Is TA Right Now as Good as He will Ever Get?!

[BballTim]

This sport is not measured in its entirety by statistical creations. People need to get it through their heads that there isn't a number that measures when a pass goes to the wrong guy, when a guy falls for the up-fake, etc.

  It's not all stats, but that doesn't mean they aren't useful or  meaningful. Do you think that NBA coaches/GMs eschew them? They use stats and they keep more detailed stats than what we see.

[moiso]

Just as Posey's contributions last year have taken to mythical proportions, I think that 07 stretch for tony has taken mythic proportions.  I really believe he is playing just as well now- the only difference is he's not playing 45 minutes and taking 20 shots/game and driving to the hoop anytime he pleases now.  He's meshing with the team better now, and his decision making is much better.

[nickagneta]

Tony is what he is and will never be more than what he is. He had one magnificent 16-18 game stretch late in 06 and early in 07. Other than that, is he really markably better than the kid we first saw out of college? I don't think so. He will be a serviceable role player his entire career who will give you as many boneheaded plays as highlight reel suff and be extremely inconsistent. He is what he is. A Posey replacement, he isn't.

  Of course he's not a Posey replacement. James carried the team on his back all the way to the finals last year. Don't you remember all of the posts last summer claiming that the Celts would be a much weaker team without Posey? We're lucky to be in contention for the playoffs without him.

So are you claiming that it is Tony Allen that is the reason that the Celtics are so much better than many thought? Because if you asked me I would say Tony Allen is playing a bit better than last year but it has been pretty much better chemistry between the Big Three and the exceptional increase in the quality of play of Rondo and Perk that is the reason for the Celtics success this year.

And as for him being a Posey replacement, come talk to me when Tony is shutting down Kobe, Odom, LeBron, Smith, Johnson, Prince and McDyess in the playoffs while hitting late game clutch fourth quarter three's in pressure situations. Posey was a leader, was clutch and was extremely versatile, words no one uses when describing Tony Allen.

Allen is playing a "bit" better than last year? His FG% has jumped nearly 4%. He is averaging less turnovers in more minutes. He is averaging nearly 1/2 a steal more. And when did Posey clamp down on Kobe and Lebron? If I'm not mistaken, Joe Johnson and Josh Smith had some huge games in the playoffs as well.

And who's claiming that Tony Allen is the reason that the Celtics are better than everyone thought they would be? He is part of the reason, big distinction. No one is expecting him to be this franchise changing player. He has been an excellent sixth man and that is his ceiling. He has been better than Posey for sure through one quarter of a season.

And he is still wildly inconsistent and he is still dribbling into a pack of defenders with his head down and he is still getting burned bad on backdoor plays and he is still fouling three point shooters by being head faked and he still is not a good outside shooter he still has more turnovers than he does assists and when he doesn't get more than 20 minutes playing time his per minute stats drop of radically.

Here's some interesting stats to look at from this year on comparing the difference in his play between when he gets 20+MPG and when he get >20MPG:

 

                            G       MPG       PTS/M       A/M         TO/M

>20MPG           11       15.1         .323         .047         .077

+20MPG           11       23.1         .531         .153         .061

 

The numbers are scary as to just how much his game falls off when he is not getting big minutes. A 35% drop in minutes makes for 40% drop off in his PTS/MIN, a 70% drop off in his AST/MIN, and a 26% increase in his TO/MIN.

To me that signals a guy that still doesn't get the game mentally. The drop off isn't a little it's huge and goes to show just how inconsistent he is.

Sorry, in terms of versatility, clutch play, overall defensive capabilities, leadership on the court and in the locker room, and as an overall entity on the team Allen will never replace Posey.

Not everything that can happen on a basketball is measured in stats.

But if you want some how about this:


                                               Pts    Min      FG%    FT%   3PT% Reb     Stl         Ast      TO
Tony's Career Average       7.4    18.8    .47     .756    .299     2.6       1.03     1.30    1.39 
Tony's 2008-09 Average    8.4    19.6    .474   .742    .083      2.2      1.30      1.0      1.34


So if stats are what you want then after looking at these stats, are you going to tell me that Tony Allen is really any different than the Tony Allen that has been on this team for the last 4 years? The numbers are almost identical except for a bit of a peak here and a valley there. Tony is what Tony is and that is a decent sub.

