Is TA Right Now as Good as He will Ever Get?!

[crownsy]

No. I think his jump shot can improve so he isn't at his limit yet. I would also say that he has been our best bench player. I also don't think you can expect bench players to be super consistent. NBA players hit shots in spurts - so with less time the numbers they put up will be inconsistent.

Leon Powe has been our best bench player closely followed if not tied by House. TA is a distant third.

  Based on what? Tony's the best defender out of the three. They all score equally per minute but Tony's been the most consistent scorer of them. Leon averages more turnovers than Tony, who A) has only had more than 2 turnovers twice all year (3 both times) and B) only has 1 more turnover than steals for the year. He's not perfect, and sometimes he tries to do too much but he hasn't been bad.

Based on a couple things. Tony hasn't been consistent at all. He has games where he is putting up numbers, but a third of his games he has 4 pts or less. A negative assist to turnover ratio is not good. He continues to lower his head and commit charges. He is still well deserving of Turnover Tony.

Powe on the other hand doesn't have the same control of his touches TA does. He has to wait for someone to drop the ball down into him, or collect the offensive rebounds. When given the ball down low he has been very consistent all year. TA takes almost twice as many shots a game as Leon does. He should score more.

House has gotten better and better as the season progresses with his fg% for a guy who shoots half of his shots from 3, 50% + is very good. He has a 2-1 turnover to assist ratio. He brings the whole package. Energy, hustle, big shots.

I did not say TA doesn't add value out there. He does. I just think that he is the third most important person on that second unit. If we didn't have him we'd be in trouble many of the games. I just think this is what you get with TA. Some good plays, some maddening ones.

while i'm no TA fan either, but if were going to talk consistancy, Leon isn't anything close to that either. Leon has been just as up and down as TA has.

also, how does leon get the "hits a big shots" label? leon dunks put backs. Thats about it. He has a developing low post game, but its not very good yet.

Leon brings a ton, and he's one of my bench binky's, but consistant he is not. Hustle consistant? sure, but so's TA. Production consistant? not so much for either guy.

TA hasen't been stellar, but he's been pretty good. The bench is always going to be up and down, thats why thier the bench. But all our guys, TA, house, Leon, Baby, and scal at least play hard when thier in and give good effort on defense. Thats all your really looking for out of a bench in my eyes.

[EJPLAYA]

Tony is what he is and will never be more than what he is. He had one magnificent 16-18 game stretch late in 06 and early in 07. Other than that, is he really markably better than the kid we first saw out of college? I don't think so. He will be a serviceable role player his entire career who will give you as many boneheaded plays as highlight reel suff and be extremely inconsistent. He is what he is. A Posey replacement, he isn't.

  Of course he's not a Posey replacement. James carried the team on his back all the way to the finals last year. Don't you remember all of the posts last summer claiming that the Celts would be a much weaker team without Posey? We're lucky to be in contention for the playoffs without him.

So are you claiming that it is Tony Allen that is the reason that the Celtics are so much better than many thought? Because if you asked me I would say Tony Allen is playing a bit better than last year but it has been pretty much better chemistry between the Big Three and the exceptional increase in the quality of play of Rondo and Perk that is the reason for the Celtics success this year.

And as for him being a Posey replacement, come talk to me when Tony is shutting down Kobe, Odom, LeBron, Smith, Johnson, Prince and McDyess in the playoffs while hitting late game clutch fourth quarter three's in pressure situations. Posey was a leader, was clutch and was extremely versatile, words no one uses when describing Tony Allen.

Allen is playing a "bit" better than last year? His FG% has jumped nearly 4%. He is averaging less turnovers in more minutes. He is averaging nearly 1/2 a steal more. And when did Posey clamp down on Kobe and Lebron? If I'm not mistaken, Joe Johnson and Josh Smith had some huge games in the playoffs as well.

And who's claiming that Tony Allen is the reason that the Celtics are better than everyone thought they would be? He is part of the reason, big distinction. No one is expecting him to be this franchise changing player. He has been an excellent sixth man and that is his ceiling. He has been better than Posey for sure through one quarter of a season.

And he is still wildly inconsistent and he is still dribbling into a pack of defenders with his head down and he is still getting burned bad on backdoor plays and he is still fouling three point shooters by being head faked and he still is not a good outside shooter he still has more turnovers than he does assists and when he doesn't get more than 20 minutes playing time his per minute stats drop of radically.

