Celticsblog Mock GM Press Conferences: Southwest Division

[Lucky17]

I'm late to the party and will need to edit as I go but I wanted to put something out:

Roster:

PF David Lee/ Chuck Hayes/ J.J. Hickson
SF Rudy Fernández/ Dorrell Wright/ Anthony Randolph/ Adrian Griffen
C Andrew Bynum/ Joel Anthony/ Richard Hendrix
SG Randy Foye/ Willie Green
PG Gilbert Arenas/ Russell Westbrook/ Goran Dragic

Outlook for the 2008-09 season and beyond:  A spoiler if not a contender, but let’s argue about it. Would be a competitor on Arenas and Bynum’s backs alone for the next eight years, but team's average age is only 24.3 years.

WalkerWiggle, you assembled an impressive cast of young and promising players. Some questions:

1. In a league that's been characterized as "eating its young," how concerned are you that you have no veterans (outside of Arenas and a journeyman Adrian Griffin) to impart wisdom to the rest of the team and help maintain emotional stability and consistent play during the course of a season?

2. I've no doubt that Bynum, Westbrook, and Fernandez will acquit themselves as far as making it in this league (whether they'll fall somewhere between rotation players or All-Stars is debatable, and impossible to answer right now). Your roster, however, comprises a lot of potential busts in Randolph, Dragic, and Joel Anthony, as well as players who've been in the league a few years and have not done much (Wright, Green). Are you at all concerned about expecting too much from some of these players?

3. How effective can a small-ball lineup be on defense, even with Thibodeau running the show?

[Redz]

Just had a little chuckle at the thought of an actual press conference with a reporter asking a serious question addressed a GM named Walker Wiggle 

[Lucky17]

Depth Chart/Roster:

PG: Chris Paul/Anthony Johnson/Mike James
SG: Jerry Stackhouse/Sasha Pavlovic//Derek Anderson
SF: Peja Stojakovic/Trenton Hassell/Eddie Jones
PF: Andrei Kirlikenko/Kenny Thomas/Darrell Arthur
 C: Ben Wallace/Lorenzen Wright/DeAndre Jordan

BigAl, it's been said before, but bears repeating: solid job of overhauling your original team. This is a possible playoff-caliber squad. Some questions:

1. Mike James, Jerry Stackhouse, Derek Anderson, Trenton Hassell, Eddie Jones, and Lorenzen Wright: how many minutes to you plan to play these players? After being "too young", are you concerned your team might be "too old"?

2. Are you worried about the lack of offense in your frontcourt?

[The Walker Wiggle]

I'm thinking that your back-court overall doesn't match up well with the Rockets (I really don't like Foye and Arenas at the back, Foye would get dominated by someone like Kobe or T-Mac in that position - probably even Martin), neither does your bench, which is why I see the Rockets taking it this year.

That's fair. I can respect your reasoning on all counts. (Although, I'm glad to see Gainesville, for one, shares my lowered opinion of Odom.) Memphis certainly gives up a lot of size at the 2/3 I can't argue that. We're putting a lot of pressure on Bynum in the paint, but believe he's up to the task. And the team otherwise will counter punch with tempo, strong ball handling and great penetrators. TP for giving me some thought out feedback. I appreciate it.

Maybe I at least got you to hedge off of "wins the division easily?" Fair warning, I'm sure Edgar will have something to say about that as well.

[The Walker Wiggle]

Just had a little chuckle at the thought of an actual press conference with a reporter asking a serious question addressed a GM named Walker Wiggle 

Not anything like the laugh you'd have upon seeing me do my namesake dance.

[JSD]

Honestly, I can't see the case being made for Bogut over Bynum. Oden has yet to play a professional game and missed a large part of his freshman season and yet went 12th in the draft. And, anyway, Bynum by all accounts is in on the road to a full recovery.

That aside. I encourage Bogut defenders to take another look at the numbers. Bynum shoots a far better percentage from the floor, 63% vs 51%, scores more than Bogut on a per minute basis: 13 points in 28 minutes vs 14 points in 34 minutes, he's a 70% FT shooter, while Bynum is a liability at the stripe shooting below 60%. Bynum grabs more offensive rebounds. Neither shoots the 3. So on what strength is Bogut a better offensive center? Yes, Andrew passes the ball better but not so well as to make up for the difference in scoring efficiency, rebounding, and impact on the floor (to say nothing of the huge difference in defense). Also worth nothing that their Assist/TO #s are close.