And until he does anything in the playoffs of value for this team I really hope all the Posey comparisons will end because when it comes down to it, last year when Doc needed something off the bench, Posey was the one to play 25 MPG in the playoffs and Tony Allen was having trouble getting on the floor when the Celtics were up by 20.

Tony hasn't come that far in a year, he simply has returned to what he has always been.

[moiso]

Yeah he has really been the same player when healthy since we drafted him. I like what he does for our bench with his energy and attack mode, but people, even Tommy, have selective memory about TA.  He NEVER was a good shooter, and he wasn't better as a rookie or in that 07 stretch than he is now.

[cordobes]

This sport is not measured in its entirety by statistical creations. People need to get it through their heads that there isn't a number that measures when a pass goes to the wrong guy, when a guy falls for the up-fake, etc.

  It's not all stats, but that doesn't mean they aren't useful or  meaningful. Do you think that NBA coaches/GMs eschew them? They use stats and they keep more detailed stats than what we see.

Precisely. Most of the stats available for the public eye can be very misleading.

Anyway, the problem with TA averages is that they can't translate his biggest flaws: unreliability and inconsistency. The stats are decent, the game logs boxscores give a different picture and watching him play from game to game an even more different one.

[2short]

Just as Posey's contributions last year have taken to mythical proportions, I think that 07 stretch for tony has taken mythic proportions.  I really believe he is playing just as well now- the only difference is he's not playing 45 minutes and taking 20 shots/game and driving to the hoop anytime he pleases now.  He's meshing with the team better now, and his decision making is much better.

Couldn't have said it better myself.  Tony's ceiling is a bit higher.  I feel he can be a starter on some teams in the nba and a good sub for many teams.  Its his decision making ability that I think will keep him from being much better.  His list is that, ball handling outside shooting.  His d & energy are great, he's understanding his role more.  Cousy broadcasting (why was he fired?) hit on the head when he said tony has to be a 2 (or 3?) dribble driver.  That is the key to his game, he isn't tim hardaway with the dribble!
My thought is if pruitt, giddens or walker step up, tony's trade value will be higher because of good play he possibly will be traded next year unless he shows even more improvement.

[SalmonAndMashedPotatoes]

I firmly believe Tony's main problem is believing in the same stuff that many here do: that he can be much better, that he should be more aggressive, etc. That's a big part of his inconsistency.

He'd be a much more effective player if his game was more "humble".

'Humble' has ABSOLUTELY nothing to do with it; that's your own amateur psychological interpretation based on assumptions you've made about his game.  TA's problem, since the injury, is confidence.  He'd be a much more effective player if didn't get down on himself when he makes a mistake.

[SalmonAndMashedPotatoes]

This sport is not measured in its entirety by statistical creations. People need to get it through their heads that there isn't a number that measures when a pass goes to the wrong guy, when a guy falls for the up-fake, etc.

Nobody's suggesting that TA brings as many as the intangibles as Posey did....all people are suggesting is that statistically he's bringing more points, steals, and blocks than Posey did last season in about 5 less minutes per game.  If you want to reframe the argument into "is Tony bringing as many intangibles as Posey did last season," I don't think one single person is going to argue with you.  TA still has a way to go in the intangibles department, but it's safe to say he'll improve with age and experience like most players.

People in the anti-Tony crowd need to understand that reframing the argument to fit your preferred conclusion is extremely maddening.  Yes, stats only tell part of the story.  But don't ignore that part like it doesn't exist, or explain away those stats because they don't come with intangibles.  The thing with intangibles is this: they're intangible!!!!  That makes them very difficult to speak intelligently about and thus makes them the ultimate go-to move when a poster doesn't want to debate the issue at hand    

[BballTim]

Also, the revisionism about Posey is becoming annoying. Kobe had a quarter in the Finals where he only scored from technical free-throws, remember? Who was guarding him?

