Celticsblog Mock GM Press Conferences: Southwest Division

[The Walker Wiggle]

Walker Wiggle, same question goes to you. Your depth?

I probably leave Randy Foye out on the court as the first option with the second unit. Rivers often did the same with Ray Allen to his credit.

Otherwise, Willie Green is a high energy scorer who's capable of getting 20 if given minutes. Of course, he's not consistent, he's more comfortable as a starter (maybe the reason he started all 74 games he appeared in for Philadelphia) and not much of a threat outside of 18 feet.

In the end, I'm relying on one of the rookies or late edition Dorrell Wright to step up and provide offense as a reserve. And you're right that I'm not entirely comfortable with the situation.

Westbrook may be the most likely to do so. He outplayed Derrick Rose in Orlando. (But I say to myself it's only Summer League) and averaged 16.5 ppg on 50% shooting in only 26 mpg. Also, 3.5 assists and 1.7 steals to only 1.5 turnovers. And ESPN, quoted one anonymous scout, saying "He’s flat out the best player here not named Kevin Durant.”

If not Westbrook, maybe Randolph he's long, fluid, quick off his feet, with a great first step. He has scouts and press raving about his ability to put the ball and the floor and averaged 20.8 ppg in Las Vegas and 17.5 ppg in Salt Lake City.Yes, he's also turnover prone with a shaky jumpshot, so there is also:

J.J. Hickson who averaged 19.4 ppg on 53% shooting in Las Vegas. He played aggressively around the rim  and got to the line a lot - where he couldn't make his free throws. It's possible the real Cavaliers just cleared the way for him in Cleveland by dealing Joe Smith.

Now let me turn it around, how do you feel about your bench's defense? You've got only got two notable defenders in your starting line up - Wallace and Parker. Then on the bench, O'Neal has declind sharply; Finley even more so; while Ridnour and Thomas are two of the worst defensive players in the league.

Also who convinced O'Neal to accept a reserve role? I don't see it.

Paul is good, but I'm not sure that he's worth two young stars (and legitimate stars) plus other talent when I already had an all-star caliber point guard.  On the other hand, in the position the Spurs were in, I see why they'd want to center their team around a legit superstar.

Also, just to take a poke at Roy, for asking me how I compare to the real life Washington Wizards instead of his Portland Trailblazers. You, sir, are the only G.M. who considers T.J. Ford an all-star calibre point guard.

[BigAlTheFuture]

Walker Wiggle, how do you see our teams matching up?

[Roy Hobbs]

Also, just to take a poke at Roy, for asking me how I compare to the real life Washington Wizards instead of his Portland Trailblazers. You, sir, are the only G.M. who considers T.J. Ford an all-star calibre point guard.

Well, in that case, it's not my fault I'm dealing with 29 other GMs who don't know what they're talking about.

T.J.'s per 36 numbers last year:  18.5 ppg / 9.4 apg / 3.0 rpg / 1.6 spg on 47% shooting

For a point guard, those are "all-star caliber" numbers.  It shocks me the number of people who have no clue how good T.J. Ford is.

[The Walker Wiggle]

Walker Wiggle, how do you see our teams matching up?

What's the best site for player match-ups? Gut reaction:

Chris Paul is obviously, an MVP candidate, and the best player, to say nothing of playmaker, on either team. But he's playing opposite Arenas, who's a star in his own right and considerably bigger and stronger. Paul isn't going to prevent him from getting his. I would expect fireworks.

Stackhouse and Stojakovic have the size advantage, and both are wiley vets who have the edge of experience. On the other hand, I wonder if either can consistently keep in front of his man. Fernandez in particular has a great deal more quickness and explosiveness than Peja.

At this point I give the advantage to San Antonio.

But then I strongly prefer my own front court. San Antonio has an even smaller frontline than Memphis. Wallace and Kirilenko are a live-wire pairing that I enjoy, and either is capable of changing the course of a game through defense and hustle alone. But both are also emotional players who have put in their fair share of sulky performances of late. (Admittedly, Kirilenko may benefit from a change of scenery.) More importantly both are offensive liabilities. I expect Bynum and Lee to hold their own defensively while giving the Grizzlies a game deciding scoring edge.

