We need KG. A statistical look.

[nickagneta]

I couldn't happen to notice that recently the amount of points being scored against us seemed to be on the rise lately and coincided with KG's loss. Now, I haven't heard anything mentioned anywhere about it so I thought it was about time for someone to take a look at the bottom line. We need KG and here is the proof why:

                                                                  With KG        Without KG

Games(total)                                          124                 20
Points Against(total)                             11220            1927
Points Against/Game(total)                 90.5                96.4
Games(2007-08)                                   71                  11
Points Against(2007-08)                      6371              1034
Points Against/Game(2007-08)          89.7                94
Games(2008-09)                                   53                   9
Points Against(2008-09)                      4849               893
Points Against/Game(2008-09)          91.5                99.2

So, to summarize, this year KG's absence has meant an increase +7.7 PPG Against, last year it meant an increase of +4.3 PPG Against and overall in his Celtics career an increase of +5.9 PPG Against.

Now, bottom line it hasn't effected the efficacy of the team in a won loss situation as so far with KG the Celtcis are 96-26 for a winning percentage of 78.7% and without the Celtics are 16-4 for a winning percentage of 80%. I think that is part due to the overall excellence of the talent and coaching and the belief that this team has in the team concept that they can still play at such a high performance level even while subtracting the defending Defensive Player of the Year winner from their lineup.

But how do they do it. Simple. They score more. Here are those numbers:

                                                                 With KG        Without KG

Games(total)                                          124                 20
Points                                                      12450            2097
Points Against/Game                           100.4             104.9
Games(2007-08)                                   71                  11
Points(2007-08)                                     7110              1131
Points/Game(2007-08)                        100.1             102.8
Games(2008-09)                                   53                   9
Points(2008-09)                                     5340              966
Points/Game(2008-09)                        100.8             107.3

So when KG is gone, the offense picks it up by scoring, in his Celtics career, an average of +4.5 more points per game. that's +2.7 PPG last year and +6.5 PPG this year.

That means that overall KG being out of the lineup results in an overall net loss of -1.2 PPG differential this year, -1.6 PPG differential last year and an overall -1.4 PPG differential in his entire Celtics career.

Now this might not seem like much now, in the regular season, when about 50% of the teams the Celtics played without KG were scrubs, but if KG doesn't get 100% healthy for the playoffs, there is just no way the Celtics are going to score the amount of points they will have to score to make up for KG's loss on the defensive end.

Don't get me wrong, I think it is a testament to the players and coaches that even though KG goes down this team keeps on trucking, but IMO, there is no way this team is going to average 107 PPG and win 80% of the games the play in the playoffs without a healthy KG. So to that end, take your time KG. If it means an extra loss here or there, so be it because this team will need you, your defense, and your presence come April through June.

[Fafnir]

Excellent post, TP.

[Roy Hobbs]

Interesting, nick.  One thing your numbers seem to suggest is that we play at a faster pace with KG out, which would make some sense.  The numbers I'd really like to see are how KG's absence effects our offensive and defensive FG%.

TP for something productive to talk about.

[Big Ticket]

Some good data and a TP for your work.

But I think this years "games w/o KG" are somewhat skewed by the other players that are also injured and not playing.

[Bankshot]

I couldn't happen to notice that recently the amount of points being scored against us seemed to be on the rise lately and coincided with KG's loss. Now, I haven't heard anything mentioned anywhere about it so I thought it was about time for someone to take a look at the bottom line. We need KG and here is the proof why:

                                                                  With KG        Without KG

Games(total)                                          124                 20
Points Against(total)                             11220            1927
Points Against/Game(total)                 90.5                96.4
Games(2007-08)                                   71                  11
Points Against(2007-08)                      6371              1034
Points Against/Game(2007-08)          89.7                94
Games(2008-09)                                   53                   9
Points Against(2008-09)                      4849               893
Points Against/Game(2008-09)          91.5                99.2

So, to summarize, this year KG's absence has meant an increase +7.7 PPG Against, last year it meant an increase of +4.3 PPG Against and overall in his Celtics career an increase of +5.9 PPG Against.

