The most likely scenario

[nickagneta]

So what is the Celtics most likely off season scenario? Is it

A.) Trading Ray
B.) Trading Rondo
C.) Trading Scal and Tony
D.) Signing old guys(Hill, McDyess, Wallace, Smith)
E.) None of the above

Honestly, considering all of the trade rumors being thrown around for Ray, the #2 pick, and Willie Greene I think after watching Doc on PTI yesterday and listening carefully to Wyc over the last couple of weeks, I think the answer is E.). I don't foresee any real change in this team next year. This team as constituted plus James Posey won it all a year ago. This year get rid of the injuries and they are probably up 3-1 over the Lakers given the putrid defense LA has played in the Finals. Why should they change things?

Sure, there are a lot of fans out there that think things must change in order to compete in the future. But what if they don't want to? What if after making the trades for Ray and KG the ownership sat down with Danny Ainge and said "You have a three year window. Maximize it, but after that we need to scale that salary down." Is that possible? Maybe. Maybe not. It is a business first and foremost and my guess is there are going to be only so many years where this ownership group can afford to pay $80+ million in salary and luxury taxes.

So what is the best way to maximize it? Probably to just leave things alone and do what Doc Rivers said. Add some length and get people healthy because, as he put it "They really like their team".

Rondo, Ray, Paul, KG, and Perk all back and healthy and with a year more experience playing and growing together are going to be a tough starting five to beat. Add Leon with a small two year contract to House(who should opt to pick up his option), Tony, Scal, Walker, Giddens, Pruitt, and probably Baby and you have the core of a team that could, for the third year in a row win 25-27 out of their first 30 games.

Now add some length, like maybe Zaza Pachulia. Add some veteran wing help, like Grant Hill or Matt Barnes or Dahntay Jones or Quinton Ross. And add a back up PG, like Flip Murray. Doesn't this seem like the most likely scenario?

Zaza is a defensive minded, hard nosed, 25 year old C-PF that can play either big position and is probably worth a decent part of the MLE for some years. Unlike some of the older guys who's games have seen some major decline recently, Zaza can guard centers and would be worth an investment until the end of the KG era.

Any of the wings guys I mentioned would be great. I don't see Hill or Barnes coming north as both have been professed warm weather guys. But the options have to be explored. Personally I like Jones and Ross and think both would come cheap, like say LLE or less.

I think Flip Murray is a great back up PG for Rondo. He can shoot. He has a good handle. And he isn't the absolute worse defender I have ever seen. He, unlike Eddie, is a small guy that can shoot and play the point and run an offense and bring up the ball against pressure. Given Rondo's probable expanded role this upcoming year, we will probably only need 10 MPG out of the back PG, so Murray, I think, would be a great cheap option.

Will any of this be flashy? NO. Will any of this be fun to talk about? Probably not as much fun as a big trade. But, will this probably have the Celtics still playing at this time next year. Probably....unless of course they have already swept the Lakers!!!

[droopdog7]

Option D by a long shot.  And I would be happy with it.

[Roy Hobbs]

Option D is most likely.  I'd like to see a combination of C & D.

[BballTim]

So what is the Celtics most likely off season scenario? Is it

A.) Trading Ray
B.) Trading Rondo
C.) Trading Scal and Tony
D.) Signing old guys(Hill, McDyess, Wallace, Smith)
E.) None of the above

Honestly, considering all of the trade rumors being thrown around for Ray, the #2 pick, and Willie Greene I think after watching Doc on PTI yesterday and listening carefully to Wyc over the last couple of weeks, I think the answer is E.). I don't foresee any real change in this team next year. This team as constituted plus James Posey won it all a year ago. This year get rid of the injuries and they are probably up 3-1 over the Lakers given the putrid defense LA has played in the Finals. Why should they change things?

Sure, there are a lot of fans out there that think things must change in order to compete in the future. But what if they don't want to? What if after making the trades for Ray and KG the ownership sat down with Danny Ainge and said "You have a three year window. Maximize it, but after that we need to scale that salary down." Is that possible? Maybe. Maybe not. It is a business first and foremost and my guess is there are going to be only so many years where this ownership group can afford to pay $80+ million in salary and luxury taxes.

