Is TA Right Now as Good as He will Ever Get?!

[winsomme]

  Sure. As long as we also stop with any "Tony probably won't do well in the playoffs talk". On this blog, the naysayers always rule in the offseason. Any negative statement about any or all of the Celts is seen as a fact until proven otherwise.

That's fine with me. I never said that Tony couldn't do it in the playoffs, just that he hasn't yet, though you are right some have said such things. This will really be Tony's proving year. If he can play smart basketball in the playoffs and be a positive factor there and not a negative one then he will have made up for a bunch of what we lost in James Posey, but until then, he really hasn't.

i think we are going to need better bench play in the playoffs than we are seeing right now...

Pierce is really getting beat-up right now in part because of the bench not really playing well. since TA doesn't fit the Posey role, we have actually had to tweak our rotations and whereas last season Paul and KG were rotating in and out together, this year PP is having to step in with the bench unit. that puts a lot more wear and tear on him.

  Pierce is playing more of his minutes with KG than he did last year.

well i'm not sure that is necessarily the same thing....but Paul is playing with TA (TA at the SG, PP at the SF) and last year RA was playing with Pose (with RA at the SG and Pose at the SF).

RA was anchoring the second unit last year and this year it seems to me that PP has had to take on that job.

we also were able to play another unit entirely that we can't really play this year with Pose at the 4 (and PP and RA on the wing).

  Paul is playing the same percentage of his minutes with TA this year that he did last year. You're probably right that we haven't gone to a complete 2nd unit as much, but I don't think that's a bad thing. Pierce is playing about 1.5 minutes a game more this year and KG's up a couple but Ray's minutes are down so the big 3 averaged about 105 minutes a game and are at 106 minutes this year. For comparison in 2006-2007 they combined for about 117 minutes a game.

i'm not sure exactly how to break this down minutes-wise or percentage of minutes-wise, but it does seem to me that there has been a shift this year to Paul anchoring the second unit whereas that was Ray last year.....

i'm not saying that this is a huge problem or will be the difference in winning a Title or not, but when you also factor in Pose's ability to move to the PF, there has been a shift in the way that the bench functions...and IMO Paul is shouldering more of the work.

[Sweet17]

If intangibles were counted as stats,it would be something like :
this season so far
House-100 TA-10

last season

Posey-1000
House-500
TA-injuries/50

Funny. They do count intangibles as stats. It's called +/-. Guess who is ahead of House and Posey in that regard. Oh snap. That doesn't fit your theory right?

Pete

[housecall]

If intangibles were counted as stats,it would be something like :
this season so far
House-100 TA-10

last season

Posey-1000
House-500
TA-injuries/50

Funny. They do count intangibles as stats. It's called +/-. Guess who is ahead of House and Posey in that regard. Oh snap. That doesn't fit your theory right?

Pete

thats just 1 thing that is counted in the intangilbles...and if you think TA  brings more to the team than House or Posey did,then we are watching different teams.The Celtics i saw play last season Posey,House contributions vs TA's can't be measured in the same sentence.House this season is playing very well,stats alone doesn't tell the whole story.TA has had some good games also,but not enough to say he has played good consistently.

[Roy Hobbs]

If intangibles were counted as stats,it would be something like :
this season so far
House-100 TA-10

last season

Posey-1000
House-500
TA-injuries/50

Funny. They do count intangibles as stats. It's called +/-. Guess who is ahead of House and Posey in that regard. Oh snap. That doesn't fit your theory right?

Pete

+/- is a flawed stat, as I suspect you know.  For instance, Delonte West is #2 in the league and Wally Szczerbiak is #25.  I'm not sure what that's supposed to tell me, other than that they play with good teammates.

Also, according to NBA.com, Eddie is +66, and Tony is +60, despite Tony playing more minutes.  Link.  Doesn't that contradict your sarcastic retort?

(Also, hasn't the staff warned you about talking down to others?)

[bucknersrevenge]

If intangibles were counted as stats,it would be something like :
this season so far
House-100 TA-10

last season

Posey-1000
House-500
TA-injuries/50

Funny. They do count intangibles as stats. It's called +/-. Guess who is ahead of House and Posey in that regard. Oh snap. That doesn't fit your theory right?

Pete

thats just 1 thing that is counted in the intangilbles...and if you think TA  brings more to the team than House or Posey did,then we are watching different teams.The Celtics i saw play last season Posey,House contributions vs TA's can't be measured in the same sentence.House this season is playing very well,stats alone doesn't tell the whole story.TA has had some good games also,but not enough to say he has played good consistently.

I definitely agree that Tony nor any of the bench really have been consistent. Though inconsistency is generally the nature of bench players. That's why they're not starters. Take the 5 best benches in the league(whoever they are). I'm certain you will find a number of inconsistent players.

