Doc's difficult task

[fairweatherfan06]

C: Patrick O'Bryant (7'0", 3rd year)  (he's gonna play because he's 7 feet no question)
PF: Leon Powe (6'8", 3rd year)     (needs to show more consistency but he'll get minutes)
PF: Glen Davis (6'9", 2nd year)    (same as above)
PF: Brian Scalabrine (6'9", 8th year)  (I think he's a hole filler and his PT depends on the performance of others which sucks for him)

SF: Darius Miles (6'9", 6th year) (if he's healthy and will defend he will get the backup behind Paul)
SF: Bill Walker (6'6", rookie) (I think he potentially is the most reliable young player on this list, including TA)

SG: Tony Allen (6'4", 5th year)  (same as Baby and Powe with the additional understanding this is his last chance to prove himself, no way he gets to the second year of his contract if he doesn't show and prove this year)

SG: J.R. Giddens (6'5", rookie)  (If TA falters and he shows promise Tony will look very expendable, other than that he'll be in the D-league)

PG: Eddie House (6'1", 9th year) (he is what he is and I like it)

PG: Gabe Pruitt (6'4", 2nd year) (I don't know what to expect but I look at the early season as largely an audition for this young man, if he doesn't show the skills to run a team, particularly the second unit I think he'll be replaced)

[BillfromBoston]

I don't think it's nearly as clear cut as you suggest, Who.  Last season, Posey played 26% of the total minutes at PF and 19% of the available minutes at SF.  In the playoffs, P.J. Brown played 21% of the total minutes at center (and 5% at PF).  I'm not sure it's as easy as "have everybody play the roles they played last year".

I think Posey made a lot of the lineups he was in work.  There's something to be said for veteran savvy and leadership.  It's not as easy as just plugging in Tony or Powe and saying "go take Posey's minutes".  The same is true of P.J. in the playoffs.

Also, I do think some adjustments will have to be made in the way Doc handles his substitutions (which I see as different than the rotation).  I think there needs to be more of an emphasis on keeping the bench mixed with the starters.  Whereas last year some of the bench players had the leadership to take charge when surrounded by young guys, this year we don't have that as much.

I think that's valid for sure, Posey had a "presence" that isnt' accounted for by simply re-allocating minutes...I do think the substitution patterns will go a long way toward establishing  how the rotation functions and that it'll differ from last season...

I do however feel that Powe/TA/House, (the 6,7,8 guys) have what it takes to play effectively when inserted into the game. I like their mix of offense/defense and I think the way their mixed in with  the other starters will provide the continuity needed to maximize their effectiveness...

[BillfromBoston]

Looking at our roster, there seems to be a lot of talent on paper, but there are also a number of question marks.  Our starters are solid (even if Rondo and Perk will continue to show youthful mistakes on occasion).  The bench, as discussed in various threads, is more questionable.  Here it is:

C: Patrick O'Bryant (7'0", 3rd year)
PF: Leon Powe (6'8", 3rd year)
PF: Glen Davis (6'9", 2nd year)
PF: Brian Scalabrine (6'9", 8th year)
SF: Darius Miles (6'9", 6th year)
SF: Bill Walker (6'6", rookie)
SG: Tony Allen (6'4", 5th year)
SG: J.R. Giddens (6'5", rookie)
PG: Eddie House (6'1", 9th year)
PG: Gabe Pruitt (6'4", 2nd year)

Looking at that group of guys, the question I'm left asking is "What is Doc going to do with this?"  From observation of Doc over his years in Boston, I think he's demonstrated four trends in his coaching: 1) love for "small ball", 2) preference for veterans, 3) a fairly inconsistent rotation, and 4) a tendency to "mass substitute" four or five bench players into the game at the same time.

Small ball: Looking at the roster, this seems to be one that is well-suited to small ball.  In fact, Doc might not have any other choice, in that the team's only bench guy over 6'10" averaged 4.1 minutes per game last year.  The bench seems to be fairly weak in terms of interior defense and rebounding, but has an abundance of athleticism.  It's expected, then, that Doc will try to get the team out in transition, where athletic guys like Walker, Giddens, and Tony can finish.  The question then becomes, does the bench have a point guard capable of leading that transition attack?  The answer to that, at this point, seems to be no.  Both House and Pruitt seem to be more "combo guards", and neither has demonstrated that they are a great transition point guard (or in Pruitt's case, a point guard at all).  That doesn't mean the team can't run with its bench players, but it *does* suggest that Rondo should be playing a lot of minutes with these guys.