  But one quarter doesn't a playoffs make. Posey wasn't bad, he was easily our best bench player, but that's all. He didn't shut down every player he faced. He didn't hit every late game shot he took.

[cordobes]

What's intangible about spacing, screening, entry post passes, the versatility to switch on screens, size, taking care of the ball, clutchness/unclutchness, game-to-game consistency, etc.?

I can't find a good reason why would anyone struggle to find very difficult to speak intelligently about those traits.

[cordobes]

Also, the revisionism about Posey is becoming annoying. Kobe had a quarter in the Finals where he only scored from technical free-throws, remember? Who was guarding him?

  But one quarter doesn't a playoffs make. Posey wasn't bad, he was easily our best bench player, but that's all. He didn't shut down every player he faced. He didn't hit every late game shot he took.

Sure, but like others have already said in this thread, I also don't understand who said that he shut down every player he faced or hit every late game shot he took. What's exactly your point?

[nickagneta]

Also, the revisionism about Posey is becoming annoying. Kobe had a quarter in the Finals where he only scored from technical free-throws, remember? Who was guarding him?

  But one quarter doesn't a playoffs make. Posey wasn't bad, he was easily our best bench player, but that's all. He didn't shut down every player he faced. He didn't hit every late game shot he took.

Sure, but like others have already said in this thread, I also don't understand who said that he shut down every player he faced or hit every late game shot he took. What's exactly your point?

Exactly!! What I said was that he did those things. Every minute of every game, no. But there were times when he did shut down the players I mentioned. Lest we forget those players are great and will get the better of even the best defenders. But when Posey was on those players, he shut them down for periods of time and he made a few very clutch shots for this team.

Tony hasn't ever done that in the playoff forum.

And if you want to get technical about the verbiage used Tony is replicating to increasing Posey's production but he's not replacing everything Posey brought to this team. Stats are great but not the end all be all.

When it comes down to the fourth quarter of a game 7 can Tony be trusted to take the right shot, play the right defense, make the correct switch, not force his game and help make the other players on the court better? That is a question that needs to be answered because that will be what he is "replacing".

Tony has made up a small difference in what this team lost when Posey signed elsewhere but Rondo, Perk, Powe, and Baby have as well and that is why this team is better. Tony hasn't replaced Posey's production, he has enhanced his own which has contributed to nullifying the loss of Posey.

Now what needs to be seen is if he and the others can continue that type of play when it matters most. That will ultimately determine if this team was able to replace James Posey.

[BballTim]

Also, the revisionism about Posey is becoming annoying. Kobe had a quarter in the Finals where he only scored from technical free-throws, remember? Who was guarding him?

  But one quarter doesn't a playoffs make. Posey wasn't bad, he was easily our best bench player, but that's all. He didn't shut down every player he faced. He didn't hit every late game shot he took.

Sure, but like others have already said in this thread, I also don't understand who said that he shut down every player he faced or hit every late game shot he took. What's exactly your point?

  What exactly was the point of your "revisionist" statement? If it wasn't at all directed at me then I have no point.

[Chris]

The chances of Bill Walker ever being as good defensively as Tony Allen are basically non-existent, I think.

I disagree.  The chances of Walker ever being as good defensively as Tony Allen could be if he learned to focus are pretty low, but  as long as Tony continues to miss his assignments and let his men constantly beat him backdoor, Walker can certainly catch up to him.

Meh.. he doesn't have the lateral quickness or the mobility to be nearly as good as Allen as an individual defender. I was not factoring Allen's mental lapses though, but I don't think that changes things so much. And Walker has the exact same kind of lapses, even in a more severe degree.

You're probably right.  I just can't help but speak up whenever anyone infers that Tony Allen is a great defender. 

[moiso]

No way could walker ever be the defender that TA is.  I don't see much foot speed and quickness from walker at all.  He seems very slow compared to 3's and definitely 2's.  Giddens, on the other hand, has the potential to be a great defender.