You missing "had he been bought out".
Wrong.
What do you mean wrong? You were insinuating what MY thesis was... I fixed it for you.
Well, I understood your question differently.
And the way you want it answered is quite hard because there are many factors to consider.
But since Joe wasn't bought out until the last minute, untimately I would say we would've had low chances in getting him regardless of how I would've felt about our chances with him had he been bought out earlier.
And there's no contradiction in it either. I could've felt we had a strong chance of getting him in that particular time, and as time went by feel that our chances lowering by the minute. At the time of the trade deadline, I thought he was going to be bought out quite soon and we would have a good chance of landing him. It didn't happen, so it doesn't matter.
And again, just because I like our chances, it doesn't mean that there wasn't a high risk of losing him.