Here's some interesting stats to look at from this year on comparing the difference in his play between when he gets 20+MPG and when he get >20MPG:

 

                            G       MPG       PTS/M       A/M         TO/M

>20MPG           11       15.1         .323         .047         .077

+20MPG           11       23.1         .531         .153         .061

 

The numbers are scary as to just how much his game falls off when he is not getting big minutes. A 35% drop in minutes makes for 40% drop off in his PTS/MIN, a 70% drop off in his AST/MIN, and a 26% increase in his TO/MIN.

To me that signals a guy that still doesn't get the game mentally. The drop off isn't a little it's huge and goes to show just how inconsistent he is.

Sorry, in terms of versatility, clutch play, overall defensive capabilities, leadership on the court and in the locker room, and as an overall entity on the team Allen will never replace Posey.

Not everything that can happen on a basketball is measured in stats.

But if you want some how about this:


                                               Pts    Min      FG%    FT%   3PT% Reb     Stl         Ast      TO
Tony's Career Average       7.4    18.8    .47     .756    .299     2.6       1.03     1.30    1.39 
Tony's 2008-09 Average    8.4    19.6    .474   .742    .083      2.2      1.30      1.0      1.34


So if stats are what you want then after looking at these stats, are you going to tell me that Tony Allen is really any different than the Tony Allen that has been on this team for the last 4 years? The numbers are almost identical except for a bit of a peak here and a valley there. Tony is what Tony is and that is a decent sub.

And until he does anything in the playoffs of value for this team I really hope all the Posey comparisons will end because when it comes down to it, last year when Doc needed something off the bench, Posey was the one to play 25 MPG in the playoffs and Tony Allen was having trouble getting on the floor when the Celtics were up by 20.

Tony hasn't come that far in a year, he simply has returned to what he has always been.

Very well Done Nick. Tp to you. This is basically what my point has been. TA has been a little better this year than last, but not really by much. He really has just turned back into a less athletic version of what he used to be. Great players stats improve each year as they get smarter in the game. TA's haven't really ever changed. That is why he will always be a bech player. He does some things well, like defense. He is bad at other things like ball handling, shooting from the perimeter. Committing charges. Those are the types of things that should have improved. They haven't. TA could have spent a good portion of his time away working on his jumper. He didn't. He is what he is I think. Some good skills. Some poor ones. Not very bright out there. What is that old definition of insanity?! Doing the same thing over and over and each time expecting different results. TA's game kind of reminds me of that.

[crownsy]

Tony is what he is and will never be more than what he is. He had one magnificent 16-18 game stretch late in 06 and early in 07. Other than that, is he really markably better than the kid we first saw out of college? I don't think so. He will be a serviceable role player his entire career who will give you as many boneheaded plays as highlight reel suff and be extremely inconsistent. He is what he is. A Posey replacement, he isn't.

  Of course he's not a Posey replacement. James carried the team on his back all the way to the finals last year. Don't you remember all of the posts last summer claiming that the Celts would be a much weaker team without Posey? We're lucky to be in contention for the playoffs without him.

So are you claiming that it is Tony Allen that is the reason that the Celtics are so much better than many thought? Because if you asked me I would say Tony Allen is playing a bit better than last year but it has been pretty much better chemistry between the Big Three and the exceptional increase in the quality of play of Rondo and Perk that is the reason for the Celtics success this year.

And as for him being a Posey replacement, come talk to me when Tony is shutting down Kobe, Odom, LeBron, Smith, Johnson, Prince and McDyess in the playoffs while hitting late game clutch fourth quarter three's in pressure situations. Posey was a leader, was clutch and was extremely versatile, words no one uses when describing Tony Allen.

Allen is playing a "bit" better than last year? His FG% has jumped nearly 4%. He is averaging less turnovers in more minutes. He is averaging nearly 1/2 a steal more. And when did Posey clamp down on Kobe and Lebron? If I'm not mistaken, Joe Johnson and Josh Smith had some huge games in the playoffs as well.

And who's claiming that Tony Allen is the reason that the Celtics are better than everyone thought they would be? He is part of the reason, big distinction. No one is expecting him to be this franchise changing player. He has been an excellent sixth man and that is his ceiling. He has been better than Posey for sure through one quarter of a season.

