Wages of Wins Analysis of Miles/Celtics

[Vermont Green]

I am not sure if this has been posted before but I stumbled upon it today.
http://dberri.wordpress.com/2008/08/25/the-miles-file/
I think the analysis is fair.  Berri picks the Lakers due to Bynum coming back.

What I think though is that if Miles can play to a level of an average SF, that will be fine.  That may be a big if though.  His knee may be so bad that he can only play once a week or something.  If he can't, we might still be OK but we would need a couple other "ifs" to come through.

I also think that any historical analysis to project the contribution of Paddy'O is irrelavent.  I trust the judgment of Ainge and the scouts enough to have seen enough in him that he can be an alright back-up center, better in fact than Pollard and PJ (yes, PJ, I don't think PJ was all that great last year).  O'Bryant's contribution is another "if" though.

Then we have the rookies.  It is interesting that Powe and BBD actually contributed in their rookie years and combined last year pretty well.  It may turn out that Giddens and Walker form a similar kind of 1-2 punch to work against different kinds of match-ups and collectively, make a needed contribution (assuming Miles bombs out).  Enen then, there is still no room on the 12 man roster for Pruitt which would be a shame.

All this considered, I can't see the Celtics being the favorite to win the championship but I think they will be right in the hunt with a realistic shot.

[Amir]

Cant say I agree with you on PJ. He is a huge loss. Without him there's no banner 17 in the rafters.

[Vermont Green]

Cant say I agree with you on PJ. He is a huge loss. Without him there's no banner 17 in the rafters.

I know I am in the minority on this but PJ was slow and couldn't defend without fouling.  He did hit a few shots that were important he can be replaced.  We won 66 games essentially without him.

[indeedproceed]

Cant say I agree with you on PJ. He is a huge loss. Without him there's no banner 17 in the rafters.

I know I am in the minority on this but PJ was slow and couldn't defend without fouling.  He did hit a few shots that were important he can be replaced.  We won 66 games essentially without him.

Yeah but you don't add PJ for his february contributions, you add him for the playoffs. He was irreplaceable there.

[BballTim]

Cant say I agree with you on PJ. He is a huge loss. Without him there's no banner 17 in the rafters.

I know I am in the minority on this but PJ was slow and couldn't defend without fouling.  He did hit a few shots that were important he can be replaced.  We won 66 games essentially without him.

Yeah but you don't add PJ for his february contributions, you add him for the playoffs. He was irreplaceable there.

  Irreplaceable to a team with no backup big taller than Posey who can jump at all.

  We probably wouldn't have won the title without Sam Cassell. That doesn't make him irreplaceable, or even good.

[Roy Hobbs]

What I think though is that if Miles can play to a level of an average SF, that will be fine.  That may be a big if though.  His knee may be so bad that he can only play once a week or something.  If he can't, we might still be OK but we would need a couple other "ifs" to come through.

I doubt very much that Miles will be playing at the level of an average small forward.  John Hollinger gives a PER of 15.0 to the average player.  Only once in his career did Miles have a PER of over 15.0; his last season was a 12.5.  Thus, I think it's fair to say that even prior to his injury, Miles was an average player, or slightly below average.

From that baseline, you're adding an absolutely devastating knee injury that multiple doctors declared to be career ending.  Miles has also added a lot of weight, isn't in playing shape by his own admission, and is rusty from not having NBA basketball in 2 1/2 seasons.

It would literally take a miracle for Miles to contribute at the level of an average SF; to do so, he'd have to be *better* than when he left.  I just don't see that happening.

[incoherent]

Ha ha yes! I love the PJ bashing on this thread. 

[P2]

Cant say I agree with you on PJ. He is a huge loss. Without him there's no banner 17 in the rafters.

Yeah, yeah. And without Posey we don't win it, without House we don't win it, etc. What I can say is, we would've won it without PJ, because we had House and Posey.

It would literally take a miracle for Miles to contribute at the level of an average SF; to do so, he'd have to be *better* than when he left.  I just don't see that happening.

Amare says hi.

[Roy Hobbs]

It would literally take a miracle for Miles to contribute at the level of an average SF; to do so, he'd have to be *better* than when he left.  I just don't see that happening.

Amare says hi.

Um, well say hello back for me.  Now, what does that have to do with anything? 

1) Amare had a much less severe injury;

2) Amare was a much, much better player than Miles;

3) Amare didn't miss 2 1/2 seasons;

4) Amare was 24 when he began his comeback; Miles is 27.

5) It took Amare a full season to get back to the level he was pre-injury, and some people say he's not there yet.

In all honesty, I'm not sure what you were trying to suggest.  Amare was an extraordinarily skilled player and an All-NBA team member who missed slightly less than one full season due to injury.  Darius Miles was a below-average player who had an injury that was deemed career-ending, and which kept him out for over two and a half seasons.  The comparisons don't exactly fly off the page.

[brownbagger]

Have i missed something?Last i read Miles had 3 knee operations and declared never to play at this

level again by doctors.Did someone read somewhere some doctors have changed the verdict or status of

his knees.My question now is are there any legal ramifications attached to a player reentering the

NBA under those medical circumstances?Does the NBA becomes held responsible,say he is eventually

crippled for life,say if he reinjuies himself in the same areas?Does the NBA have any legal rules in

place to prevent players from coming back?

[Vermont Green]

Ha ha yes! I love the PJ bashing on this thread. 