--->>I think "yes" and "no" on the points above. First off, if Patrick O'Bryant plays his role effectively then their is always a traditional sized center in the game when needed. Secondly,  Glen Davis played effectively at the 5 frequently on the defensive side of the court, so the 5 has the potential to be both traditional and effective.

Secondly, I wouldn't call the bench weak in interior defense and rebounding either. Every player on that list, minus Eddie House and Pruitt, are plus rebounders at their positions. POB/Powe/Davis are all quality man defenders. POB is an exceptional shot-blocker, both on-ball and weakside.

I do agree that the team will try and get in transition more often, but I don't see this as a problem at all. I thought Eddie House looked pretty good in transition last year and transition is the easiest way to run offense as it doesn't need alot of PG play, just smart ball movement and good spacing.If you think he was poor in transition than we disagree on that point and there's not much to be done about it. I do agree that Rondo will see a lot of run though.

Veterans:  These are in short supply on our bench as constituted.  Only House, Scal, and perhaps Tony can be considered a true "veteran"; I don't count Miles in this group because he hasn't played in a couple of seasons, and when he was playing, he wasn't exactly demonstrating veteran behavior, either on or off the court.  Does this lack of veterans suggest that Doc will go to Scal more?  I know that that's not what many fans want to hear, but I think that's exactly what we're going to see.  Scal has demonstrated the ability to play defense at a high level, and he has good positioning on the court.  Unfortunately, he doesn't contribute much on the offensive end, which handicaps any bench unit he's a part of.

This is true, there aren't a ton of vets on the bench. House, TA, and Powe are projected as the 6,7,8 men right now and TA hasn't been counted since his rookie year to hold a rotation spot down on a playoff team. I think this is a "concern" area for sure in terms of the "risk" factor goes. But, as I said in our previous thread, I think Pierce/Ray/House can man a 3 man rotation if needs be with the other players providing situational defense when needed.

I certainly don't think Scal will get much run at all though. I think he's an security blanket at the 3 if the others don't prove themselves worthy. This is actually a good thing, since he can defend and give the Pierce/Ray/House trio the veteran support it may need situationally. So in actuality, I see quality veteran coverage at the wing. The true lack of veteran coverage is in the frontcourt, but I think the talent there is more proven-outside of POB-so there is a symetry to it.

Inconsistent Rotations:  I don't think there's any way that Doc, or any coach, could have a set rotation with this roster, at least immediately.  House and Powe have probably "earned" minutes (although Doc wasn't in love with either player in last year's playoffs), and Tony seems to be a good bet to have a spot in the rotation.  From there, nobody has consistently shown anything.  There are a lot of players at about the same level, and there is a lot of overlap between the various positions.  With so little differentiation between the players, I think it will be a real challenge in fitting guys into defined roles.

I agree somewhat, but not completely. I think there certainly IS a projected depth chart right now. Ainge intimated as much when he said "we have our top 8 guys" during the TA/House signing. I think its the starters plus Powe/TA/House. I think that is a solid 8 man rotation, but I do think that the spots are open for review and competition throughout TC and the beginning of the season. I think that Doc will use different guys and see who pans out, but only IF the top 8 aren't getting it done. I don't think we'll see musical chairs from jump street, and I don't think we saw that AT ALL last season. The rotation was fairly etched in stone until injury and ineffecitveness opened up the opportunity for Powe to step in...nobody else really got looks.

Mass substitutions:  This one scares me a bit.  While I think the problems created by not having enough vets and the lack of size on the bench are issues Doc has no control over, the management of substitution patterns will fall squarely on Doc's shoulders.  Last season, Doc demonstrated a pattern of playing four or five bench guys at the same time.  I think if he attempts to do that this year, the team is going to get murdered.  Simply put, there isn't a group of four guys off of the bench that I'd be comfortable with having in the game at the same time.  The bench guys are just too young and inconsistent, and they don't necessarily complement one another's talents well. 

This is something I just can't be concerned with. If something isn't working Doc won't do it. Even if your amongst the people who still think he's brainless, Ainge and others will surely intervene. As long as the players are present on the roster, they'll figure out a way to use them.