As far as Bogut's defense is concerned, he puts up decent offensive numbers and so do the centers he guards, as exhibited by a PER differential of +1.5. (I'll mention Bynum's differential again, for those who glossed over my press release and at the risk of over-hyping him because it's just so exciting. He's +10.4. Only eleven other NBA players have a differential great than +10, players like James, Bryant, Paul, Garnett and Howard...) Bynum is convincingly better on both ends and is three years younger.

I'm willing to hear the counter argument if it consist of anything more than "nah, I like Bogut better", but I'm very skeptical.

You are using numbers from 35 games last season, therefore skewed...

The true indication here is Career Vs. Career and right now its close...

Regardless, Overall you have a team full of players that have yet to do anything in this league.

- The Wizards performed better minus GA last season. not a true PG
- Bynum has not done a thing. (LA hype machine, talk about "fools gold")
- David Lee is a nice young role player on a team that wins 25 games annually
- Foye is a nice young player but undersized and coming off multiple injuries and has been diagnosed with situs inversus.
- Mediocre bench

You've assembled one of the poorest teams in the league for the "win now" category.

[The Walker Wiggle]

In a league that's been characterized as "eating its young," how concerned are you that you have no veterans (outside of Arenas and a journeyman Adrian Griffin) to impart wisdom to the rest of the team and help maintain emotional stability and consistent play during the course of a season?

First, thanks for the compliment Lucky. Right off, you've struck on my second greatest reservation - the first being injury concerns. It's the reason, I brought on Griffen, a player who's work ethic and professionalism I've loved since his days in Boston. But, I'd be far more comfortable adding another veteran, preferably one who'll play more meaningful minutes than Adrian. (It's something I was exploring prior to the first trade deadline.)

I will add that I consider David Lee and Chuck Hayes, both 25, great role models for the kids. While they're both young in their own right, they've played a lot of meaningful NBA minutes. Hayes was part of Houston's historic 22-game win streak. Lee never threw it in during the Thomas' years though many of his teammates did. Both epitomize preparation and aggressive physical play, which I'd like to see rub off.

2. I've no doubt that Bynum, Westbrook, and Fernandez will acquit themselves as far as making it in this league (whether they'll fall somewhere between rotation players or All-Stars is debatable, and impossible to answer right now). Your roster, however, comprises a lot of potential busts in Randolph, Dragic, and Joel Anthony, as well as players who've been in the league a few years and have not done much (Wright, Green). Are you at all concerned about expecting too much from some of these players?

Yes and no. Memphis isn't relying overmuch on any of the players you mention beyond Bynum, Westbrook and Fernandez. But I agree that the sheer number of unproven players on the roster is a liability.

Randolph is classic boom-or-bust, but at this point he's a third string forward. If he can produce right away, it's a coup for Memphis, and solves our lack of bench scoring but I'm otherwise comfortable giving his minutes to Wright and Griffen. (I am high on his summer-league play particularly considering his age, 19.)

Dragic is an mature 22 year old with Euroleague experience, I think he's a less risky investment than you make out. That said, he's currently penciled in as the team's third point guard. If he can challenge Westbrook for minutes that's a great problem to have. (In my defense, real Phoenix has already anointed him Nash's sole back-up going so far as to trade D.J. Strawberry in a salary dump.)

Of my seven or eight unproven talents, the most pressure is put on Joel Anthony. But he at least looked great in Olympic play and was reportedly outworking Dalembert before the guy was dismissed from the Canadian national team.

Willie Green, I've already soured on, and I now consider him my biggest draft mistake. That said, he's still a high energy, double digit scorer who started 74 games for a dark horse playoff team last season. Wright was an 8pm waiver wire pick up it would be hard for him not to exceed those expectations.

How effective can a small-ball lineup be on defense, even with Thibodeau running the show?

