One thing I want to chime in on regarding mock draft positioning and perceived talent is that so, so, so many of the mock drafts that come out are based on the opinion that the teams will choose based on need and not based on best available talent.
Hence, many, many, many times tons of big guys are projected high in the draft because good big man talent is so hard to find. The same holds true for other positions during other years.
So the point I think I'm trying to make is that saying that someone had top 15-20 pick talent based on mock drafts that year is a load of crap. That doesn't mean that that person was a top 15-20 talent. It only means that during that year based on needs of teams, he was projected to go somewhere between 15-20.
Heck that doesn't even get into the quality of any given draft. The year Kenyon Martin went #1 that draft class was awful from a quality standpoint. Saying that someone drafted that year in the top 10 had more talent than someone who was drafted 10-20 in 2007 would be ridiculous as the 2007 class was loaded with talent and the year KMart came out it wasn't.
So I think it is very deceptive to make the claim that we got a lot more talent based on where two guys were drafted and where two other guys were once perceived to be drafted.
POB was drafted high in a draft with bad big men. Miles was rightfully drafted high but is now severely injured. Much of his talent was based on his athleticism. If his athleticism is hampered by injury then obviously he must right now be much less talented than he once was. The same holds true for Walker. Who cares where his talent was once perceived to position him in a certain draft years ago. Right now his injury which hampers his athleticism which hampers his talent puts him at a 2nd round draft talent and there are only so many truly good talents that come out of the second round.
My point ultimately being, everyone has talent. Everyone may have been rated higher talent wise than they currently are. But what matters isn't what they were once rated at talent wise it is where they currently are talent wise. And currently, talent wise, they are all a lot worse than once perceived and it is possible those perceptions were wrong.
So let's stick with what we actually know about these guys and what we currently know is that one guy is one of the very few top 10 picks ever not to be given a qualifying offer after their second year. Another we know has been declared physically unable to ever perform again in the NBA by several doctors. Yet another we know had great upside but is now a 2nd round rookie draftee that just finished getting his third major knee surgery. And yet another was on three separate college teams and was a problem child on all three but put up some okay numbers, finally at a mid major conference and has yet to prove he can be a consistent good team mate.
For me, that's just not a lot to be positive about when looking at the off season moves.
I still think this team is the team to beat. But that has more to do with position 1-8 on the roster and not from who will be taking up positions 9-15 on the roster.
...the key phrase is "what we know"...don't you think that Ainge has a bit more access to more detailed and more vital information on these guys, or are you convinces that these were "desperate moves" made because Ainge "struck out" on getting the players he "really wanted."
I don't rely on 2nd hand information for assessing players and Ainge sure as hell doesn't...the team invests millions in its players and hundreds of thousands in scouting analysis...they didn't "gamble" on all of these guys as much as most are making out...
...and all these guys were considered high-upside players at one point because of their elite physical ability...the digression of that perception to its current state has everything to do with factors aside from raw physical prowess and its pretty obvious if you look at it. Miles, POB, Walker, and Giddens are elite level athletes who all impressed on the court sometime in the not-so-distant past...the fact that they all weren't drafted higher or retained, or whatever has a ton to do with issues aside from talent and simple google search can show you what was being written about these guys locally and nationally...
If they were as mediocre as many are making out, Ainge wouldn't have taken them over safer, more low-risk alternatives...there were TONS of other players available at 30 who came with less perceived risk and there were many free agents that could have been had if the team felt like parting with more than the minimum--which it surely would have done if it felt ALL the acquisitions were so risky and limited in potential...
...its just illogical to assume that such risk was taken on such low-level talent...you don't take big risk without the potential for big reward...
Here is the key phrase that throws some water on the fire that is your position.
"If they were as mediocre as many are making out, Ainge wouldn't have taken them over safer, more low-risk alternatives"
Why is it a given in your mind that they aren't mediocre simply because Danny Ainge decided to take a chance on them? Why is it that in your mind Danny Ainge and his staff is beyond the ability to be wrong when gauging a player's readiness, talent, or lack thereof? I think that he put so much faith into players the caliber of Raef LaFrentz, Mark Blount, Jiri Welsch, Orien Greene, Gerald Green and various others is proof that Danny Ainge's ability to gauge talent and make moves should be questioned.
