Lakers look likely to lose someone

[colincb]

http://www.nba.com/2009/news/features/dave_mcmenamin/06/16/exit.interviews/index.html

"The Lakers already have approximately $74 million already committed to eight players next season. That figure does not include Ariza, Odom and Brown, three key members of L.A.'s rotation, who are all free agents come June 30.

The luxury tax threshold is estimated to be in the $70 million range for next season, so L.A. will be penalized even if it fills the required 13-man roster out by signing five players for the league minimum.

Ariza and Odom will fetch much more than the minimum. One Western Conference executive said both players will warrant the mid-level exception at least, set to be in the neighborhood of $6 million next year.

Just signing one of the two players at that price, plus four more players to round out the roster, would put L.A.'s salary figure around $85 million next season. That figure would jump to $100 million if you account for the $15 million in luxury tax L.A. would have to pay."


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I doubt LA is going anywhere near $100 million. The more I look at the economy and this offseason, the more I think there will be free agents settling for a lot less than they thought they would. In this case, I have to think Ariza moves on (and BBD stays for Gomes-like money)

[Moranis]

supposedly all those extra home games during the playoffs netted the Lakers 40+ million.  I don't see why they wouldn't bring Odom and Ariza back. 

[Jeff]

I expect they'll find a way to keep Ariza but not Odom

Odom would disappear for long stretches at a time anyway, so who could tell the difference?

[Fafnir]

supposedly all those extra home games during the playoffs netted the Lakers 40+ million.  I don't see why they wouldn't bring Odom and Ariza back. 

People said the same thing about Boston and signing talent, though.

[Fafnir]

I expect they'll find a way to keep Ariza but not Odom

Odom would disappear for long stretches at a time anyway, so who could tell the difference?

Over the season not having Odom would result in them winning probably 5 less games. Without him this year they certainly don't win the title. They have to keep Odom. Ariza is more replaceable, even being as young as he is.

[Moranis]

supposedly all those extra home games during the playoffs netted the Lakers 40+ million.  I don't see why they wouldn't bring Odom and Ariza back. 

People said the same thing about Boston and signing talent, though.

We only had one free agent and we offered him the same amount of money per year, but with less years than the team he signed with.  And he was essentially a role player.  A good role player, but a role player nonetheless.  Odom and Ariza are not role players.  The Lakers will re-sign them. 

[Fafnir]

supposedly all those extra home games during the playoffs netted the Lakers 40+ million.  I don't see why they wouldn't bring Odom and Ariza back. 

People said the same thing about Boston and signing talent, though.

We only had one free agent and we offered him the same amount of money per year, but with less years than the team he signed with.  And he was essentially a role player.  A good role player, but a role player nonetheless.  Odom and Ariza are not role players.  The Lakers will re-sign them. 

They should re-sign both of them for basketball reasons. But assuming Kobe opts out and signs his extension I think they'll make some minor moves to clear salary. Otherwise I think they'll let one of the two go.

It'd be one thing if they were stuck near $100 million payroll for one year. But depending on Ariza's/Odom's demands they could be looking at $100 million for nearly 5 years straight. I doubt they want that kind of salary.

[CelticWes34]

I expect they'll find a way to keep Ariza but not Odom

Odom would disappear for long stretches at a time anyway, so who could tell the difference?

Over the season not having Odom would result in them winning probably 5 less games. Without him this year they certainly don't win the title. They have to keep Odom. Ariza is more replaceable, even being as young as he is.

I also agree that if you have to choose between the two you have to go with Odom. Without him, they do not win the title. Also, I am still not buying the Bynum hype. I think that kid is worthless, so I would much rather have a big such as Odom that can at least play various positions on the frontline with Pau playing some Center when needed.

Ariza, while a good player, is more replaceable IMO. In fact, I hope the Lakers only sign Odom so that Danny could offer Ariza the MLE offer so that he could back up Pierce. We all saw how he played against his old team in the Magic!!

[Evantime34]

I think they keep Ariza and get rid of Odom, because Odom ends up getting an absurd offer from somewhere. Other teams will pay him based on his playoffs, the Lakers will want to pay him based on the body of his work which is worth a lot less.

[bobdelt]

There aren't many teams with Cap Space - Maybe they do a sign and trade but I think the Lakers somehow keep both of them, and when they don't win next year - they'll make a lot of cost saving moves.

[Moranis]

supposedly all those extra home games during the playoffs netted the Lakers 40+ million.  I don't see why they wouldn't bring Odom and Ariza back. 

People said the same thing about Boston and signing talent, though.

We only had one free agent and we offered him the same amount of money per year, but with less years than the team he signed with.  And he was essentially a role player.  A good role player, but a role player nonetheless.  Odom and Ariza are not role players.  The Lakers will re-sign them. 

They should re-sign both of them for basketball reasons. But assuming Kobe opts out and signs his extension I think they'll make some minor moves to clear salary. Otherwise I think they'll let one of the two go.

It'd be one thing if they were stuck near $100 million payroll for one year. But depending on Ariza's/Odom's demands they could be looking at $100 million for nearly 5 years straight. I doubt they want that kind of salary.

The Lakers have had a very high payroll for a long time.  It is not abnormal. 

[amenhotep04]

I completely disagree on Ariza.  He makes a world of difference on their team defense.  They lose Ariza and their defense takes a huge step backwards.

Odom is important as well.  Given that the Laker bench disappeared late in the season, losing one or both of these players will hurt the Lakers chances of making it to the Finals three years in a row. 

[wdleehi]

Odom is their 2nd best big man. 


If they let him go with the thought that Bynum is ready and able to stay healthy, then they are short changing their chances to repeat.

Ariza is a nice player, but he is about to be overpayed. 

[Jeff]

I hope they both go elsewhere and the Lakers can't find anyone good to replace them.  But I still think Ariza is more important to them.

[wdleehi]

I hope they both go elsewhere and the Lakers can't find anyone good to replace them.  But I still think Ariza is more important to them.

I hope they overpay them both and end up with the lazy Odom and the non-overachieving Ariza. 

Not to mention the overhyped Bynum.