I will say that Tony as Doc has said on numerous occasions is VITALLY important to what the bench does out there. Last year's bench did not have the ability to manufacture points unless Paul facilitated all of the action. While they did play solid defense behind Posey, they had a ton of trouble executing offensively on anything that didn't result in a 3-pt shot. TA despite his deficiencies can create his own offense and occasionally create for others. Often times that whole bench goes as Tony goes. Now depending on your perspective, maybe that's good, maybe that's bad but I don't think Posey had the same impact on the bench.

[Sweet17]

Also, according to NBA.com, Eddie is +66, and Tony is +60, despite Tony playing more minutes.  Link.  Doesn't that contradict your sarcastic retort?

Not really. TA's on court is +7.0 and House's is +5.7. All your statistic means is that Eddie has played more minutes or more minutes with better lineups. Or perhaps he played in a blowout when TA didn't. Anyway I was thinking about these numbers because as "I suspect you know" totals are less useful.

+/- is a flawed stat, as I suspect you know.  For instance, Delonte West is #2 in the league and Wally Szczerbiak is #25.  I'm not sure what that's supposed to tell me, other than that they play with good teammates.

Every stat is "flawed." Shooting percentage is "flawed." eFG% is "flawed" Roland Rating is "flawed". That doesn't really invalidate my argument that this statistic does in fact measure intangibles.

Your "proof" that a "+/-" stat is meaningless because its flawed ACROSS teams isn't very solid. Most people here would look at the C's on court/off court numbers and think they work pretty well for OUR team as well as the Cavs. It's perfectly useful Intra team.. It's not so hot inter team as you know crappy players get boosted up (Wally).

Who have been the best four players on our team - Garnett, Rondo, Pierce, and Ray Allen. Shocker Garnett's +16, Rondo's +13.0, +11.5 Pierce and + 14.4 for Ray Allen.

Shocker. Seems to work pretty good to me.

That stat does tell us though that - "intangible" wise D. West is probably ahead of Wally. I'd put +/- up over some bogus made up stat any day of the week. Sorry if that hurts your "idea" that TA sucks because you think he is a thug. But hey keep on fighting the good fight. The idea that Houses "intangibles" make him vastly better then TA is laughable.

TA has great "intangibles" he plays some of the best defense in the NBA at the 1 and 2 spots.

 
 

[Sweet17]

I definitely agree that Tony nor any of the bench really have been consistent. Though inconsistency is generally the nature of bench players. That's why they're not starters. Take the 5 best benches in the league(whoever they are). I'm certain you will find a number of inconsistent players.

TA is consistent its just on the defensive end - people don't notice that side of the game as much. Furthermore its not so much that bench players are inconsistent (and thus are forced on the bench) its just that they get less opportunities so they tend to fluctuate more, IMHO.

Most bench players if they started would be more consistently mediocre. What I mean is say you hit 50% of your shots. If you gets just 5 shots a game - your going to have more runs where you go 5-5 in one game and 0-5 in the next game. Your starter who gets ten shots might end  up 5 - 10 every night. A "volume shooter" like Walker was often pretty consistent.. <g>

You see what I am getting at.. Its unreasonable to expect guys playing 20 minutes or less to produce good numbers every night. Posey for all the love he gets NOW was horrible with that. Some nights his 3 point shot wouldn't be falling and he would get nothing - and the next game big numbers.

Pete

[Steve Weinman]

I definitely agree that Tony nor any of the bench really have been consistent. Though inconsistency is generally the nature of bench players. That's why they're not starters. Take the 5 best benches in the league(whoever they are). I'm certain you will find a number of inconsistent players.

 Posey for all the love he gets NOW was horrible with that. Some nights his 3 point shot wouldn't be falling and he would get nothing - and the next game big numbers.

Pete

Regardless of whether or not the basketball claim being made there is valid, Posey received plenty of love when he was here.  The adulation that he has received since the summer isn't some sort of revisionist history-writing on the board - there were plenty of Celtics fans who recognized the contributions he made to the title team in '07-'08.

Not sure if that's how you meant it (apologies if you didnt), but it comes across as though you believe most of the love for Posey was retroactive, so to speak, and I take issue with that claim.

-sw

[winsomme]

I definitely agree that Tony nor any of the bench really have been consistent. Though inconsistency is generally the nature of bench players. That's why they're not starters. Take the 5 best benches in the league(whoever they are). I'm certain you will find a number of inconsistent players.

TA is consistent its just on the defensive end - people don't notice that side of the game as much. Furthermore its not so much that bench players are inconsistent (and thus are forced on the bench) its just that they get less opportunities so they tend to fluctuate more, IMHO.

Most bench players if they started would be more consistently mediocre. What I mean is say you hit 50% of your shots. If you gets just 5 shots a game - your going to have more runs where you go 5-5 in one game and 0-5 in the next game. Your starter who gets ten shots might end  up 5 - 10 every night. A "volume shooter" like Walker was often pretty consistent.. <g>

You see what I am getting at.. Its unreasonable to expect guys playing 20 minutes or less to produce good numbers every night. Posey for all the love he gets NOW was horrible with that. Some nights his 3 point shot wouldn't be falling and he would get nothing - and the next game big numbers.