I am not sure I get the point of this comment.  Some people believe that we wouldn't have won without PJ and that we absolutely need him back.  Others (including me) simply made comments that PJ really wasn't all that great and his contribution can be replaced.  I think he was very slow on defense in the playoffs and that led to him committing a lot of fouls.  He did stroke some nice shots when he was left all alone and otherwise did scrap and hustle to the best of his waning ability.

All of this is off the point of the original post which was an analysis of Miles and the Celtics by Berri and a chance to comment (nothing wrong with going a little off topic though).

As I said originally, I think it is a stretch to think that Miles can hold up night in and night out for a whole season and playoff run.  I don't know the medical details of his knee vs others such as Amare but people do come back from this.  Two years seems to be the time frame for full recovery and for Miles it has been more than 2 I think.  He still young and I doubt he has forgotten how to play.  Although he was able to score 20 at one point even without a good jump shot, that isn't what we need. We need consistency and at least an ability to score when that is what the defense if giving you.  Portland said somewhere that he couldn't practice 2 days in a row back when they had him.  That could still be the case.  There is no doubt that he is a ?-mark.  Even Danny can't judge how his knee will hold up (different than scouting say OBryant).

[brownbagger]

Ha ha yes! I love the PJ bashing on this thread. 

I am not sure I get the point of this comment.  Some people believe that we wouldn't have won without PJ and that we absolutely need him back.  Others (including me) simply made comments that PJ really wasn't all that great and his contribution can be replaced.  I think he was very slow on defense in the playoffs and that led to him committing a lot of fouls.  He did stroke some nice shots when he was left all alone and otherwise did scrap and hustle to the best of his waning ability.

All of this is off the point of the original post which was an analysis of Miles and the Celtics by Berri and a chance to comment (nothing wrong with going a little off topic though).

As I said originally, I think it is a stretch to think that Miles can hold up night in and night out for a whole season and playoff run.  I don't know the medical details of his knee vs others such as Amare but people do come back from this.  Two years seems to be the time frame for full recovery and for Miles it has been more than 2 I think.  He still young and I doubt he has forgotten how to play.  Although he was able to score 20 at one point even without a good jump shot, that isn't what we need. We need consistency and at least an ability to score when that is what the defense if giving you.  Portland said somewhere that he couldn't practice 2 days in a row back when they had him.  That could still be the case.  There is no doubt that he is a ?-mark.  Even Danny can't judge how his knee will hold up (different than scouting say OBryant).

So how many guys on the bench now we have to wait and see if their knees are going to hold up?

[Vermont Green]

So how many guys on the bench now we have to wait and see if their knees are going to hold up?

By my count Tony, Miles, Walker and maybe even Pierce have some questions about their knees.  Somehow I think you meant this figuratively and not literally.  Is your point that we have a lot of question marks on this team?  I am not sure anyone disagrees with that (certainly not me).  I just think that most of the question marks that many posters are fretting about are low enough on the Totem pole to be able to be fixed along the way if necessary.  If KG or PP blow out a knee, we are in big trouble.   If Tony Allen has a recurrence, it is a problem but of an altogether different magnitude and something that can be addressed midseason.

[Roy Hobbs]

I don't know the medical details of his knee vs others such as Amare but people do come back from this.  Two years seems to be the time frame for full recovery and for Miles it has been more than 2 I think. 

Well, if Miles makes it back, it will be unprecedented in the NBA.  He is attempting to become the first player to come back and play after being judged by NBA doctors to have suffered a career-ending injury.

Here's how Portland GM Kevin Pritchard described the injury:

“Two doctors said Darius had the worst microfracture injury they had ever seen,” Pritchard said on an Oregonlive.com blog this week. “They would never have him play basketball and the odds of having knee replacement surgery is high. I hear that, and as a general manager, I didn’t want it on my conscience – that I had a kid have to go through a knee replacement surgery. That’s a pretty major surgery. They saw (two bones) and replace (the knee). It’s a bad deal.”

In a story posted April 14 on the Portland Tribune’s Web site, Pritchard said, “The doctors had actually said, ‘If you were my son, I’d never have you pick up a basketball again.’ I’m the kind of GM (that) I wouldn’t want that on my head that he ever had to have knee replacement.”

That could have been Pritchard attempting to scare off other GMs, but taking it at face value, it sounds pretty bad (and certainly would explain why NBA doctors -- who weren't paid by the Trailblazers -- declared his career to be over.

[Cman]

What I think though is that if Miles can play to a level of an average SF, that will be fine.  That may be a big if though.  His knee may be so bad that he can only play once a week or something.  If he can't, we might still be OK but we would need a couple other "ifs" to come through.

I doubt very much that Miles will be playing at the level of an average small forward.  John Hollinger gives a PER of 15.0 to the average player.  Only once in his career did Miles have a PER of over 15.0; his last season was a 12.5.  Thus, I think it's fair to say that even prior to his injury, Miles was an average player, or slightly below average.

From that baseline, you're adding an absolutely devastating knee injury that multiple doctors declared to be career ending.  Miles has also added a lot of weight, isn't in playing shape by his own admission, and is rusty from not having NBA basketball in 2 1/2 seasons.

It would literally take a miracle for Miles to contribute at the level of an average SF; to do so, he'd have to be *better* than when he left.  I just don't see that happening.

I wouldn't be surprised if Miles doesn't make it past training camp.  If he does, though, he is still first in line to be cut if PJ Brown wants to come back in February...