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Doc's difficult task
« on: August 23, 2008, 03:48:46 PM »

Offline Roy Hobbs

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Looking at our roster, there seems to be a lot of talent on paper, but there are also a number of question marks.  Our starters are solid (even if Rondo and Perk will continue to show youthful mistakes on occasion).  The bench, as discussed in various threads, is more questionable.  Here it is:

C: Patrick O'Bryant (7'0", 3rd year)
PF: Leon Powe (6'8", 3rd year)
PF: Glen Davis (6'9", 2nd year)
PF: Brian Scalabrine (6'9", 8th year)
SF: Darius Miles (6'9", 6th year)
SF: Bill Walker (6'6", rookie)
SG: Tony Allen (6'4", 5th year)
SG: J.R. Giddens (6'5", rookie)
PG: Eddie House (6'1", 9th year)
PG: Gabe Pruitt (6'4", 2nd year)

Looking at that group of guys, the question I'm left asking is "What is Doc going to do with this?"  From observation of Doc over his years in Boston, I think he's demonstrated four trends in his coaching: 1) love for "small ball", 2) preference for veterans, 3) a fairly inconsistent rotation, and 4) a tendency to "mass substitute" four or five bench players into the game at the same time.

Small ball: Looking at the roster, this seems to be one that is well-suited to small ball.  In fact, Doc might not have any other choice, in that the team's only bench guy over 6'10" averaged 4.1 minutes per game last year.  The bench seems to be fairly weak in terms of interior defense and rebounding, but has an abundance of athleticism.  It's expected, then, that Doc will try to get the team out in transition, where athletic guys like Walker, Giddens, and Tony can finish.  The question then becomes, does the bench have a point guard capable of leading that transition attack?  The answer to that, at this point, seems to be no.  Both House and Pruitt seem to be more "combo guards", and neither has demonstrated that they are a great transition point guard (or in Pruitt's case, a point guard at all).  That doesn't mean the team can't run with its bench players, but it *does* suggest that Rondo should be playing a lot of minutes with these guys.

Veterans:  These are in short supply on our bench as constituted.  Only House, Scal, and perhaps Tony can be considered a true "veteran"; I don't count Miles in this group because he hasn't played in a couple of seasons, and when he was playing, he wasn't exactly demonstrating veteran behavior, either on or off the court.  Does this lack of veterans suggest that Doc will go to Scal more?  I know that that's not what many fans want to hear, but I think that's exactly what we're going to see.  Scal has demonstrated the ability to play defense at a high level, and he has good positioning on the court.  Unfortunately, he doesn't contribute much on the offensive end, which handicaps any bench unit he's a part of.

Inconsistent Rotations:  I don't think there's any way that Doc, or any coach, could have a set rotation with this roster, at least immediately.  House and Powe have probably "earned" minutes (although Doc wasn't in love with either player in last year's playoffs), and Tony seems to be a good bet to have a spot in the rotation.  From there, nobody has consistently shown anything.  There are a lot of players at about the same level, and there is a lot of overlap between the various positions.  With so little differentiation between the players, I think it will be a real challenge in fitting guys into defined roles.

Mass substitutions:  This one scares me a bit.  While I think the problems created by not having enough vets and the lack of size on the bench are issues Doc has no control over, the management of substitution patterns will fall squarely on Doc's shoulders.  Last season, Doc demonstrated a pattern of playing four or five bench guys at the same time.  I think if he attempts to do that this year, the team is going to get murdered.  Simply put, there isn't a group of four guys off of the bench that I'd be comfortable with having in the game at the same time.  The bench guys are just too young and inconsistent, and they don't necessarily complement one another's talents well. 

Does that mean the team is doomed?  No.  However, what it does suggest is that Doc needs to be very conscious of making sure that he has a better mix of starters and bench players on the floor at the same time this year.  Not only will that provide for better results on the court, but it will also aid in the young guy's development.  Bill Walker will be more successful playing alongside KG and Rondo than he will be next to Patrick O'Bryant and Eddie House.  Tony, as mentioned before, is most effective when playing with the starters.  I'm sure that will be the case with any of the young players.  I think it's very important that Doc keep two of the "big three" on the court at all times, or at the very least make sure there are two starters in the game.  There are enough minutes to accomplish this, so it will be on Doc's shoulders to bring it to fruition.