I don't particularly care what stats or numbers or decisions that Danny has or has made. Is he more qualified to make those decisions? Yes. Does it mean that he is infallible and that I and others are wrong? No.
Nick, with all due respect, you keep taking names and not looking at the context of the decision to acquire them:
LaFrentz: post-knee surgery had just had his best season as a pro. then he got signed to a long term deal by Dallas and lost playing time the following year to Dirk Nowitzki, who had just broken out as a player. LaFrentz wanted out, as did Antoine Walker. the team's salary cap situation wasn't going to allow Ainge to simply let Antoine go for nothing in exchange because they couldn't replace him on the FA market.
Instead of bowing to Walker's contact extension demands, Ainge traded him for a F/C who was a season removed from having his best year. Raef was smart, could shoot from the perimeter, run half-court offense from the high post, and his deal didn't exceed the current length of time the Celtics would be over the cap, so it didn't effect the team's ability to pursue free agents.
Ainge knew he didn't have close to a contender, so he took the chance on Raef's knee and got 2 out of 3 solid years from him before moving him for a shorter deal and a prospect, (Ratliff, Telfair)...Raef wasn't a "mistake" that cost the team anything, he was a calculated risk in the greater scheme of his rebuilding-while-remaining-competitive plan, and provided steady veteran leadership on the court and in the locker room until his time was past.
Jiri Welsch was a part of the Raef deal, coming off a brilliant summer league performance. Many teams were intrigued by him at the time, but he was hardly a make-or-break part of the trade. Good prospect with solid upside who had little impact on anything, nor was he the primary target of Ainge and being counted on for anything much more than increasing the talent pool-an asset that led to a Cleveland 1st rounder, which turned into Delonte West, which in turn helped facilitate the Ray Allen deal....piece of the puzzle, not some "whiff" on talent that had to be "fixed" later.
Mark Blount was a FA the year Ainge came in and took over-he had to rely entirely on reports form incumbent GM Chris Wallace, and up until he was re-signed, Blount was one of the hardest workers on the team, a self-made pro who was admired and respected by the team. Ainge was also under tremendous pressure to retain Blount, after Jim O'Brian quit,the public outcry was definingly in favor of re-signing Blount. Based on the reports on his work ethic, his production that season, and the demand for him to be retained, Ainge signed him....we all know how Blount acted after that. Ainge never misjudged his talent, he didn't have time to study Blount's character and it cost him. Even then, Blount was still just a piece, one that Ainge thought would hold value enough to move,which he did later in the Davis/Wally deal.
Orien Greene and Gerald Green are already well-documented. Gerald was never evaluated by the Celtics because he was projected top 5 all year. When he fell, they took him. Relative to what was available at 18 it was the right decision. Hakim Warrick would have been nice, but Ainge was already targeting Ryan Gomes, who was more polished and a surer thing. Ainge saw that he could get both Gomes and Green in the draft, thus increasing his pool of assets yet again, and he did so.
Orien was picked in the DEEP in the 2nd round. He was a highly decorated HS player who was forced to play SG/SF at Florida. As a long shot late in the 2nd round Ainge gave a promise-his last of his tenure-and tried to get out of it when he saw that Amir Johnson was going to slip to him. Couldn't get out of the commitment, but again, we're talking about a pick in an area of the draft where almost nobody sticks...Johnson is the only player worth anything from that spot on in that draft.
No, Ainge is not infallible, but every move he's made had been made with the purpose of moving toward building a champion and very few of his moves have not helped to further that cause. Some moves haven't paid the dividend expected-Blount, Banks, LaFrentz-but the "worst case" factored into each still allowed for Ainge to move those players for better "chips" that helped to perpetuate his goal of building a winner, so I find it hard to argue with his results.
...and when it comes to evaluating young and unproven players like O'Bryant, Walker, Giddens--his track record is perhaps unparalleled in the league...Ainge hits the nail on the head with rookies at like an 80+ percent clip, and i consider O'Bryant to be a de-facto "rookie" because of his lack of playing time in the NBA.
Topic: At times, hard to stay positive over the off season moves (Read 95613 times)