So what is the best way to maximize it? Probably to just leave things alone and do what Doc Rivers said. Add some length and get people healthy because, as he put it "They really like their team".

Rondo, Ray, Paul, KG, and Perk all back and healthy and with a year more experience playing and growing together are going to be a tough starting five to beat. Add Leon with a small two year contract to House(who should opt to pick up his option), Tony, Scal, Walker, Giddens, Pruitt, and probably Baby and you have the core of a team that could, for the third year in a row win 25-27 out of their first 30 games.

Now add some length, like maybe Zaza Pachulia. Add some veteran wing help, like Grant Hill or Matt Barnes or Dahntay Jones or Quinton Ross. And add a back up PG, like Flip Murray. Doesn't this seem like the most likely scenario?

Zaza is a defensive minded, hard nosed, 25 year old C-PF that can play either big position and is probably worth a decent part of the MLE for some years. Unlike some of the older guys who's games have seen some major decline recently, Zaza can guard centers and would be worth an investment until the end of the KG era.

Any of the wings guys I mentioned would be great. I don't see Hill or Barnes coming north as both have been professed warm weather guys. But the options have to be explored. Personally I like Jones and Ross and think both would come cheap, like say LLE or less.

I think Flip Murray is a great back up PG for Rondo. He can shoot. He has a good handle. And he isn't the absolute worse defender I have ever seen. He, unlike Eddie, is a small guy that can shoot and play the point and run an offense and bring up the ball against pressure. Given Rondo's probable expanded role this upcoming year, we will probably only need 10 MPG out of the back PG, so Murray, I think, would be a great cheap option.

Will any of this be flashy? NO. Will any of this be fun to talk about? Probably not as much fun as a big trade. But, will this probably have the Celtics still playing at this time next year. Probably....unless of course they have already swept the Lakers!!!

  Not sure I exactly followed that. Is your answer D or E?

[nickagneta]

So what is the Celtics most likely off season scenario? Is it

A.) Trading Ray
B.) Trading Rondo
C.) Trading Scal and Tony
D.) Signing old guys(Hill, McDyess, Wallace, Smith)
E.) None of the above

Honestly, considering all of the trade rumors being thrown around for Ray, the #2 pick, and Willie Greene I think after watching Doc on PTI yesterday and listening carefully to Wyc over the last couple of weeks, I think the answer is E.). I don't foresee any real change in this team next year. This team as constituted plus James Posey won it all a year ago. This year get rid of the injuries and they are probably up 3-1 over the Lakers given the putrid defense LA has played in the Finals. Why should they change things?

Sure, there are a lot of fans out there that think things must change in order to compete in the future. But what if they don't want to? What if after making the trades for Ray and KG the ownership sat down with Danny Ainge and said "You have a three year window. Maximize it, but after that we need to scale that salary down." Is that possible? Maybe. Maybe not. It is a business first and foremost and my guess is there are going to be only so many years where this ownership group can afford to pay $80+ million in salary and luxury taxes.

So what is the best way to maximize it? Probably to just leave things alone and do what Doc Rivers said. Add some length and get people healthy because, as he put it "They really like their team".

Rondo, Ray, Paul, KG, and Perk all back and healthy and with a year more experience playing and growing together are going to be a tough starting five to beat. Add Leon with a small two year contract to House(who should opt to pick up his option), Tony, Scal, Walker, Giddens, Pruitt, and probably Baby and you have the core of a team that could, for the third year in a row win 25-27 out of their first 30 games.

Now add some length, like maybe Zaza Pachulia. Add some veteran wing help, like Grant Hill or Matt Barnes or Dahntay Jones or Quinton Ross. And add a back up PG, like Flip Murray. Doesn't this seem like the most likely scenario?

Zaza is a defensive minded, hard nosed, 25 year old C-PF that can play either big position and is probably worth a decent part of the MLE for some years. Unlike some of the older guys who's games have seen some major decline recently, Zaza can guard centers and would be worth an investment until the end of the KG era.

Any of the wings guys I mentioned would be great. I don't see Hill or Barnes coming north as both have been professed warm weather guys. But the options have to be explored. Personally I like Jones and Ross and think both would come cheap, like say LLE or less.