Bynum is one of the most mobile bigs in the league, and I firmly believe he'll be a game changer on the defensive end. None of my real-NBA small ball counterparts have had the luxury of a top four under-25 center. He's going to allow Fernandez, Foye, Arenas, Westbrook and Dragic to do what they do best, anticipate, overplay the ball and force turnovers. (Arenas and Fernandez in particular are very effective disruptors but equally undisciplined man to man defenders. Still both have the physical tools to improve. Foye is better fundamentally but small at the two and will have to get by on heart.)

And, though both are undersized, I love, love, love Lee and Hayes alongside Bynum as an offense/defense tandem of strong, agile bangers, who'll frustrate and exhaust opposing power forwards.

Within the organization, expectations are for Memphis to mask many of its defensive problems with heart, hustle, and heady play, and I believe I've put together the line-up to do it. No, I wouldn't claim to be a top five defensive team. I do hope top five in turnovers forced. (Fast break opportunities!)

[The Walker Wiggle]

You've assembled one of the poorest teams in the league for the "win now" category.

Kid gloves are off, huh? But, I like it. (And I hope all in good fun.)

The Wizards performed better minus GA last season. not a true PG

You're going to have to put some hard numbers behind your claim because Wizards scored more and more effectively with Arenas.

Also, they've only ever made it out of the first round with Arenas. And, while, yes, Washington, weathered his absence well - credit due to Jamison, Butler, and Daniels - Boston weathered Garnett's absence almost as well. The predominate opinion of NBA experts, Arenas's teammates and the Washington front office is that the Wizards' prospects are far better with Gil.

Also, I wouldn't throw stones in a glass house. Parker's assists numbers aren't grossly above Arenas's; and Foye is a better second point guard, so is Westbrook for that matter, than anyone else on your roster.

Bynum has not done a thing. (LA hype machine, talk about "fools gold")

He's done more on the pro-level than Greg Oden. He's played like a top-3 center for 35 games. He's looked better in 35 games than Bogut ever has in his career and that's a huge problem for Houston. Also, I've already shown, statistically, that Bogut is a defensive liability. You can't hand wave that away.

David Lee is a nice young role player on a team that wins 25 games annually

Andrew Bogut is a "franchise" center who wins 31 games annually. That's worse. How has Charlotte faired on the back of Gerald Wallace? I've already laid out the numbers as to why Lee is an underrated PF in the league, and the Knicks' best player last season. Can we agree that he would at least never lay down and die in a Finals series. **cough** Odom **cough**.

Foye is a nice young player but undersized and coming off multiple injuries and has been diagnosed with situs inversus.

Fair enough. Although isn't Gerald Wallace just as much an injury concern? He averages 57 games a season over a seven year career. He's played more than 70 games just once (72) and has never had to hold up in the playoffs. You can pencil Tim Thomas in as a starter for 20 games; if those are post-season games Houston is finished.

Mediocre bench

I'd argue an unproven bench with a lot of heart and upside, as opposed to a bench full of veterans in decline and career loafers. I do like Troy Murphy. He's a great back up power forward. But, Michael Finley, another player I like, scored 10 ppg last season on 41% shooting and is not the role player he was even two seasons ago.

And it's tough to consider yourself a contender when you're relying on Tim Thomas, a decent shooter who won't defend or rebound, and Luke Ridnour, last seen as a third string point guard on the fifth worst team in the league.

I wouldn't pick either up off a waive wire, I think that little of their motivation.

[JSD]

"Kid gloves are off, huh? But, I like it. (And I hope all in good fun.)"
 



"You're going to have to put some hard numbers behind your claim because Wizards scored more and more effectively with Arenas."

- The Wizards began the "08" season starting 0-5, Gilbert Went down after game 8. The Wizards ended up having a better record in the "08" season then in "07" with a healthy Arenas.

- Google: "most overrated NBA all star" and see what comes up.

"Also, they've only ever made it out of the first round with Arenas. And, while, yes, Washington, weathered his absence well - credit due to Jamison, Butler, and Daniels - Boston weathered Garnett's absence almost as well. The predominate opinion of NBA experts, Arenas's teammates and the Washington front office is that the Wizards' prospects are far better with Gil."


Not a big enough sample to make the comparison... Any site where i can check the Wizards record minus Jameson? I'm guessing they are well below .500


"Also, I wouldn't throw stones in a glass house. Parker's assists numbers aren't grossly above Arenas's; and Foye is a better second point guard, so is Westbrook for that matter, than anyone else on your roster."