Does that mean the team is doomed?  No.  However, what it does suggest is that Doc needs to be very conscious of making sure that he has a better mix of starters and bench players on the floor at the same time this year.  Not only will that provide for better results on the court, but it will also aid in the young guy's development.  Bill Walker will be more successful playing alongside KG and Rondo than he will be next to Patrick O'Bryant and Eddie House.  Tony, as mentioned before, is most effective when playing with the starters.  I'm sure that will be the case with any of the young players.  I think it's very important that Doc keep two of the "big three" on the court at all times, or at the very least make sure there are two starters in the game.  There are enough minutes to accomplish this, so it will be on Doc's shoulders to bring it to fruition.

I don't see why Doc is not capable of this, so I don't fret over it. I might be wrong though, its just my feeling.

From my perspective, this off-season hasn't been ideal.  However, at this point, things aren't going to change significantly, so it's time for the team to start thinking about the adjustments that need to be made.  I'm fairly sympathetic to Doc, as the roster isn't a great fit for his coaching style.  That being said, he's going to have to make the proper adjustments to put this team in an optimum position to succeed.  I don't envy him, but if there are some growing pains at the beginning of the season, I think we should all remember the situation Doc has been put in, and try to be sympathetic before criticizing him too much.  (That being said...  growing pains are only acceptable if there is growth.  Let's hope that Doc makes the adjustments he needs to to get this team to where it needs to be.)

[billysan]

To simplify, may the best man (men) from the bench win after the starters. My problem with this is that for much of the seasons first few months, we will be seeing what certain guys can do.

Starting with Pruitt, Tony Allen and JR Giddens in the backcourt,  each will get an opportunity to play. Probably based on training camp and preseason performance to see who goes first or fills which role.

Darius Miles, Bill Walker and Scalabrine will get the same shot at SF in that order while Powe, Davis and POB will see minutes at the 4/5. I dont think Danny will make us live with these three too long if we are being mauled.

By January, we will start to see a fairly regular rotation with Danny acting by the trade deadline to shore up any glaring weakness he can while simultaneously trying to acquire a 'spark' veteran player for the playoffs.

While I understand your point(s) Roy, I think we need to remember two things. First off, as long as we dont get a serious injury we can win with this roster. Second and most important is that as long as we are winning a bunch of games we will stick with the current group. The only change that will occur in the second instance is if Danny has a chance at a home run type pickup. Even then, I am not sure he will upset the apple cart if we are Winning.

Last year we all looked for holes and saw leaks at times. We added PJ Brown and Sam Cassell. PJ was a big factor in the playoffs, Sam was not IMO. Even with losing Posey (huge) we dont know what these guys will do until we see them for a few games. We have to see if there are indeed leaks before we can fix them. 

We could see a couple of these new additions really step up or we could see a complete bench collapse. Either way we could be a 60 win team, but winning in the playoffs looks very bleak with a poorly constructed bench  and that's my biggest worry. Just winning.

[hwangjini_1]

given RH's excellent analysis, it seems that no single player replaces posey. however, doc will probably give tony allen a lot of rope and opportunity to prove himself as some sort of posey-light.

last season doc clearly liked mass-substitutions, but just as clearly doc liked the idea of a consistent 6th man - posey. i like allen and i hope he can fill the roll of 6th man. i dont think or want him to be "posey" since he has a different skill set. however, i have doubts as to whether allen be consistent enough to fill in for posey.

if allen does become the consistent 6th man doc had in posey, that means doc will have to intelligently analyze matchups and ingame flow and use the celtics' bench player who will be most effective in a specific game/situation.

i dont have much faith doc will effectively do this over the course of a season.

posey was good enough that doc did not have to worry all that much about initial substitutions.... posey was the first person off the bench in the vast majority of games. pierce have fouls? put in posey. allen comes out early? put in posey. perk gets 3 fouls in 67 seconds? no problem, put in posey.

this upcoming celtic team will be more of a challenge for doc to manage the bench since no single, clear-cut 6th man is there.

i hope allen can become the 6th man, but i have doubts.

i hope my evaluation of docs handling of the bench is dead wrong and that he will thrive with a bench that is deep, but lacks a clear 6th man.