I think Flip Murray is a great back up PG for Rondo. He can shoot. He has a good handle. And he isn't the absolute worse defender I have ever seen. He, unlike Eddie, is a small guy that can shoot and play the point and run an offense and bring up the ball against pressure. Given Rondo's probable expanded role this upcoming year, we will probably only need 10 MPG out of the back PG, so Murray, I think, would be a great cheap option.

Will any of this be flashy? NO. Will any of this be fun to talk about? Probably not as much fun as a big trade. But, will this probably have the Celtics still playing at this time next year. Probably....unless of course they have already swept the Lakers!!!

  Not sure I exactly followed that. Is your answer D or E?

E.) I don't see what's so confusing.

[Chris]

D.  I think they will ride it out with this roster for one more year (or at least wait until the trade deadline).

[Who]

(1) Option D

Way way back in the rear view mirror

(2) Option A
(3) Option C

Not happening -- Option B, and/or a Glen Davis sign and trade.

[nickagneta]

I just don't see what the infatuation is with signing guys who are going to be 35 and older before the next season even starts!! I understand veteran teams win championships but I thought the key word there was veteran not old as crap for a professional basketball player.

Joe Smith and Rasheed Wallace both took major steps backwards in their game recently. McDyess will be operating on knees that have already had major problems and will be almost 36 years old during next post season. Hill, though recently showing a resurgence, will be 37 before next season starts and has been injury prone his entire career. Besides, he's a professed warm weather dude.

And as much as I would like to ship Tony out of town for less than a bucket of balls, a Scal and Tony package isn't going to be making a major difference, if any, on this team. I just don't see any of the A through D options happening anytime soon.

[droopdog7]

I just don't see what the infatuation is with signing guys who are going to be 35 and older before the next season even starts!! I understand veteran teams win championships but I thought the key word there was veteran not old as crap for a professional basketball player.

Joe Smith and Rasheed Wallace both took major steps backwards in their game recently. McDyess will be operating on knees that have already had major problems and will be almost 36 years old during next post season. Hill, though recently showing a resurgence, will be 37 before next season starts and has been injury prone his entire career. Besides, he's a professed warm weather dude.

And as much as I would like to ship Tony out of town for less than a bucket of balls, a Scal and Tony package isn't going to be making a major difference, if any, on this team. I just don't see any of the A through D options happening anytime soon.

It's not that we are infutuated with old guys.  I just think we need to get players that are a proven commodity and reliable.  No POB's and the like.  Now obviously younger guys can also be proven.  But guess what, they also would likely be much more expensive (and likely out of our range).  So in the end, we'll need to go after guys that we know can play and are relatively cheap. 

[nickagneta]

I just don't see what the infatuation is with signing guys who are going to be 35 and older before the next season even starts!! I understand veteran teams win championships but I thought the key word there was veteran not old as crap for a professional basketball player.

Joe Smith and Rasheed Wallace both took major steps backwards in their game recently. McDyess will be operating on knees that have already had major problems and will be almost 36 years old during next post season. Hill, though recently showing a resurgence, will be 37 before next season starts and has been injury prone his entire career. Besides, he's a professed warm weather dude.

And as much as I would like to ship Tony out of town for less than a bucket of balls, a Scal and Tony package isn't going to be making a major difference, if any, on this team. I just don't see any of the A through D options happening anytime soon.

It's not that we are infutuated with old guys.  I just think we need to get players that are a proven commodity and reliable.  No POB's and the like.  Now obviously younger guys can also be proven.  But guess what, they also would likely be much more expensive (and likely out of our range).  So in the end, we'll need to go after guys that we know can play and are relatively cheap. 

But do we know how the used to play or do we know how they are currently playing? I thionk many people are expecting Rasheed and Smith and McDyess to step into a time machine and play like they did 2-3 years ago. They have entirely different games now and I'm not sure I would be playing any of those guys in front of Big Baby.

[droopdog7]

I just don't see what the infatuation is with signing guys who are going to be 35 and older before the next season even starts!! I understand veteran teams win championships but I thought the key word there was veteran not old as crap for a professional basketball player.

Joe Smith and Rasheed Wallace both took major steps backwards in their game recently. McDyess will be operating on knees that have already had major problems and will be almost 36 years old during next post season. Hill, though recently showing a resurgence, will be 37 before next season starts and has been injury prone his entire career. Besides, he's a professed warm weather dude.