Pete

a couple of tricky things about comparing the contributions of TA and Pose are:

1)  they simply do not play the same positions...Pose played PF and SF, and TA plays almost entirely at the SG spot...

2) what would Pose be doing this year on the Cs? i mean, right now he is hitting 47% of his threes which is insane...

i think the burden for winning games is too much on the starters right now and we need to get better contributions from the bench in general...and that definitely includes TA.

this month has been particularly bad for the bench where winning the games not only is on the backs of the starters, but often they are making up for a negative impact from the bench. they all need to pick it up.

maybe that is where some of the frustration or concern over TA is coming from.

for me, i like TA (and the bench in general) but they need to get better.

[Sweet17]

Not sure if that's how you meant it (apologies if you didnt), but it comes across as though you believe most of the love for Posey was retroactive, so to speak, and I take issue with that claim.

I see where your going. I think you got a point. Posey was well liked - both at signing time and during the season. It's pretty clear though that he wasn't LOVED the way he is now until after his clutch playoff run.

It's hard to argue with loving a guy after his amazing display. He really lived up to his nickname of big game James. I am not knocking the love. But it does distort his solid but not out of this world regular season play..

[Redz]

Last night was one of those nights where Tony just makes me nuts.  Atlanta was pretty consistently guarding the hoop with at least two guys.  Tony was a one trick pony and insisted on forcing it right at the heart of the D with no chance of success.

It was a useless night for Tony.  I just wish he had the ability to adjust his game a little bit on the nights when things aren't set up to benefit his strengths.

[Sweet17]

It was a useless night for Tony.  I just wish he had the ability to adjust his game a little bit on the nights when things aren't set up to benefit his strengths.

TA played some GREAT defense on Joe Johnson. I mean he totally frustrated Joe on several trips. Personally I think TAs detractors just don't care much about his defense.

That's his game - any scoring is kinda bonus. Though for what it's worth he tied the for the lead in bench scoring. I wouldn't say PER differential is a perfect statistic. But in my experience it doesn't really lie. Guys with good PER differentials are good players almost without exception.

TA has a good PER differential. He has been good.

[Redz]

It was a useless night for Tony.  I just wish he had the ability to adjust his game a little bit on the nights when things aren't set up to benefit his strengths.

TA played some GREAT defense on Joe Johnson. I mean he totally frustrated Joe on several trips. Personally I think TAs detractors just don't care much about his defense.

Fair enough.  Admittedly my TV is getting ready for replacement and I have a tougher time following who is who on D than I do on offense (usually because the announcer calls out who has the ball)...Actually this is yet another really good argument for that new TV. 

But yeh, now that you mention Tony did do some nice work on Johnson. 

I just get nutty seeing him fall over himself.

[Chief]

Tony is what he is and will never be more than what he is. He had one magnificent 16-18 game stretch late in 06 and early in 07. Other than that, is he really markably better than the kid we first saw out of college? I don't think so. He will be a serviceable role player his entire career who will give you as many boneheaded plays as highlight reel suff and be extremely inconsistent. He is what he is. A Posey replacement, he isn't.

Tony could probably be the best player on a 12-70 team. See John Salmon and the Sacremento Kings.

[EJPLAYA]

It was a useless night for Tony.  I just wish he had the ability to adjust his game a little bit on the nights when things aren't set up to benefit his strengths.

TA played some GREAT defense on Joe Johnson. I mean he totally frustrated Joe on several trips. Personally I think TAs detractors just don't care much about his defense.

That's his game - any scoring is kinda bonus. Though for what it's worth he tied the for the lead in bench scoring. I wouldn't say PER differential is a perfect statistic. But in my experience it doesn't really lie. Guys with good PER differentials are good players almost without exception.

TA has a good PER differential. He has been good.

TA did indeed play stretches of very good defense on Joe last night. He also had a few lapses where he was reaching at the ball instead of moving his feet that were costly. Rondo does that all the time as well. I think he plays very solid defense, however the three or four possessions a game that he costs them a few points gets returned in the three or four possessions on offense that he screws up and gives them back. If he would slow down and play within his game he could limit that, but he just doesn't learn. There are a few games though where his defense is on and he scores smartly that make everyone who loves him point to and say "See. He has so much upside." I really think his issue is he is not a very smart person. I know that's my opinion and hard to backup, and isn't very nice, but there are a lot of signs that point to that. His history shows that is a pretty fair assessment. I think he is a decent all around player. Just wish he'd stop making dumb offensive plays. Kind of like that fast break where he stole the ball. Great defensive play, but comes down and forces it when it wasn't there and gets blocked. If he would have backed it back out and gotten the team into the offense it could have been a bucket instead of a wasted opportunity.