As for the reserves, at a glance, your bench is too thin to take advantage of my bench's inexperience. If I were to choose out a handful of players with a chance to make an impact in a seven games series my preference is for Hayes and Westbrook, first and second, Eddie Jones and Anthony Johnson third and fourth, Wright or Randolph or Darrell Arthur, another rookie I like, fifth.

I hold a low opinion of both Pavlovic and Derek Anderson. While Lorenzen Wright did almost nothing of note last season. I'm not even sure he's caught on with a new team yet?

[kw10]

Now let me turn it around, how do you feel about your bench's defense? You've got only got two notable defenders in your starting line up - Wallace and Parker. Then on the bench, O'Neal has declind sharply; Finley even more so; while Ridnour and Thomas are two of the worst defensive players in the league.

Also who convinced O'Neal to accept a reserve role? I don't see it.

Firstly, Andrew Bogut is underrated in defence, sure he's not known for throwing block parties, but he has managed to up his average to 1.7 last season. However defence cannot be truly measured by stats, and that I think is a reason people do not consider him a good defender. Off the bench, we have Roger Mason Jr, who is very capable on the defensive end (he's no Ron Artest, but makes a great team defender) as well as the likes of Melvin Ely who's there to do the hard yards down low. We will also be considering bringing Lindsey Hunter out of retirement comes crunch time, there's no doubt about his defence last year for sure. And as you mentioned, lacking notable defenders, our team will be focusing to develop a good team defence, and I think that will help us overcome any lack of great individuals, especially with our coaching staff.

As for Shaq, I've previously explained he's not only a great locker room guy the fact that he gets along with his teammates, but he's also one of those people who will do whatever it takes for the team to win. And he also realises he's not 24 anymore, so playing slightly reduced minutes off the bench would maximise his production. And Shaq might even get the occasional start depending on matchups, moving Bogut to the 4, who is as great in the high post as he is in the low post.

[The Walker Wiggle]

I'm not going to sit here and downplay your team; I like it.  My thought is, I'll be meeting you in the Western Conference Finals this year, and probably next year, too.

This makes too much sense, as Houston is, to my eyes, a more veteran version of the Portland Trailblazers, built on the same philosophy and suffering a lot of the same problems, lack of a cornerstone player, lack of perimeter scoring in the starting line up, no clear hierarchy on offense, unacknowledged defensive troubles, little team identity beyond a commitment to selfless play. I originally ranked Houston well ahead of Portland based on my preference for Parker over Ford, Martin over Iguodala, and Wallace over Gay. But Houston has no one to guard Stoudemire; and, on further consideration, I greatly prefer Portland's bench. Houston's is filled with fool's gold other than that one Hall of Fame bound center in decline who wouldn't be willing to accept the suggested 15-20 mpg back up role, certainly not behind Andrew Bogut (Funny aside, I wanted to see O'Neal's #s vs Andrew Bogut. They haven't played each other in over two years.)

Ridnour especially is getting far too much due here, he's awful defensively, and a shoot first point guard who's a career 41% shooter.

[kw10]

I'm not going to sit here and downplay your team; I like it.  My thought is, I'll be meeting you in the Western Conference Finals this year, and probably next year, too.

Ridnour especially is getting far too much due here, he's awful defensively, and a shoot first point guard who's a career 41% shooter.

Since the other things you've said, we've already covered. I'll only comment on Ridnour, he is not at all a shoot first point guard. Noone's saying he's a Lindsey Hunter defensively (that's why we drafted him to bring him out of retirement comes playoffs time) and Luke has not been getting the opportunities in Seattle, and we believe that people's opinion of him will improve as he's going to get his opportunities in Milwaukee.

[celticmaestro]

Credit to KgthePresent () he made nothing into something. His team looks pretty good considering how bad it was before.

Where are the Mavs and Hornets?

To weigh in thus far, I think the Rockets take this division easily. I think in a few years that the Griz probably take it, I like their young core, it's not Lakers or Blazers potential, or even Celtics over on the East, but it could be with some additional moves.

[Roy Hobbs]

Where are the Mavs and Hornets?

Mavs are in the jungle of Guatemala, and will post their conference on Sunday or Monday; we'll put up a poll then, I guess.