Parker may not be the greatest play making PG but he does not stagnate an offense as "Shoot first" GA does. Foye is your starting SG. How many minutes do you expect the guy to log?

Westbrook? The rookie? Vs. Hunter, Ridnour and Damon?

"He's done more on the pro-level than Greg Oden. He's played like a top-3 center for 35 games. He's looked better in 35 games than Bogut ever has in his career and that's a huge problem for Houston. Also, I've already shown, statistically, that Bogut is a defensive liability. You can't hand wave that away."

Bogut scores and gets scored on. and if he's having that much of a problem with Bynum (which I doubt) I have Big Daddy coming off the bench (which you conveniently don't envision) To "Perk" your beloved Bynum.

"Andrew Bogut is a "franchise" center who wins 31 games annually. That's worse. How has Charlotte faired on the back of Gerald Wallace? I've already laid out the numbers as to why Lee is an underrated PF in the league, and the Knicks' best player last season. Can we agree that he would at least never lay down and die in a Finals series. **cough** Odom **cough**."

Haha, Odom laying down in dying against the best PF in the game huh? Well how did he fair against Boozer, D. West and K. Martin in the playoffs leading up to that terrible Finals performance **cough** played great **Cough** 

"Fair enough. Although isn't Gerald Wallace just as much an injury concern? He averages 57 games a season over a seven year career. He's played more than 70 games just once (72) and has never had to hold up in the playoffs. You can pencil Tim Thomas in as a starter for 20 games; if those are post-season games Houston is finished."

I have a few different options if Wallace is injured:

- Move Odom to the 3, insert T Murphy @ the 4
- Insert Shaq @ 5, Move Bogut to the 4
- Insert Mason at the 2, move Martin up to the 3
- and sure Insert Thomas at the 3 spot

"Michael Finley, another player I like, scored 10 ppg last season on 41% shooting and is not the role player he was even two seasons ago."

Because he was asked to start last season... He was worn out come playoff time. Here in Houston he's coming off the bench..

"Tim Thomas, a decent shooter who won't defend or rebound, and Luke Ridnour, last seen as a third string point guard on the fifth worst team in the league."

Ridnour was in the doghouse under PJ, the kid will play well next season and he's still young. Thomas in a limited role would provide some offense off the bench.

"I wouldn't pick either up off a waive wire, I think that little of their motivation."

They fit pretty nicely in limited roles that will test their abilities and attitude.

[Gainesville Celtic]

Since I got no dog in this fight (we expect the East to be a cakewalk  ), here's my 2 cents:
(italics are WalkerWiggle's quotes)

"You're going to have to put some hard numbers behind your claim because Wizards scored more and more effectively with Arenas."

- The Wizards began the "08" season starting 0-5, Gilbert Went down after game 8. The Wizards ended up having a better record in the "08" season then in "07" with a healthy Arenas.

- Google: "most overrated NBA all star" and see what comes up.

"Also, they've only ever made it out of the first round with Arenas. And, while, yes, Washington, weathered his absence well - credit due to Jamison, Butler, and Daniels - Boston weathered Garnett's absence almost as well. The predominate opinion of NBA experts, Arenas's teammates and the Washington front office is that the Wizards' prospects are far better with Gil."


Not a big enough sample to make the comparison... Any site where i can check the Wizards record minus Jameson? I'm guessing they are well below .500

The Wizards with a healthy Arenas/Butler/Jamison combo had the best record mid-way through the 2007 season.  IMO it's a fact that he's made that team better.  That they overacheived last year is not an indictment of Arenas, but a testament to Daniels (IMO) and to the team for not falling apart.

"He's done more on the pro-level than Greg Oden. He's played like a top-3 center for 35 games. He's looked better in 35 games than Bogut ever has in his career and that's a huge problem for Houston. Also, I've already shown, statistically, that Bogut is a defensive liability. You can't hand wave that away."

Bogut scores and gets scored on. and if he's having that much of a problem with Bynum (which I doubt) I have Big Daddy coming off the bench (which you conveniently don't envision) To "Perk" your beloved Bynum.

the Bogut/Bynum matchup is a wash, IMO.  Both have some improving to do, but Jsaad I think you're going a bit overboard in intimating that Bynum has never shown ANYTHING.  He's been inconsistent, but he's an NBA starting Center at a young age. (And that may be as nice a compliment you'll find me giving a Laker other than Derek Fisher  ).