From my perspective, this off-season hasn't been ideal.  However, at this point, things aren't going to change significantly, so it's time for the team to start thinking about the adjustments that need to be made.  I'm fairly sympathetic to Doc, as the roster isn't a great fit for his coaching style.  That being said, he's going to have to make the proper adjustments to put this team in an optimum position to succeed.  I don't envy him, but if there are some growing pains at the beginning of the season, I think we should all remember the situation Doc has been put in, and try to be sympathetic before criticizing him too much.  (That being said...  growing pains are only acceptable if there is growth.  Let's hope that Doc makes the adjustments he needs to to get this team to where it needs to be.)

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Re: Doc's difficult task
« Reply #1 on: August 23, 2008, 04:07:06 PM »

Offline EJPLAYA

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PP played 36 mpg, KG 33, Rondo 30, Ray 36, and Perk 24.5 - I fully expect another 2-3 out of Rondo and 5 out of Perk by just getting better and staying on the floor more. That leaves :

PG - 15 mpg
SG - 12 mpg
SF - 12 mpg
PF - 15 mpg
C - 18 mpg

If House is getting 19 pg like last year at the 1 and 2 spots combined, then there are most of the PG minutes and 3-4 of the SG minutes. TA should get the rest of the SG minutes and a couple SF minutes if we go smaller. Pruitt gets the remaining few PG minutes and maybe even a couple SG depending on TA's production. (maybe none at either depending on TA as well)

Many feel Giddens and or Walker can get the bulk of the SF minutes so that takes care of that part assuming Miles doesn't make it. Powe and BBD will fight over the minutes behind KG and Perk and O'Bryant will take the rest of the center minutes. If he can't cut it this year, we will do another PJ move towards the end of the year.

I don't see a real big dropoff in anything this year except for Posey's role. He did average 24 mpg and I don't think one player is going to fill that, but a combination of TA, Giddens, Walker, and Miles could do the trick. The only big dropoff is that they can't shoot the three. Hopefully House will take more of these and worst case scenario Scal can knockdown the three if he gets some confidence back. He does shoot 35% from downtown for his career.

Re: Doc's difficult task
« Reply #2 on: August 23, 2008, 04:18:56 PM »

Offline BudweiserCeltic

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Before discussing what Doc's strategy would be, how about narrowing down our roster to a 12-man roster?

Assuming Miles makes the team, I doubt Scal, O'bryant, and Walker make the 12-man roster.

Re: Doc's difficult task
« Reply #3 on: August 23, 2008, 04:24:47 PM »

Offline rutzan

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this is what i see...

the only player of real significance that we lost is posey...

we have 4 new players...giddens, walker, pob, and miles...

young players who should get better...rondo, perkins, powe, davis, allen, pruitt...

i think if you look at the odds and probabilities...the improvements of the young players plus the new players should compensate for the loss of one and only player...

think about it...can you really say that posey's contributions can outweigh the contributions of 10 players...

i do not think it is mathematically possible...

as much as i liked posey...


Re: Doc's difficult task
« Reply #4 on: August 23, 2008, 05:06:37 PM »

Offline Chief

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I know it would never happen, but I'd like to see Ray Allen be our super 6th man. This team needs the scoring power and leadership off the bench and Tony Allen plays much better as a starter.
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Re: Doc's difficult task
« Reply #5 on: August 23, 2008, 05:08:45 PM »

Offline Roy Hobbs

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this is what i see...

the only player of real significance that we lost is posey...

we have 4 new players...giddens, walker, pob, and miles...

young players who should get better...rondo, perkins, powe, davis, allen, pruitt...

i think if you look at the odds and probabilities...the improvements of the young players plus the new players should compensate for the loss of one and only player...

think about it...can you really say that posey's contributions can outweigh the contributions of 10 players...

i do not think it is mathematically possible...

as much as i liked posey...



With all intended respect, I think you missed the point of my thread.  I *do* think losing Posey (and P.J.) is going to hurt the team, but more, I'm curious how the new players are going to impact the way Doc is forced to coach.  (There are a couple of other more general off-season threads.)

