Hornets Regret Signing Posey Already?

[footey]

The 4th year is irrelevant if you believe (as I do) that we can only compete for championships with the Big 3 over the next 3 years (including this one) and that we stand a much better chance with Posey on our team than without, especially these next two years.

[winsomme]

everything is so polarized here. When did it become a given the Posey will be a "has-been" in 2010 and 2011?

I've given you concrete recent examples of players that continue to be effective in similar years to when you are claiming he will be a has-been.

  What if I came up with examples of players who didn't continue to be effective? What would that prove?

it would prove that it is not a given that Posey will be or will not be effective in 2010 and/or 2011....

you have presented the notion that you can't seem get me to acknowledge that it is a detriment to pay millions to a "has-been"....

the question is not whether it is a detriment to pay millions to a player that is a "has-been". the first question is whether the guy will be a "has-been".

i gave you current examples of players effective at a similar point in their career not to prove that Posey will still be effective in 2010 and 2011, but to support the idea that it is not unreasonable to think so....

i also pointed out that even if his game does slide, at the very least in 2011 he would be an expiring contract and thus would still have value (ie not the detriment that you seem to think he or his contract would be)...

[winsomme]

  There was only one team among the contenders in the league that seemed to have shared your opinion of Posey and they might be having second thoughts. It's easy to say that Wyc was cheap, but if Posey's as good this year and next as you think he is then there are a number of teams that he could have helped.

I'm pretty sure there was more than one team that shared my opinion of Pose and his potential importance to a contending team. I'm pretty sure CLE and LA both showed interest in Pose.

the question was how much it was going to take to sign him and also what the team's need was at that position.

we have a clear need at Pose's spot. so that is a factor too.

  That's the point. They showed interest and decided he wasn't worth the money.

or that they didn't have as big a need at that position.

[BballTim]

  There was only one team among the contenders in the league that seemed to have shared your opinion of Posey and they might be having second thoughts. It's easy to say that Wyc was cheap, but if Posey's as good this year and next as you think he is then there are a number of teams that he could have helped.

I'm pretty sure there was more than one team that shared my opinion of Pose and his potential importance to a contending team. I'm pretty sure CLE and LA both showed interest in Pose.

the question was how much it was going to take to sign him and also what the team's need was at that position.

we have a clear need at Pose's spot. so that is a factor too.

  That's the point. They showed interest and decided he wasn't worth the money.

or that they didn't have as big a need at that position.

  Apparently nobody did except for NO.

[winsomme]

  There was only one team among the contenders in the league that seemed to have shared your opinion of Posey and they might be having second thoughts. It's easy to say that Wyc was cheap, but if Posey's as good this year and next as you think he is then there are a number of teams that he could have helped.

I'm pretty sure there was more than one team that shared my opinion of Pose and his potential importance to a contending team. I'm pretty sure CLE and LA both showed interest in Pose.

the question was how much it was going to take to sign him and also what the team's need was at that position.

we have a clear need at Pose's spot. so that is a factor too.

  That's the point. They showed interest and decided he wasn't worth the money.

or that they didn't have as big a need at that position.

  Apparently nobody did except for NO.

 one is all it takes....

[BballTim]

  There was only one team among the contenders in the league that seemed to have shared your opinion of Posey and they might be having second thoughts. It's easy to say that Wyc was cheap, but if Posey's as good this year and next as you think he is then there are a number of teams that he could have helped.

I'm pretty sure there was more than one team that shared my opinion of Pose and his potential importance to a contending team. I'm pretty sure CLE and LA both showed interest in Pose.

the question was how much it was going to take to sign him and also what the team's need was at that position.

we have a clear need at Pose's spot. so that is a factor too.

  That's the point. They showed interest and decided he wasn't worth the money.

or that they didn't have as big a need at that position.

  Apparently nobody did except for NO.

your point being?

plus, one is all it takes....

  You'd have to read those few sentences that you quoted to see my point, but the point was you went from "I'm pretty sure there was more than one team that shared my opinion of Pose" to "one is all it takes....".

[winsomme]

  There was only one team among the contenders in the league that seemed to have shared your opinion of Posey and they might be having second thoughts. It's easy to say that Wyc was cheap, but if Posey's as good this year and next as you think he is then there are a number of teams that he could have helped.