Haven't heard anything at all from the Hornets, despite sending them a PM.

[Gainesville Celtic]

Also, just to take a poke at Roy, for asking me how I compare to the real life Washington Wizards instead of his Portland Trailblazers. You, sir, are the only G.M. who considers T.J. Ford an all-star calibre point guard.

Well, in that case, it's not my fault I'm dealing with 29 other GMs who don't know what they're talking about.

T.J.'s per 36 numbers last year:  18.5 ppg / 9.4 apg / 3.0 rpg / 1.6 spg on 47% shooting

For a point guard, those are "all-star caliber" numbers.  It shocks me the number of people who have no clue how good T.J. Ford is.

At first I had the same reaction as WW.  At this point i might concede that numbers-wise and talent-wise Ford might be a borderline all-star, but ....

much like with guys like TMac, Yao, G. Wallace -- maybe even more so with Ford -- his injury history simply can't be ignored.  His spine was an issue coming out of college and he's now missed 1 full season and 1 half season due to 2 seperate injuries to it.

This is a very legitimate concern IMO in terms of building a team (which, as you know, is what we're doing here) and one that brings him back to the pack with Devin Harris, Jameer Nelson (who for some reason everyone hates, including ORL) and vets like Andre Miller and Mo Williams.


my Eastern conference starting PG rankings would look something like this, Tier 1 is all-star, Tier 2 is borderline All-star/very good to great starter -- which i guess you could call all-star "caliber"; i'd say "near all-star".

Tier 1: Billups, Arenas, Rondo, Calderon

Tier 2: Andre Miller, Ford, Harris, Nelson and Mo Williams

Tier 3: Hinrich, Bibby, Felton, Duhon

Tier 4: Sessions, Banks/Chalmers

[The Walker Wiggle]

To weigh in thus far, I think the Rockets take this division easily.

I'd like to change your mind on that Maestro. Memphis wins three of five starting match-ups by my count.

Bynum surpasses Bogut in every meaningful metric you'll find.

Bynum TS% 65.9% Rebound Rate 19.6% Pts P36 16.4 BLK P36 2.6 PER 22.6  PER Differential +10.4 Roland Rating +8.4 +/- +3.9

Bogut TS% 53.2% Rebound Rate 16.5% Pts P36 14.8 BLK P36 1.8 PER 17.5 PER Differential +1.5 Roland Rating +1.7 +/- +1.9

Arenas, while not as good a ball-handler or defender, is bigger and stronger than Parker and on another level offensively.

Arenas TS% 56.5% Pts P36 25.8 AST P36 5.4 Stl P36 1.7 TO P36 2.9 PER 26 PER Differential +6.2 Roland Rating +8.9 +/- +14.1

Parker TS% 54.2% Pts P36 20.2 AST P36 6.4 Stl P36 0.9 TO P36 2.6 PER 20 PER Differential +7.9 Roland Rating +6.7 +/- +6.1

And Lamar Odom is more a playmaker than David Lee with greater length, but I'm not ready to concede the match-up considering that Lee is the more efficient scorer, the better rebounder, and exactly the type of player Odom wilts against in a play off series.

David Lee TS% 60.6% Pts P36 13.4 Rebound Rate  17.5% PER 18.0 Roland Rating +2.5 +/- +4.1 Ast P36 1.5 STL P36 0.8 BLK P36 0.4

Odom TS% 58.2% Pts P36 13.5 Rebound Rate 15.6% PER 16.9 Roland Rating +2.4 +/- +3.1 AST P36 3.4 STL P36 0.9 BLK P36 0.9

ADVANTAGE MEMPHIS

Kevin Martin has a big advantage over Randy Foye at this point, excepting that combo-guard Foye is the much better passer. I do expect Foye to make the leap in this his third season and narrow the gap. See Foye's finally healthy April numbers for an example of what I expect.

