Let me try to get this back on track with an actual proposal for people's review. Warning - there is a lot of financial discussion, since that aspect is fascinating to me and really what makes trades work.
While it's impossible to say what would have happened with Posey here this year (and absolutely makes no difference anyway since he wasn't here, and our season is over), I personally think he can still give us one more good year as a top quality sixth man to help us win a title in 2010. His salary is the concern obviously, since we'll increase our luxury tax this year if we take on more salary, and we'll be paying him $6.45 million in 2010-11 and $6.9 million in 2011-12. That could easily be considered $12.9 and 13.8 million with the luxury tax considered.
I, however, prefer to look at the percentage of our salary by which we exceed the luxury level (x), and attribute that additional cost to each player so it's not that KG costs $18.8 million in 10-11 and Posey costs $12.9, but rather KG costs $18.8 million times (1+x) and Posey costs $6.45 million times (1+x), etc. But that's just personal choice and too complicated without all figures known. I will analyze this by adding a 25% figure with respect to new additions to our roster, which is higher than our actual likely excess over the luxury level. With a $70 million luxury level - $1.15 mil less than last year - our total salary would have to be $87.5 million to put us 25% over the luxury level. We're at $73,376,991 currently without counting Pruitt's team option (I think $82 is possible, even likely, but not $87) and at $44,726,729 in 10-11 counting only KG, Pierce and Perk.
So, I will assume Posey's contract actually costs us 25% more with luxury tax implications. That means Posey costs about $8.1 million in 2010-11 and $8.7 milion in 2011-12. (I'll get to 2009-10 below.) That's a huge burden, since I figure he'll actually only be worth about $4.5 million in 10-11 and maybe $3 million in 11-12 (about $9.3 million of overpaying). Maybe we can remedy some of that last figure with a buyout in the final season or by using the expiring $6.9 million as a trade chip. But for now, I'll say it's $9.3 million of overpaying.
That is why I think we need to get much more than just Posey. Taking on Posey (who has similar cost problems for New Orleans - $77,575,998 in salary next year, $64,696,130 in 10-11, $31,097,580 in 11-12 for just Posey, West and Paul) is a big burden, so we have to get additional assets. From my perspective, I want a first rounder (maybe this year - number 21 I think) or even two, and Julian Wright, a guy I'm big on and who I think can help us next year, and step into Posey's sixth man role in 10-11 and maybe more beyond (we'd have him through 10-11 at $2 mil next year, $2.85 in 10-11 (TO) and he'd be a RFA in 11-12 with a $4 mil qualifying offer).
Their combined salary for 09-10 is $8,031,840. Under the CBA rules, New Orleans can take back no more than $10,139,800. If we're getting that salary, we have to send out at least $6,345,472 under the CBA.
Let's say New Orleans is interested in Big Baby, an LSU guy who can give backup minutes at the 4 and even the 5. He agrees to a sign and trade with a long term deal that starts at around $4.9 million (10% raises would make it roughly 5 and $30 mil - if that's more than what's allowed, my numbers may be off, but I think with an early-Bird it's doable). So let's say, regardless of the length of the contract, it starts at that figure. It counts as $4,900,00 going into New Orleans and $2,450,000 going out for us (under the rules Roy has eloquently and kindly explained). To make it work out, we need to send out at least $3,895,472 more and New Orleans can take on no more than $5,239,800 more. Also consider, since this is very much about cost savings for New Orleans, they want to take on as little salary as possible, so they probably want to stick close to that $3,895,472 and they want the deals to be expiring.
Thing is, we actually have some mix and match options to make this work. We take the option on Pruitt and give them Scal and Pruitt - that's $4,239,290 which fits in the range. Tony Allen, Pruitt and Walker works too ($4,061,917). (I don't like dealing Walker, but the addition of Wright makes him a bit more dispensable.) Eddie House and JR Giddens could also be plugged in under various circumstances, but then we lose Eddie, who we know works with Posey. So for now, I'll choose the Davis-Scal-Pruitt option. Also keep in mind that with Davis being involved in a sign and trade, we'd have to get a 2010 first rounder, since we can't make this trade before July and the draft is this month. (Maybe we also get a conditional 2012 first rounder - top 20 protected for 2 years; otherwise it becomes a second).
Now for financial implications. I'll analyze it in two ways - one, assuming we would have resigned Davis at the price above and another assuming we would have just let him walk. In both cases I will assume we would resign Scalabrine in 2010-11 and 11-12 for $2 million a year. That's a big assumption but somewhat realistic considering that we like Scal, and for a veteran "clubhouse" guy who knows the system and can play the 5th big role, $2 million seems realistic.