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Re: Doc's difficult task
« Reply #6 on: August 23, 2008, 05:14:39 PM »

Offline jay_jay54

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After seeing this past season,playoffs,etc.Doc doesn't strike me as the type of coach,that is big on set rotations .I think if this cast of players are around during the whole season,Doc will mix and match players much like he did  this past season,insert them by the task at hand.Hopefully,Doc has realized if a player is not working out,move on a little quicker.Bill Walker from viewing his videos,seems like a player who could possibly run things in a up tempo game(fast break).I see Walker,(if he makes it)being able to run the offense on the second team...also,as far as veteran experience off the bench,i expect Doc will include Leon in that group,even though Powe is only in his 3rd season,i think Doc will expect less mistakes,and more leadership  from Leon.He is still young,but carries himself,beyond his years(imo).So i can see Doc leaning more on Powe for leadership on the floor of the newbies.   
« Last Edit: August 23, 2008, 05:44:56 PM by jay_jay54 »

Re: Doc's difficult task
« Reply #7 on: August 23, 2008, 05:26:13 PM »

Offline Who

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I think it will be fairly straight forward and very similar to last season.

I expect Leon Powe and Glen Davis to resume the roles they held prior to PJ Brown's late arrival. I also expect Eddie House to continue his role at the point. That's 3/5ths of the bench relatively settled. Then comes to the wings where I expect Tony Allen to receive the majority of the minutes, possibly be the 6th man, and in doing so set up a very steady 9 man rotation and the vast majority of the total available bench minutes.

JR Giddens will then be the next player of use because of his defense and athleticism, he'll provide good options when he needs more bodies on the wing and could possibly make it a 10 man rotation if his game is advanced enough. From there I expect Brian Scalabrine to resume his role as first choice insurance big man, coming in when injuries strikes or other strenuous situations (foul trouble, loss of form). On the wings I expect Bill Walker to take that role. At guard I expect Pruitt there. I expect Pruitt to hardly play at all as long as Eddie is fit. Ditto for Scal and the respective bigs. Walker could challenge Giddens and might make that a battle. O Bryant should never play. Miles' health will be the deciding factor, and until he proves his health I don't expect him to play either.

Frankly I don't see a whole lot of issues here for Doc. I think it's fairly clear cut who will play and who will form the bench and in what roles. Powe, Davis, Tony, Eddie are the foundation ... everyone else is a situational player with Giddens possessing the most interesting complementary skill set.

Re: Doc's difficult task
« Reply #8 on: August 23, 2008, 05:34:53 PM »

Offline zerophase

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simple... rookies get no playing time and neither does scal. powe and davis share the pf spot, and house and pruitt share the pg spot. problem solved.

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Re: Doc's difficult task
« Reply #9 on: August 23, 2008, 05:39:39 PM »

Offline Roy Hobbs

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I don't think it's nearly as clear cut as you suggest, Who.  Last season, Posey played 26% of the total minutes at PF and 19% of the available minutes at SF.  In the playoffs, P.J. Brown played 21% of the total minutes at center (and 5% at PF).  I'm not sure it's as easy as "have everybody play the roles they played last year".

I think Posey made a lot of the lineups he was in work.  There's something to be said for veteran savvy and leadership.  It's not as easy as just plugging in Tony or Powe and saying "go take Posey's minutes".  The same is true of P.J. in the playoffs.

Also, I do think some adjustments will have to be made in the way Doc handles his substitutions (which I see as different than the rotation).  I think there needs to be more of an emphasis on keeping the bench mixed with the starters.  Whereas last year some of the bench players had the leadership to take charge when surrounded by young guys, this year we don't have that as much.

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Re: Doc's difficult task
« Reply #10 on: August 23, 2008, 06:03:52 PM »

Offline EJPLAYA

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I know it would never happen, but I'd like to see Ray Allen be our super 6th man. This team needs the scoring power and leadership off the bench and Tony Allen plays much better as a starter.

Based on what?! The small stretch he started with PP out of the lineup the other year? That's the only consistent stretch that TA ever started and played really well except earlier in his career off the bench. Seeing as we had absolutely no "legitimate" starters that year once PP went down I would argue that he wasn't really playing as a starter anyway. He was leading a group of backup type players. I think a more accurate comment would be that he only plays well when he is the focal point of the offense and is allowed to shoot it anytime he wants. That won't be the case with the other guys on the floor with him. House, Powe, etc will demand some shots and so he will need to learn to play within the team or he will sit. I also think his outside shot was much more reliable that year which allowed him to get to the rim easier and unless he gets that confidence back he will once again struggle. He can't athletically beat everyone off the dribble like he did the first year before he was injured. Hopefully he will be much closer than last year though and can add some value. 

