Can and will the Sox overtake the Rays?

[nickagneta]

The Rays came back from the dead in their last at bat once again and pulled out a second straight victory versus tha LA Angels tonight. No Crawford, no Longoria, and Kazmir not being Kazmir recently by not getting past the fifth inning but one time in his 5 starts and yet this team just keeps pulling out improbable wins.

I love the way the Sox have been playing since the Manny trade with the team going on a 11-5 run which if things stay as they are will be 12-5 very shortly. Manny disappearance seems to have put a spark into this team with Ellsbury getting out of his funk, Pedroia and Youkilis hitting the cover off the ball, Lowrie showing himself to be a real Major League shortstop and Bay being just a great replacement for Manny. The Sox have also overcome the injuries of Lowell and Wakefield fairly well as well as the funk that Drew seems to be in.

So as both teams start to kick it into gear for the stretch run, does Boston have the pitching and experience and better schedule to overtake the Rays or is this Rays team just having one of those very special years that teams have once every decade or two that makes MLB such an appealing sport. It is just the easiest sport to go from horrible to great and is the sport where experience matters least in winning a title.

I thik it's going to be a great pennant race with all five teams that are in it pushing for positioning and playoff spots.

My predictions are that the Sox win the East, Minnesota the Central, LA the West and the Rays take the wild card.

[MBz]

It could happen, the Sox have 6 games left with the Rays, so you never know.  I do think it'll come down to the wire though.

[BigAlTheFuture]

I don't think they will, but there is always a chance. If these two teams meet in the playoffs, though, I think the Red Sox will beat them

[Redz]

The Rays have tons of pitching depth and that will keep them afloat.  Wheeler and Balfour have stepped up big time in the pen for them each and every time Percival has gone down.  They definitely seem like a team that believes in themselves.  The sweep they had over the Sox in the first half was probably the biggest series in franchise history.  Going out to Anaheim and beating the Angels in some tight games is big too.  It's exciting to see them step up.  I'm looking forward to seeing how they handle the pressure cookers with the Sox. 

[Roy Hobbs]

I don't see it.  The Rays will win the division, and the Sox should win the wild card.

[Donoghus]

The Sox overcoming the Rays in the AL East certainly isn't outside the realm of possibility.  It'll be interesting to see how this young team handles itself down the stretch of September.  So far, this season, they haven't backed down to any challenge.  As Redz mentioned, they have the pitching to carry them and that's huge.  At the same time, Madden shouldn't overpitch these guys so they're gased by the playoffs.  Lots of uncertaintly with young "never been there before" teams but these Rays seem to strike me as the type that'll hold up strong.  I'd love to see the collapse but my gut tells me that the Rays probably pull off the AL East and Sox grab the wild card.

[Mean Gerald Green]

It's doable...the 6 games with the Rays will really decide everything. I keep waiting for the Rays to bring up David Price. He's scary good and would be a formidable addition to their rotation. Let's hope they don't.

[lon3lytoaster]

I think they'll need to sweep the Rays in what's left of regular season play to win the division. Tampa never loses those games we need them to lose.

[SportsCapNative]

The Rays are beast right now. They're playing very well and are on the verge of overtaking the Angels (they're only a 1/2 game behind in the AL). From the looks of things, we're going to be chasing the Angels in the AL. But as far as the AL East, I think it's possible. If we can win at least 5 of the 6 games with them we'll be fine. Sweeping the Rays would really make a statement though 

I'm still happy with the Sox thus far. We're third in the AL, only 4 1/2 games behind Anaheim and 4 behind the Rays. If they keep playing at this pace (only loosing 5 out of 11) we will get the wildcard OR win the division, either of the two will happen.

[Jon]

I think if both teams are healthy, the Sox are the better team; however, while both teams have the injury bug now, the Sox have been hit harder with it throughout the entire season.  There's little doubt in my mind that if Papi hadn't missed a month and a half, the Sox would have the best record in baseball.  And that's not even taking into account Lowell's injuries, Manny tanking it, and the short DL trips of Dice-K and Wakefield. 

So in my mind, a lot of this comes down to how healthy the Sox can be over the next month+.  If Drew, Lowell, and Wake all come back in the next week or two and Beckett's numbness is just a minor issue, I think the Sox can overtake the Rays. 

Think of it this way too: would you think a 4.5 game lead was enough for a team to clinch the division at the All Star Break in the NBA?  Because that's essentially what we have here with the Sox having 36 games left, just a shade under 1/4 of the entire season. 

[crownsy]

we'll overtake them....in the ALCS 

[Redz]

One hot streak, coupled with one cold streak.  Look at what happened the week preceding the All Star break.

 

[Roy Hobbs]

If the Rays play slightly over .500 the rest of the way (19-18) the Sox will need to win 63.9% of their remaining games (23-13).  That's certainly do-able, but it would take a pretty significant collapse from the Rays, and very good baseball from the Sox.

If the Rays finish the season at their current .616 clip, they'd finish with 100 wins, meaning the Sox would need to go 27-9 (.750) to catch them.  I don't see that happening.

[Redz]

If the Rays play slightly over .500 the rest of the way (19-18) the Sox will need to win 63.9% of their remaining games (23-13).  That's certainly do-able, but it would take a pretty significant collapse from the Rays, and very good baseball from the Sox.

If the Rays finish the season at their current .616 clip, they'd finish with 100 wins, meaning the Sox would need to go 27-9 (.750) to catch them.  I don't see that happening.

The numbers make it look tough, but baseball works in strange ways.  There's no "hotter" team than a hot baseball team and no "colder" team than a cold baseball team.  Look at the Rockies and Mets cases last year.

I'm not saying I think the Sox will win the division or the Rays will tank, just that it's still only one hot or cold streak's difference.

[crownsy]

If the Rays play slightly over .500 the rest of the way (19-18) the Sox will need to win 63.9% of their remaining games (23-13).  That's certainly do-able, but it would take a pretty significant collapse from the Rays, and very good baseball from the Sox.

If the Rays finish the season at their current .616 clip, they'd finish with 100 wins, meaning the Sox would need to go 27-9 (.750) to catch them.  I don't see that happening.

I think tampa will hang on, im actually much more worried about the whitesox in the WC race atm.

As i said, not real concerned with the rays if we see them in the ALCS, confident we'll overtake them thier 4-2.

The numbers make it look tough, but baseball works in strange ways.  There's no "hotter" team than a hot baseball team and no "colder" team than a cold baseball team.  Look at the Rockies and Mets cases last year.

I'm not saying I think the Sox will win the division or the Rays will tank, just that it's still only one hot or cold streak's difference.