Alternative A. Assuming we would otherwise resign Davis, we take no cap hit this year. Scal and Davis would cost a total of $8,313,793 next year (we don't have to take the option on Pruitt otherwise, so that's not really any savings); Posey and Wright cost about $280,000 less - $350,000 using my 25% tax bonus. However, since New Orleans' salary would go up by $1,107,450 (adding in Pruitt) they'd probably want money to offset the added costs. So let's say they want a payment of $1,250,000. In that case, the deal costs us about $900,000 next year (since it's because of a cash payment, no further luxury tax adjustment is necessary).
In 2010-11, it changes. Using a 10% raise for Davis, he'd make $5,390,000 in 10-11. With Scal at $2, that's $7,390,000 in salary. Posey and Wright will earn $9,336,656 that year. That's a difference of $1,946,656. Let's say the draft pick is about number 20 and earns about $1.35 million in 2010-11. That brings the cost up to about $3.3 million, and with the luxury tax implications, about $4,125,000.
In 2011-12, we have to deal with Wright's free agency. I will assume (again a big one) we resign him for about what we'd be paying Davis had we kept Davis. So the difference comes down to $6,925,400 for Posey and $1.5 mil for the 2010 first v. $2 million for Scalabrine (keep in mind at that point they'll probably be filling the same 5th big role, I actually think Posey will do it better and can be a trade chip with his expiring contract). That's a difference of $6,425,400, or $8,031,750 using the 25% luxury tax charge.
Alternative B. Assuming we'd let Davis walk, we take a pretty big financial hit next year since we're basically only clearing Scal from our books, so we tack on about $4.62 million in salary (about $5.77 million with the luxury tax) to replace Scalabrine with James Posey and Julian Wright. However, New Orleans still takes the cap hit because of Davis and Pruitt, so they still want the $1.25 mil, making it more like $7 million.
In 2010-11, that difference would grow to about $7,336,656 (assuming the $2 mil to Scal we'd spend otherwise), or $9,170,820 with the luxury tax. In 2011-12, assuming Wright is resigned to a contract starting at about $5.95 million (which was the number I had for Davis), and the 2010 first rounder makes about $1.5 million, our salary increases by $12,375,400, or about $15,469,250 with the tax.
So depending on what you would otherwise do with Davis this summer, the trade comes down to either (A) three years of Scalabrine and Davis locked up plus about $13 million for three years of Posey, Julian Wright locked up and a 2010 first rounder from New Orleans or (B) three years of Scalabrine and about $31.6 million for three years of Posey, Julian Wright locked up and a 2010 first rounder from New Orleans. (Keep in mind, if Wright doesn't pan out and we don't resign him, we get him for two years and it costs us about $7.5 million less in either scenario.) Those amounts include the salaries we would be paying these guys, cash payment of $1.25 mil to New Orleans, AND luxury tax implications.
Personally, I value the draft pick, which could be in the high teens or early twenties where Ainge has had great success, at at least $5 million (I think the salary is worth paying, and I'd pay more than $2 mil to get the pick). Without considering salary (and the above analysis negates salary differentials), if I could trade the next three years of Scalabrine for the next three years of Posey (and get a huge expiring contract trade chip for the future), I would pay at least $9 million to make that move because I consider it a huge upgrade for a team in position to win now.
So to me, the Celtics get about a million in value to swap Davis for Wright, and I would personally rather have Wright than Davis. (Under scenario B I'm paying about $9.5 million for the next two years of Julian Wright plus whatever I'd pay to lock him after that, which I would do since I think he's a very good player on both ends who fills many needs now and in the future). The way I see it we suddenly have two more guys who can throw minutes at Lebron and can defend Turkoglu and Lewis. Wright might be an elite wing defender in a couple years with the size to defend in the post too. And he has the skill to be a difference maker on offense. Being next to another great Jayhawk small forward will benefit him immensely. So yeah, I'd do the deal.
09-10 lineup
Rondo ______
R Allen House T Allen Giddens
Pierce Posey J Wright Walker
Garnett ______ _______
Perkins ______
Obviously, we'd still have to fill our frontcourt (Powe is a good, likely cheap option as the 5th) and backup point spots, but we haven't used any MLE or LLE money, and we still have the expiring contracts of TA and House, plus Giddens and Walker, and our wings are absolutely set and highly flexible giving us the option to go big or small. I'd sign Marbury to short money, Powe to a cheap deal, and use the MLE to address the frontcourt (Posey and Wright can probably fill about 15-20 minutes at the 4 anyway).
But I'll put it to you guys. Do you make that trade?
Topic: Any chance the C's try to regain Posey? (Read 11184 times)