And he is still wildly inconsistent and he is still dribbling into a pack of defenders with his head down and he is still getting burned bad on backdoor plays and he is still fouling three point shooters by being head faked and he still is not a good outside shooter he still has more turnovers than he does assists and when he doesn't get more than 20 minutes playing time his per minute stats drop of radically.

Here's some interesting stats to look at from this year on comparing the difference in his play between when he gets 20+MPG and when he get >20MPG:

 

                            G       MPG       PTS/M       A/M         TO/M

>20MPG           11       15.1         .323         .047         .077

+20MPG           11       23.1         .531         .153         .061

 

The numbers are scary as to just how much his game falls off when he is not getting big minutes. A 35% drop in minutes makes for 40% drop off in his PTS/MIN, a 70% drop off in his AST/MIN, and a 26% increase in his TO/MIN.

To me that signals a guy that still doesn't get the game mentally. The drop off isn't a little it's huge and goes to show just how inconsistent he is.

Sorry, in terms of versatility, clutch play, overall defensive capabilities, leadership on the court and in the locker room, and as an overall entity on the team Allen will never replace Posey.

Not everything that can happen on a basketball is measured in stats.

But if you want some how about this:


                                               Pts    Min      FG%    FT%   3PT% Reb     Stl         Ast      TO
Tony's Career Average       7.4    18.8    .47     .756    .299     2.6       1.03     1.30    1.39 
Tony's 2008-09 Average    8.4    19.6    .474   .742    .083      2.2      1.30      1.0      1.34


So if stats are what you want then after looking at these stats, are you going to tell me that Tony Allen is really any different than the Tony Allen that has been on this team for the last 4 years? The numbers are almost identical except for a bit of a peak here and a valley there. Tony is what Tony is and that is a decent sub.

And until he does anything in the playoffs of value for this team I really hope all the Posey comparisons will end because when it comes down to it, last year when Doc needed something off the bench, Posey was the one to play 25 MPG in the playoffs and Tony Allen was having trouble getting on the floor when the Celtics were up by 20.

Tony hasn't come that far in a year, he simply has returned to what he has always been.

Very well Done Nick. Tp to you. This is basically what my point has been. TA has been a little better this year than last, but not really by much. He really has just turned back into a less athletic version of what he used to be. Great players stats improve each year as they get smarter in the game. TA's haven't really ever changed. That is why he will always be a bech player. He does some things well, like defense. He is bad at other things like ball handling, shooting from the perimeter. Committing charges. Those are the types of things that should have improved. They haven't. TA could have spent a good portion of his time away working on his jumper. He didn't. He is what he is I think. Some good skills. Some poor ones. Not very bright out there. What is that old definition of insanity?! Doing the same thing over and over and each time expecting different results. TA's game kind of reminds me of that.

but do we really need more than that out of him? its not like were paying him the full MLE. He's a pretty good bench player, 1.5 is good for that in my eyes.

I think alot of the time people expect to much out of the bench. There is a reason they are bench players and not starters. All you can ask is effort every night (which alot of benchs don't get out of thier guys, we do) willingness to play defense (see previous) and trying to hold the margin while the starters rest more often than they give up runs.

[nickagneta]

I think alot of the time people expect to much out of the bench. There is a reason they are bench players and not starters. All you can ask is effort every night (which alot of benchs don't get out of thier guys, we do) willingness to play defense (see previous) and trying to hold the margin while the starters rest more often than they give up runs.

TP4U crownsy, well said.

[BballTim]

And he is still wildly inconsistent and he is still dribbling into a pack of defenders with his head down and he is still getting burned bad on backdoor plays and he is still fouling three point shooters by being head faked and he still is not a good outside shooter he still has more turnovers than he does assists and when he doesn't get more than 20 minutes playing time his per minute stats drop of radically.

Here's some interesting stats to look at from this year oncomparing the difference in his play between when he gets 20+MPG and when he get >20MPG:

 

                            G       MPG       PTS/M       A/M         TO/M

>20MPG           11       15.1         .323         .047         .077

+20MPG           11       23.1         .531         .153         .061

 

The numbers are scary as to just how much his game falls off when he is not getting big minutes. A 35% drop in minutes makes for 40% drop off in his PTS/MIN, a 70% drop off in his AST/MIN, and a 26% increase in his TO/MIN.

  It's likely that you have things backwards. Does Tony play better when he gets more minutes or does he get more minutes when he plays well? In the games that he plays a lot, is it true that his numbers suck for a while and then skyrocket? Or is it (more likely) the case where, on the games where Tony's doing well in his first 15 minutes, Doc leaves him in longer?