And as much as I would like to ship Tony out of town for less than a bucket of balls, a Scal and Tony package isn't going to be making a major difference, if any, on this team. I just don't see any of the A through D options happening anytime soon.

It's not that we are infutuated with old guys.  I just think we need to get players that are a proven commodity and reliable.  No POB's and the like.  Now obviously younger guys can also be proven.  But guess what, they also would likely be much more expensive (and likely out of our range).  So in the end, we'll need to go after guys that we know can play and are relatively cheap. 

But do we know how the used to play or do we know how they are currently playing? I thionk many people are expecting Rasheed and Smith and McDyess to step into a time machine and play like they did 2-3 years ago. They have entirely different games now and I'm not sure I would be playing any of those guys in front of Big Baby.

I wouldn't play Smith ahead of BBD but I would play Ra and McDyess ahead of him.  And I understand that these guys are not going to be effective for 40 minutes a night anymore.  But we don't need them for that.  I do believe that they can be very effective for 15-20 minutes a night. 

[bobdelt]

I just don't see what the infatuation is with signing guys who are going to be 35 and older before the next season even starts!! I understand veteran teams win championships but I thought the key word there was veteran not old as crap for a professional basketball player.

Joe Smith and Rasheed Wallace both took major steps backwards in their game recently. McDyess will be operating on knees that have already had major problems and will be almost 36 years old during next post season. Hill, though recently showing a resurgence, will be 37 before next season starts and has been injury prone his entire career. Besides, he's a professed warm weather dude.

And as much as I would like to ship Tony out of town for less than a bucket of balls, a Scal and Tony package isn't going to be making a major difference, if any, on this team. I just don't see any of the A through D options happening anytime soon.

I completely agree with this. I'm tired of old washed up player. I'd like to get someone we can actually have on our team for more than their last year before retirement.

[Michael Anthony]

As usual, good post Nick.

It might be a bit of a stretch to sign Big Baby AND use most of the MLE on Pachulia - I think it is one or the other at this point.

If I am right, I would opt for the length and try to back fill with a guy like Sheldon Williams as a sixth big.

Garnett / Scalabrine / Powe
Perkins / Pachulia / Williams

I am also somewhat interested in Utah free agent Morris Almond if we have the roster room - he could really fill it up in college and in the D league, but could not seem to crack the Utah rotation. At 24 years old, he would be like a substitute first rounder this year.

[droopdog7]

I just don't see what the infatuation is with signing guys who are going to be 35 and older before the next season even starts!! I understand veteran teams win championships but I thought the key word there was veteran not old as crap for a professional basketball player.

Joe Smith and Rasheed Wallace both took major steps backwards in their game recently. McDyess will be operating on knees that have already had major problems and will be almost 36 years old during next post season. Hill, though recently showing a resurgence, will be 37 before next season starts and has been injury prone his entire career. Besides, he's a professed warm weather dude.

And as much as I would like to ship Tony out of town for less than a bucket of balls, a Scal and Tony package isn't going to be making a major difference, if any, on this team. I just don't see any of the A through D options happening anytime soon.

I completely agree with this. I'm tired of old washed up player. I'd like to get someone we can actually have on our team for more than their last year before retirement.

And how do you propose we do that within the budgetary constraints we have?

[Roy Hobbs]

I just don't see what the infatuation is with signing guys who are going to be 35 and older before the next season even starts!! I understand veteran teams win championships but I thought the key word there was veteran not old as crap for a professional basketball player.

The problem is, from my perspective, that two types of players are available for cheap money:  "old guys", and unproven guys.  It's going to be very difficult to fill the bench with multiple young talented guys.  Those are the players that either stay put, or sign contracts for more than we have.  Sure, we could sign Zaza for the full MLE (if he leaves Atlanta) but how are we going to fill other holes?  Signing an older veteran may allow us to split the MLE between 2 or even 3 players.

And as much as I would like to ship Tony out of town for less than a bucket of balls, a Scal and Tony package isn't going to be making a major difference, if any, on this team. I just don't see any of the A through D options happening anytime soon.

We'll see.  It could be that there's nothing out there for that package.  It could also be that a player like Nocioni is available, who would help tremendously.