who are Scal-like in their acceptance of bench status with no aspirations toward starting.

I don't think that is necessarily a bad thing, as this past season showed that the Celtics are a strong championship contender even with a weak bench so long as the starting five are healthy.

[Brendan]

The way I see it you have Rondo playing 35-40, Perk 25-30, and the big 3 at 30-35.

Now a lot of that depends on the quality of the bench option - if a wing can give Pierce or Allen a breather without a drop off in quality of play, Doc is much more likely to play that guy, than he has been to play a Tony Allen. Since you're worried about minutes let's use my high side and project out.

House would play 8 MPG at PG and another few at SG, call it 12 total. That would leave 22 MPG for a wing playing behind Pierce and Allen. That in turn leaves 31 MPG behind Perk and KG. Becuase there will inevitabily by gaps in the big man rotation, you either get some small ball, or you'll see a fourth big man getting minutes, let's say 2 go to a wing and 6 go to the fourth big man.

So you'd have:

Perk 30
KG 35
Pierce 35
Allen 35
Rondo 40

Sheed 23
Scal 6
Wing 24
House 12

I could easily see all of the starters averaging 2 minutes less, so that's an extra 10 minutes to those four bench guys. There is an opening for one other bench guys to come in and get some serious PT, but they'd have to be good enough to displace some of the starter minutes and House or Scal.

Perk 28
KG 30
Pierce 30
Allen 30
Rondo 35

Sheed 25
Powe 13
Hill 25
House 6
Marbury 20

But generally I agree with the OP - we're one Grant Hill signing away from having little to offer in minutes except for someone talented enough to displace the entrenched guy (Scal or House) AND take minutes away from the starters.

[toinewalka]

I agree with you to an extent, but this is something that Danny talks about with each and every FA.  They talk about money, playing time, and winning.  Then things like the city, and other factors come in if you're satisfied with the rest.  I think we're going to get big minutes out of Rasheed backing up the 4/5, and hopefully Powe (or another cheap forward of that calibur) will fill in the rest of those minutes effectively.

If Hill signs (let's not write this off yet), or a player like Hill, I think we can offer him around 20 minutes a game backing up the 2/3.  House is going to get his 15 minutes (more on nights he's making shots, less on nights he's not, just like all of the last two seasons) backing up both the 1/2.

I think the real odd man out becomes the backup PG.  This is why the Celtics have been targeting guys like Ty Lue.  Someone who doesn't have a tone of options, that wants to get that 8-12 minutes a game to try his butt off and be able to play for a ring.  I agree the big names (Hill and Sheed) want minutes, but there aren't many teams that are going to offer guys like Lue more minutes for simliar money, even if their teams are worse.  They are developing young guys, which is as important to them as winning.   Would you rather get 8-12 a game behind Mayo in Memphis, or 8-12 a game behind Rondo in Boston?

[PosImpos]

It's true that we don't have many minutes to offer a guy at PG, SG, or the big positions, since we already have two solid bench guys in those areas (Rasheed, House).  But we can still offer 15-20 minutes a game (possibly a bit more) to somebody who can play SG / SF and maybe a few minutes of PF here and there.  A guy like Hill, in other words.

[Gainesville Celtic]

The flipside to players having professional pride is that to get to the NBA they also have to have a certain amount of ego.

If I'm Dahntay Jones or Keith Bogans (a guy I'd LOVE for us to sign at the vet. min, BTW) wouldn't you look at Giddens, Walker, T. Allen and maybe even House and say "I'm better than those guys!"? "I'm KEITH BOGANS! I played at U of Kentucky!"

Plus any smart player should be able to see what happened to KG last season and think that Allen or Pierce could just as easily miss games.

finally, they should also recognize (or have agents that point out to them) that if they're gonna have to "settle" for the vet minimum, guys like Shannon Brown, Boobie Gibson, James Posey, Tyronn Lue, Derek Fisher, etc, etc. have all parlayed good bench performances in the Finals into contracts larger than they would have gotten toiling away in Milwaukee or Sacramento...

[wdleehi]

Not to mention Ego.  Most NBA players probably believe they can go to any NBA team and earn 15-20 minutes, easy.

[Michael Anthony]

That is why Hill makes so much sense - he can be the primary ball handler with Eddie in the game.

[LooseCannon]

The way I see it you have Rondo playing 35-40, Perk 25-30, and the big 3 at 30-35.

I think that's a bit optimistic for Rondo to think he might hit 40mpg unless the backup options for Doc Rivers are very poor.  He had 33 last season.  I think a more realistic goal is Rondo/Pierce/Allen in the 34-36 range, with Perk and Garnett around 30.

House would play 8 MPG at PG and another few at SG, call it 12 total. That would leave 22 MPG for a wing playing behind Pierce and Allen.

He's been getting 18-19 the past two seasons.  I can't see that dipping all the way down to 12.