Re: Doc's difficult task
« Reply #11 on: August 23, 2008, 06:23:17 PM »

Offline Who

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I don't think it's nearly as clear cut as you suggest, Who.  Last season, Posey played 26% of the total minutes at PF and 19% of the available minutes at SF.  In the playoffs, P.J. Brown played 21% of the total minutes at center (and 5% at PF).  I'm not sure it's as easy as "have everybody play the roles they played last year".

I think Posey made a lot of the lineups he was in work.  There's something to be said for veteran savvy and leadership.  It's not as easy as just plugging in Tony or Powe and saying "go take Posey's minutes".  The same is true of P.J. in the playoffs.

Also, I do think some adjustments will have to be made in the way Doc handles his substitutions (which I see as different than the rotation).  I think there needs to be more of an emphasis on keeping the bench mixed with the starters.  Whereas last year some of the bench players had the leadership to take charge when surrounded by young guys, this year we don't have that as much.
You are asking questions of how well a lineup works differentiating from past to present .... not from options presently on this team.

Nobody beyond that basic four - Powe, Davis, Tony, Eddie - is anywhere near challenging their spots in the rotation.

The two with the best shot of doing so are the rookies and I think that more because of the unknown (haven't seen much of either yet) than established quality. Scal won't, O Bryant won't, Pruitt won't, Darius won't (as said assuming he isn't healthy until proven otherwise on the court) ... those latter four simply don't offer as much as the guys ahead of them, and it's not close either.

I think it's very clear who's going to playing. What's not clear is how much they'll contribute although we do have a ball park for Davis, Powe, House and I think last season is a low estimate on what Tony can bring.

As for mixing rotations, I don't think Doc will do it, he seems to like those second units full of bench players, but I'd like to see a similar thing. I'd like to see Rondo and either Ray or Paul in the second unit, with Eddie moving spending a bit more time next to the starters. I think that would create more balance and direction for the backups to play off of.

Re: Doc's difficult task
« Reply #12 on: August 23, 2008, 06:27:03 PM »

Offline Finkelskyhook

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Wow, Coach Hobbs.  Was that your thesis?  Geez - through and good
post.

I don't assume anything with Rivers.  But I hope he won't run Ray to death out of the block like he did last season.  The bench players will get more minutes and more time to develop this year and they have another year of experience.  I don't think they've lost nearly as much as you think they have.

I don't think it's that much of a disaster to play 4 bench players at the same time as long as the four are all on Thibodeau's defensive page.  I don't see that changing much this year from last.  The young legs will cancel out a lot of the vet intangibles.  

Without Thibodeau, it's a disaster of catastrophic proportions.  Posey was a critical cog in Thibodeau's system.  But he still was a cog.  It's the system.  He's going to be hard to replace.  Especially in crunch time.   But not impossible.
 

Re: Doc's difficult task
« Reply #13 on: August 23, 2008, 06:30:05 PM »

Offline Roy Hobbs

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Interesting, Who (and B.C.).  I think Scal is actually going to have a significant role next year, but time will tell, I guess.  I think Doc values veterans too much to give Posey and P.J.'s roles to the kids.  I don't think Doc fully trusts either Powe or BBD, as demonstrated by their minutes in the playoffs.  I think he'll be tempted to replace a healthy chunk of those minutes with the only capable vet on the roster, Scal. 

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Re: Doc's difficult task
« Reply #14 on: August 23, 2008, 06:36:08 PM »

Offline fairweatherfan06

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If Miles makes the team I think the 12-man roster will be...

Rondo/House/Pruitt
Allen/Allen (and some House and Pruitt here too)
PP/Miles (might see some spot minutes here for the Allen's too)
KG/Powe/BBD (Miles might get some minutes here too)
Perk/POB (with BBD getting some minutes here too and KG playing here during small ball)

Inactive: Scal (though if Tony, Pruitt, or POB prove to not be up to par you could see him take one of there spots some nights)

And the Rookies stashed in D-Leauge most of the year.

However if Miles doesn't make the squad

Scal, Giddens, or Walker takes his spot behind PP probably depending on how they look in camp respectively