I'm pretty sure there was more than one team that shared my opinion of Pose and his potential importance to a contending team. I'm pretty sure CLE and LA both showed interest in Pose.

the question was how much it was going to take to sign him and also what the team's need was at that position.

we have a clear need at Pose's spot. so that is a factor too.

  That's the point. They showed interest and decided he wasn't worth the money.

or that they didn't have as big a need at that position.

  Apparently nobody did except for NO.

your point being?

plus, one is all it takes....

  You'd have to read those few sentences that you quoted to see my point, but the point was you went from "I'm pretty sure there was more than one team that shared my opinion of Pose" to "one is all it takes....".

BBall, you said "apparently nobody did except NO" in response to my point about "need at the position"...not "sharing my opinion about Posey".

you are combining two different points.

teams can share my opinion of Posey and not offer him the same contract as NO because they don't have as big a need at that position.

that is to say, teams not offering Posey the same deal as NO doesn't mean they don't share my opinion of Posey...

"one is all it takes" was referring to not ultimately getting Posey....not how many teams share my opinion of Posey...

[winsomme]

you know this all comes down to relative risk. The risk of not having Posey this season and next (where most conceed that he would be valuable) weighed against the risk of having Posey the following two seasons (where his contract could pose a problem from a player who is no longer effective)...

for me, his effectiveness this year and next is much more clear than potential ineffectiveness in years 3 and 4.

and the hole created by him not being here is much more clear than impact of a 6-7 mil contract in 2010 and2011 (especially since in 2011 it would at the very least be an expiring contract).

[BballTim]

BBall, you said "apparently nobody did except NO" in response to my point about "need at the position"...not "sharing my opinion about Posey".

you are combining two different points.

teams can share my opinion of Posey and not offer him the same contract as NO because they don't have as big a need at that position.

that is to say, teams not offering Posey the same deal as NO doesn't mean they don't share my opinion of Posey...

"one is all it takes" was referring to not ultimately getting Posey....not how many teams share my opinion of Posey...

  Again, which teams besides NO share your opinion?

[BballTim]

you know this all comes down to relative risk. The risk of not having Posey this season and next (where most conceed that he would be valuable) weighed against the risk of having Posey the following two seasons (where his contract could pose a problem from a player who is no longer effective)...

for me, his effectiveness this year and next is much more clear than potential ineffectiveness in years 3 and 4.

and the hole created by him not being here is much more clear than impact of a 6-7 mil contract in 2010 and2011 (especially since in 2011 it would at the very least be an expiring contract).

  For you, there's no impact whatsoever to the team having to pay Posey $13M (plus $13M in luxury taxes). In that non-existent world of course it makes sense to sign Posey to whatever he wants for as long as he wants. There's no reason why any team wouldn't sign a player to a 4 year deal since the only downside is a contract that won't hurt the team at all.

[winsomme]

BBall, you said "apparently nobody did except NO" in response to my point about "need at the position"...not "sharing my opinion about Posey".

you are combining two different points.

teams can share my opinion of Posey and not offer him the same contract as NO because they don't have as big a need at that position.

that is to say, teams not offering Posey the same deal as NO doesn't mean they don't share my opinion of Posey...

"one is all it takes" was referring to not ultimately getting Posey....not how many teams share my opinion of Posey...

  Again, which teams besides NO share your opinion?

LA, CLE, TOR, DET, WASH, NO....the teams that were in the hunt for him....

[Vermont Green]

Wow, 2 1/2 days and 11 pages, this is quite a debate.  You have the contingent that believe because we have lost few games that it is certain that we will not win the title and it is all because we did not sign Posey.  Ainge is such an idiot.  So what is 4 years.  The Hornets were smart, the Celtics were dumb.

Then there are those who say how good can Posey be if the Hornets are actually worse than last year and there is a report (albeit a potentially unreliable one) that is saying they regret the signing and believe they overpaid.

It is not just about the money the Posey-ites say, it is about the need.  The Celtics needed him more than anyone else in the league so they should have paid more than anyone else in the league was willing to pay (or at least matched the one other team that was willing to pay more than the Celtics).

I have already said that I feel the price got too hign and the C's did the right thing but time will tell (or will it?).  If we don't win a title, does that prove we should have signed Posey?  To many it will but who can say that we would have won any more games with Posey.  And what about the team that does win the title if the Celtics don't?  Chances are that it will be a team that Posey is not on.