Now, bottom line it hasn't effected the efficacy of the team in a won loss situation as so far with KG the Celtcis are 96-26 for a winning percentage of 78.7% and without the Celtics are 16-4 for a winning percentage of 80%. I think that is part due to the overall excellence of the talent and coaching and the belief that this team has in the team concept that they can still play at such a high performance level even while subtracting the defending Defensive Player of the Year winner from their lineup.

But how do they do it. Simple. They score more. Here are those numbers:

                                                                 With KG        Without KG

Games(total)                                          124                 20
Points                                                      12450            2097
Points Against/Game                           100.4             104.9
Games(2007-08)                                   71                  11
Points(2007-08)                                     7110              1131
Points/Game(2007-08)                        100.1             102.8
Games(2008-09)                                   53                   9
Points(2008-09)                                     5340              966
Points/Game(2008-09)                        100.8             107.3

So when KG is gone, the offense picks it up by scoring, in his Celtics career, an average of +4.5 more points per game. that's +2.7 PPG last year and +6.5 PPG this year.

That means that overall KG being out of the lineup results in an overall net loss of -1.2 PPG differential this year, -1.6 PPG differential last year and an overall -1.4 PPG differential in his entire Celtics career.

Now this might not seem like much now, in the regular season, when about 50% of the teams the Celtics played without KG were scrubs, but if KG doesn't get 100% healthy for the playoffs, there is just no way the Celtics are going to score the amount of points they will have to score to make up for KG's loss on the defensive end.

Don't get me wrong, I think it is a testament to the players and coaches that even though KG goes down this team keeps on trucking, but IMO, there is no way this team is going to average 107 PPG and win 80% of the games the play in the playoffs without a healthy KG. So to that end, take your time KG. If it means an extra loss here or there, so be it because this team will need you, your defense, and your presence come April through June.

Nice work!  But did you really need to do all that research only to come to the conclusion that we're better with KG, something that everyone already knows?

[nickagneta]

Interesting, nick.  One thing your numbers seem to suggest is that we play at a faster pace with KG out, which would make some sense.  The numbers I'd really like to see are how KG's absence effects our offensive and defensive FG%.

TP for something productive to talk about.

The numbers that I would be really interested in would be what the offensive and defensive efficiencies are with and without KG. I think you're right that it does suggest a faster pace. I think the increase in offensive point production between this year and last year could very well have something to do with the elevation of the offensive game of Perk, Rondo and Big Baby who are all, as far as I am concerned, miles ahead of where they were last year when KG got hurt for that 9 game stretch. Their increase in offensive weapons just from those three would make sense for the increase in offensive production this year as, with KG out, they all take on a more prominent role.

Also, could the increase in points allowed be tied to the fact that last year we had a healthy Scal and Posey playing while this year, for a good portion of KG's absence, his defense has been replaced by BBD, Mikki Moore, and a not so healthy Scal?

[LarBrd33]

so wait a second... are you trying to tell me that these stats show we're better off when our leader, most talented player and best defender is on the court?  What?

I'm more interested to see some stats on whether the Lakers are better with or without Bynum.

[CelticsWhat35]

Interesting, nick.  One thing your numbers seem to suggest is that we play at a faster pace with KG out, which would make some sense.  The numbers I'd really like to see are how KG's absence effects our offensive and defensive FG%.

TP for something productive to talk about.

I don't know if we necessarily play at a faster pace when KG is out (although Rondo is more aggressive, so it could be true), but when you're giving up baskets easier and earlier in the shot clock, it's also going to give you more possessions on the offensive end.  One of the great things about our defense is that we force the opposition into bad shots.  We make them use up a lot of the shot clock.  When that's the case, we don't get as many of our own looks at the basket.

Although conversely, getting more stops should lead to more fast break opportunities.  I guess what I'm trying to say is.....I have no idea what I'm talking about. 

[Mr October]

I miss KG. Take your time getting back to 100 % big fella.

[BballTim]

so wait a second... are you trying to tell me that these stats show we're better off when our leader, most talented player and best defender is on the court?  What?

I'm more interested to see some stats on whether the Lakers are better with or without Bynum.

  Without looking, I'll guess without.