Wages of Wins Analysis of Miles/Celtics

[Vermont Green]

“Two doctors said Darius had the worst microfracture injury they had ever seen,” Pritchard said on an Oregonlive.com blog this week. “They would never have him play basketball and the odds of having knee replacement surgery is high. I hear that, and as a general manager, I didn’t want it on my conscience – that I had a kid have to go through a knee replacement surgery. That’s a pretty major surgery. They saw (two bones) and replace (the knee). It’s a bad deal.”

In a story posted April 14 on the Portland Tribune’s Web site, Pritchard said, “The doctors had actually said, ‘If you were my son, I’d never have you pick up a basketball again.’ I’m the kind of GM (that) I wouldn’t want that on my head that he ever had to have knee replacement.”

That could have been Pritchard attempting to scare off other GMs, but taking it at face value, it sounds pretty bad (and certainly would explain why NBA doctors -- who weren't paid by the Trailblazers -- declared his career to be over.

Did Danny have a medical exam as part of the signing?  I didn't hear anything about it but I would think they had someone take a very close look at the current state of Miles' knee.  It just doesn't seem likely that Danny would offer even a non-gauranteed contract if a doctor told him the same thing that Pritchard claims he was told.  Don't get me wrong, I think it may be a tall order to expect Miles to be "OK" but I am also not buying all of the doom and gloom that seems to be out there. 

I suspect the knee is somewhere between "fully healed" as Miles is saying and on the verge of total collapse as Pritchard is suggesting.  I would also think that Danny did get a full current medical report that that it was reasonably favorable.  Danny seems like a "do your homework" kind of guy.  I don't have any way to know that Danny did his homework though of course but that is the basis of my opinion that the knee is not on the verge of total collapse as I have nothing else to go on. 

I feel it is about 50-50 that Miles makes it out of camp.  It is not the end of the the Celtics' season if he doesn't make the team though.

[guava_wrench]

What I think though is that if Miles can play to a level of an average SF, that will be fine.  That may be a big if though.  His knee may be so bad that he can only play once a week or something.  If he can't, we might still be OK but we would need a couple other "ifs" to come through.

I doubt very much that Miles will be playing at the level of an average small forward.  John Hollinger gives a PER of 15.0 to the average player.  Only once in his career did Miles have a PER of over 15.0; his last season was a 12.5.  Thus, I think it's fair to say that even prior to his injury, Miles was an average player, or slightly below average.

From that baseline, you're adding an absolutely devastating knee injury that multiple doctors declared to be career ending.  Miles has also added a lot of weight, isn't in playing shape by his own admission, and is rusty from not having NBA basketball in 2 1/2 seasons.

It would literally take a miracle for Miles to contribute at the level of an average SF; to do so, he'd have to be *better* than when he left.  I just don't see that happening.

What was Posey's PER? Did Posey qualify as an average SF?

[Sweet17]

I doubt very much that Miles will be playing at the level of an average small forward.  John Hollinger gives a PER of 15.0 to the average player.  Only once in his career did Miles have a PER of over 15.0; his last season was a 12.5.  Thus, I think it's fair to say that even prior to his injury, Miles was an average player, or slightly below average.

Really your getting wrapped up in ridiculous negativity. Posey sported an under 15.0 Per last year AND a negative PER differential. <g> If Per 15 = average then Perkins is below average as well. <g> PER is nothing more then a glorified stat count. Let's not get carried away with its value. For what this teams need a healthy Miles would be fantastic.