"Andrew Bogut is a "franchise" center who wins 31 games annually. That's worse. How has Charlotte faired on the back of Gerald Wallace? I've already laid out the numbers as to why Lee is an underrated PF in the league, and the Knicks' best player last season. Can we agree that he would at least never lay down and die in a Finals series. **cough** Odom **cough**."

Haha, Odom laying down in dying against the best PF in the game huh? Well how did he fair against Boozer, D. West and K. Martin in the playoffs leading up to that terrible Finals performance **cough** played great **Cough** 

Yeah but Odom's disappearing has been an issue througout his NBA career --- in LAC, MIA and now again in Lakerland.  He's had an especially hard time in big games.  He reminds me of a poor man's ARod.

Odom may be better at his best than Lee, but I think Lee gives you a much more consistent effort... which comes close to matching Odom's up-and-down-ness.  (And believe me I like Odom's game, but he would drive me crazy as a fan).

"Fair enough. Although isn't Gerald Wallace just as much an injury concern? He averages 57 games a season over a seven year career. He's played more than 70 games just once (72) and has never had to hold up in the playoffs. You can pencil Tim Thomas in as a starter for 20 games; if those are post-season games Houston is finished."

I have a few different options if Wallace is injured:

- Move Odom to the 3, insert T Murphy @ the 4
- Insert Shaq @ 5, Move Bogut to the 4
- Insert Mason at the 2, move Martin up to the 3
- and sure Insert Thomas at the 3 spot

I'll agree with Jsaad that if Wallace does go down he's got options.  Tim Thomas is maddening at times (wasted potential along the lines of a Derrick Coleman) but he *can* play and contribute.

I like option #1  (move Odom to the 3, and Murphy to the 4) the best.

In fact, it woudl be interesting to see what kind of upgrade HOU could make by packaging, say, Wallace, Bogut and 1 player for a better big man in the middle.

"Tim Thomas, a decent shooter who won't defend or rebound, and Luke Ridnour, last seen as a third string point guard on the fifth worst team in the league."

Ridnour was in the doghouse under PJ, the kid will play well next season and he's still young. Thomas in a limited role would provide some offense off the bench.

"I wouldn't pick either up off a waive wire, I think that little of their motivation."

They fit pretty nicely in limited roles that will test their abilities and attitude.

Again, i think WW is edging into the deep end of Hyperbole here... Ridnour and Thomas are both NBA contributors and IMO are upgrades TODAY over Westbrook and D. Wright (who may very well have better careers longterm).

I've got the Grizz by a nose over the Spurs as 2nd right now in the SW Divison and neck-in-neck with DEN for the 8th seed in the West  -- only b/c of question marks surrounding Arenas + Foye (health) and Fernandez (how quickly can he adjust?).  Those questions could all be answereed in the affirmative in the first 2 month and I could see the Grizz pushign for 6th spot in the West.

Ubuntu Y'all!

[Roy Hobbs]

I've got the Grizz by a nose over the Spurs as 2nd right now in the SW Divison and neck-in-neck with DEN for the 8th seed in the West  -- only b/c of question marks surrounding Arenas + Foye (health) and Fernandez (how quickly can he adjust?).  Those questions could all be answereed in the affirmative in the first 2 month and I could see the Grizz pushign for 6th spot in the West.

Dallas doesn't make the top three in the Southwest?  I know that Edgar hasn't given his press conference yet, but the Gasol / Boozer combo up front is going to be very hard for teams to match up with.

[Gainesville Celtic]

I've got the Grizz by a nose over the Spurs as 2nd right now in the SW Divison and neck-in-neck with DEN for the 8th seed in the West  -- only b/c of question marks surrounding Arenas + Foye (health) and Fernandez (how quickly can he adjust?).  Those questions could all be answereed in the affirmative in the first 2 month and I could see the Grizz pushign for 6th spot in the West.

Dallas doesn't make the top three in the Southwest?  I know that Edgar hasn't given his press conference yet, but the Gasol / Boozer combo up front is going to be very hard for teams to match up with.