Randy Foye TS% 52% Pts P36 14.6 Ast P36 4.7 Stl P36 1 TO P36 2.3 PER 12.7 Roland Rating -1.8 +/- +1.2

Kevin Martin TS%61.8% Pts P36 23.4 Ast P36 2.1 Stl P36 1 TO P36 2.1 PER 21.0 Roland Rating +6.2 +/- +3.7

And I'll just concede the Wallace/Fernandez match up now, mostly because of the difficulty of projecting Rudy's rookie stats, but also because I love Gerald Wallace. Of the five, this match up is the most apples and oranges. I suspect Fernandez will be the more consistent performer and the more dynamic scorer. Wallace, on the other hand, plays big and is a difference maker on the defensive end.

[celticmaestro]

To weigh in thus far, I think the Rockets take this division easily.

I'd like to change your mind on that Maestro. Memphis wins three of five starting match-ups by my count.

Bynum > Bogut - No real explanation needed.
Odom > Lee - Lee at the PF spot is probably better, but Odom has the experience as well as the ability and wins this battle hands down for me (if he gets his mind right).
Wallace > Fernandez - Barring injuries, Wallace demolishes Fernandez.
Martin > Foye - This is a close one, I give Martin the edge because I think Foye is more of a combo-guard than a natural 2.
Arenas > Parker - There's a catch here. Arenas is the much better player. But Parker is the much better fit for the Rockets team than Arenas for your Griz.

I'm thinking that your back-court overall doesn't match up well with the Rockets (I really don't like Foye and Arenas at the back, Foye would get dominated by someone like Kobe or T-Mac in that position - probably even Martin), neither does your bench, which is why I see the Rockets taking it this year.

[JSD]

To weigh in thus far, I think the Rockets take this division easily.

I'd like to change your mind on that Maestro. Memphis wins three of five starting match-ups by my count.

Bynum > Bogut - No real explanation needed.

I'd like one,

Bynum is approaching Lebron James level (Pre-"03")in terms of hype. The guy hasn't done a thing yet and he's sustained a serious injury at a young age.

Dealing with career numbers and/or the here and now, I take Bogut in this match-up.

[Gainesville Celtic]

To weigh in thus far, I think the Rockets take this division easily.

I'd like to change your mind on that Maestro. Memphis wins three of five starting match-ups by my count.

Bynum > Bogut - No real explanation needed.

I'd like one,

Bynum is approaching Lebron James level (Pre-"03")in terms of hype. The guy hasn't done a thing yet and he's sustained a serious injury at a young age.

Dealing with career numbers and/or the here and now, I take Bogut in this match-up.

Agree that Bynum is being overhyped everywhere.... but LBJ has actually exceeded the hype, FWIW.

I'd put Bynum = Bogut, or maybe the slightest of edges to Bogut.

I think Bynum is better defensively, Bogut better offensively.  Both have had some injuries.  Bogut has showed it for longer than Bynum, so slightest of edges...

And as much as I thought the Lee pick was early, I'd take him 99 times out of 100 over Odom (who took a serious hit in my eyes in the Finals).

[The Walker Wiggle]

Honestly, I can't see the case being made for Bogut over Bynum. Oden has yet to play a professional game and missed a large part of his freshman season and yet went 12th in the draft. And, anyway, Bynum by all accounts is in on the road to a full recovery.

That aside. I encourage Bogut defenders to take another look at the numbers. Bynum shoots a far better percentage from the floor, 63% vs 51%, scores more than Bogut on a per minute basis: 13 points in 28 minutes vs 14 points in 34 minutes, he's a 70% FT shooter, while Bynum is a liability at the stripe shooting below 60%. Bynum grabs more offensive rebounds. Neither shoots the 3. So on what strength is Bogut a better offensive center? Yes, Andrew passes the ball better but not so well as to make up for the difference in scoring efficiency, rebounding, and impact on the floor (to say nothing of the huge difference in defense). Also worth nothing that their Assist/TO #s are close.

As far as Bogut's defense is concerned, he puts up decent offensive numbers and so do the centers he guards, as exhibited by a PER differential of +1.5. (I'll mention Bynum's differential again, for those who glossed over my press release and at the risk of over-hyping him because it's just so exciting. He's +10.4. Only eleven other NBA players have a differential great than +10, players like James, Bryant, Paul, Garnett and Howard...) Bynum is convincingly better on both ends and is three years younger.

I'm willing to hear the counter argument if it consist of anything more than "nah, I like Bogut better", but I'm very skeptical.