Why is it that the Celtics are the one team that can't win a title without Posey (or if they don't it is because they didn't sign Posey) but that plenty of other teams win without Posey?  I just don't get it.

For the record, right now, I don't think the Celtics are the best team but we are nothing more than a tweak away from being right there with anybody.  To be honest, I don't think it is Posey that we need.  We get killed when Eddie House is our PG and Leon Powe is our PF.  We have also coughed up potential wins with our starters making bad plays.  Plus Rondo, god love him, can't shoot and neither can Perk.  That makes it real tough on the big 3 to be perfect in close games.  Posey helps none of this and please don't give me the small ball argument (small ball is for teams that can't play tall ball).

I know I am rambling but doesn't everyone remember that Posey can only score when he has a wide open look?  James Posey does not change everything for the Celtics and he sure hasn't changed everything for the Hornets.  The Celtics are going to make a move soon and spend probably $1-$2 M, not $6-$7 M that Posey would have cost.  Make this next move a good one and we are right there for the title.  Now if we could get Posey for the right money, great but that isn't likely so we are going to have to find another way to win a title (just like the 28 other teams that don't have James Posey are trying to do).

[winsomme]

you know this all comes down to relative risk. The risk of not having Posey this season and next (where most conceed that he would be valuable) weighed against the risk of having Posey the following two seasons (where his contract could pose a problem from a player who is no longer effective)...

for me, his effectiveness this year and next is much more clear than potential ineffectiveness in years 3 and 4.

and the hole created by him not being here is much more clear than impact of a 6-7 mil contract in 2010 and2011 (especially since in 2011 it would at the very least be an expiring contract).

  For you, there's no impact whatsoever to the team having to pay Posey $13M (plus $13M in luxury taxes). In that non-existent world of course it makes sense to sign Posey to whatever he wants for as long as he wants. There's no reason why any team wouldn't sign a player to a 4 year deal since the only downside is a contract that won't hurt the team at all.

no, the downside WEIGHED against the likelihood that the downside materializes and the acknowledged upside...

and again 6.5 million, not 13 million. You can't just decide which contract you want to double.

[BballTim]

you know this all comes down to relative risk. The risk of not having Posey this season and next (where most conceed that he would be valuable) weighed against the risk of having Posey the following two seasons (where his contract could pose a problem from a player who is no longer effective)...

for me, his effectiveness this year and next is much more clear than potential ineffectiveness in years 3 and 4.

and the hole created by him not being here is much more clear than impact of a 6-7 mil contract in 2010 and2011 (especially since in 2011 it would at the very least be an expiring contract).

  For you, there's no impact whatsoever to the team having to pay Posey $13M (plus $13M in luxury taxes). In that non-existent world of course it makes sense to sign Posey to whatever he wants for as long as he wants. There's no reason why any team wouldn't sign a player to a 4 year deal since the only downside is a contract that won't hurt the team at all.

no, the downside WEIGHED against the likelihood that the downside materializes and the acknowledged upside...

and again 6.5 million, not 13 million. You can't just decide which contract you want to double.

  I'm not deciding which contract to double, you are. Did you read the post where I explained it? You didn't disagree in any of your responses.

[winsomme]

you know this all comes down to relative risk. The risk of not having Posey this season and next (where most conceed that he would be valuable) weighed against the risk of having Posey the following two seasons (where his contract could pose a problem from a player who is no longer effective)...

for me, his effectiveness this year and next is much more clear than potential ineffectiveness in years 3 and 4.

and the hole created by him not being here is much more clear than impact of a 6-7 mil contract in 2010 and2011 (especially since in 2011 it would at the very least be an expiring contract).

  For you, there's no impact whatsoever to the team having to pay Posey $13M (plus $13M in luxury taxes). In that non-existent world of course it makes sense to sign Posey to whatever he wants for as long as he wants. There's no reason why any team wouldn't sign a player to a 4 year deal since the only downside is a contract that won't hurt the team at all.

no, the downside WEIGHED against the likelihood that the downside materializes and the acknowledged upside...

and again 6.5 million, not 13 million. You can't just decide which contract you want to double.

  I'm not deciding which contract to double, you are. Did you read the post where I explained it? You didn't disagree in any of your responses.

I'm not deciding who to double, i'm looking at what we know. we know that the Cs are under the luxury cap for 2010 and 2011.....

the rest of what happens in those years is to be determined....