By right now  i meant of just the 3 teams that had posted Press Conferences... I'm too lzay/tired to go back and forth to the 30-team page.  I'm putting the lineups into my excel sheet as they get posted via Press Conf. and picking the playoff teams from there.

I like what i can remember of the Mavs... but I'll admit to being down on Gasol like i am on Odom for their disappearing act in the Finals (it's not just that they lost, it's that they really seemed to quit fighting .... you just don't do that in the Finals*).  Playing alongside someone like Boozer helps though.

* Granted i've never had a maniac like KG dunking in my face... but still...

[Edgar]

UNDER CONSTRUCTION
PRESS CONFERENCE
DALLAS CROTORS or MAVERICKS

GM           Edgar and that Mark Cuban guy.
Head Coach.  who cares even Doc can win with this team

Starting Lineup


PG
Nelson. Yes a great young PG with great passing skills and ready to play with big men.
Livingston. Worth the risk as secong PG with other guards backing up him, to play against bigger guards and dominate smaller ones.
Ty Lue: The insrance policy . Great to be a third string option. Scoring and speed

SG
Dunleavy: Great shooter to open the floor, avobe average defender and tough to guard for smaller guards because he can shoot over them.
Jaric: Loves to have ball in his hands, good touch and deffends well too.
Jackson: brings experience off the bench do the small things.

SF
Garcia: An underrated great player, just getting better, he can do a LOT of things and start to be a scoring precense, hes big and long too as fast.
Bonzi. To post smaller fowards, brings experience and scoring
Hermann: Another sleeper, he might have a bad year but he plays, and have a good shooting touch.Hes very good fundamentally too.

PF.
Boozer. A Beast
Ty thomas. A young promising PF with athletic skills to learn from Pau and Boozzie will only make him better
Andersen, hustle to match bigger fowards and athletic ability will take this front court over the top.

C
Pau Gasol. Come on you know Pau. a bad final series doesnt make him less, just make him hungrier.
ZaZa.  To bang with bigger centers and open the floor with shooting touch,
Blount/Kandi. To be the 15th player and hel with the towels.


Place to fight fot

1st on the division
Why
Deepnes and front court and more legs and healthy legs than other teams
willl make us better by the end of the year.  

[Roy Hobbs]

I'm not sure if the Hornets are going to be doing a press conference or not, so I'm going to post their lineup to allow others to make an informed decision in terms of voting for the division winner.  As best as I can tell, the lineup is:

Gadzuric/Doleac
Maxiell/Kleiza
Howard/Udoka/Forbes
Prince/Giricek
Jack/Robinson/Strawberry

Kristic (Russia), D. Hardin (Turkey)

Obviously, the Hornets got burned a bit by the "overseas" rule, leaving them without some size. 

Also, they were troopers and chipped in, taking over for another GM (actually, two of them) in mid-stream.  When they got there, the team had been gutted a bit of draft picks.  In particular, the following deal hurt:

ORLANDO sends  1st (14) and 6th (20)

for

NEW ORLEANS' 1st (24) two 3rds (13, 24) and a 4th (30)

That #14 turned out to be Steve Nash.  The draft picks traded turned into Kevin Durant, Jermaine O'Neal, Josh Howard, and Jason Terry.

They were also hurt by:

Bobcats trade:  3rd round (pick 13) and 4th round (pick 18)


Hornets trade:  2nd round (pick 7)  and 5th round (pick 24)

That was a massive undervaluing of the #37 overall pick; Chauncey Billups was selected in this slot, with other great picks like Deng, Gasol, Okafor, Parker, Kevin Martin, and others still on the board.

From that point onward, there wasn't a lot that any new GM for the Hornets could have done.  The Hornets made the following trade to make themselves respectable:

Warriors trade Tayshaun Prince, Josh Howard, Rd 4 Pick 28 to NO


Hornets trade Steve Nash, Rd 8 Pick 7 to GS

However, they were still left in a mess by previous ownership.

[KCattheStripe]

Edgar, two questions:

1) After his lack of toughness in the NBA finals playing the 5, are you worried about Gasol playing center?

2) Just something I'm curious about, what wing positions are Garcia and Dunleavy playing when they're on the floor together?