And until he does anything in the playoffs of value for this team I really hope all the Posey comparisons will end because when it comes down to it, last year when Doc needed something off the bench, Posey was the one to play 25 MPG in the playoffs and Tony Allen was having trouble getting on the floor when the Celtics were up by 20.

  Sure. As long as we also stop with any "Tony probably won't do well in the playoffs talk". On this blog, the naysayers always rule in the offseason. Any negative statement about any or all of the Celts is seen as a fact until proven otherwise.

[Sweet17]

So if stats are what you want then after looking at these stats, are you going to tell me that Tony Allen is really any different than the Tony Allen that has been on this team for the last 4 years? The numbers are almost identical except for a bit of a peak here and a valley there. Tony is what Tony is and that is a decent sub.

It's not really fair to lump in TA's rookie year as well as his injured year and claim we know exactly what we are going to get out of the guy. He has some untapped potential. It's actually pretty impressive what he has done shooting as poorly as he has thus far..

[moiso]

this is is 4th year, and we know he can't shoot well for his position, know he is good at attacking the rim, good at defense, a little shaky as ballhandler... I think we can finally say we know what we have.

[EJPLAYA]

but do we really need more than that out of him? its not like were paying him the full MLE. He's a pretty good bench player, 1.5 is good for that in my eyes.

I think alot of the time people expect to much out of the bench. There is a reason they are bench players and not starters. All you can ask is effort every night (which alot of benchs don't get out of thier guys, we do) willingness to play defense (see previous) and trying to hold the margin while the starters rest more often than they give up runs.


[/quote]

I agree for the most part. That has been basically my point all along. I think he has leveled off. Won't get much better because he just isn't that smart of a ball player to be able to do so. He doesn't seem to want to put in the effort in the offseason to improve his skills, so he is what he is. What do I do think needs to change some though is his consistency. I think he goes through stretches where he just kind of fades away out there and doesn't do the little things on offense to help the team unless he has the ball in his hands. I don't recall him flying around the court setting picks, working to get someone else a shot. I am not saying he doesn't ever do that, but I know House does. I know BBD does. It's all the time. I would like to see him stop lowering his head when he goes to the basket which would eliminate most of his charges. If he'd do that he'd help this team more. I don't know what it is, but I just don't feel like our bench is doing as good a job of maintaining that lead like last year. I agree that even is a positive result when they are out there. I know he's not to blame solely, but many on here think he's the leader of that unit, so he gets a lot of it. Especially when he is playing out of control. I do think we tend to overstate his defensive ability as well. He isn't the same guy as he was pre-injury, but he is solid. Nice bench player, but he should be better.

[celts55]

Personally I think TA's biggest problem is Doc Rivers. I'm not bashing Doc, but the fact remains he sould be tell Tony to give up the ball. With House out I saw doc before the game saying if Pruitt didn't work out he'd have TA handle the ball! Let's face it, he is not is any way shapr or form a point guard. He puts his head down and goes. The coaching staff should make it clear to him that unless it's a breakaway he is not to bring up the ball. It's great to make a steal, but when you turn the ball right back over, it's not so great.
I think he has some excellent ability, but must learn to play within his game. He should never take more than 2 dribbles going to the hole. Play D, Slash, pass and he'll be fine.

[winsomme]

Tony is what he is and will never be more than what he is. He had one magnificent 16-18 game stretch late in 06 and early in 07. Other than that, is he really markably better than the kid we first saw out of college? I don't think so. He will be a serviceable role player his entire career who will give you as many boneheaded plays as highlight reel suff and be extremely inconsistent. He is what he is. A Posey replacement, he isn't.

  Of course he's not a Posey replacement. James carried the team on his back all the way to the finals last year. Don't you remember all of the posts last summer claiming that the Celts would be a much weaker team without Posey? We're lucky to be in contention for the playoffs without him.

i'm not sure what the majority of people who wanted Posey back were thinking at the time of trying to sign him, but for me it was having or not having him in the playoffs....not the regular season.

as i have posted before, i still think we have a hole at the backup SF spot and continue to hope that we will sign someone there that does similar things to Pose...

as for Posey's inconsistency in the playoffs, i would say that was for the most part in the first two series when the whole team was Jekyll and Hyde-like home and away.

missing Posey is not an indictment of TA IMO. TA does a lot of things that we need off the bench - including attacking the basket and playing aggressive D, but he can't reliably hit the three or move over to the PF to play small-ball...the things that Posey did...not a criticism of TA, just a different skill-set.

