I agree with you that the media will probably spin this in the Lakers favor and say that they're a tougher team now, but I disagree that the only difference between that and Baby's foul was that Rudy got hurt. The circumstances were totally different. For one, Baby jumped straight in the air and came down, and Varejeo didn't have any kind of running start, so there wasn't much chance for injury. In Ariza's case, you could tell there was really no regard for safety on that play and no real attempt at the ball. I'm not saying he purposefully tried to hurt the guy, but that was a vicious swipe at a guy when your team is down 28 late in the 3rd. It was a frustration play, and you could see it on his face.
I compare it more to the foul by Al Horford on TJ Ford from last year, where Horford got a one-game suspension. But last night's was worse. Ford actually changed direction at the last second, which lead to the hard foul. Rudy didn't. If Horford got one game, Ariza deserves at least that.