[nickagneta]

  Sure. As long as we also stop with any "Tony probably won't do well in the playoffs talk". On this blog, the naysayers always rule in the offseason. Any negative statement about any or all of the Celts is seen as a fact until proven otherwise.

That's fine with me. I never said that Tony couldn't do it in the playoffs, just that he hasn't yet, though you are right some have said such things. This will really be Tony's proving year. If he can play smart basketball in the playoffs and be a positive factor there and not a negative one then he will have made up for a bunch of what we lost in James Posey, but until then, he really hasn't.

[crownsy]

Tony is what he is and will never be more than what he is. He had one magnificent 16-18 game stretch late in 06 and early in 07. Other than that, is he really markably better than the kid we first saw out of college? I don't think so. He will be a serviceable role player his entire career who will give you as many boneheaded plays as highlight reel suff and be extremely inconsistent. He is what he is. A Posey replacement, he isn't.

  Of course he's not a Posey replacement. James carried the team on his back all the way to the finals last year. Don't you remember all of the posts last summer claiming that the Celts would be a much weaker team without Posey? We're lucky to be in contention for the playoffs without him.

i'm not sure what the majority of people who wanted Posey back were thinking at the time of trying to sign him, but for me it was having or not having him in the playoffs....not the regular season.

as i have posted before, i still think we have a hole at the backup SF spot and continue to hope that we will sign someone there that does similar things to Pose...

as for Posey's inconsistency in the playoffs, i would say that was for the most part in the first two series when the whole team was Jekyll and Hyde-like home and away.

missing Posey is not an indictment of TA IMO. TA does a lot of things that we need off the bench - including attacking the basket and playing aggressive D, but he can't reliably hit the three or move over to the PF to play small-ball...the things that Posey did...not a criticism of TA, just a different skill-set.

alot of people were predicting more than just missing him in the playoffs. I distinctly remeber a gloom and doom thread after our bench was clear that predicted we'd struggle to win 55 games without james.

[wdleehi]

What worries me most about TA, posters talking about how he is almost back in pre-injury form. 

Wasn't that his rookie year? 


I am sure he will improve, but I don't think it will be a huge improvement at this point.  The mental mistakes are just to many for someone who has been in the league this long.

[EJPLAYA]

  Sure. As long as we also stop with any "Tony probably won't do well in the playoffs talk". On this blog, the naysayers always rule in the offseason. Any negative statement about any or all of the Celts is seen as a fact until proven otherwise.

That's fine with me. I never said that Tony couldn't do it in the playoffs, just that he hasn't yet, though you are right some have said such things. This will really be Tony's proving year. If he can play smart basketball in the playoffs and be a positive factor there and not a negative one then he will have made up for a bunch of what we lost in James Posey, but until then, he really hasn't.

I'll go on record and say it Nick! IMO TA won't do it in the playoffs. I think Doc agrees as well. That is why he played very little in the playoffs last year. He went down to 2.5 min a game with 14 DNP's. It is clear to everyone including Doc that TA's production out there on the court in crucial situations is a complete unknown. He isn't a bright player and is so sparadic you can't risk him being out there. I would be very surprised if Danny and Doc didn't discuss this offseason as Posey signed with NO the idea of having TA through the regular season, and hoping someone out there lets go a reasonably solid veteran they can pick up for the playoff run. That or hope he looks better and can make a trade part way through. I need to see a LOT more consistency between now and then to have any confidence in that changing. 1/4 of the way through all we see is a LITTLE improvement with more of the same inconsistency. Past performace doesn't guarantee future results, but it IS the best indicator.

[wdleehi]

  Sure. As long as we also stop with any "Tony probably won't do well in the playoffs talk". On this blog, the naysayers always rule in the offseason. Any negative statement about any or all of the Celts is seen as a fact until proven otherwise.

That's fine with me. I never said that Tony couldn't do it in the playoffs, just that he hasn't yet, though you are right some have said such things. This will really be Tony's proving year. If he can play smart basketball in the playoffs and be a positive factor there and not a negative one then he will have made up for a bunch of what we lost in James Posey, but until then, he really hasn't.

I have question how he will fit playing with the starters more as the linup usually shrinks in the playoffs.